World War Three

DJ-Why should the US move out of the Middle East ?

The US got involved in a Syria (drought related/Arab Spring) uprising to get regime change. Assad was not willing to cooperate with a Qatar-Turkey-EU oil/gas transportroute the US wanted to keep the EU from buying Russian energy.

We are now 8 years further-that goal totally failed. Also US regimechange in Libya-with the goal to prevent Gadaffi introducing a pan-African currency (golden dinar) for energydeals-in competition with the US petro$ failed to get the US goal.

Due to the conflicts in Libya, Syria, Yemen (Afghanistan, Pakistan etc) other underlying conflicts came to the surface.

-The older Sunni-Shia conflict became more violent.
There is a Shia minority in Saudi Arabia NE (close to Iraq) that now may be getting more agressive against the Saudi "royal"family claiming to own the country. (The recent attacks against Saudi oil installations may have come from the Iraq/Saudi border area). Iran=Shia, KSA=Sunni

-Within the Sunni several new conflicts do show up.

Turkey-KSA on who is ruling the Islamic world, also the Turks are in conflict with the Kurds. KSA/USA is supporting those Kurdish groups, Turkey and Iran are fighting them.

KSA did intervene in Bahrain to keep the Sunni elite in power that is ruling over a Shia majority.

KSA did manage to get in conflict with Qatar, U.A.E Qatar now joining Iran in a border gasfield exploration.

Also the Yemen-war, with once Sudanese and Pakistani military fighting on the side of KSA is turning into a disaster for KSA (and the west supporting the KSA).

In the mean time China is the major energy importer in the world. The US became the largest oil producer (with Russia and KSA competing for #2).

Both KSA, Iran want to deal with China. (China is also investing in Venezuela oil industry-also under attack by the US).

Even Israel-that claims to have good relations with Russia (Putin and Netanyahu have more contact than Netanyahu has with Trump)-wants a share of the New Silk Road-trade between the EU and China.

When Iran wants to be part of the New Silk Road it can not move towards a military conflict with Israel or KSA openly.

Netanyahu convinced Putin to keep Iran 80 miles from Israeli borders-most likely diplomacy did bring more succes for Israel (talking with Putin) than military action did.

The US has forces in the North and South of Syria. With Turkey the US is now working for a security zone south of the Turkish border inside Syria. Erdogan wants to use that safe-zone to return (over 2 milion) Syrian refugees in Turkey.
The Kurds are not very happy with that-and are working more closer (including oil deals) with the Assad government. For the Kurds Russia may be providing protection against Turkey, Iran, Assad. A protection the US can not longer provide.

Israel and Saudi Arabia know they can not win a war with Iran on their own power. They do want the US to do that job for them. (So Israel can move towards a greater Israel, annexation of Golan Heights, parts of West Bank-maybe even other wars with Lebanon/Gaza. Saudi Arabia can regain the leading position in both religion and oil/gas.)

Realisticly-a US war with Iran would damage the US;

-It would turn out a much more expensive war than any other endless war the US did get involved in.
-The chances of that war turning into a nuclear conflict (Trump claims the US could "win" such a conflict) are very serious.
-The US may loose support from NATO members, the EU, even a lot of Arab/Muslim states. (Indonesia is more and more moving away from the US).
-Russia and China will support Iran. They may try to avoid open war between Russia/China and the US but organizations like the SCO may turn into a military pact faster (with even India, Pakistan-SCO members-turning against the US).

DJ-In my opinion it would be wise when Trump started to look for dialogue not confrontation. Russia managed to get involved in conflicts but still to be diplomatic above conflict. The US is party in a conflict and "out of communication" with to many enemies, in wars that never seem to end.

The US moving further into Middle East conflicts (to stop China) is moving the US against self-interest and-in the longer term will destroy the US.
A diplomatic offensive-Trump talking with major leaders around the globe-may be the wiser choice.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/organization-of-american-states-oas-votes-to-activate-rio-treaty-over-venezuela-crisis

DJ-New "contra's" (extreme right wing thugs armed by the cia) to "defend democracy" against "china oil deals". (Venezuela-and Iran-are main oil partners for China with major Chinese investments in their oil industry).

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/there-is-risk-of-nuclear-war-due-to-deterioration-of-global-stability-russian-deputy-fm/,

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-readies-forces-for-upcoming-latakia-offensive-video/

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israel-attacks-lebanon and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/hezbollah-lebanon-announces-intent-to-attack-israel-as-retaliation, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-iraq-to-respond-to-israeli-attacks-iranian-official/

DJ-Hal Turner is again claiming "world war 3" is coming. He even claims the EU and US would fight with Israel (Germany would stay neutral-HT seems to forget Germany = EU).

In my opinion Russia will offer protection to Iraq and Lebanon. Iran may be willing to sell their improved S300 missiles. It is bizarre western media, politics, think these kind of Israeli (with US backing) attacks in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq are "normal".

"The west" may call a reaction "agression", just like Yemen attacks in Saudi Arabia do get mentioned in western press, Saudi (backed by US, UK etc) genocide in Yemen is "no news".

