Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Get a Grip everyone |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Posted: October 09 2014 at 4:14pm |
By Michaeleen Doucleff
Holy moly! There’s a case of Ebola in the U.S.! That first reaction was understandable. There’s no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa. The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn’t quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital. But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep. “I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country,” said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden. Why is Frieden so sure this virus won’t spread beyond a handful of cases? It boils down to something called “R0.” https://richarddawkins.net/2014/10/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola/ |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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ENTROPY
V.I.P. Member Joined: July 19 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 171 |
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PLEASE GIVE US YOUR REAL ACTUAL NAME...JJD...
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EYE in the SKY
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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If no secondary cases of Ebola turn up in Dallas, it's because Duncan knew before he landed that he had it.
Ebola didn't magically become hard to catch.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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The RO is 2
pffft get a grip for god's sake The Africans wash the corpse of the dead family member and then the rest of the family drink the water - so Ebola spreads. The RO is 2 - its hard to catch for people who do not do strange things with the body. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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nc_girl
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 19 2006 Location: NC Status: Offline Points: 3968 |
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and yet Kilt, others have caught it by simply touching their face (Spain) or getting splashed (NBC camerman) or touching an arm (Bentley), etc.???
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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First wave of the Spanish flu was 1.8 What's your point? FYI, mourners eat and drink from common cup and bowl, as many cultures do. What is your information source for drinking corpse run-off? I have never heard of that. Oh yeah, and Ebola is still contagious, regardless of how well Mr. Duncan may have kept it to himself. pffftt back at ya.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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The reason we use the names we do is because most of us are preppers, and the smart ones do it under the radar. You don't your neighbors to know that you have the supplies they need in an emergency. Anonymity is respected here. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Get a grip Ebola is not that contagious.
All the hysteria about it is over reach. Its lies. The flu is the real deal https://richarddawkins.net/2014/10/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola/ |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Sure - of course. But only when the person was sick or dead. If this bug infected others before symptoms it would be a global killer but it doesn't. Its like SARS - only when symptomatic - but don't wash the body and then drink the water. Its a mess sure - because people do stupid things but its a storm in a tea cup
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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onefluover
Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151 |
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A Chinese tea cup?
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"And then there were none."
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Satori
Valued Member Joined: June 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 28655 |
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can anybody say when an ebola pt becomes contagious ??? eg the experts and MSM keep repeating that unless your running a fever your not contagious 38.6 centigrade is the # used so at noon I don't have a temp and am not contagious? but at 1pm I spike a fever so presto chango now I can spread it ? and I wasn't spreading it at noon or 11:30 ??? does that even make sense? but that is what we are being told sorry I've got a good imagination but it's not that damn good something ain't right here |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Kilt- You may be right or you maybe completely wrong about China, but on this subject I'm 100% in your corner! There has only been one (1) death from Ebola in the U.S. and it was an imported case! I'm considering buying stock in Reynold's Aluminum and Norcross hip waders! The misinformation and conspiracy theories are getting hip deep around here! Everyone needs to chill! Speculation and stories about suspected cases are not helpful!
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Buy more ammo!
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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Really good point. What's is the official temp have to be to be considered a fever? My daughter's pediatrician won't consider anything under 100.4 a fever. She's 10 so I'm sure he's different for infants or toddlers. But what if your temp is 99... is that a fever? Most people don't know what their baseline is, no one takes their temp when they aren't sick.
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Prairie One
Adviser Group Joined: August 03 2014 Location: North America Status: Offline Points: 1920 |
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I agree. I'm with you on this one Kilt. |
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Interested....
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ParanoidMom
Valued Member Joined: December 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1655 |
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Yep. One imported case and the entire event was handled like a monkey with a football. Patient died. Exposure to paramedics and law enforcement, along with quite a few others. If we learn absolutely nothing else, we certainly now know we aren't nearly as prepared as a nation as we thought we were.
