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U.S. Flu Season 2017-2018 will it become epidemic?

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    Posted: December 20 2017 at 2:21pm
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/us-flu-activity-jumps-new-variant-h3n2-case-confirmed

Influenza activity is now widespread in 12 states across the country, and officials have confirmed a new case of variant H3N2 (H3N2v) flu, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

Other indicators are also up sharply, and officials noted a new pediatric death.

ILI visits also climb

Flu was widespread in 12 states, some of them in the Midwest and West for the first time this year, according to the CDC's FluView report covering the week ending Dec 9. During the week before, flu was widespread in only 7 states, 6 in the South plus Massachusetts. Today California, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, New York, and Connecticut were added to the roster.

Twenty-six states and Puerto Rico reported regional activity, and 10 noted local flu activity.

The proportion of patients visiting outpatient clinics with influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms is now 2.7%, well above the national baseline of 2.2% and up from 2.3% the week before. In addition, four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas) experienced high ILI activity, an increase in one from the week before. Five states experienced moderate ILI activity; New York City, Puerto Rico, and 16 states experienced low ILI activity; and 25 states experienced minimal ILI activity.

Flu activity is at or above region-specific baselines in 7 of 10 US regions.

Influenza A is still the dominant strain detected from specimens collected by US laboratories, with 82.2% of specimens collected last week being that type. Since Oct 1, 76.4% of all specimens tested have been influenza A.

comment: This is only December. It will get colder and these numbers will go up. 

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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/summary.htm

The proportion of people seeing their health care provider for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased sharply from last week and has been at or above the national baseline for three weeks so far this season. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses were most commonly reported during week 49 (the week ending December 9, 2017) and have been the predominant virus so far this season. Several flu activity indicators are higher than is typically seen for this time of year. Twelve states reported widespread flu activity, 26 states reported regional flu activity and 10 states reported local influenza activity. A flu vaccine is the best available way to protect against influenza. CDC recommends that everyone 6 months and older get an injectable flu vaccine as soon as possible. Below is a summary of the key flu indicators for the week ending December 9, 2017:

comment: The number of states with widespread flu has nearly doubled. It is widespread in California and I have it and am very ill.  I am not immune to this one - and I think it is the H3N2 mutant strain. The vaccine was only 10% effective this year.

We do not want to be a terminally ill country - where our first defense is denial.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2017 at 2:11pm
Originally posted by Yyyyyyyyyyyy Yyyyyyyyyyyy wrote:



December 11, 2017
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur.
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. How many people get the flu in any particular year depends in part on the effectiveness of the vaccine. In a good year, people receiving vaccinations are 60% less likely to get sick, but in recent years protection has been worse. Last year it was 42%. In 2014-15 it was 19% effective. "Although this is not perfect, if you have a common disease with significant morbidity and mortality, you prevent many cases," says Richard Zimmerman, flu epidemiologist at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. The difficulty in developing an effective influenza vaccine is that strains of viruses must be selected in a few months to give manufacturers time to vaccinate. The World Health Organization meets twice a year to decide which strains the vaccines should include. The recommendation for the Southern Hemisphere is in September. The recommendation for the Northern Hemisphere is in February or March. In each case, the spread of the influenza vaccine begins about 7 months later.

Seven states reported widespread influenza activity
This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza.
By Ciara Speller
Published: December 9, 2017, 5:14 am Updated: December 9, 2017, 11:19 AM
   

SPRINGFIELD, Massachusetts (WWLP). The latest numbers of the Center for Disease Control found that the influenza in seven states is widespread, one of which is Massachusetts.

This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza. Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Virginia also suffered. This time last year, no state has reported widespread influenza activity with only 42 confirmed cases.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yyyyyyyyyyyy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2017 at 11:16pm


December 11, 2017
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur.
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. How many people get the flu in any particular year depends in part on the effectiveness of the vaccine. In a good year, people receiving vaccinations are 60% less likely to get sick, but in recent years protection has been worse. Last year it was 42%. In 2014-15 it was 19% effective. "Although this is not perfect, if you have a common disease with significant morbidity and mortality, you prevent many cases," says Richard Zimmerman, flu epidemiologist at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. The difficulty in developing an effective influenza vaccine is that strains of viruses must be selected in a few months to give manufacturers time to vaccinate. The World Health Organization meets twice a year to decide which strains the vaccines should include. The recommendation for the Southern Hemisphere is in September. The recommendation for the Northern Hemisphere is in February or March. In each case, the spread of the influenza vaccine begins about 7 months later.

