Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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Posted: March 01 2016 at 2:46am |
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http://paulbeckwith.net/2016/02/29/precursor-to-big-earthquake/
I can think of three possibilities on the CO (and other gasses) in the western part of North America (from Canada to Baja California) 1-seismic pressure possible earthquake maybe effecting the hole region or just a small part of the region. That gasses seem to escape from faultlines (or is it fracking related) in a very large area does not have to give a large earthquake. Maybe the gasses escaping is release of pressure. 2-volcanic related-the western part of North America has many old volcanos-maybe all these systems are related ? 3-global warming-did a layer in the earthscrust give way (due to temperatures getting above a certain level or drought - clay when wet can stop gasses-when its get to dry it may crumble and give way to gasses). There were reports that methane reached a levell of 4000 ppb. It is very unusual. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/patterson. Also the Bejing-China aera has increased CO-levels.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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On ground level in the region there are other measurements: http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/display.php?year=2016&mon=2&day=25¶m=CO&units=007&order=latitude+desc&hours=midday&o3area=&o3pa8=&county_name=--COUNTY--&latitude=S-Southern&basin=--AIR+BASIN--&o3switch=new&ptype=aqd&report=HVAL&statistic=DAVG&btnsubmit=Update+Display
So is the (still experimental) satelite-sensors not working like they should ? Another question is at what level CO does have healtheffects ?
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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http://www3.epa.gov/airquality/carbonmonoxide/health.html
HealthCO can cause harmful health effects by reducing oxygen delivery to the body's organs (like the heart and brain) and tissues. At extremely high levels, CO can cause death. Exposure to CO can reduce the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood. People with several types of heart disease already have a reduced capacity for pumping oxygenated blood to the heart, which can cause them to experience myocardial ischemia (reduced oxygen to the heart), often accompanied by chest pain (angina), when exercising or under increased stress. For these people, short-term CO exposure further affects their body’s already compromised ability to respond to the increased oxygen demands of exercise or exertion. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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I did not see any reports about overcrowded hospitals in the effected area or mass starvation.
Even in an area with some air-problems "unhealthy for sensetive groups" it is the ozone that is the problem, not the CO ! This is the air-quality-loop for feb 26-no major problem ! My conclusion-the satelite measurements showed on null-school are incorrect. They are not a warningsign for anything-just experimental !
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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Some other remarks-in the area-or at least part of it-you could expect helium-3-release as an earthquake warning !
Also the proffessor from India distanced himself from this CO-discussion: (From paul.beckwith.9 on facebook) Prof Singh appears to be distancing himself according to this email exchange posted on sam's page. Interestingly though the GOES5 satellite data page now times out. error 504
Guess we'll just wait and see. To: Singh, Ramesh Subject: CO burst, United States West Coast Professor Singh, Lots of speculation afoot regarding a recent CO burst along the West Coast of the United States. Some of the discussions mention your work. Anyway, here are a couple of related links... Paleoclimatologist Paul Beckwith reviews the recent evidence ~ https://youtu.be/tj4nbi2ug0o A post on DailyKos ~ http://www.dailykos.com/.../--There-is-a-Major-Carbon... Thank you, sir! His reply: Many thanks for your mail, please read my views GEOS-5 is a NASA chem model, showing a high concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) along the west coast of California since Feb. 26. This model outputs is updated from time to time every three hours. Some news outlets reported data showing higher concentrations of CO relating and implied an impending earthquake based on one of my earlier papers related to Gujarat earthquake which occurred on 26 January 2001. This research paper is published in a peer reviewed Journal showing higher CO concentrations few days prior to Gujarat earthquake. These websites have included my research paper on their own volition – unrelated to the CO readings - and as such, have created misleading stories causing anxiety in some readers. The facts are that the CO image showing high concentrations is associated with the Aliso Canyon ground storage emissions of methane gas. Depending upon the wind, the CO is getting dispersed in all directions. Due to south-west wind, the CO plume is moving over the ocean. Let me know if you have any further question or concern. Best, Ramesh ___________________________________ Ramesh P. Singh, Ph.D. President, AGU Natural Hazards Group Professor, Earth System Science and Remote Sensing School of Life and Environmental Sciences Schmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University I wrote back: Professor Singh, Thank you for your reply! Honestly, I was under the impression that the Aliso Canyon methane leak had been stopped. Also, in the http://earth.nullschool.net/ recordings which appeared in Paul Beckwith’s presentation, it appears to me that the plume generally moved East, away from the ocean. There are reports that ground-level data do not match the GEO-5 observations. Relatedly, some are concluding that a stalled, high-pressure weather system simply trapped “normal” human-caused and natural emissions in the atmosphere, not concentrated at ground level, but visible to GEO-5. All the same, the event has merited concern, especially in light of your remarkable work and your findings at Gujurat. Again, thank you for your very kind reply. Best, |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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From Sam Carana FB:
So this whole episode is based on predictive data? From the Null Map site: "Forecasts using the GEOS system are experimental and are produced for research purposes only. Use of these forecasts for purposes other than research is not recommended." From their facebook page Earth: "This data is the output of a numerical weather model. (For CO specifically, it is from NASA's GEOS-5.) Sensors and measurements aren't available everywhere, so instead models are used to emulate the atmosphere and fill in the gaps. Actual measurements are input into the model, then the model is run to produce weather data for the entire planet. They try to be as close to reality as possible, but it's not possible to be 100% accurate." I am unable to find (on their sites or NASA's) what "actual measurements" are being input.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_monoxide_poisoning
The acute effects produced by carbon monoxide in relation to ambient concentration in parts per million are listed below:[15][16]
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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The satelite data showed 40.000 parts ber billion=40 partsper million healtheffects would be limited.