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But the souls of the righteous are in the hand of the Lord
Wisdom of Solomon 3:1 |
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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Factors determining the altered spread (or not) of the virus are directly dependant on human activity. Will we contain it in W Africa? Will we see imports in other countries? That depends on us. That it did not result in more Dallas cases after the screw ups, is due to human activity (interpersonal contacts, contact tracing and containment measures), and a lot of luck. The virus is still contagious, still spreading, and still has a very high CFR. ..................................................................................................... You guys are entitled to opinions, but if I see another prejudicial comment about corpse-water drinking being presented as fact - I will delete it. |
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onefluover
Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151 |
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If the effected region goes total ebola then we can expect another 2,500 Duncans. If all of Africa goes Ebola then we can expect another 150,000. This of course is a very rudimentary calculation. It could be much lower or much higher but you get the picture. In any case there will be many more duncans to come.
The water comment was, uh, tasteless. |
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"And then there were none."
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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One person infected has infected one other.
Let us not get carried away - this virus is nowhere near as bad as Influenza. They will screen people coming in from Africa and stop it in the US. Flu is the one we should worry about.
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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Kilt2,
One person infected is currently infecting 2 people, that is exponential. Screening incoming flights involves temperature checks. Currently 80-90% infected have fevers. Those who do have fevers can take Tylenol. I do not gamble. If I did, I'd be betting on Ebola. That said, I am not a fear monger . I do believe the world can stop this... But the only way we're going to stop it is by facing the hard truths and using science to counter them. Downplaying the risk can only cause harm at this point. |
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wenmalon
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 19 2009 Status: Offline Points: 91 |
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I agree get a grip. Wow what a bunch of chicken littles.
If you are going to post something make sure irs true. This is not a race to see who can have the most posts or the fastest to pst something new. It was posted that Duncan was dead before he actually was. Isn't there a gate keeper here? Just one example. The rate of people dying from heart disease in this country is exponentially higher than Ebola. Just sayin. Being paranoid chicken littles is the last thing we need. People stopped listening to chicken little remember. |
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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wenmalon,
Yes, in North America, more people have died of heart disease than Ebola. Heart disease is not contagious, Ebola is. Do I need to elaborate? |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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wenmalon
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 19 2009 Status: Offline Points: 91 |
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Yes it is contagious. However heart disease still kills more people at a much more alarming rate.
My point is yes we need to be aware but all of these possible cases and little scares is going to cause a chicken little response. Why can't just actual cases be reported? Too much info to sift through. Unfortunately inaccurate reporting and bad info is doubly contagious. We need to keep our heads not lose it. Contagious or not. |
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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I in fact like the suspected cases to be reported. Still is informational to me. You don't like what you see don't read it, pretty simple... The site isn't all about you.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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You both have a point. It is a pain to have to sift through all the unconfirmed reports only to find that they are negative, but by the same token, when one does prove positive it is nice to have been the first to know. That could be a vital bit of information if you are resident nearby.
If anyone has a good idea about how to highlight the difference so we could see at a glance, please post it. Then we can please everyone. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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wenmalon
V.I.P. Member Joined: October 19 2009 Status: Offline Points: 91 |
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Kyle. You are right. Too much fiction. I will leave.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Whoa wenmalon! That is not necessary. We do get to the truth as soon as it is available. Give us a chance buddy. We do like to be first, but we like to be accurate too.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Guest
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All wenmalon was doing was trying to put things into perspective. I agree with wenmalon in that we don't need to be in panic mode but so much on here is not confirmed and suspected cases it's just going to put people on edge more. There is so much info on here and difficult to sort through the piles of suspected or unconfirmed cases. Why get alarmed for nothing. The Spanish nurse was reported dead a couple times on here. That is not accurate.
Why clobber and gang up on wenmalon as the person had valid points. The condescending remarks towards wenmalon were not necessary either. Don't blame he or she for leaving! |
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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wenmalon, I edited your post. I hope you understand. You said what you wanted with truth & facts on your side no need in calling any members out by name.
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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No one is blaming anyone for being here or leaving.
You guys are right.. There is more harm done with false information and media hype. Right now it is difficult to know what is true and what is not. That is why we are here. We are a collection of regular people from around the world who want to know the truth. Stay, and help everyone to know what that truth is. |
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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By no means are the suspected cases I post labeled as confirmed. I'm simply stating the suspected cases I find I post because it is vital information regarding a possible exposure. Sure most of them do end up being negative but I'd rather know ahead of mainstream media.