Seven states reported widespread influenza activity
This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza.
By Ciara Speller
Published: December 9, 2017, 5:14 am Updated: December 9, 2017, 11:19 AM
   

SPRINGFIELD, Massachusetts (WWLP). The latest numbers of the Center for Disease Control found that the influenza in seven states is widespread, one of which is Massachusetts.

This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza. Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Virginia also suffered. This time last year, no state has reported widespread influenza activity with only 42 confirmed cases.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 09 2017 at 12:07pm
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/this-years-flu-vaccine-may-only-be-10-effective-experts-warn/

What's more, this year's flu shot may not be up to the task. It is the same formulation that was used during Australia's most recent flu season -- which typically sets a pattern for what the U.S. will face -- and it was only 10 percent effective there.

comment: This is not news to me. I have been documented that the influenza h3n2v strain mutated in Australia and we are making it worse with egg-grown vaccine which actual makes it mutate even more.

There is no reason to believe a vaccine which is not effective is going to increase you immunity or help you fight off the flu.

We have reached a point where flu season has become Christmas season for the vaccine creators which refuse to pull their product when it doesn't work.

Since flu shots can not only make you ill, some even causing the flu, there is nothing to support the illogical claim - it is better than nothing.

I am concerned about further mutation of H3N2 and it could become much more virulent.  We have no safety net - especially in our medical care system or our hospitals.  We are not ready for a Pandemic.

This is going to be a cold winter and with the increasing cold - people's immune systems go downhill and more people get sick.

If flu is not a reportable disease by our physicians, we have no first line actual count of cases based on medical records versus government labs which are notoriously biased and always report less cases than there are.

It is going to get worse.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 09 2017 at 11:55am
There has been more than a little increase in the flu in the last week and it went from 4 widespread states to 7.

It is very difficult to determine how bad it is since we still have no real fatality monitoring or more than a handful of labs that are selected to make up the numbers extrapolated and could be off by large numbers.

The geographic spread of influenza in seven states was reported as widespread; Puerto Rico and 18 states reported regional activity; 18 states reported local activity; and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Virgin Islands and seven states reported sporadic activity; and Guam did not report.

It is getting worse and temperatures are plunging as a savage storm hits the east coast and the South.

That is 25 states - half of the U.S. with widespread or regional activity. All states have some flu activity and there is no reason for silence from Guam after it started with being the first area with widespread activity.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yyyyyyyyyyyy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2017 at 11:47am
And I do not need any doctors, my immunity is proved by the local immunologist and . Head of the Department of Public Health of the city of Almetyevsk. I wanted to inform you
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Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Вы уже опубликовали информацию о своем иммунитете. Это не привело вас к иммунитету. Это не даст вам иммунолога.

Результат не изменится. Продолжайте спрашивать снова и снова. Вы получите тот же ответ каждый раз.

Мы не считаем ваш иммунитет особенным. Мы не будем посылать вам никаких врачей - любого типа.

Если благословенный папа, Мохаммед (благословение на его имя) или бессмертный дали лама поклялся, что вы гуляете чудом, Мы все равно не можем отправить вас никому. Мы не могли отнести вас к кому бы то ни было.

Мы не можем отправить вас никому.
Мы никого не будем посылать.
Мы никого не отправим.


Translation

You have already published information about your immunity. This did not lead you to immunity. This will not give you an immunologist.

The result will not change. Continue to ask again and again. You will receive the same answer every time.

We do not consider your immunity to be special. We will not send you any doctors - any type.

If the blessed pope, Mohammed (blessing in his name) or the immortal gave the llama sworn that you are walking by a miracle, We still can not send you to anyone. We could not take you to anyone.

We can not send you to anyone.
We will not send anybody.
We will not send anybody.

comment: I have received a private message about this and later the same has been posting in English and what was said to me was in English.  This person needs to take their information to local researchers and see what can be done with it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2017 at 8:47am
There is little in the media about the Flu Season in the U.S. which continues to get worse. Neither the CDC or the media is much help in monitoring people who are dying from the flu. Just a few days ago a

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2017/12/04/mom-2-dies-day-after-flu-diagnosis.html

20-year-old - who was very healthy before - died of this current season's flu.

