Defcon 4

Hello gang.  We're going to go ahead and raise the alert level to defcon 4.  This does not mean a pandemic is imminent, but there is obviously a significant looming threat.  The Saudi Arabia case indicates that it will most likely expand its reach very soon.

We may or may not ever go beyond that level with this, but I suppose time will tell.   I would anticipate being at level 4 for several months or at least until the virus is contained. 

Yeah, good move boss.

For this Ebola bug sheltering in place looks best (though not necessarily in an apartment block) as its air transmissibility is limited.

Ebola has a very high infectivity (in my opinion) I found a recent mathematical model giving it an Ro of 8.6 (though wikipedia rates it 1-4) smallpox is 5-7.  That, with its high CFR (fatality rate) means I close my doors wnen the first case hits my county.  Infection control measures of a lesser impact on daily life begin when it hits my country.  Meanwhile, we are amassing supplies and researching/planning NOW.

Ebola clearly has a very high Ro. If it is basically dissolving blood veins then it's got to be shedding at the very surface of the skin.

Myself I wouldn't shelter quite so quickly. For me I would wait until it had popped up locally. Otherwise it could mean a very long time in isolation, using up precious resources that may be needed when (if) it does show up locally.

I couldn't agree more with your sentiments, FluMom. This isn't the kind of thing I prep for, and I don't see it being a SIP event.

hachiban08 wrote: However I feel it is good to correctly inform people about Ebola as most of my friend on Facebook are starting to get weird paranoia without really looking at the facts with a clear and level-headed mind.

Yep - me too. I've posted a few times on FB after friends have started panicking (or referencing "Outbreak". Really?). It's going to be an uphill battle because so many media outlets want the most sensational spin to increase readership, and some of the stuff they're peddling is really start to scare people.
I just wish the alien zombies that took Elvis would let him go so we could find out the truth

I wish referring my friends to the group would help, but most enjoy taking the blue pill. Or say I am depressing them by giving them information. -_- I have told a few about us though and they lurk the pages at times. Then I have some friends who want the "zombie apocalypse" to happen.

That's a good idea. Someone should create an image with a comment so we can circulate it. With a share if you agree comment, etc...

KiwiMum-This is from the Canadian Safety Data sheet. It's from an earlier post by Elver.

SECTION IV - STABILITY AND VIABILITY

DRUG SUSCEPTIBILITY: Unknown. S-adenosylhomocysteine hydrolase inhibitors have been found to have complete mortality protection in mice infected with a lethal dose of Ebola virus (30).

DRUG RESISTANCE: There are no known antiviral treatments available for human infections.

SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebola virus is susceptible to sodium hypochlorite, lipid solvents, phenolic disinfectants, peracetic acid, methyl alcohol, ether, sodium deoxycholate, 2% glutaraldehyde, 0.25% Triton X-100, β-propiolactone, 3% acetic acid (pH 2.5), formaldehyde and paraformaldehyde, and detergents such as SDS (20, 21, 31-34).

PHYSICAL INACTIVATION: Ebola are moderately thermolabile and can be inactivated by heating for 30 minutes to 60 minutes at 60ºC, boiling for 5 minutes, gamma irradiation (1.2 x106 rads to 1.27 x106 rads), and/or UV radiation (3, 6, 20, 32, 33).

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

Albert wrote: That's a good idea. Someone should create an image with a comment so we can circulate it. With a share if you agree comment, etc...

For Facebook. you mean? I like it

sleusha, who is they? I don't think "they" exist. There is no central government / world order than can make that call. Individuals might think it's a good idea but no one can police it globally. The best that can happen is for an individual country to close it's own borders to all incoming traffic.

KiwiMum wrote: sleusha, who is they? I don't think "they" exist. There is no central government / world order than can make that call. Individuals might think it's a good idea but no one can police it globally. The best that can happen is for an individual country to close it's own borders to all incoming traffic. But just imagine what would happen to a country like the UK or the USA if the government made that call? It would have such an effect on the economy. It's not feasible either to monitor all travellers. When all long haul flights mean a stop over in some other country where other flights merge and passengers all change flights, it would impossible to filter out the safe from the non safe. You can't keep people in quarantine for 25 days unless you are a police state. No one in their right mind would voluntarily opt for 25 quarantine with a bunch of strangers, would you?  I agree with you that it is stupid to keep air travel open at this point and feel that with hindsight, authorities may well regret not shutting their borders before it reached their shores. There's no point in closing a border once Ebola has crossed it.

 that is why this has gotten out of hand, that is the excuse the governments in Guinea and Seirra Leone have given since April 2014.  I do not think it is time to panic quite yet, however the W.H.O. has said since April this was the worst it has seen since the 1995 outbreak they said at the time it was going to be hard to find the chain of transmission.  That was in April, doctor's without borders have been basically screaming since spring they need help, as of late July W.H.O. said they were setting up encampments (what that means I don't know).  The recent mass exodus of volunteers in that region reminds me of rats jumping ship.  That is why certain militaries  have gotten involved they were told, fix your own mess, but we'll give ya some money.

