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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Total Ebola Cases: 1975 cases / 1069 deaths

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 13 2014 at 4:37pm
This is actually picking up a bit.  I was thinking it might burn out, but apparently that was quite premature.


Date of report Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Nigeria
cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths
11 Aug 2014 1,975 1,069 510 377 670 355 783 334 12 3
9 Aug 2014 1,848 1,013 506 373 599 323 730 315 13 2
6 Aug 2014 1,779 961 495 367 554 294 717 298 13 2
4 Aug 2014 1,711 932 495 363 516 282 691 286 9 1
1 Aug 2014 1,603 887 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1
30 Jul 2014 1,440 826 472 346 391 227 574 252 3 1
27 Jul 2014 1,323 729 460 339 329 156 533 233 1 1
23 Jul 2014 1,201 672 427 319 249 129 525 224

20 Jul 2014 1,093 660 415 314 224 127 454 219

18 Jul 2014 1,048 632 410 310 196 116 442 206

15 Jul 2014 964 603 406 304 172 105 386 194

10 Jul 2014 888 539 409 309 142 88 337 142

8 Jul 2014 844 518 408 307 131 84 305 127

2 Jul 2014 759 467 413 303 107 65 239 99

24 Jun 2014 599 338 390 270 51 34 158 49

18 Jun 2014 528 337 398 264 33 24 97 34

10 Jun 2014 474 252 372 236 13 9 89 7

5 Jun 2014 438 231 344 215 13 9 81 7

2 Jun 2014 354 208 291 193 13 9 50 6

27 May 2014 309 200 281 186 12 9 16 5

23 May 2014 270 181 258 174 12 9



14 May 2014 245 164 233 157 12 9



5 May 2014 243 162 231 155 12 9



30 Apr 2014 233 153 221 146 12 9



23 Apr 2014 220 143 208 136 12 9



21 Apr 2014 215 136 203 129 12 9



17 Apr 2014 209 129 197 122 12 9



10 Apr 2014 169 108 157 101 12 9



7 Apr 2014 163 102 151 95 12 7



2 Apr 2014 135 88 127 83 8 5



1 Apr 2014 130 82 122 80 8 2



31 Mar 2014 114 70 112 70 2 0



27 Mar 2014 103 66 103 66





26 Mar 2014 86 60 86 60





25 Mar 2014 86 59 86 59

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 4:48pm
Guinea is full of doo doo with they're reporting of cases.   They're virtually the epicenter of the entire outbreak, but they never hardly have any new cases - along with never reporting any news whatsoever.  Major under reporting and news black out in Guinea.  They're lack of reporting is also probably responsible for the CFR being out of wack, which is probably closer to 90% instead of 55%. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 5:15pm

if I remember correctly

some time ago the government of Guinea 

came right out and said they would stop reporting on EBOLA cases


and back in March they actually stated that EBOLA was under control


if it is a government source

ANY government

you have to take it with a grain of salt

governments lie

that is what they do

examples are too numerous to mention

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 5:29pm
Roger that one Satori.  Good input. The numbers and size of Guinea definitely don't add up.  I stated  in another post showing the map, and mentioned that it darn near looked like Guinea was immune to the virus given how large Guinea is in comparison.  11 million people in Guinea, and it's twice the size of Sierra Leone at 5 million.  and Liberia at 4 million - Yet Guinea has by far the fewest cases? I'll have to call B.S. on that one, excuse the language lol.   Plus the absolute lack of any news out of Guinea.   It's not earth shattering, but if you do the math and compare it to the other countries Guinea is sitting at around 1200.  Unless it's an absolute bloodbath of some sort.  There's a lot of under-reporting going on across the board, and perhaps understandably so, but it's happening big time.  The inaccurate CFR is another reflection of the under-reporting taking place.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 7:50pm
There is no way of accurately forecasting the spread, infection rates and deaths in this ebola outbreak - too many variables and unknowns. and as Albert said a lot of bs being thrown around. I think the reported information is a good source to gauge trends but then you need to apply a multiplying factor to compensate for the variables, unknowns and bs.

The J curve produced by cobber, based on Albert's numbers is a good example of a starting point IMO.

What do we times it by?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 8:39pm
I agree Rick. Too many unknown numbers and even if all numbers were known there are still too many unknowns that could change the forecast drastically. However, just to juggle some numbers for nothing better to do at this moment, lets just assume the common theory of the true count being at or near a factor of four is accurate. It appearing now to me that the total reported cases are doubling every 25 days. If that trend were to hold true and steady with only minor interruptions, by February next year, one year after first reported cases, I come up with ~1,000,000 cases. By this time next year it is ~65,000,000 and by march of 2016, only two years after this began, the number is... ~8,000,000,000. Eight Billion! Or more than enough for all of us. For those who see this as a slow moving virus, it may seem slow right now but hold your breath because if something doesn't change pretty soon, the numbers in the next year may go off like a nuclear bomb.

Edit: oops -blame my iPhone. Tooo many zeros.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 9:54pm
There are better ways to predict what is going on than my j curve. There is modeling software which takes demographic variables into consideration. The WHO has that data. One big plus is that Ebola has also been studied extensively giving them very accurate data to plug into the models.  

I am a convert to following the WHO's lead. They have been very accurate in my experience. I once thought they published what the governments wanted them to say. Its just not the case. Having said that they are conservative with their language. 

Their recent language around Ebola however has been quite cutting which is a contrast to previous outbreaks. Its scary stuff..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2014 at 10:29pm
I will note that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2014 at 3:51am
I'm not going to blame the WHO too bad for the under-reporting, especially in Guinea.  When these countries don't want to report - the WHO and nobody will change their minds.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2014 at 8:12am



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 9:44am
I predict at least 2000 deaths before we see any move downward from this trend line. 

My other study is also showing that reproductions could actually be a little higher than whats presented here. Not much. I'm interested to see the next set of figures.

I'm expecting 1158 deaths as of the 16th Aug


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote atheris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:32am
1145... that was pretty close... presumably 13 are on streets or in bushes... sorry if i am sarcastic...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:49am
whats scary is WHO has access to better numbers than we do, I would bet their projections are just wicked. Thats why the put out the press release statement that they did.
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 10:58am
Good post Pheasant - and very true. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2014 at 12:02pm
We have a new member recently who is from one of the effected countries. I would be interested to hear from him some input as to what he is seeing and hearing on the ground there.
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