Family members of an Arizona mother who died just one day after being diagnosed with the flu said the 20-year-old was very healthy leading up to her illness, with the exception of suffering from the occasional cold. Alani Murrieta, who leaves behind a 2-year-old and 6-month-old, had started complaining of symptoms on Sunday, Fox 10 reported.

“Monday she was still feeling sick, so her sister took her to urgent care, her and her kids,” Stephanie Gonzales, the woman’s aunt, told Fox 10. “They diagnosed them with the flu, sent her home with flu meds.”


By Tuesday, Murietta was taken to the hospital by her mother where she was diagnosed with pneumonia and her condition continued to deteriorate. She was placed on a ventilator but never recovered.

comment: The media is so obsessed making up their own news they give little attention to a mutating virus which could do us a lot of harm and perhaps span a Pandemic.



The CDC didn't even name the states where the flu is now widespread which are Oklahoma, Louisiana, Georgia, and New York.

H3 168 (90.3%) 1,527 (89.1%)

They are not even posting the h3n2 is the predominant strain 90.3% percent of the cases. It is likely we have a new version of this which is not the vulnerable to the current vaccine.


And so I will start a new term - TLI as opposed to TMI - too little information - far from too much.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 15 2017 at 4:57am
Вы уже опубликовали информацию о своем иммунитете. Это не привело вас к иммунитету. Это не даст вам иммунолога.

Результат не изменится. Продолжайте спрашивать снова и снова. Вы получите тот же ответ каждый раз.

Мы не считаем ваш иммунитет особенным. Мы не будем посылать вам никаких врачей - любого типа.

Если благословенный папа, Мохаммед (благословение на его имя) или бессмертный дали лама поклялся, что вы гуляете чудом, Мы все равно не можем отправить вас никому. Мы не могли отнести вас к кому бы то ни было.

Мы не можем отправить вас никому.
Мы никого не будем посылать.
Мы никого не отправим.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 10:08am
Originally posted by Rrrrrrrr Rrrrrrrr wrote:

Local immunologist, my immunity is proved.
Technology of production of medicines against influenza. First you need to infect me with the flu. When I will get out of my blood to take the blood component of immunoglobulin. And the immunoglobulin is artificially copied. So you get the best medicine for the flu
And I advise you not to guess whether this is spam. And go to Almetyevsk and check by yourself


Why is this not in Russian?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 8:46am
It is coming

Not if, but when - maybe next year it will hit the hardest in years.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 8:43am
To track this we will need to watch the current flu strains in the U.S. and as well as the current vaccine to see if there is a problem. Of course, in 2009 when I began tracking Swine Flu before the Pandemic - that time I found data from media in Mexico City going south to the infamous Pig slaughter house - Smithfield Foods in La Gloria, Mexico.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/2009/04/29/patient-zero-in-swine-flu-outbreak-identified-as-5-year-old-mexican-boy.html

I had a direct link to a CNN correspondent which had first entered the hospital in Mexico City where armed guards protected the hospital and I put up the footage on YouTube. That was 8 years ago in April.

Edgar got sick in late March or early April and recovered after a few days.

Local resident Jose Luis Martinez, 34, said he made the connection when he heard a description on the news of the symptoms: fever, coughing, joint aches, severe headache and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea.

"When we saw it on the television, we said to ourselves, 'This is what we had,'" Martinez told SkyNews. "It all came from here. The symptoms they are suffering are the same that we had here."

Edgar's case has gained attention because he lives near a large pig farm, fueling suspicion that the outbreak began there. The farm, Granjas Carroll, is a joint venture between Mexican firm Agroindustrias Unidas de Mexico SA and Virginia-based Smithfield Foods Inc.

comment: I had posted on AFT and although at one point many of my posts were lost - I did post of the Pandemic coming - not if, but when. Now those words have stayed with me and as I watched an posted - one of the few on Earth on the last Australian Flu outbreak here and on the net from the time it first started - the same words.

I will continue to track this and if this variant H3N2 has mutated or does mutate - this could become a Pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 09 2017 at 3:01pm
So we have reached week 44 in the U.S. of 2017 and it looks much nastier than before. Of course this based on a rather limited number of labs may not represent an accurate picture.