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Mark
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I just contacted Mr. Singh a few moments ago and he replied with he same exact email, word for word.
Not to be all "conspiracy-ish," but if he IS downplaying this situation and this is in fact a CO explosion directly related to a large tectonic shift coming soon, I'm wondering if it's the same reason we're not seeing major news coverage of this -- meaning, perhaps our state and federal agencies don't want to cause mass panic by coming out and saying "In a few days we're all f****d." Call me crazy, but I just don't trust state or federal agencies with our health or safety.
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DeepThinker
V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245 |
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Okay we have one example of gas releases preceding a major earthquake. So What! It might have been predictive or it could have been just a random association. This is NO reason to scare the American public.
From a scientific perspective I find it fascinating and feel it needs to be studied. However we are SO FAR from making good earthquake predictions that any they try would be counter productive. Have you ever heard the story of the boy who cried wolf? |
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DeepThinker
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To claify my last post... you need a reliable, repeatable, and provable earthquake prediction model before you go public. If you go public to soon you will cause more harm than good.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Looks like there was an update:
Tuesday, Mar 1, 2016 · 2:47:57 PM PST · Pakalolo March 1, 2016IMPORTANT NOTICE: Elevated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations over California in the GEOS-5 products since February 25, 2016, are incorrect. They are a consequence of unrealistic emissions derived from satellite observations of fires, which led to elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO (as well as other species). NASA's EOS-Terra spacecraft entered safe mode on February 18, 2016, during an inclination adjustment maneuver. This caused the MODIS instrument to enter safe mode, with the nadir and space-view doors closed. When the Terra MODIS transitioned back to science mode on February 24, 2016, the operating temperatures for the SWIR and LWIR (Short-wave Infrared and Longwave infrared) focal planes have not yet stabilized. As a consequence, some data products have been severely degraded. This includes the "Fire Radiative Power" fields that are used by GEOS-5 to compute emissions of CO, CO2, and carbonaceous aerosols by biomass burning. GMAO is working to correct this problem. The GEOS-5 analyses will be re-run from February 24, 2016, using only the EOS-Aqua MODIS data, in order to exclude the unrealistic CO emissions. EOS-Terra observations will be re-introduced once the instrument has stabilized. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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As far as I understand it many things in "this newsitem" can go wrong. Nullschool-presentation is working with satelite data. It could misrepresent this data due to technical error.