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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I personally like the reports also. I know that usually within a few posts someone will have either confirmed the suspected case or given report that it was negative. It only takes a few seconds to scroll down & see. One thing to consider... a journalist is NOT supposed to jump on a story just to be first with little to no evidence. They would be fired in a minute when it turns out to be false. A good source is a journalist best friend. But we are not journalists here. The members here are messengers. Work long hours researching news & posting with the intent to inform others. That's my take anyway. I am not a closed minded person though so I love hearing other people's points of view on it.
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onefluover
Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151 |
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Hello wenmalon. Nice try. We just had a discussion about this. It's one reason all of our ip's are listed. Anyways... Ebola is not the sky nor are we chickens. This is not a cartoon parody. Ebola is a real virus with ~90% CFR and it IS spreading alarmingly to say the least. If not stopped somehow, as sure as the sun sets it will encircle the globe. This is much more than just a fear. One way we, as the people on the street can keep track of it's spread is to find and post each and every last known case out of Africa including every case that later turns out to be a false alarm as they are only false alarms after their innitial discovery. Like Duncan, his nurse, the Spanish nurse and others, some of them proved not to be false alarms. We cannot toss them out as well in the name of not cluttering the board. To do so means we may as well turn off the computers and watch cartoons while this disease slowly creeps up on us... |
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"And then there were none."
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Penham
Chief Moderator Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
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It actually is news, the news stations/reports are reporting "suspected cases", the people here are just reporting what's out there. Yes, it maybe found a few hours later that it was a false report from a news update. I would still rather know.
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Penham
Chief Moderator Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
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Yes, the mods can see the IP you are posting from, it is highly discouraged to be posting under 2 different people. It can be grounds for termination of an account. However there are also some circumstances to be taken into account, such as two people possibly living in the same household using the same computer.
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Guests
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Look we have been through hype of one kind of flu or another. Ebola is no different however...most of us who prep are not prepped for this Bad Boy. I am getting ready just in case as all of you should be doing. If a nurse can't follow protocol how are regular people going to deal with this if the hospitals fill up or nurses and drs walk off to save their own lives like in Africa.
I pray that Ebola does not become wide spread here in the U.S. but at least I want my son to have a fighting chance to live just in case. So I prep now for Ebola. Will take me another week but I will have all the PPE for having to go out to get water and supplies if needed. I suggest we get a grip and get prepped. |
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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Excellent point flumom. Last year during the whole H7N9 and MERS outbreaks a lot of family thought I was nuts for always tracking this type of stuff. Now they rely on me to tell them the latest on Ebola. They finally realized that a global pandemic can and will happen at any moment whether it be Ebola, MERS, or some other new avian influenza.
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Ebola is NOTHING compared with Flu.
4,000 people have died of Ebola and its no problem. Sure a couple of others have got infected. So? Its not a problem Get a bloody grip
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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Kilt2,
If everyone in the world thought as you do, Ebola would have taken you out already. Be thankful if you get the flu. That'll be a cakewalk. |
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Germ Nerdier
Valued Member Joined: September 20 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3380 |
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4000 have died.... so far.
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onefluover
Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151 |
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Now let's all take our eyes off of that number as it continues to rise and rise and rise and let's go over and help make that other noted number rise and rise and rise. |
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"And then there were none."
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Ebola is NOTHING compared to the flu.
Mostly because it doesn't shed without symptoms - unlike the Flu. The reasons the Africans die is because when someone dies they wash the body and then the whole family drinks the water. When they come out of the stone age and stop that sort of behaviour, Ebola will not be such a problem there. You are like Chicken Liken - this is nothing compared to the flu - and it will be soon stopped. Get a grip for gods sake you girl.
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Jen147
Moderator Joined: March 23 2013 Status: Offline Points: 17144 |
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Chill out Kilt2. You can repeat "get a grip" all you want but can't you be a little nicer about it. Everyone one of those 4000+ didn't wash a dead body. Neither have the few who've gotten it outside of W. Africa.
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onefluover
Admin Group Joined: April 21 2013 Location: Death Valleyish Status: Offline Points: 20151 |
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Chicken Liken?
I don't get it. |
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"And then there were none."
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Elver
Valued Member Joined: June 14 2008 Status: Offline Points: 7778 |
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Get a Grip?
Perhaps you can't fathom just how dangerous this Ebola is to the entire world's population. Until you do, you have no idea what we're dealing with. |
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