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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Airborne quite probable in my opinion.

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Elver View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 06 2014 at 11:12pm
"A total of eight people in Nigeria who were in direct contact with a man who flew to Lagos and died of Ebola now have symptoms of the dreaded and deadly disease and have been placed into quarantine, a Nigerian health official said."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11304623

I doubt that all 8 passengers had contact with his "BODILY FLUIDS"!

I wonder exactly how 8 people had "direct contact" What do they mean by "direct contact".

It seems highly likely that those 8 people contracted Ebola by "CASUAL CONTACT", SUCH AS SITTING NEXT TO HIM ON THE AIRPLANE!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 2:49am
It really wouldn't be too hard for fomites (contaminated surfaces) to infect eight people on a flight. If he was as sick as reports claim, he undoubtedly went to the restroom at least once and contaminated that, and I'm sure he wasn't the only one using it.
And if it's airborne - why only eight (if they are confirmed and not just suspected)?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 3:50am
well how big was the plane and how many passengers would be the first question?

and in John Preston's"HOT ZONE " There is mention of an airbourne EBOLA'

EBOLA and that book really got me hooked on pandemic viruses ,

EBOLA airbourne  is my worse nightmare.......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 5:01am
EBOLA IS NOT AIRBORNE
It can be spread by droplet infection but this only works in close quarters.  Even the ebola reston (which does not affect humans) that transferred from pigs to monkeys did so because it was in a confined space.

This is not to say that it cannot travel by air.  It can.  However it cannot travel far, or encyst to remain active in the air for long periods (like colds and flu can).  Also, it does not specifically irritate the mucus membranes making you cough and sneeze.

To sum up:    Ebola can travel a few feet by air.
Airborne disease can travel tens of miles by air.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 5:20am

Transmission of Ebola virus (Zaire strain) to uninfected control monkeys in a biocontainment laboratory

N. Jaax DVM *P. Jahrling PhD , T. Geisbert , J. Geisbert , K. Steele DVM , K. McKee MD , D. Nagley , E. Johnson PhD , G. JaaxDVM , C. Peters MD

The Lancet, Volume 346, Issue 8991, Pages 1669 - 1671, 30 December 1995
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(95)92841-3Cite or Link Using DOI

Abstract

Secondary transmission of Ebola virus infection in humans is known to be caused by direct contact with infected patients or body fluids. We report transmission of Ebola virus (Zaire strain) to two of three control rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) that did not have direct contact with experimentally inoculated monkeys held in the same room. The two control monkeys died from Ebola virus infections at 10 and 11 days after the last experimentally inoculated monkey had died. The most likely route of infection of the control monkeys was aerosol, oral, or conjunctival exposure to virus-laden droplets secreted or excreted from the experimentally inoculated monkeys. These observations suggest approaches to the study of routes of transmission to and among humans.
United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases Frederick, Maryland 21702-5011, U.S.A.
Corresponding Author Information Correspondence to: Dr N Jaax
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 5:34am
It almost comes down to how we're defining airborne.  I tend to agree with techno on those points.  I would even take it a step further and say it's airborne to a degree,  but with a limited reach and not like that of a flu virus.  A sneeze from the flu might travel significantly farther than Ebola based on the size of droplets, etc...  but both can infect people via air droplets.  The distance is the difference. It also seems they both can survive on surfaces for nearly the same amount of time, which could be a disaster in itself.  

Now, if someone on a plane had the flu, I would expect them to maybe infect 10 others or so, somewhat like Ebola did.  If you're in a closed confined space like a plane, living room, etc.... it may transmit similar as the flu by air or on surfaces.

The black death plague was spread in close contact and managed to circle the globe one continent at a time like a big wave.   If you have a cluster of several thousands, that wave will continue to slowly move and might be impossible to stop.  It might not have to be efficiently airborne to cause a pandemic, again as in the 1300's with the plague/pandemic.   Asia is probably about to have a really rough ride.   In a text book pandemic, air travel is our nemesis.  In this case if used right, and air travel controlled,  this could probably be confined.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 5:38am
Hi guys, it has been a long time since i have posted, but my logic hairs are standing straight up...

if one can get infected by "body secretions" (blood,sweat,saliva etc.) Even secretions left on a surface such as a table, chair or other surface,then how is it not possible for coughing,sneezing or droplets of fluids projected through the air, landing on surfaces or being inhaled by other people not considered "airborne transmission?"