According to this week’s FluView report, seasonal influenza activity remained low overall in the United States, but is increasing. However, 6 states and Guam reported regional flu activity and 13 states reported local influenza activity.

comment: Personally I know more than two dozen people with this flu and two of them after 3 weeks had to be hospitalized when they still had it. It did not go away in a few days. There are many people not vaccinated and some of them are watching to see how effective the vaccine is before taking the risk. This is a rather dangerous approach yet if it winds up 30% of the people are not protected because H3N2v (variant) is the primary strain, we are in real trouble.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 09 2017 at 2:47pm
Waiting and watching. I just knew this season was going to be bad and it very well might be.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/health/flu-season-vaccine-effectiveness-study/index.html

"This year may be especially difficult because, in addition to this egg adaptive mutation which was present last year, there's indication that the H3N2 viruses are actually evolving,"
 

comment: News flash - they are? Not only evolving, there has been a mutation recently that could not be covered in the last vaccine.

he said.
Not only will the vaccine be a mismatch with the actual circulating viruses due to egg adaptation, it could also be a mismatch due to unexpected viral evolution."

It's too early to speculate which viruses will become dominant in the United States over the course of the coming flu season, Hensley said, "but it's starting to look like it will be H3 viruses." H3 viruses are influenza A viruses.


comment: I really like this part. When I had h5n1 and nearly died in Beckley, West Virginia - they did a nose swab. They tested for H5 but stopped short of verifying the N1. What is prevalent now is likely H3N2 but we will not confirm that unless they do the whole test.

"If H3N2 viruses dominate the US flu season again this year, vaccine effectiveness will likely be moderate to low again," Hensley said.


comment: So Albert - Pandemic coming?   Perhaps. Not if, but when.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2017 at 11:08pm
Although for the moment things are not so bad in Australia, apparently the strain did mutate, and while we may not be on the verge of a Pandemic yet, it could hit the U.S. hard.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865400/NHS-crisis-Australian-flu-UK-symptoms-2017-epidemic-flu-jab-hospital-bed-shortage

SUPER FLU COMING: Doctors fear strain from Australia will BREAK the NHS



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 2:50pm
And so it really begins in the U.S. - of course this map throughout the time I have been posting it, usually vastly understates the spread of the flu. It might be noted that we have a rather peculiar item here. Noting the threats of North Korea to attack Guam - it appears to have begun there - and is widespread. Is this the big surprise we have been threatened with?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 2:45pm
Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:


Week 40
No. of specimens tested 407
No. of positive specimens 72
Positive specimens by type/subtype  
    Influenza A 62 (86.1%)
    A(H1N1)pdm09 6 (9.7%)
    H3 49 (79.0%)
    Subtyping not performed 7 (11.3%)
    Influenza B 10 (13.9%)
     Yamagata lineage 5 (50.0%)
     Victoria lineage 0 (0%)
      Lineage not performed 5 (50.0%)


comment: The most infections are Influenza A and H3N2 (they will not perform the subtype) is nearly 80% of them.  The question is - will the current vaccine protect people against this strain and by not performing the full typing can they tell if it is the H3N2v (variant)?
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Week 40
No. of specimens tested 407
No. of positive specimens 72
Positive specimens by type/subtype  
    Influenza A 62 (86.1%)
    A(H1N1)pdm09 6 (9.7%)
    H3 49 (79.0%)
    Subtyping not performed 7 (11.3%)
    Influenza B 10 (13.9%)
     Yamagata lineage 5 (50.0%)
     Victoria lineage 0 (0%)
      Lineage not performed 5 (50.0%)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2017 at 9:52am
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/09/news-scan-sep-21-2017

An outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus infections in Maryland was first reported to the state health department on September 18, 2017. Although the number of reported human cases in Maryland is declining, an additional 8 human infections associated with this ongoing investigation were reported to CDC. In addition, Michigan reported a single H3N2v case, unrelated to the ongoing investigation in Maryland (Maryland [8] and Michigan [1]). Six of these viruses have been confirmed as H3N2v viruses; the remaining three viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3N2v at the Maryland public health laboratory; further testing is being performed by CDC to characterize these viruses. All nine patients reported exposure to swine at one of two agricultural fairs during the week preceding illness onset. Swine influenza A(H3N2) viruses were identified from respiratory samples collected from pigs at one of the fairs. Eight of the nine patients were children younger than 18 years and one patient was an adult aged >50 years. One of the nine patients was hospitalized and all patients are recovering or have fully recovered from their illness. No human-to-human transmission of these viruses has been identified.

comment:  So far there is almost a complete blackout in mainstream media reporting of the flu in the U.S.  The variant - which the current vaccine does not protect against, has reach America from Australia. This is Swine Flu and it was a  Swine Flu that caused the last Pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

Obviously Swine Flu has mutated - not become a variant since 2009. This last strain is nastier, deadlier and has already put several people I know in New York in the hospital. It has combined symptoms of a respiratory and intestinal flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2

You can check out the various seasons and strains above. Most of the vaccines over the last  years have not matched the predominate flu strain for the season and were not that effective.

