QuoteReplyTopic: Ebola is back - Outbreak Posted: May 15 2017 at 8:19am
After a long time a not worrying about disease and getting into way too much politics the killer virus is back and we may be on the verge of more outbreaks in Africa.
Without sounding like I'm putting any kind of positive spin on an Ebola outbreak, at least it happened in the Congo. These guys know more about Ebola than anyone, having dealt with numerous outbreaks over the course of decades. They're under no illusion as to the cause, whereas the West African outbreak was fueled by superstition, dangerous burial practices, higher population densities and misinformation. I doubt we'll see the uncontrolled spread we saw there.
We should fully expect this. It's inevitable that Ebola and it's extended family of Filoviruses will keep reappearing, especially given the region's appetite for bushmeat, and our continuing push into previously uninhabited forests.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
It is true that it was inevitable and it is amazing it has been so long since there have been real problems. This is one to keep an eye on because this is how it started before. Although they are just reporting a few, there are probably for more out there.
The number of suspected cases of Ebola has risen to 18 from nine in less than a week in an isolated part of Democratic Republic of Congo, where three have died from the disease since April 22, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.
The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014
that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the
executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program,
said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate
Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this
outbreak.”
The
risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O.
said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote
area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited
access to health care.
^Thanks, Med, it was bound to happen sooner or later! Fun time is over!
Your right. Fun time is over. What is most disturbing about this is we may not be getting the real numbers yet and the outbreak may be far worse than they are reporting.
I don't like zeroing in on these things - like intuition when there is about to be real trouble. - but this one feels bad. One can assume that there is always a form of Ebola circulating and perhaps people have developed some immunity. New outbreaks would suggest it has mutated.
Over the next week we will know in terms of the fatality rate which is now at 3 out of 18. Of course, you can't base anything on so few cases.
No one is paying attention to this outbreak and it grows worse by the day. People have become so wrapped up in politics that they forget our greatest threat to national security and also survival would be an Ebola Pandemic.
"Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it"
The W.H.O. was criticized for responding too slowly to an outbreak in West Africa in 2014
that left more than 11,000 people dead, and Dr. Peter Salama, the
executive director of the organization’s health emergencies program,
said at a briefing that it was essential to “never, ever underestimate
Ebola” and to “make sure we have a no-regrets approach to this
outbreak.”
The
risk from the outbreak is “high at the national level,” the W.H.O.
said, because the disease was so severe and was spreading in a remote
area in northeastern Congo with “suboptimal surveillance” and limited
access to health care.
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) grew
by nine more cases, according to the World Health Organization (WHO)
African region's situation report posted today.
There are now 29
total cases, with 2 cases confirmed, 2 probable, and 25 suspected. With
the three deaths from the deadly virus previously reported, the
case-fatality rate is now 10%.
The nine new cases were identified
in Ngayi and Azande, both located in the Likati health district. In
contrast to previously published maps, Azande is now placed in northern
DRC, away from the border with South Sudan.
No health workers have
been infected so far, according to the report, and most patients have
presented with fever, vomiting, and bloody diarrhea. The WHO said
scientists are now following 416 contacts, up from yesterday's 400.
With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.
The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.
The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.
According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.
In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.
DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
With international travel via airports, trains and cars available throughout the region, a single infected individual on an airplane could infect scores of others, who in turn could infect scores more.
The following Ebola model from Yaneer Bar-Yam, who has successfully simulated and predicted such events as the rise of the Arab Spring, shows how an Ebola contagion may look.
The above model is based on Ebola’s current infection rates and doesn’t take into account its possible evolution as it spreads from human-to-human.
According to scientists, the 2014 strain began hyper-evolving, to the point that had it not been contained and continued to spread through human contact, it could have gone airborne, making it as easy to catch as a common cold.
In response to this unprecedented threat, US government officials began preparing for mass casualties, reportedly going so far as to develop plans for Community Care Centers where infected individuals, or those suspected of infections, would be detained indefinitely.
DJ; Climatechange, lack of government, refugeecrises, will make the problem much worse. Belgium has a large Congo minority with lots of travel....
We cannot be too careful in the U.S. about screening people from countries which may have Ebola. It would appear that Ebola has mutated again. While it may not be as virulent with only 10% fatality - a 5% loss of our population would shut down our infrastructure.
Did we make Ebola? We have developed biological strains of most viruses and bacteria in some cases "just to see if it could be done".
With the mobility of people by jet now things could be global in 24 hours. HIV started in America with a patient Zero as did Swine Flu in Mexico with a young boy.
This site was born when a lot of people were getting Avian Flu and we are at a point where many bugs have mutated and are resistant to everything we have.
In a hot wet place - the breeding ground for all that is viral - but like HIV - it can spread.
We need to remain vigilant and aware. We have a lot more to fear from Ebola than a nuclear bomb and our vulnerability to biological terrorism is the worst of any of it.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Thursday warned that an
Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could spread to the
neighbouring Central African Republic (CAR).
Militia violence has forced thousands of people to flee across the border to CAR.
Two cases of the virus have been confirmed by the WHO in Congo’s
remote northeastern Bas-Uele province since early May. Four people have
died so far among the 43 suspected and confirmed cases. Experts said
that the affected area’s isolation, it is about 1,400 km from the
capital Kinshasa, has helped contain the spread of the highly contagious
hemorrhagic fever.