Israeli claims that Iran was preparing attacks on Israel (while fighting in Syria, Iraq) are non sense. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sdf-calls-on-syrian-government-to-negotiate-with-them/ More likely the Kurds facing US-Turkish cooperation in NE Syria https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/turkey-centre-syria-safe-zone-fully-operational-190824182223857.html may start to feel betrayed by the US. (And fear the Turkish "safe zone" could be the beginning of further Turkish actions against Kurds in Syria.)

One of many reasons why the Kurds do not have Kurdistan (main reason=oil) is disagreement between (many) Kurdish groups. Syria was willing to stop Turkey in Afrin when Kurdish fighters were willing to accept the Assad government.

Kurds can not trust foreign powers, have to make their own realistic plans. The longer they wait the more likely Turkey and Iran may find agreement with Assad against the Kurds.

On the background Israeli attacks on Iran targets have to do with the US-China conflict. China keeps buying Iranian oil. (The G7 meeting=G6+US at the same moment is not a coincidence. Macron inviting Iran FM for talks https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/08/25/604455/Irans-foreign-minister-G7 may have shocked Trump into reality. )

DJ-Trump's stupidity is the major risk at the moment;

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/trump-deploys-a-new-label-for-china-s-xi-enemy and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/president-trump-orders-all-u-s-companies-out-of-china
Hal Turner's view may reflect the stupidity of Trump:
HAL TURNER COMMENTARY

This is going to be VERY good for those of us in the USA.   Companies will be scrambling to obtain manufacturing facilities here in the U.S. which means more US jobs and a return of the middle class.

It also means log term better results for American companies, who no longer have to give away Trade Secrets to China, only to have China leak those secrets to its own industries, then sell the same products cheaper, driving the US companies out of business. It's easy for China to have profitable companies when they get their products by stealing what American firms paid to develop.

The people who lined their pockets by shipping US jobs overseas are not going to be happy about this; expect to see flailing and hear gnashing of teeth as their greed gets reigned-in.

DJ-Why is this stupid ? Eur-Asia is a market of 4,5 billion people, the US is a market-in debt-of 330 million people. The US did start several wars the are not able to win.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-22/us-drown-world-oil oil production by fracking causes earthquakes, global warming and only makes a profit when the price is high. The US main ally is Saudi Arabia-also "adicted" to oil incomes.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/08/us-says-israel-bombed-iraq.html DJ-To avoid direct attacks in Iraq the US now is claiming Israel was behind recent attacks in Iraq (using US weapons and info).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-23/heres-what-expect-weekends-nightmare-g-7-summit The G7 has to "tolerate" Trump.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-23/greenland-last-chance-make-america-great-again The way Trump did deal with his (understandable) interest in Greenland is shocking.

DJ-The total lack of diplomacy, will to compromize, walking away from the Iran-deal, Paris-agreement, is damaging the US.

DJ-The US pushed for Russia-Iran-China (RIC) cooperation. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-12/escobar-how-tehran-fits-russia-china-strategy

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-14/china-prepares-its-nuclear-option-trade-war and https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/08/violent-protests-in-hong-kong-reach-their-last-stage.html

DJ-Agression would be the only correct word for US foreign policy against RIC. Since the US is also sanctioning or fighting Venezuela, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan (Iran and Turkey = 80 milion people each, Pakistan =205 milion people-"TIP" has more inhabitants than the US !) the RIC coalition is getting stronger.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-14/war-and-weapons-we-trust-militarization-has-become-americas-national-religion
DJ-The US view of the world has gotten pretty insane.

(And I am not anti-US-some (group of) nation(s) ends up "leading the world". Maybe the US in such a position may be better than China. But you need diplomacy more than military strenght.
You do not stay in the #1 position by being friendly, but also not by going to war with almost all other countries.)

Hong Kong

https://hongkong.liveuamap.com/

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-china-begins-military-invasion-of-hong-kong

https://sputniknews.com/world/201908101076517515-state-dept-says-china-must-halt-dangerous-media-reports-about-us-diplomat-in-hong-kong/

DJ-Some comments claim Hong Kong-ers realised only now what the 1997 transfer from the UK to PRC means. In one comment Shang Hai is supposed to become "a new (Chinese) Hong Kong".

Most likely "foreign agents" tried to influence protests (just like the uprising in Syria etc-in the beginning was real.) Hijacking demonstrations for other goals to start "revolutions" do most of the time end up in chaos.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-11/video-shows-live-fire-ring-out-kashmir-protests Indian occupation of Kashmir is ok for western "press", but in Hong Kong it is a crime.

DJ-https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/article/attack-on-iran-would-be-an-attack-on-russia/ is translated into https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/russia-gains-stranglehold-over-persian-gulf
(Do not know what to think of https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/sneak-attack-planned-against-us-navy-vessels-in-port-attackers-will-allegedly-be-british-navy-to start a war with Iran, China ?)

The US is behind https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/pakistan-prime-minister-is-the-world-prepared-for-a-nuclear-war supporting tensions between SCO members India and Pakistan to stop China (and Iran).

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/opinion/india-or-pakistan-kashmir-a-test-for-gulf-diplomacy/

DJ-Both India and Pakistan know they can not start a major war. Both face climate change major problems. Saudi Arabia is believed to be financing wahabist extremists-most likely in cooperation with the CIA-one may see an increase of IS activities in the region.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/trumps-blockade-begins-venezuela-says-food-shipment-blocked-panama-canal China is the main investor in Venezuelan oil.