Let's take a look at the 2014-2015 Flu Season for what could easily happen in the 2016-2017 Flue Season.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-health-flu/more-than-three-quarters-of-u-s-flu-shots-ineffective-report-idUSKBN0KO29G20150115


CHICAGO (Reuters) - More than three-quarters of Americans who got this season’s flu shot could get the virus anyway, given a mismatch between the flu strains covered by the shot and those actually causing illness in people, U.S. officials said.

An interim CDC report found the shot was only 23 percent effective overall, a performance about in line with what the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted last year, experts said. At the time, CDC warned that the predominant flu virus, influenza A (H3N2), had “drifted” or changed genetically since the shot was made.

How effective?

2004-05 10%
2005-06 21%
2006-07 52%
2007-08 37%
2008-09 41%
2009-10 56%
2010-11 60%
2011-12 47%
2012-13 49%
2013-14 52%
2014-15 19%
2015-16 47%

*Estimate from Nov 2, 2015–April 15, 2016.
comment: one thought that came to me today as I talked to my lady who has it and said "I am going to be sure to get my flu shot next week".  Will this help?  If already have had the flu should you still be vaccinated?

The actual vaccine effectiveness may be less than these numbers. Yet looking at 2014-2015 - it was pathetic. Someone very close to me died during that one.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:58pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Med - I know you feel the media orchestrate a news blackout of flu related news every year, but most people don't think about influenza in the same way we do. Ask people on the street about the circulating strains, and they won't be able to name them because they don't care enough to find out. As an example, I was talking to the nurses manning a flu shot station at my doctor's office about H7N9, and none of them had even heard about it. I had to write it down so they could google it correctly.

It's not a conspiracy. It's just that the population in general have zero interest in flu outbreaks other than whether they'll personally catch it. The media gives us what we want to hear because the bottom line is that it's good for business.



There are two takes on this Jacksdad. No doubt the media cater to what people want to read and even when they are sick, many them (Aussies as well) have the attitude - it's just a cold. I talked to the CDC yesterday and when I started asking the person who was suppose to have information when I started talking about strains they were lost.

Unfortunately, when we get into genetics and start digging in, it is the viruses that are the conspiracy to overthrow the human race - which is ironic - since they will have to go dormant if they can until some other species can be a host.

At a very deep level, and this was among the people who call the shots for our government on disease response, it was felt that there was more danger in people being alarmed than people dying from the flu. This not only would effect the population and the emergency rooms, but the economy as well. You might compare this to the broadcast of "War of the Worlds" where people were jumping off buildings.

So, during the last Pandemic - I started saying "Don't Panic - Prepare". That is my current philosophy. Sadly, those in government- not all - some - don't have the mental horsepower anymore for a good conspiracy nor do they care.

However the best antivirals are in storage for the elite and military and the best holes to hide in for the politicians and people with money.

That being said, it is up to us here at AFT to mind the watchtowers and know before the masses when a bad one is going to hit.

In the past, except for the Pandemic of 1918.

Here is some info from a place I fondly roamed in my earlier years and still visit.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/


As Dr. John Ray and I once discussed, most of the time the actual death rate is not enough to really effect anything. It was during the Bubonic Plague...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague


Yet, the bottom line is, it doesn't take 50,30, or a little as 15% to shut down our infrastructure. With a CFR of 5% - it would put the U.S. into chaos.

To sum this up.. is it a conspiracy? Well let's look at the facts...on the last Pandemic...in 2009

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

June 25, 2012 -- A study published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases Online First provides the first global estimates of how many people died as a result of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The study, co-authored by 9 members of the CDC Influenza Division, used an improved modeling approach which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people who perished worldwide from 2009 H1N1 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated. A disproportionate number of deaths occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa, where access to prevention and treatment resources are more likely to be limited. Study authors hope that this work can be used not only to improve how influenza deaths are estimated, but also to improve the public health response during future pandemics in parts of the world that suffer more influenza-related deaths.