NASA is stating that GEOS-5 "products since february 25, 2016, are incorrect". That would explain why satelite measurements of (a.o.) CO did not match groundmeasurements in the same area. The satelite-measurements for CO are-of course-not the only source of information. Measurements on groundlevel-as far as I did check-did not indicate such high CO levels. Using the null-school dynamic presentation looks nice but in this case after february 25 it may the only value that it has, looking good. All other interpretations seem to be wrong. May there be a large earthquake this week in the effected area it is proberbly coincidence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m6N996LB7M CO poisening can give flu-like symptoms. In this video a reference is made to the European Copernicus programm on the CO measurements. But if that programm works with the same GEOS-5 data the outcome would be the same as the nullschool-outcome and be incorrect. Dutchsinse http://dutchsinse.com/3012016-large-carbon-co-monoxide-gas-release-along-the-west-coast-a-seismic-precursor-seen-in-action/ is correct in saying that the effected area-west North America- is full of volcanic activity and fracking operations. The null-school presentations are following what looks like large clouds. But again-if the satelite measurements go trough processing and in stead of calculting by error 14000 parts per billion in stead of the more normal 140-two 00 to much-you may get an incorrect outcome. I will keep an eye on this story to see if there are groundmeasurements that are getting close to the nullschool presentations. The story lookslike a piece of a jig-saw that should fit in an opening but just will not fit. Paul Beckwith jumped on the story-as a climate expert he should know how to get more measurements and data to find out what is going on. A large earthquake in the western US would have global impact. http://paulbeckwith.net/2016/03/01/california-dreaming-instrumentation-error-seems-illogical/ |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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From http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/29/carbon-monoxide-spikes-to-34000-parts-per-billion-over-california-on-february-26-what-the-heck-is-going-on/
Thus the apparent, current very large West Coast CO spike near major fault lines (and over regions suffering from what is now a very severe five-year drought) in this particular monitor remains a bit of a mystery. Considering that all the wildfire and human potential sources for the CO pulse are unlikely to produce the spike in the Nullschool data, that we have no warning of potential impending geological activity from the major agencies, and that we have had no other reports from related agencies to confirm the spike, we should also consider that there may well be something wrong with the monitor. Artifacts can appear in the satellite model data and it’s not unheard of to get a spike reading due to other signals impacting how physical models interpret sensor data. (Hourly carbon monoxide observations in Central San Bernardino do not match high surface CO measures recorded by the GEOS 5 model. Similar lower atmospheric readings come from station observations throughout Southern and Central California. Image source: CaliforniaAMQD.) To this point, lack of confirmation at ground reporting stations for high CO readings appearing in the GEOS 5 monitor increase the likelihood that these high peak readings were a glitch or an artifact in the physical data. A cursory view of local warnings shows no local CO air quality alerts for the areas indicated in the Nullschool data set (You can view a list of the local monitors here). Analysis of this data also shows much lower CO readings from these stations in the range of 400 to 1200 parts per billion — quite a bit lower than what the GEOS 5 monitor is showing. So what we have is one model showing a very high CO spike, but none of the related ground monitors picking it up. Since there are hundreds of ground stations in this region, it seems quite a bit less likely that there is something wrong with each of the readings coming from these stations than from the GEOS 5 model itself. This begs the question — was there some kind of false positive that confused GEOS 5? Was there some other signal that tripped the model to show such a high reading? But to these points, a general lack of overall confirmation from the hundreds of ground sensors scattered across the region seems to point to the likelihood that such elevated readings in the GEOS 5 monitor were a glitch, an artifact, or a false reading for this atmospheric level. Dr. Gavin Schmidt, head of GISS NASA, has confirmed the glitch in his twitter feed which you can read here. He notes:
An excellent further explanation has been given by Bryan, a blogger over at Of Tech and Learning. His explanation is as follows:
So a glitch does appear to be the cause of the current CO spike in the Nullschool data. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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The discussion continues;
The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernicus_Programme has its own information network it seems. And that network seems to confirm the nullschool-readings, more or less. Also https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/955 did update their post: UPDATE MARCH 1, 2016 8:20 PM EASTERN US TIME -- The following "Important Notice" has been issued by NASA:IMPORTANT NOTICE: Elevated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations over California in the GEOS-5 products since February 25, 2016, are incorrect. They are a consequence of unrealistic emissions derived from satellite observations of fires, which led to elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO (as well as other species). NASA's EOS-Terra spacecraft entered safe mode on February 18, 2016, during an inclination adjustment maneuver. This caused the MODIS instrument to enter safe mode, with the nadir and space-view doors closed. When the Terra MODIS transitioned back to science mode on February 24, 2016, the operating temperatures for the SWIR and LWIR (Short-wave Infrared and Longwave infrared) focal planes have not yet stabilized. As a consequence, some data products have been severely degraded. This includes the "Fire Radiative Power" fields that are used by GEOS-5 to compute emissions of CO, CO2, and carbonaceous aerosols by biomass burning. GMAO is working to correct this problem. The GEOS-5 analyses will be re-run from February 24, 2016, using only the EOS-Aqua MODIS data, in order to exclude the unrealistic CO emissions. EOS-Terra observations will be re-introduced once the instrument has stabilized.