DJ-The Russia-Iran-China coalition is getting stronger now Russia is alowed to use Iran ports. China-Pakistan cooperation-and Russian influence-may force India to "make Kashmir a place for (Chinese, Russian) investments. (The US is not in a position to stop the New Silk Road).

With Turkey and Iran as expected new SCO members https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation and the SCO also looking for "military cooperation to make bussiness possible" the SCO is becoming a "shared market"from the Russian-Norway border to Syria, China-NK border.

I (DJ) would not be surprised when Latin American countries also would show interest in membership of the SCO. Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela (later on Argentina, Brazil, smaller states) could make the SCO the "New World Order".

The EU has to deal with the SCO. The SCO https://ico.newsbtc.com/ico/sco-coin/ uses a digital currency based on a mix of SCO member currencies so no country can dictate the value.

http://eng.sectsco.org/

DJ-"The west(ern pseudo media)" does not realise how fast things are changing. The US policy of confrontation and trade wars, sanction, is a main factor-pushing most other countries out of the US trade relations.

Since Trump did not start "a new cold war" a new US president after Trump will not make the difference for most countries.
Asia has 4 billion people living in it, working with the EU, Africa and Latin America will be the end of the US-age.

https://www.rt.com/news/465795-india-scraps-kashmir-autonomy/

https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/

https://www.asiatimes.com/section/india/

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13395&start=40

DJ-India ending special status for Kashmir may be unacceptable for Pakistan. https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1158306267640815616

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bank-crisis-hits-pakistan-withdrawals-limited-to-18-69-a-week and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/india-putting-180-000-paramilitary-troops-into-kashmir-pakistan-mobilizing-army-and-air-force

DJ-Things between India and Pakistan can get out of control high speed. Both Russia and China will seek de-escalation. (The US may push for escalation to break the New Silk Road-China-plan. With also unrest in Hong Kong-for wich China also blames the US-Russia-Iran-China may be "pushed" to get the situation under control. )

US plans to blockade Venezuela, further Iran gulf actions, the US selling weapons to Taiwan destabilize the global situation further.

As a reminder China is the third party involved in the Kashmir crisis, there is a border dispute between India and China in that area as well. If a war breaks out Pakistan AND China will confront India (and the US ?).

DJ-Iran shot down US drone over Iran water, US tells UK to take Iran tanker in Gibraltar, Iran now takes UK tanker.

https://ejmagnier.com/2019/07/20/khameneis-three-commandments-for-the-iranians-the-middle-east-is-heading-towards-maximum-danger/?fbclid=IwAR16nJUJFhGDL-QM36sU8-N0G8-a1eSFjDY2jJXqn7Dyzds2YZFu1QkQaus:

The Middle East is heading for “maximum danger” following the “maximum pressure” imposed on Iran by US President Donald Trump who, unilaterally and unlawfully, withdrew over a year ago from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the nuclear agreement, and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran that Tehran considers a declaration of economic war. Trump’s move against Iran has provoked a gathering storm of tanker wars, the mutual detention of tankers by Iran and Britain. Indeed, the US administration has been pushing London to confront Iran starting from the capture of an Iranian super tanker (Grace 1) at Gibraltar on July 4, which has now triggered an Iranian tit-for-tat reaction (capturing a British tanker in the Straits of Hormuz). While the US and the UK are walking, along with Iran, on the edge of the abyss, the Iranian supreme leader, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, has publicly proclaimed “three points of guidance” for officials in the country, which includes a road map to follow even in his own absence.

Iran has detained a British oil tanker “Stena Impero” hours after the British High Court of Gibraltar announced the extension of an additional month of the arrest of Iranian tanker “Grace 1”, carrying two million barrels of oil. When this news reached the Iranian leadership, they realised that mediation efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron had stumbled and that it was time for Iran to take the matter in hand.

-

It is not unlikely that Tehran will set up ballistic missiles at close range to the enemies or countries that could be targeted by these missiles. Its allies will defend Iran at a moment’s notice.

The situation today is as follow: Iran has detained the British tanker “Stena Impero” along with its 23 crew members in Bandar Abbas pending the release of its carrier Grace 1. The US Central Command has announced that it is working with its allies to securefreedom of movement. Iran has threatened to not allow any oil exports from the Persian Gulf region if it cannot export its own oil. Tehran downed an American drone. Trump himself announced the shooting down of an unmanned Iranian drone –a claim Iran denies– thus placing himself on the same level as the Iranian IRGC- which Trump calls a terrorist group!

The US is sending new troops to Saudi Arabia, and Britain has sent additional war vessels in the Persian Gulf. All this deployment in a small area in the Middle East, a narrow strait that can hardly accommodate all these events. The region is heading towards maximum danger where all countries and allies are putting their hands on the trigger instead of going to the negotiating table and respecting the agreements signed. And what comes next may be even worse.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/07/britain-pirates-iranian-ship-grace-1-iran-responds-takes-british-tanker-hostage.html

https://www.debka.com/mystery-drone-attack-on-pro-iran-iraqi-militia-was-a-gamechanger-in-the-us-iran-standoff/

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-airways-suspends-flights-to-cairo-as-security-precaution/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/hezbollah-allegedly-preparing-for-war-with-israel-after-syrian-conflict-us-newspaper/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-is-prepared-to-reinvade-cyprus-if-needed-erdogan/

https://southfront.org/sdf-commander-in-chief-claims-russia-damascus-asked-for-military-support-in-idlib/ (DJ-Syria and Russia would like Kurds to stay part of Syria. When Kurds refuse Turkey may deal with the Kurds-and any force protecting them (including NATO allies).