These global estimates are more than 15 times higher than the number of laboratory-confirmed deaths reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO has acknowledged for some time that official, lab-confirmed reports are an underestimate of actual number of influenza deaths. Diagnostic specimens are not always collected from people who die with influenza; for others, influenza virus may not be detectable by the time of death. Because of these challenges, modeling is used to estimate the actual burden of disease.

comment: I know the actual cases in New York were upwards of 500,000 versus the few thousand CDC was reporting and nearly got me thrown off this site when I posted them. They fibbed. They knew there were more and months later they finally, finally admitted it.

So, now 8 years later - I do not trust the figures. For one, doctors are not required to report adult fatalities anymore - just children - nor do they have to report Flu cases. Usually these are lumped together with pneumonia like illnesses. So - we cannot have an accurate death count because they don't report them. As to cases - we are limited to a very small number of places where they take samples of people who come in. Those who do not come in - are not tested - are often many more. So the numbers of actual cases or deaths could be as much as 10x what is reported.

Paranoia - conspiracy. No. Just plain old don't ask - don't tell.

We know for a fact there were more deaths reported in Victoria in Australia than were reported in all of the country. Which means - the numbers are not accurate.

Final point: We need to know how bad it is getting so we can run and buy water and stock food before Walmarts are sacked. Those of us who believe in Crystalline vitamin C (cannot promote this and am not) take it and also get to a doctor who will give us an antiviral that is still effective. Many doctors will not prescribe them.

So - an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Prep for this winter. It could be nasty weather wise and Flu wise.  If it's not you can always pig out in the Spring and celebrate.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:51pm
Ришат - ваши сообщения будут удалены так быстро, как вы их пишете. Больше не тратьте свое время здесь.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:34pm
Xxxxxxxx is just Rishat, Med.  It is one of the many spam posts he covers our site in daily.  

I have deleted the post of his you quoted and translated, at the same time as banning his last username.  

Please do not encourage him.  Over the past week I have removed about 50 of his posts and banned about 10 of his aliases.  All the other mods are doing the same daily.  He makes more work for us than all of the other spammers combined.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:33pm
Please don't quote Rishat. The moderator group deletes his posts on a daily basis - far more often than other members probably realize - but the quote stays up unless we delete your post too. We try not give him the attention he's clearly seeking as it doesn't benefit the site to have someone treating the place as their own private message board.



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Med - I know you feel the media orchestrate a news blackout of flu related news every year, but most people don't think about influenza in the same way we do. Ask people on the street about the circulating strains, and they won't be able to name them because they don't care enough to find out. As an example, I was talking to the nurses manning a flu shot station at my doctor's office about H7N9, and none of them had even heard about it. I had to write it down so they could google it correctly.

It's not a conspiracy. It's just that the population in general have zero interest in flu outbreaks other than whether they'll personally catch it. The media gives us what we want to hear because the bottom line is that it's good for business.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Originally posted by xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx wrote:


У меня уникальный иммунитет. Даёт организму заразиться потом борется с болезнью. Болею гриппом в очень лёхкой форме. Мой иммунитет доказан. Заболел гриппом, болел 4 дня. На второй день сделал общий анализ крови, лейкоциты 9.0. Единственный симптом насморк.
Мусульманин. 3 раза в день принимаю тахарат в холодной водопроводной воде, а 2 раза в ледяной воде из артезианского источника, ноги мою раз в день но в тёплой воде, а это микро закаливание. Иммунитет хороший кто пьет воды от 2 до 3 литров день, а я пью от 3 до 5 литров день. Не работаю,молодой пенсионер 40 лет. Спокоен как удав. Нужна оценка
У меня иммунитет только против гриппа. Могу доказать. Сообщите при получении. Моим делом занимается Администрация Президента РФ. Мой иммунитет доказан через интернет. Живу в Альметьевск. У меня есть два анализа иммунограммы,доказывающие что могу победить вирус мечеган играючи      

Повышение и снижение уровня Т-лимфоцитов
Увеличение Т-лимфоцитов в иммунограмме указывает на гиперактивность иммунной системы      При норме от 600 до 2500 у меня 2835

Недостаточная активность Т-супрессоров ведёт к преобладанию влияния Т-хелперов, что способствует более сильному и ммунному ответу. При норме от450 до 850 у меня 1808. Т-киллеры, цитотоксические T-лимфоциты, CTL (от англ. to kill — убивать) — вид Т-лимфоцитов, осуществляющий лизис повреждённых клеток собственного организма. Мишени Т-киллеров — это клетки, поражённые внутриклеточными паразитами (к которым относятся вирусы и некоторые виды бактерий), опухолевые клетки. При норме от 270 до 540 у меня 945.           По словам иммунолога лимфоцитоз в результате повышенных т-хелперов. Иммунолог-алерголог может потвердить что у меня очень сильный иммунитет.