The WHO said, yet recent attacks by Christian militias in CAR’s
border town of Bangassou have driven about 2,750 people into Bas-Uele,
raising the risk that the Ebola outbreak could spread across the border. “There is a big concern about Ebola spreading to Central African Republic after this displacement,” said Michel Yao, the WHO’s representative in the CAR.
“We are worried as the refugees are close to the epicenter of the outbreak,” he
told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, adding they could become infected
and carry the virus back home. Yao said, while this latest Ebola
outbreak is Congo’s eighth, the most of any country, CAR lacks
experience in dealing with such an epidemic, and its health system is
weak after four years of conflict.
Sorry, Med - still can't say this is giving me any cause for serious concern. Even when it landed in the slums of West Africa, it couldn't transform itself into a larger outbreak. It just moves too slowly (unlike influenza) to be a global threat. Interesting article from the much respected Helen Branswell -
There are signs that the Ebola outbreak
in the Democratic Republic of Congo may not be as big as was once
feared, World Health Organization officials indicated Thursday.
Fourteen suspected cases have tested negative for
the deadly virus, Alison Clement, a WHO spokeswoman currently in
Likati, the epicenter of the response, told STAT in an interview.
So far there have been two confirmed cases, four
probable cases, and four deaths. Another 40 people are currently listed
as suspected cases, said Clement. Roughly 300 people who are contacts of
known or suspected cases are being monitored to see if they develop
symptoms.
Clement cautioned, though, that in an outbreak the net is
cast wide to try to find anyone who might have Ebola, so that they can
be isolated and tested. People who are sick with Ebola but are missed by
surveillance can infect family members; if they die and are buried in
traditional burial rites, those attending funerals can also be infected.
A mobile laboratory is now operating in Likati, Clement said. That
will speed up the process of determining the actual scale of the
outbreak. A response team of about 50 people from the DRC ministry of
health, WHO, UNICEF, and Doctors Without Borders are in Likati, she
said.
Among those who tested negative are five people who were being cared
for in the Ebola treatment unit that was set up in Likati, Clement said.
Four have been released; one is still sick with something else and
needs medical care.
Given what appears to be the limited scope of the outbreak, the use of an experimental Ebola vaccine may not be required.
“For the time, there doesn’t seem that there was really a necessity
to do so. I hope it remains the case,” Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny, a WHO
assistant director-general, told STAT.
That said, Kieny confirmed planning continues to allow for deployment
of vaccine, if the government of DRC asks for it. But it may not, she
acknowledged.
“The logistics, all the
preparations are moving forward, but you can imagine that without
indication that this is spreading, that the government may decide that
maybe it’s not reasonable to start a big vaccination operation. And
actually, you don’t know who you would vaccinate,” Kieny said from
Geneva.
The logistics of getting the vaccine to this remote part of DRC would
be substantial. Clement said getting from one village to another in
this part of the country is incredibly difficult; there are no roads and
response workers are being ferried along jungle paths on motorbikes.
“This is in the middle of nowhere,” said Kieny. ‘’It’s not a routine
operation, so in order to go for it, they must be really sure that this
is worth it.”
Some observers have questioned why the experimental Ebola vaccine,
which was tested in Guinea in 2015, hasn’t been immediately sent to the
DRC. There have been reports the government was hesitant about using an
unlicensed product.
Kieny said this outbreak has galvanized awareness among the
organizations that respond to Ebola outbreaks that the groundwork for
use of the vaccine must be laid in advance in at-risk countries — places
where Ebola outbreaks have happened in the past.
Regulatory agencies need to be asked to pre-approve vaccine use in
emergencies; ethics committees that greenlight emergency use
authorizations have to be asked to do this work in advance.
“This will move ahead as soon as this event is closed,” Kieny said.
“After that we are having discussions about finalizing the preparations,
making sure the protocol has been submitted in all the countries.”
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
KINSHASA, Congo (AP) — Congo's health minister says there have been
no new confirmed cases of Ebola and the outbreak has been controlled.
Health
Minister Oly Ilunga Kalenga said Friday no new cases of the deadly
virus have been confirmed in the Likati zone for more than 21 days, the
maximum incubation period.
comment: We have also heard of it being spread sexually much longer than 21 days. Let's go over this again
A 21 day quarantine, after being infected with the Ebola virus, has
become the standard quarantine recommendation for avoiding the spread of
the virus. That's not long enough to eliminate the risk, suggested a
new study published yesterday in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks.
By looking at data from past Ebola outbreaks, as well as the first nine months of the current Ebola outbreak, Drexel University
environmental engineering professor Dr. Charles Haas pointed out that
between 0.1 and 12 percent of the time, the incubation period for
someone infected with Ebola was longer than 21 days, either by a few
days or even a couple of weeks. The 0.1 figure comes from the 1976 Ebola
outbreak in Zaire, which had far fewer cases analyzed than the other
Ebola outbreaks looked at in this study that have had a higher number of
cases with longer incubation periods, such as the Ebola outbreak in Congo in 1995 and the current outbreak in West Africa.
comment: We need to be vigilant and not in such a rush to calm everyone down. For one thing there is civil unrest and it may have spread outside the outbreak area.
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