DJ-Some of the headlines;
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-08/major-provocation-china-us-approves-sale-22-billion-weapons-taiwan,https://www.rt.com/news/463698-duterte-china-war-usa/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-08/iran-threatens-surpass-20-uranium-enrichment-after-iaea-confirms-45 and https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/07/pretty-please-trump-asked-iran-to-allow-him-to-bomb-it.html

https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/pentagon-report-russian-leaders-believe-they-are-already-at-war-with-the-united-states-in-the-gray-zone/?utm_source=Newsletter%20070819&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=PentagonReport_07052019

https://www.rt.com/news/463714-russia-india-submarine-su57-deals/

Again-the US know they can not win an open war with Russia-Iran-China (R-I-C). So the US via tarifs, sanctions, proxies is fighting "R-I-C" in covert wars with frontlines from Libya, Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Ukraïne, Kashmir, Baluchistan, Afghanistan, South China Sea/Hong Kong.

From time to time the "covert" war gets close to "open" war. Sooner or later things get out of control and we end up in a major conflict.

(DJ-The US (and the EU, Russia, China etc.) should deal more with the growing food crisis in the US and the effect that will have on the globe. The US is the main agriculture exporter (Dutch are second). Due to flooding in the US, climate collapse around the globe, the number of refugees may explode !

We did see temperatures in France one would expect in Saudi Arabia. An extreme heatwave could make hundreds of millions of people move. A border wall is not the answer-trying to slow down climate change, diseases (ebola is just one of many) etc may be a batter answer.)

From https://www.facebook.com/pepe.escobar.77377:
SHADOWPLAY UPDATE

One of my top intel sources wrote me that around a month ago he was told by Iranian intel that they were not being helped by ANYONE.

This only confirms what I have been stressing in my writings; the game-changer was that fateful Putin-Xi-Modi-Rouhani meeting in Bishkek, and what Putin and Xi have been discussing afterwards.

My source also told me he was talking to the Chinese today; "I am advising all sides" - meaning Russia, China and Iran.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-05/escobar-un-submersible-us-iran-stalemate

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-04/syria-and-iran-defy-sanctions-building-railway-tehran-mediterranean

DJ-Again-Iran is part of a much bigger plan. Ear-Asian integration, trade outside US$ control, major weapondeals-all without any role for (at least) the US.

https://www.debka.com/__trashed-6-copy/High alert in US, British Navies after UK marines seize Iranian oil tanker.
https://www.debka.com/mivzak/un-nuclear-watchdog-meeting-on-iran-called-by-us-russia-mocks/
(DJ-The US/Israel goal is to make Iran oil export to the EU-by ship impossible. The US and Israel would like to claim Iran is breaking the Iran-deal so the EU would have to move towards the US/Israel side-get out of the Iran-deal. In fact if Iran is still acting in the Iran-deal or not is beside the point. The US left the Iran-deal, put sanctions and made the Iran-deal impossible. The EU has to make up its mind on how to do "international trade" -with both Iran, Russia, China AND the US/UK (under boris-sociopath-johnson). The US effort of "forcing" the EU to stick on sanctions against Iran, Russia, China is "eroding". The EU may find a way-via a.o. Turkey-to do indirect bussiness. When the US is putting to much sanctions on the EU-in a new round of trade wars-most likely the EU may move away from the US even further.)https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-5-2019-british-marines-seized-iranian-oil-tanker/

DJ-The more time passes-the more Iran becomes integrated into Ear-Asia defense plans. The less likely any (US, Israeli a.o.) attack can make much difference.

Iran oil-trade-partly-will go "underground" and reach the international oil market as Iraq, Russian, Syrian oil. When Russia, India, China, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria all do all kind of deals with Iran US sanctions-in the long run-damage the US.

(DJ-The EU bocot of Russia with fruits meant Russia started growing those fruits themselves, imported them from (a.o.) Turkey (and now most likely also Iran can export to Russia, China). The fruit-export of the EU was damaged-"we" lost a major market-export from EU to China grew not enough to compensate for losing the Russian market.

India is a major medical supplier-"goods for oil" may see Iran exchanging oil for India medical goods.