Translated:

I have unique immunity. Gives the body an infection and then struggles with the disease. I'm sick with the flu in a very slight form. My immunity is proved. I got sick with the flu, I was sick for 4 days. On the second day I made a general blood test, white blood cells 9.0. The only symptom is a runny nose.
Muslim. 3 times a day I take taharat in cold tap water, and 2 times in ice water from an artesian spring, my feet once a day but in warm water, and this is micro hardening. Immunity is good who drinks water from 2 to 3 liters a day, and I drink from 3 to 5 liters a day. I'm not working, a young pensioner is 40 years old. Quiet as a boa constrictor. Need an estimate
I have immunity only against the flu. I can prove it. Inform on receipt. My business is the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation. My immunity is proved through the Internet. I live in Almetyevsk. I have two immunogram analyzes, proving that I can defeat the virus of the swordfish playfully

Increase and decrease in the level of T-lymphocytes
The increase in T-lymphocytes in the immunogram indicates the hyperactivity of the immune system. At a rate of 600 to 2500, I have 2835

Insufficient activity of T-suppressors leads to the predominance of the influence of T-helpers, which contributes to a stronger and more mundane response. At a rate of 450 to 850, I have 1808. T-killers, cytotoxic T-lymphocytes, CTL (a type of T-lymphocytes that carry out lysis of damaged cells of their own organism). Targets of T-killers are cells afflicted with intracellular parasites (which include viruses and certain types of bacteria), tumor cells. At a rate of 270 to 540, I have 945. According to the immunologist, lymphocytosis as a result of elevated t-helpers. An immunologist-an allergist can confirm that I have very strong immunity.

comment: If you are going to post this, please do it in English. Most of us do not read Russian. I also have a unique immunity to Bird Flu having had it in West Virginia and my wife and I nearly died from it. Our blood probably has a unique substance which Dr. Niman (who has vanished) could have used to help the world.

I suggest you find yourself a willing virologist doing research, have them take your blood, and see what they can do. Good luck. Thank you for your input and this was a very interesting read for me. T-Cells and their effectiveness is important against a vast array of diseases including Cancer.

комментарий: Если вы собираетесь опубликовать это, пожалуйста, сделайте это на английском языке. Большинство из нас не читает русский язык. У меня также есть уникальный иммунитет к птичьему гриппу, который имел это в Западной Вирджинии, и моя жена и я чуть не умерли от этого. У нашей крови, вероятно, есть уникальное вещество, которое д-р Ниман (который исчез) мог бы использовать, чтобы помочь миру.
Я предлагаю вам найти желаемого вирусолога, проводящего исследования, заставить их взять вашу кровь и посмотреть, что они могут сделать. Удачи. Спасибо за ваш вклад, и это было очень интересно читать для меня. Т-клетки и их эффективность важны для широкого спектра заболеваний, включая рак.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:11pm
It certainly looks like it's going to be a bad flu season, but I haven't seen anything that gives me too much cause for concern.

Without diminishing the loss of life this time of year inevitably brings, I don't prep for a bad flu season. H1N1 and H7N9 make more far more nervous than H3N2. That's not to say it couldn't get it's pandemic credentials in time for this year, but I think it's a minor pandemic candidate at best.

Get your shot and you'll probably be fine.

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  • Trivalent influenza vaccine (
  • A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09–like virus
  • A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 [H3N2]-like virus
  • B/Brisbane/60/2008–like virus [Victoria lineage])

  • Quadrivalent influenza virus (includes three viruses listed for Trivalent vaccine + additional
  • B vaccine virus [B vaccine virus, a B/Phuket/3073/2013–like virus])

  • Recombinant influenza vaccine (both trivalent and quadrivalent)

U.S. 2017-2018 Flu Vaccine. 

CNN

An earlier onset this season contributed in part to the increase, the Australian Department of Health said in its surveillance report.

