How resilient is the United States’ food system

How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?

Andrew G. Huff,
Walter E. Beyeler,
Nicholas S. Kelley,
Joseph A. McNitt




Abstract


Rarely have studies focused on the second- and third-order effects of pandemics. Limiting the disruption of critical infrastructures during a pandemic is important for the survival and health of society (i.e., electricity, water, and food) as most medical and public health responses to a pandemic depend on these infrastructures. The studies that have looked at this issue have highlighted alarming gaps in preparedness. This study used a system dynamics model to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on the USA’s food system. The model reveals that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25 % reduction in labor availability can create significant and widespread food shortages. The Ebola epidemic that began in 2014 has caused severe food shortages in West Africa, which are similar to the effects that this model predicts in the USA. The likely effects of the reduction in the amount of available food are difficult to specifically predict; however, it is likely to have severe negative consequences on society. The resilience of the food system must be improved against this hazard and others.


for entire article:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13412-015-0275-3

Good find, arirish - people tend to think that there are contingency plans in place for everything and we'll be just fine. The truth is that some things cannot be prepared for. One quarter to one third of the workforce sickened for extended periods (weeks and up) would cripple every supply line and bring us to our knees.

I love the JIT system

it works great !!!

I went to Home Depot yesterday

before going I went on-line to see if they had everything I wanted,since it's a good half hour drive to their store

according to their web site

everything was in stock

they even told me how many and on what aisle each item was

how convenient !!!

when I got there

they did not have one single item I was looking for

not one!!!

Very good points FluMom!  I have often thought that over... what if this, what if that...  After the Ebola thing in the US last year I realized I am prepped for something just like Ebola... imo easily survivable & you can out last it.  Airborne flu... that would be tougher but maybe we could do it. 

jacksdad wrote: Can't remember where I saw this, but it's a good quote nonetheless- "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.

It's just common sense! If anyone would just think a little. I used to live on the coast, anytime there was a potential hurricane, the grocery shelves were wiped out. It's the same when there is a winter storm coming where I live now. If people just thought a little bit about these types of instances they would realize how empty the shelves would be so very quickly. I remember one time I was living in Atlanta, we got the tail end of a hurricane coming up through Florida, so by then it was a tropical storm. Wasn't supposed to be any big deal, no kind of warnings, nothing, it wasn't supposed to be a big deal. just a little rain. Well it WAS a big deal. Flooding, a tornado, no electricity for 4 or 5 days. Everything came to a standstill. You could not buy anything, the first day because they could not run cash registers, then the groceries got wise, they opened and sold stuff using calculators cause their food was going to spoil. But it was less than safe, shopping in stores where the only light was from the front windows and long lines because it was slow to check out and you had to have CASH ONLY. Once it was gone there was no more because they couldn't receive anything as they had no computer systems, so bare shelves very quickly and what was left was only a few canned goods.