Turkey and Russia working on the (new) S500, possibly Russian S400 to Iran is a nightmare for the west. When Turkey, Qatar close US bases in their country the US has to fall back on Saudi, Israel bases. )

DJ-Not much "new news" on the "subs-incident" near Alaska. https://www.debka.com/the-mystery-of-the-ultra-secret-russian-losharik-submarine-disaster/

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/07/on-eve-of-4th-of-july-parade-us-attempts-to-lure-iran-into-shooting-down-another-us-plane.html,
https://ejmagnier.com/2019/07/02/trump-imagines-a-quick-us-war-with-no-plan-b-but-overlooks-irans-possible-plan-b/
DJ-There seems to be a constant push for war with Iran. But so far no one is willing to start such a war out of fear for the consequences. (DJ-Again both Russia and China will not accept military action against Iran-see it as an attack on their region, EurAsia-integration plans.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/trump-says-us-should-join-great-currency-manipulation-game-devaluing-dollar
DJ-Due to US sanctions against over half the world the market for the US dollar is shrinking. Maybe Trump should stop his sanctions ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/united-states-net-oil-exporter-dirty-little-secret

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/iranium-confusion-part-2-what-we-know-what-we-know-we-dont-know-and-what-we-wish-we

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/technocrats-and-neocons-respond-polar-silk-road

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/us-versus-china-tariff-war-economic-war

DJ-The risk for "war by accident" is unacceptable high. From the Arctic to the South China Sea, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya one "small incident" could escalate out of control. The US is "defending" the only-superpower-status in a military way-and getting to much overstretched while Russia, Iran, China win via diplomacy (and due to US "sanctions on the world").

DJ-Do not know what to think of this; https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-vice-president-ordered-to-immediately-return-to-white-house-for-unspecified-emergency

(DJ-Speculation on sinking subs, unexplained "earthquakes" in Iran ???
If there would have been an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran (causing these quakes https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us700048gw/executive second one "false"?) there would have been an Iranian reaction.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-braces-for-military-escalation-with-iran-fm/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-warns-iran-will-be-hit-hard-in-war/

https://www.debka.com/will-israel-expand-its-strikes-on-iranian-targets-from-syria-to-iraq/, https://www.debka.com/mivzak/urgent-consultations-in-washington-moscow-on-reported-us-russian-submarines-in-firefight/:

Urgent consultations in Washington, Moscow on reported US-Russian submarines in firefight
Jul 2, 2019 @ 22:24 Diane Shalem
First reports reaching DEBKAfile’s military sources say that a US submarine intercepted a Russian nuclear sub in American waters opposite Alaska. The Russian sub escorting the nuclear submarine responded with a Balkan 2000 torpedo and scuttled the US vessel. Urgent consultations in both the White House and the Kremlin were taking place on Tuesday night. US Vice President Mike Pence called off an appearance in New Hampshire after being recalled to Washington for a conference called by President Donald Trump without explanation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin cancelled an engagement and headed for the Kremlin to confer with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and military chiefs, after learning that 14 submariners died in a fire that broke out on a nuclear-powered “experimental submarine in Russian waters.” This account carried in Russian media varies in most respects from the first reports reaching this site and may refer to a separate incident. They report between 14 and 17 members of an AS-12 nuclear powered submarine died of poisonous fumes caused by a fire aboard the vessel. The submarine was described as experimental and unarmed but often used in spy missions. It is unclear how many of the 25 crew survived. Local media suggest four or five are receiving treatment in Severomorsk’s military hospital for poisoning and concussion injuries. Another news account said the majority of the officers died in or on their way to hospital. These reports do not cite the cause of the fire.

From RT:

https://www.rt.com/russia/463228-7-captains-2-heroes-killed-fire/:
On Monday, a Russian Navy’s deep sea research vessel caught fire during a planned operation aimed at exploring the seabed in the Russian territorial waters.

The Russian Investigative Committee launched an investigation into the incident. The Russian Navy also initiated its own probe led by the Navy head, Nikolay Evmenov. The cause of the fire remains unknown so far.

Meanwhile, the director of the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Per Strand, told Reuters citing unnamed Russian officials that the fire on board of the Russian vessel was allegedly caused by a gas explosion. He added that his agency did not detect any abnormal levels of radiation following the incident.

The Russian Defense Ministry promptly dismissed the report by Reuters as it said that it did not inform any Norwegian officials about the incident.

DJ-It looks like at least one serious incident took place. Most likely between US and Russian subs.

Israel may plan to attack Iran targets in Iraq. With the excuse of "Iran working on a nuclear weapon". Yesterday Hal Turner claimed "possibly an F35 was shot down, crashed in North-Turkish held-Cyprus. The official story is that it was an S200 air-defense missile.

When F35's can be shot down with S200/S300 missiles "the west" has basicly no "air superiority" left in the Middle East. This could trigger a lower treshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13371&sid=429258c84fcbc237123ceb44a6823f27

DJ-I hope the quake in Iran was natural. It was an accident that did damage to a Russian sub. The crash in Cyprus was NOT a F35. In any other scenario the world is moving into a minefield.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-02/does-iran-already-have-nuclear-weapons (DJ-If Israel believed Iran had nuclear weapons there would be war.)

DJ-Welcome in the second halve of 2019 ! Starting with major Israeli airstrikes-just after the G20 in Japan-on Syria. https://www.debka.com/damascus-israeli-air-naval-forces-hit-10-syrian-iranian-hizballah-targets/. Timing may have been wrong. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/major-israeli-airstrikes-syria-just-s-300-missiles-were-reported-operational

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-military-aircraft-shot-down-over-cyprus-possibly-israeli-after-bombing-syria DJ-If indeed a (older) S300 can bring down a JSF-F35 this is major damage for US weapons sale. (But story may stay unconfirmed-since the F35 was supposed to be the "best of the best").