Just one problem: This Statement Makes No SenseThe statement issued by NASA makes no sense. Even if the satellite was placed into "safe mode" to be relocated and even if the doors had been closed for that move then re-opened, by NASA's own admission, the doors were re-opened and the satellite put back in "science mode" on February 24. The readings which we published were effective THREE DAYS LATER, on February 27. Does NASA expect the world to believe that the instruments aboard their state-of-the-art satellite could not "stabilize" in three full days? Further, the readings dissipated smoothly across the continental United States and continue to do so since February 28th. If NASA's claim that the instruments were not "stabilized" then how can they explain the completely smooth, natural dissipation of the CO gas, in accordance with prevailing wind patterns over the course of several more days? It seems to us that if the satellite was unstable, that when it stabilized, there would be a sudden, discernable shift in its readings. That is not the case. Next, the contention that the reading for "Fire Radiative Power" seems to imply that wildfires burning on the west coast, may have impacted the satellite reading. There are no massivewildfires on the west coast which would even come close to affecting the enormous area reflected by the CO emissions captured by the satellite.
SuperStation95 goes to great lengths to publish news that the mass-media does not, so as to inform readers in a responsible manner. In our story above, we repeatedly told the public "DO NOT PANIC" making clear "THERE IS NO REASON TO PANIC" yet this story has been smeared by quak-like "experts." For Instance, a MyNorthWest.com story quotes John Vidal, director of the University of Washington's Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, who actually told MYNorthwest.com that the reason for the CO detection is a high pressure system creating stagnant air loaded with CO and fires burning in various places like Canada. Mr. Vidal went on to make a complete fool of himself, to the point of quackery, when he stated: Back in the 1970s, when we were looking at all possible ways to predict earthquakes, there was an idea that the Earth cracks up in the area about to have an earthquake. And when that cracks, fluid and gases might come out of the ground," he said, noting that back then a theory emerged that watching for those gases could indicate where an earthquake was about to hit. "But that was back in the '70s. Now we know the ground doesn't crack across the entire area and that idea just doesn't work," he said. "In the 40 years since, when we've been watching faults, we have tremendously improved measurements, and that kind of signaling just doesn't come before big earthquakes."
Apparently this "Director" never bothered to read the Scientific papers analyzing the release of Carbon Monoxide from the Gurjarat, India earthquake of 2001 . . . written by geophysicist Ramesh Singh, and published in the scientific journal: Volume 25, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 580–585 "Applications of fluid and gas geochemistry to geohazards investigation" Had he bothered to expend _any_ professional effort before shooting his mouth off about our report, he would have found that this peer-reviewed, scientific paper established the following:
But a lack of professionalism bordering on Quackery seems to be the norm on the west coast. The media out there is another example. MyNorthwest "reporter" Richard D. Oxley who did this "story" never bothered to contact SuperStation95. Despite our email and telephone numbers being prominently displayed on our CONTACT page, young Mr. Oxley failed to perform even the most rudimentary journalistic task of contacting the source. And he has the gall to call himself a "reporter." SuperStation95 stands-by our story. We published it solely to inform the public so they could decide for themselves if any action was required. While we earnestly hope that no serious earthquake takes place on the west coast, we believe that alerting the public is what the media exists to do. We will continue to report despite the fact that the mass-media seems grossly derelict in its duty. |
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Albert
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I will admit, the statement about massive wildfires is an odd one to make in February. I live in California and I haven't heard of any, and in Feb? Pretty odd statement. Good points Josh. It's almost as if they can't make sense of the massive readings themselves and they're trying to justify them somehow, or it could be misinformation to cover it.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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http://oftechandlearning.com/bad-data-carbon-monoxide-eruption-not-real/
Don’t forget the AIRS dataRemember that MOPITT isn’t the only satellite-based instrument being used to collect carbon monoxide concentration data. The AIRS instrument on Aqua was also collecting data during the same time period in question, and there were no reported issues with the instrument or satellite. See the loop below. There is no huge gas plume. Note the color scale tops out at 140 ppb (parts per billion). Compare this to the 40,000 ppb levels seen on Nullschool.net’s Earth map during the heigh of the apparent gas eruption. After the GEOS-5 model combines the data, the magnitude of the bad MOPITT data is so large that it simply overwhelms the accurate data collected by AIRS. You can view and interact with the AIRS data for yourself here. (comment DJ: there must be a lot of CO-measurements in the effected region over the time-feb 25-march 1. If there was a very high CO level it must show up in measurements. ) |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95767 |
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NASA gave an update on what went wrong with the CO-measuring and how they deal with it;
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