If the virus can survive for extended periods of time in droplets of sweat on chairs, or a door knob, how come it cannot survive for a few seconds or more in the air?

Correct me if i am wrong, but how is the ability of a virus to survive outside of the host in expelled fluids NOT capable of airborne transmission?

Everything I am reading points to accelerated/ increased and more efficient transmission.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 5:45am
Spot on Boss.  On a plane droplet/airborne is definately a moot point, though it does affect the bug-out/bug-in decision hugely. 

The RO number of 8.6 is nasty too. 

The most worrying thing of all, to me, is the aparent lack of comprehension of the seriousness of this outbreak within the corridors of power.  Spot on again about the black death:  "Those who do not learn the lessons of history are forced to repeat them.".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 8:15am
It is my understanding that half of the eight are his doctor and the three nurses he deliberately urinated on. (Tàlk about "airborne".) As far as I know, it has not been said where the other four cases came from except the same city he landed. But if from the plane, it is easy to comprehend that they all came in physical contact with surfaces that he also came in contact with. And if that is the case and it is that contagious, like so many other common bugs, make no mistake about this, it will flourish here and everywhere quite well. It must be stopped there first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 9:17am
A few feet or.or a few miles means nothing to the people that are getting it.If you can get this from a person who sneezed or caughed in the same room then why not call it air borne. So people can be aware
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 9:36am
I would not wanting to be holding any Airline stock right now. This may be a rough ride because people will get this they will travel and we will have clusters. Our medical system I do not believe is ready for this but will have to do it's best.

If Ebola really never gets truly Airborne it will be controllable in the "Western World" but a bigger killer in Third World countries. Let's keep cool heads because I know I have a lot of people who depend on me for good information and I don't want to sound an alarm when none is needed.
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This airborne debate is not necessary. It makes no difference. The fact that one person infected eight should speak for itself. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 10:19am
Airborne (a), Airborne (b)...? Airborne (b) having proven but limited transmissibilities? Both "Airborne" but a distinction. But as Dan just said, explain that to the dead.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 10:20am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

This airborne debate is not necessary. It makes no difference. The fact that one person infected eight should speak for itself. 



I agree.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 10:25am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

This airborne debate is not necessary. It makes no difference. The fact that one person infected eight should speak for itself. 

  Ro8!

The "airborne" debate is admittedly irrelevant if you are in the same room or on a plane.  But, if you are deciding wether to bug-out or bug-in it is VITAL.  In life-or-death situations, ignorance may be bliss, but only for a very short while.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2014 at 11:33am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

...ignorance may be bliss, but only for a very short while...


Hey, it's always worked for me Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2014 at 4:56pm
‘Don’t Touch the Walls’: Ebola Fears Infect an African Hospital
KENEMA, Sierra Leone — So many patients, nurses and health workers have died in the government hospital that many people in this city, a center of the world’s worst Ebola epidemic, see it as a death trap.

Now, the wards are empty in the principal institution fighting the disease. Ebola stalks the city, claiming lives every day, but patients have fled the hospital’s long, narrow buildings, which sit silent and echoing in the fading light. Few people are taking any chances by coming here.

“Don’t touch the walls!” a Western medical technician yelled out. “Totally infected.”

Some Ebola patients still die at the hospital, perhaps four per day, in the tentlike temporary isolation ward at the back of the muddy grounds. But just as many, if not more, are dying in the city and neighboring villages, greatly increasing the risk of spreading the disease and undermining international efforts to halt the epidemic.

“People don’t die here now,” said the deputy chief of the hospital’s burying team, Albert J. Mattia, exasperated after a long day of Ebola burials. “They are dying in the community, five, six a day.” Mr. Mattia was particularly disturbed that many of the bodies his team were putting in the ground had come from outside the hospital, thwarting attempts to isolate patients and prevent them from passing the disease to others

“It’s very, very dangerous, very hazardous; it is contributing to the Ebola dead,” he said as his two deputies nodded glumly in agreement. “You go to the wards, there are no patients.”

Containing the virus in Kenema — one of the nation’s largest cities and a gateway to an area of the country where the disease is rampant — is critical to taming the epidemic’s deadly advance across parts of West Africa. More than 930 people, including over 280 here in Sierra Leone, have died since the outbreak was first identified across the border in Guinea in March.