Influenza A (H3N2) is the predominant circulating influenza A virus nationally this year, and most of the deaths were due to this strain (81%).
"There are the A group of viruses and the B groups," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University. "The A groups are the ones that usually are responsible for large epidemics."
Though these A strains change periodically, they're the ones that cause pandemics, "whereas the B flu strains usually smolder along. They always cause illness -- it can be just as severe as the A strains -- but they don't produce large outbreaks," he said.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 11:49am
Originally posted by Penham Penham wrote:

I need to get my flu shot.


You are right. I am talking to over a dozen people in New York who already have this and it is bad. It has spread to their whole family and everyone who has visited them in a few weeks.

There is what appears to be a news blackout on reports of deaths in the U.S.  However with a little digging already people are dying from the "new Flu" i.e. a variant of the animal which has arrived from Australia.

https://www.ok.gov/health/Disease,_Prevention,_Preparedness/Acute_Disease_Service/Disease_Information/OK_Flu_View.html


Deaths Reported with Testing between August 2 - August 31, 2017 - 2

Influenza Season Week 38 ending September 23, 2017


Thirty-two human infections with novel influenza A viruses were reported by two states (Delaware [1] and Maryland [31]). Fourteen of these viruses have been fully characterized and are influenza A (H3N2) variant (H3N2v) viruses; the remaining 18 viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3v at the Maryland public health laboratory and further confirmatory testing is being performed by CDC to characterize these viruses.

To date, CDC has confirmed a total of 34 variant virus infections in the United States during 2017. Thirty-two of these were H3N2v viruses (Delaware [1], Maryland [13], North Dakota [1], Ohio [15], Pennsylvania [1], and Texas [1]) and two were influenza A (H1N2) variant (H1N2v) viruses (Ohio [2]). An additional 18 viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3v and further analysis is being conducted at CDC (Maryland [18]

From October 1st we have officially entered the 2017-2018 Flu Season in the U.S. Don't hold your breath for the first week map from CDC.

There are already outbreaks and virtually no mainstream media news coverage as yet.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2017 at 6:01pm
I need to get my flu shot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2017 at 11:17am
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Dang the high dose is tri not quad...oh well. I still may get sick. The A has hit Colorado starting in August. They are really pushing people to get the flu shot this year I mean really pushing. They have the Governor on TV getting his shot.

The government must know something we do not know!


They most certainly know - and forgive the drama - but when I was talking to the CDC yesterday as a "health professional" they hung up on me when I began to ask if the current vaccine was effective against the new emerging strains from Australia.

We are familiar here, veteran's of the 2009 Pandemic with twisted news from CDC denying hundreds of thousands of case in New York, with the "lag" of months reporting epidemics. They will come out months later and say "Yes, it was really bad back then" when reporting little during the crisis.

I was told by a person working a Madison in Wisconsin that if the vaccine doesn't work and people start getting the Flu in large numbers they simply tell people to SIP (Stay in Place).

It very well could be a very harsh winter coming upon us - despite all the cries of Global Warming - New York may have their worst in years as well as Chicago and other Northern States.

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Dang the high dose is tri not quad...oh well. I still may get sick. The A has hit Colorado starting in August. They are really pushing people to get the flu shot this year I mean really pushing. They have the Governor on TV getting his shot.

The government must know something we do not know!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 29 2017 at 12:20pm
We already have a rather dark omen as the Australian Flu Season is the worst it's been in 15 years. I have been told the virus is mostly h3n2 and it mutated in July.

The question is - how bad will it get in the coming September-May?  Just got off the phone from the CDC and they were willing to tell me a lot about when it was but when I got into what viral strains are covered by the new vaccine - it became a little less clear. One thing is for sure - there is a tri and quad form and depending on where you are- or where your access is for it -  you may not get the quad version.

What does it cover?What viruses will the 2017-2018 flu vaccines protect against?

There are many different flu viruses and they are constantly changing. The composition of U.S. flu vaccines is reviewed annually and updated as needed to match circulating flu viruses. Flu vaccines protect against the three or four viruses (depending on vaccine) that research suggests will be most common. For 2017-2018, three-component vaccines are recommended to contain:

  • an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (updated)
  • an A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (H3N2)-like virus
  • a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like (B/Victoria lineage) virus

Quadrivalent (four-component) vaccines, which protect against a second lineage of B viruses, are recommended to be produced using the same viruses recommended for the trivalent vaccines, as well as a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (B/Yamagata lineage) virus.


The question that first comes to mind is will it cover the current new strain coming from Australia?  If not - how bad could things get?  Also - how safe is it? There have been issues with vaccine safety in the past.



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