what do you think the extent of MERS will be?

Update- MERS in SK now has infected 35 people, but no one else has died (thankfully) though 3 patients are in critical condition. This is troubling, due to the fact that according to WHO there has been no "Sustained Human to Human transition"

This could go either way, so I'm still not sure how to vote. Too many unknowns, and too early in the outbreak for me to call it.

I voted for 1,000 cases.  We know that similar coronaviruses (SARS) can spread like wildfire when they adapt to more efficient H2H transmission, and jet travel is the spark that lights the fire. 

Something to note is that approx 20% of all MERS cases are asymptomatic, with no symptoms.  Therefore the cases are approx 20% higher.  I would be interested to know if these "silent cases" are infectious at all for a period of time.   Could explain why Saudi Arabia failed to ever contain it.

I found this on an 2014 ECDC "Factsheet for health professionals". It's one of the only mentions of asymptomatic cases I could find. Notice it says there is no evidence of transmission but with the limited information coming out of the Middle East there's little evidence of anything! Hopefully S. Korea will be more forthcoming with case studies and research.


"The WHO advice on home care for patients with MERS-CoV infection presenting with mild symptoms and management of contacts is targeted towards public health and infection control professionals, health managers and healthcare workers. It states that evidence of transmission from mild cases is limited and that currently there is no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic cases."

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/coronavirus-infections/mers-factsheet/Pages/default.aspx

asymptomatic cases are less infectious simply because they're not coughing all over the place.  I'm sure it can be transmitted via saliva either way during a period of time.  Could be the "kiss of death" in some cases.   

Albert that is why I no longer date...no kissing...lol! Seriously, the medical people are so far behind my eye doc's secretary asked me if I had visited an Ebola area in the past 30 days.   We are in big trouble if we have a pandemic of any virus! Even our medical community has no idea how bad things can go bad fast except for our resident Dr. C!

At this rate I am starting to think about an epidemic. The cases per day in SK have gone from 2 to 5 to 9. There are be clusters popping up in Seoul and the government seems useless.

Not yet, Jen - but I think the next week will give us a better understanding. The recent quarantines should stop the spread if it hasn't already made it out into the general population. If the rate of new infections continues at it's current pace or higher, it probably means they never had it under control despite the measures taken. This is still a fairly new outbreak too, so the numbers probably won't make sense for a while. Still hoping it goes away on it's own and we can put it down to super-spreaders and not a mutation.

You were right to wait to vote JD.  If I could go back and vote again I would choose options 3 or even 4.  .................So much for my guesswork. 

I voted 10,000 and epidemic.

North Korea crossed my mind too Chuck, for a number of reasons.

On another note, I hope N. Korea wasn't messing with genetically engineering anything.  

Cases are exploding.... Almost wondering what sequenced samples China actually deposited in the genbank to show no mutation.  Better double check those labels.

Just having some fun with my tinfoil hat.  
 

why wasn't there a "kill the planet" option for voting?  They call me captain optimism!

Option 7 is kill the planet. And here's one more reason why I worry:

Superbugs 'spread by hospital wet wipes'
9 hours ago
From the section Wales

MRSA bacteria can cause skin, blood, lung and heart infections
Researchers at Cardiff University have claimed the use of wet wipes can spread hospital superbugs.
Scientists from the School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Science tested seven detergent wipes used in hospitals across the UK on three common infections.
They showed "huge variability" in their ability to kill the disease-causing bacteria.
In every case, the wipes spread the superbugs from one surface to another.
The study, published in the American Journal of Infection Control, carried out a 10-second wiping procedure to test the wipes' effectiveness on MRSA, Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) and Acinetobacter, which can all cause life-threatening illnesses.
They were very inconsistent in their ability to remove spores of the bacteria from hospital surfaces, and they all spread significant amounts of bacteria over three consecutive surfaces.

Infection with Clostridium difficile bacteria can lead to life-threatening complications
In 2012, there were 1,646 deaths involving C. difficile infection in England and Wales and 292 deaths related to MRSA.
Study author Prof Jean-Yves Maillard said: "Wet wipes are generally good products, but the efficacy of these products can be improved. Hospital staff must be educated to ensure these products are used properly and will not cause an unnecessary risk to staff and patients - a single wipe should not be used on multiple surfaces."


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-33054489

option 7 should read 100 million 

As I stated in an earlier post, in Korean society it is a social obligation to visit family members, friends and even co-workers if they are hospitalized. And they don't just pop in and out to say howdy! They bring gifts of food or drink and stay for long periods of time! If you visit a family member at home or work or in hospital and they give you the flu you still have the flu and they gave it to you!

Not to mention Trains, Subways, Trams, Buses and Taxis!

South Korea needs to be honest so other countries can prepare and be on the watch for imported cases.    Confined to only hospitals is clearly not true.  Impossible with these numbers.