Turboguy,I would until the initial craziness is over and then go to your safe place. No one can over come a mob or beat one,wait until they are tired and some are dead,then move quickly and quietly.Once you start to move,do not stop for anything.From the way you talk you have a family.Get them to safety even if you have to hurt some people.Johnray1

She probebly means the UN. Which is really no more than a committee made up of many nations that already do not like each other. But in light of the threat I would think they would be calling an emergancy full session any minute now to at least figure out who of the members are capable of substantially providing resources and coordinance to stamp this outbreak out. They certainly are able to acomplish that with a war looming. Well this is a war.

I agree Jacksdad. This is a slow virus that the Western world can kill within their borders. I feel sorry for Africa they have a long hard battle.

jacksdad wrote: TG - I'm really not seeing this outbreak as a reason to lock the doors and SIP.

Meh, they haven't said that things are out of control in the United States either.

My temporary SIP will begin when they start saying, "Uh Oh..." Might that be too late? Perhaps. Hell, probably. But I'll know that things are major league out of control when it's pretty much "Grab what ye can boys!"

I'm a big proponent of the theory that "If you're not at your spot when the SHTF, you're not going to get there" but at the same time, no sense in going full chicken little. Realistically the time to close the borders was a month or two ago, and we should have militarized the southern one and had standing orders to shoot anyone trying to enter illegally.

A pandemic is imminent - its likely to occur at any time.

...180 grains in my case - hopefully they all stand behind each other in one long line so I can save some money.

Turbo,

look at Lagos for your answer.

Run down the timeline from the American Sawyer landing the timeline of the other infections, and watch for the spread...if it does.
What your looking for is unseen spreading that culminates in reported illness.

For instance, if we see widespread infection (in Lagos)within a week from now, then you can extrapolate.

the point is it looks like you have a few days from the time they get the first reported case in a city. Sawyer died July 25th....2 weeks ago, already the nurse has died and others are sick. The 21 day incubation period ends next friday.

If we see 20-30 or more infections in Lagos by next week then we know it is circulating today and yesterday, meaning yesterday could be to late to bug out.

I agree that it's inevitable that it will reach the U.S.  I'm guess probably sooner than later.  Somewhat hoping it reaches South America first so we have a little more time to prepare.   If it reaches here or South America then we'll go to defcon 5 as an Ebola Pandemic will be imminent, albeit a slow moving one that may not reek too much havoc on the U.S., but a pandemic non the less.   Defcon 5 will be a pretty significant warning that the time has arrived. 

With currently 2000 + cases in Africa and an outbreak this large, it could be at anytime.  

Also remember as you're out buying ammo lol, people will in fact begin to panic, SIP, etc.... and when that happens they will be searching all over the internet for info, and a large amount of the public will find their way here looking for it.  In that situation, you folks will be the experts they're look for.  You're not obligated to assist by no means, but actually you are! 

No it wouldn't give us much time.  I'm in Long Beach and you're in Sand Diego.  I suppose it has to get thru you first, lol.   We could also go to defcon 5 if it reaches other continents or regions first.

I'm a little surprised that Canada has had no suspected cases.  H5n1 showed up in Canada.  SARS hit Canada first, etc...  They're somewhat of a hot spot.   Usually it's Canada, London, New York/California or Mexico as the wild card.

Good job techno.

I'll be working on fixing and adding some things to ebolainfo.org.  The site is currently endexing with the search engines and is about to make a splashdown. With regarding to people searching online for info, that little site should dominate and really bring in a lot of new peeps soon.

Anyway, what helps improve the search engines and this effort is when links are posted on other sites.   If possible, maybe we can sneak a link on our facebook profiles, which will really kick start it.  Or on other forums, etc...  It's probably terrible for me to suggest that one, lol.

Turbo- .223 Rem?

Albert wrote: No it wouldn't give us much time.  I'm in Long Beach and you're in Sand Diego.  I suppose it has to get thru you first, lol.   We could also go to defcon 5 if it reaches other continents or regions first. I'm a little surprised that Canada has had no suspected cases.  H5n1 showed up in Canada.  SARS hit Canada first, etc...  They're somewhat of a hot spot.   Usually it's Canada, London, New York/California or Mexico as the wild card.

How I Longo for Dago! Gives me goose bumpsies.

Canada has probebly been more honest than us and Mexico...overly honest? Looking at the current infectious disease maps tracking of spread, Mexico and further south is on the radar. Just a hunch of mine.