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-libyan-national-army-declares-war-on-turkey and https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/russian-military-intervenes-after-deadly-clashes-between-syrian-turkish-armies, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-prevented-deadly-confrontation-between-syrian-turkish-forces-in-nw-hama/
DJ-Turkey overstretching its role ?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-ready-to-deliver-s-400-system-to-iran-report/ DJ-Iran already has S300-wich may be effective against F35 (and F22 ????). If this is the case both US, KSA and Israel may find themselves "limited" in effective weapons.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/zuesse-civil-war-now-america ;Concerning foreign policies, and domestic policies, Republican Party billionaires hate especially Iran, and especially all progressivism.

By contrast, concerning foreign policies, and domestic policies, Democratic Party billionaires hate especially Russia, and accept some progressivism. (DJ-The US is run by 385 billionaires-not a democracy.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/tucker-carlson-trumps-side-korea-where-was-bolton, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/2020-democrats-slam-trumps-north-korea-visit
DJ-It is a nice gesture-but when there is no agenda behind it it is an empty act, a show.

DJ-Good summary https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-26/trump-war-president-or-anti-interventionist:

Visualizing 150 Iranian dead from a missile strike that he had ordered, President Donald Trump recoiled and canceled the strike, a brave decision and defining moment for his presidency.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence had signed off on the strike on Iran as the right response to Tehran’s shootdown of a U.S. Global Hawk spy plane over the Gulf of Oman.

The U.S. claims the drone was over international waters. Tehran says it was in Iranian territory. But while the loss of a $100 million drone is no small matter, no American pilot was lost, and retaliating by killing 150 Iranians would appear to be a disproportionate response.

Good for Trump. Yet, all weekend, he was berated for chickening out and imitating President Barack Obama. U.S. credibility, it was said, has taken a big hit and must be restored with military action.

By canceling the strike, the president also sent a message to Iran: We’re ready to negotiate. Yet, given the irreconcilable character of our clashing demands, it is hard to see how the U.S. and Iran get off this road we are on, at the end of which a military collision seems almost certain.

Consider the respective demands.

Monday, the president tweeted:

“The U.S. request for Iran is very simple — No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!”

But Iran has no nuclear weapons, has never had nuclear weapons, and has never even produced bomb-grade uranium.

According to our own intelligence agencies in 2007 and 2011, Tehran did not even have a nuclear weapons program.

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA, the only way Iran could have a nuclear weapons program would be in secret, outside its known nuclear facilities, all of which are under constant U.N. inspection.

Where is the evidence that any such secret program exists?

And if it does, why does America not tell the world where Iran’s secret nuclear facilities are located and demand immediate inspections?

“No further sponsoring of terror,” Trump says.

But what does that mean?

As the major Shiite power in a Middle East divided between Sunni and Shiite, Iran backs the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s civil war, Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, Alawite Bashar Assad in Syria, and the Shiite militias in Iraq who helped us stop ISIS’s drive to Baghdad.

In his 12 demands, Pompeo virtually insisted that Iran abandon these allies and capitulate to their Sunni adversaries and rivals.

Not going to happen. Yet, if these demands are nonnegotiable, to be backed up by sanctions severe enough to choke Iran’s economy to death, we will be headed for war.

No more than North Korea is Iran going to yield to U.S. demands that it abandon what Iran sees as vital national interests.

As for the U.S. charge that Iran is “destabilizing” the Middle East, it was not Iran that invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, overthrew the Gadhafi regime in Libya, armed rebels to overthrow Assad in Syria, or aided and abetted the Saudis’ intervention in Yemen’s civil war.

Iran, pushed to the wall, its economy shrinking as inflation and unemployment are rising, is approaching the limits of its tolerance.

And as Iran suffers pain, it is saying, other nations in the Gulf will endure similar pain, as will the USA. At some point, collisions will produce casualties and we will be on the up escalator to war.

Yet, what vital interest of ours does Iran today threaten?

Trump, with his order to stand down on the missile strike on Iran, signaled that he wanted a pause in the confrontation.

Still, it needs to be said: The president himself authorized the steps that have brought us to this peril point.

Trump pulled out of and trashed Obama’s nuclear deal. He imposed the sanctions that are now inflicting something close to unacceptable if not intolerable pain on Iran. He had the Islamic Revolutionary Guard declared a terrorist organization. He sent the Abraham Lincoln carrier task force and B-52s to the Gulf region.

If war is to be avoided, either Iran is going to have to capitulate, or the U.S. is going to have to walk back its maximalist position.

And who would Trump name to negotiate with Tehran for the United States?

The longer the sanctions remain in place and the deeper they bite, the greater the likelihood Iran will respond to our economic warfare with its own asymmetric warfare. Has the president decided to take that risk?

We appear to be at a turning point in the Trump presidency.

Does he want to run in 2020 as the president who led us into war with Iran, or as the anti-interventionist president who began to bring U.S. troops home from that region that has produced so many wars?

Perhaps Congress, the branch of government designated by the Constitution to decide on war, should instruct President Trump as to the conditions under which he is authorized to take us to war with Iran.