Since then, Sierra Leone has been hit with more cases of the disease than any other nation — 691out of 1,711 at last count — and the hospital in Kenema quickly became a focal point in the effort to grapple with the epidemic when the government set up a treatment center here for cases in the region.

International health officials have concentrated intensively on the hospital in the last several days, training health care workers, preparing a more secure isolation ward, establishing the rigorous separation of zones — low risk, high risk — that characterizes the tightly sealed Doctors Without Borders Ebola facilities elsewhere in stricken West Africa.

But it is a tough struggle, and the recent history of the hospital looms. More than 20 health care workers at the hospital have died trying to battle the disease over the last several months, including nurses, support staff and the country’s leading doctors

 Related in Opinion

“There’s a perception in the population that it is a dangerous place,” said Philippe Barboza, an epidemiologist who heads the World Health Organization team here. “ ‘The farther one is from the hospital, the better,’ ” said Mr. Barboza, summing up the widely held sentiment. “Even to have a meeting here is difficult.”

Elsewhere in the region, the battle against the disease is equally difficult. Dr. Fazlul Haque, the deputy representative of Unicef in Liberia, said health workers were struggling to keep up with the rapidly growing number of cases. Some hospitals are closed, he said, in part because health workers are afraid of getting sick — 63 health workers in Liberia have been infected so far, he said, with more than 30 deaths.

In the past week alone, about six medical staff members at a Catholic hospital in the Liberian capital, Monrovia, and 23 health workers in Bong County were infected, he said.

Liberia’s president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, declared a state of emergency this week, calling it necessary “for the very survival of our state and for the protection of the lives of our people.” The government has already quarantined some communities, including parts of western Liberia to stop the spread of the virus from Sierra Leone.

Dead bodies have been appearing on the streets and in houses throughout Monrovia, with people staging roadblocks to ensure that health workers remove them. But with hospitals closed in the capital, it was unclear how many of the victims had died of Ebola, or from other causes. A health worker said his burial team, one of 12, picked up seven bodies in Monrovia and surrounding areas on Thursday alone.

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There were no restrictions on those entering or leaving the Ebola screening tent at the government hospital in Kenema, Sierra Leone. Credit Tommy Trenchard for The New York Times

“Only two of the bodies were in houses, and the others were on the street,” the health worker said.

Here in Kenema, the hospital is fearsome even for the some of the newly arrived international workers who are hoping to turn it around.

“It’s pretty scary,” said Alexis Moens, a Doctors Without Borders logistician who was helping to set up the new, more secure isolation ward for Ebola patients.

“This is a dangerous place,” said Mr. Moens, adding that he washed his hands 50 times a day.

“There’s no system; there’s no isolation,” he said. “You make mistakes here, you get infected.”

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Erison Moussa Touray in the now-deserted men’s ward of the Kenema hospital. Credit Tommy Trenchard for The New York Times

On the streets of Kenema, a quiet provincial town at the foot of dark green hills, bisected by a main street of diamond merchants, there is distinct wariness about the hospital in the middle of town.

“That is where there is the most Ebola,” said Ibrahim Jalloh, 23. “Hardly any patients survive.”

He was playing a board game with friends on one of the town’s rutted dirt roads, before the 7 p.m. curfew imposed to discourage public gatherings that might contribute to the spread of the epidemic.

“We fear it because there is no medication there,” Mr. Jalloh added. Word that outsiders had come in to turn the hospital around was softening reservations, but they were still palpable.

“People are afraid of the hospital because you don’t know if you will meet up with a nurse who has it,” said Ibrahim Bah, 56.

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Disinfecting the hospital’s walls. Credit Tommy Trenchard for The New York Times

Because there is resistance to using the hospital, many of the patients who do come here wait until they are very sick and already highly contagious.

“We are still getting people in very advanced stages,” said Mr. Barboza

On Thursday morning, a corpse was brought out from the hospital’s front wing — Mohamed Boekarie, 36, who had been brought to the hospital Wednesday night from his village to die. He was wrapped in a black plastic body bag, carried on a stretcher by two of Mr. Mattia’s men, in full protective gear. They sprayed the bag with disinfectant as they carried it through the hospital.