DJ-Iran has no nuclear program and is not a sponsor of terrorism (Saudi Arabia has both). Demanding from Iran to stop doing things it is not doing or face all out economic destruction (as far as the US can create so) is insane.

It pushes "the world" to deal outside the grasp of the US and in that way is damaging the US-on the long term-even more than Iran.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/trump-seeks-coalition-of-the-willing-against-iran.html and https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/majority-of-us-citizens-would-approve-preventive-nuclear-strike-on-north-korea.html

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/top-iran-military-adviser-threatens-to-erase-israel-if-war-breaks-out (DJ-Giving Israel (etc) an excuse for "preventative action") and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/iran-new-us-sanctions-are-permanent-closure-of-diplomacy-that-leaves-open-only-war

https://www.rt.com/news/462651-trump-iran-overwhelming-obliteration/, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-25/why-media-pushing-war (US elite united against Trump ?)

https://theduran.com/why-did-trump-defy-warmongers-and-decide-not-to-attack-iran-video/ DJ-Is Trump one of the few "US leaders" against war with Iran ? Why no diplomacy, why war ? Is the US not able to talk ?

DJ-The outlook is insane. With most "partners" sticking to the Iran-deal the US seems to be preparing for war.

Of course such a war would end the chances for Trump to get reelected-but at what price ? Such a war against Iran would give (more) power to Russia and China, push India https://www.rt.com/news/462655-india-s400-mike-pompeo/ further towards "EurAsian integration". https://sputniknews.com/asia/201906251076046306-russia-india-china-meet-on-g-20-sidelines-to-have-long-term-policy-implications/

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/trump-is-afraid-of-a-shooting-war-but-iran-has-also-other-means-to-damage-him.html DJ-The strait of Hormuz is a main oil-transport route. Making oil production and transportation harder will effect the global market. Still the US-Iran's main enemy-will only be effected limited since the US-for now-is the largest oil/gas producer in the world. Pushing up energy prices will make energy production in the US make profits.

From that point of view LOW energyprices will damage the US, KSA more than high prices will. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-21/conflict-iran-quickly-spirals-out-control-oil-gold-surge-higher (DJ-Maybe the goal of this "conflict" is pushing up fossil fuel prices-war may be unwanted by both US, KSA and Iran, Russia-all would profit from higher energy prices. Would also fit in with climate plans-so producers of solar panels EU, China etc. may accept the strategy ?)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-22/trump-ordered-secret-cyber-attacks-iran-alternative-war-thursday-night, https://www.debka.com/a-new-us-iran-hot-line-more-a-channel-for-miscommunication-than-dialogue/-andhttps://www.debka.com/mivzak/bolton-arrives-in-israel-for-talks-with-netanyahu-on-iran-tensions/

DJ-Who is in control in the White House. What are the US goals ? When the US wants to be "the only superpower" is moving towards conflict with "the rest of the world" a possible route to that goal ? (And is it realistic ?)
Of course Iran is good at cyber-warfare as well.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-22/chinas-aircraft-carrier-battle-group-emerges
DJ-For me one of the main questions is how relations between Russia, China, India and Iran will develop. Does Iran wants to move closer to EurAsia-integration ? Does Iran want to be a main country in a Islamic group of countries (with Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, North Africa) ?

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/trump-fires-shanahan-pompeo-for-sec-def-bolton-to-state.html, https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/shanahan-out-as-acting-defense-secretary-trump-building-wartime-cabinet (and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/iran-war-unavoidable-if-u-s-does-not-lift-sanctions)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-18/escobar-iran-center-eurasian-riddle

DJ-A US attack on Iran will be unacceptable for both Russia and China. Most likely the US will get damaged most-I (DJ) do not see how such a US attack can stay limited.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-16/did-b-team-overplay-its-hand-iran, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-17/irans-uk-ambassador-unfortunately-we-are-heading-towards-confrontation-us
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/iran-to-exceed-some-nuclear-deal-limits-eu-under-pressure-to-fulfill-its-commitments.html

DJ-The basic conflict is on "who runs the planet" the US/west or Russia-China.

For the US it is a major problem that 5 billion of the 7,2 billion people live in EurAsia. More and more trade and transport is over land (from railways to pipelines). The US has a major strenght at sea and in the air-but for the (trade)wars that is not very helpfull.

Meanwhile both Israel and Saudi Arabia/Gulf States have a "double signal". They want the US to move towards (almost) conflict with Iran (and with that China, India). On the other hand both are doing major deals with Russia and China.

DJ-I think the US (and UK under boris johnson) may think twice before getting into major conflict. History tells that moving into such a conflict is an effective way of losing an empire. (The UK lost India, the Dutch Indonesia, France, Belgium their colonies after W.W.2).

As a bussinessman trump should know that talks-not wars-are the way to deal with conflicts.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/14/598490/Iran-Rouhani-world-stability-trump-SCO-Summit DJ-Yesterday Gulf of Oman attacks, today Iran at SCO meeting....no coincident.

https://www.rt.com/news/461873-iran-attack-oman-blame-war/ Cui bono ? Who does have interest in the Oman attacks ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-14/dire-straits-oman
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-proof-iran-caught-red-handed-removing-mis-fired-mine-from-ship-hull-in-gulf-of-oman (DJ-The comments may be more intelligent than HT-this time.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_G20_Osaka_summit 28-29 june will see the G20 in Osaka-Japan. The SCO (a.o.) is getting much more important than the "old" G20.

http://thesaker.is/why-trump-now-wants-talks-with-iran/
Iran has the global economy "under control" by controling the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.rt.com/news/461821-us-destroyer-tankers-incident/, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-13/us-claims-smoking-gun-video-evidence-irans-navy-handling-mine-tanker-hull

DJ-I do not believe Iran was behind the attack on the tankers in the Gulf of Oman. When the US is thinking of further escalation they need more support than just Israel and a few Gulf States.

Even https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13300&start=70 most members do not agree-for now-with the US claims.

https://www.rt.com/news/461819-clark-serbia-kosovo-russia/ The US is putting extra military in Poland, Balkan (SE Europe)-confronting Russia. The US seems to be unable to have decent talks with China, Iran...

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/seven-reasons-to-be-highly-skeptical-of-the-gulf-of-oman-incident-48958389f53e?fbclid=IwAR3k3IdyDZDqRDXlvgP1zW3B9UN7h5NaIiXJQNWpgca4UiCZDs8UC8p2s5I

(DJ-It is very unlikely that Iran would attack a ship with a-partly-Russian crew during the visit of Japan PM Abe to Iran. Iran has a few-very highly monitored-submarines. Any sea-mines would have been detected by other shipping. For now it looks like some sort of false flag by the US-Saudi-Israel coalition.)

https://southfront.org/cruise-missile-strike-on-saudi-airport-marks-start-of-new-round-of-escalation-in-middle-east/ DJ-If Yemen forces were behind an attack most likely they would destroy the port, refineries etc.

https://www.debka.com/explosions-reported-on-two-supertankers-carrying-gulf-oil/

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13300&start=40

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/13/598402/Oil-tankers-Oman-Sea-Iran-rescue-44-crew

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-13/2-tankers-damaged-after-suspected-torpedo-attack-near-strait-hormuz-oil-soars and https://southfront.org/mysterious-attacks-on-oil-tankers-near-persian-gulf-continue-photos/

DJ-Both Israel and KSA-US-blame Iran for "incidents" in the gulf region, Yemen-attacks on KSA airports. "Some groups" may try to force an escalation with the US getting in war with Iran as the-for them welcome-outcome. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/todays-attacks-on-ships-in-the-gulf-of-oman-are-not-in-irans-interest.html

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/13/598405/US-using-Hong-Kong-protests-to-discredit-China DJ-No doubt the US will support "pro-democracy demonstrations" in China (Russia, Iran etc.) just like they did in Venezuela. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-12/wto-warns-global-trade-may-plunge-17-full-trade-war and https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-12/putin-sets-table-leave-dollar-behind (DJ-"Dumping the US$" for international trade by several countries is extremely damaging for the US. Part of the value of the US$ comes from the $ being "covered" by energy and trade. )

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-june-12-2019-israeli-military-continues-strikes-on-syria/

DJ-Using an (unclear) report https://www.debka.com/two-syrian-rockets-or-shells-fired-at-israeli-hermon-positions/ of two "explosions" in the occupied Golan Heights (under international law NOT part of Israel) are an excuse for Israel for (large scale) attacks on Syria.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-02/10-pro-assad-forces-killed-major-overnight-israeli-airstrikes, https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/t4-base-in-syria-under-attack-now, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrias-t-4-airbase-comes-under-attack-likely-israeli-strikes/

In the mean time;https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-houthi-forces-unleash-big-missile-attack-on-saudi-coalition-bases-in-southern-yemen/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-houthi-forces-fire-ballistic-missiles-into-southern-saudi-arabia/

DJ-Both "fronts" may be related with https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/massive-syrian-army-convoy-heads-to-northeast-latakia-for-kabani-offensive/ the operations to deal with (western backed) jihadi terrorists in NW Syria.

(No doubt that both Israel-military integrated-though not member-in nato and KSA are operating with full US/UK/Nato support).

Maybe "large scale western military action in Syria and Yemen" may be seen as putting pressure on Russia-Iran-China. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-02/escobar-warns-its-far-quiet-us-vs-russia-china-front

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/cnn-sees-saudi-success-in-disunited-gulf-summits-that-made-no-new-statements.html:
Said differently - the two summits Anderson is so exited about were nothingburgers. Their statements were similar to the once made before and the GCC and the Arab League still lack the capacity to act together on any serious issue. That they call on outsiders to tackle Iran says all one needs to know. The OIC summit was outright hostile to the U.S. and Saudi plans for the destruction of Palestine.

As long as U.S. media deliver such bad 'analysis' of foreign state positions, the policies derived from it will continue to be unrealistic.

https://eand.co/half-of-americans-are-effectively-poor-now-what-the-c944c518db6a?fbclid=IwAR3EASwXc3G3F-slfzRknxEQrmYnMS9G5bBeGcuJ88az7-c1dKEJoZyrym8

DJ-Failing politics for decades-supporting a rich elite-make the US more and more a third world country. (With 25% of all global prisoners in US prisons, the US in the same list as China, Iran, KSA for death penalties, life expectency and healthcare better in Cuba than in the US.)