The surviving hospital workers feel the stigma of the hospital acutely.

“Unfortunately, people are not coming, because they are afraid,” said Halimatu Vangahun, the head matron at the hospital and a survivor of the deadly wave that decimated her nursing staff. She knew, all throughout the preceding months, that one of her nurses had died whenever a crowd gathered around her office in the mornings.

At the edge of the tented isolation ward, relatives come to visit Ebola patients over a white plastic fence with a six-and-a-half-foot buffer. Erison Moussa Touray, 22, tossed a bag of clothes over the fence to his older sister, Aminata Saidu. He is an Ebola survivor; she is a patient, along with their mother, Bandu Touray. The two patients looked anxious, but they were at least able to greet him.

“I hope for my mother,” said Mr. Touray, explaining that he had lost 16 family members to Ebola. “She’s the only one I have left.”

“Sometimes I sit down, and I don’t know what will make me to courage,” he said in the English patois common here. “My father, my brothers, all have passed away.”

He shouted encouragements to his mother and sister across the fence: Eat more, drink more. He asked them what sort of food they wanted: fufu, a staple made from grain.

“From this illness, I am not comedy anymore,” said Mr. Touray, a clerk for the local magistrate’s court. “I am tragedy. Very tragedy.”

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950 1900 3800 7600 15200 30400 60800 ...,......

YOU'RE DEAD!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2014 at 6:16pm
Thats kinda scary
WHAT TO DO????
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On the subject of whether or not it's airborne.

http://conservativefrontline.com/ebola-mutation-confirmed-airborne/

Anyone know if this is a reputable site?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2014 at 10:58pm
Good post Pixie. I feel so sorry for those people. 

Two points I'd like to make: 

1. When you take a long haul flight you are asked to fill out a boarding card if you don't hold a passport for the country that you are landing in. In the past I have put meaningless info on that card because I have been intending to travel extensively. The card asks you for the address at which you will be staying. 

The idea is to be able to contact you should they need to. I've written all sorts of rubbish on those cards. Now I can't be the only person who's done that so how are the authorities going to be able to track down all the people who've been on a plane with an Ebola carrier?

2. I'm not at all surprised that people are keeping their relatives at home when they are really sick because if you know that most people die from it, why would you want to be separated from your loved one in their final hours. At least by keeping them home you know you can bury them as you wish. If they go to hospital and die then it's a plastic bag and an anonymous burial for them. 

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2014 at 3:52am
Originally posted by Elver Elver wrote:

950 1900 3800 7600 15200 30400 60800 ...,......

YOU'RE DEAD!


I did the same maths and came up with EXACTLY the same figures.  There is a 1/3 possible increase at each stage due to people in outlying areas, and people deliberately hiding their symptoms or allowing superstition to control their actions. 

As you are American, and presumably not 70 years old, I assume you did not have the training in the same cold war military facility covering biological warfare and accidents as I did.  However, you are probably aware that if the procedures that were in place in my time in Britain apply elsewhere, the procedure will be:

A, imposition of martial law.

B, The opening of quarantine facilities for suspected cases.

C, Paliative care for the confirmed infected.

D, Summary execution for those who escape or evade quarantine.

E, And finally mass incineration of the dead.

The recovery period in the event of successful control was expected to require forced labour of all those under retirement age and the removal of rations to all those over that age.  These were almost identical to those planned for the aftermath of nuclear war.

Of course all agencies should be aware that there was an opinion, widely held by the public at the time, that if  such an event did occur all governments and their agencies would be held to account in a peoples court of law. 

Unfortunately, as they have already proven, by the handling up to now, the world's governments, the UN, the WHO, etc. etc. have neither the intelligence, nor the understanding of mass psychology, to be capable of handling the situation. 

I exempt from that last statement the members of those organisations who contribute here.  After that "dog's dinner" there have to be some AFTers.

Ps. Daisy cutters clear areas verry well. Nuke
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2014 at 1:17pm
WillowbyBrat, that's very interesting. Particularly item B, the opening of quarantine facilities for suspected cases. Surely that would be a death sentence for anyone put into such a facility? If you don't have it then you'll get it from the ones who do have it. 

Also the forced labour of all under retirement age - I wonder how that would be policed? 

Very interesting indeed. 
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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