Stockpiling Food/Water/etc

    Having been in the flu discussion forum world for over a year now, I find time and time again that there is a serious misconception about stockpiling.
I see in the thread at
http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4511
that a few people think that 2 or 3 months stockplies may do.
It certainly will not. Nowhere near.

If the BF goes H2H airborne aka pandemic then a stockplie will have to be possibly of a year. We should all plan for a worst case scenario.
we are told that once it does go efficient H2H, it will take AT LEAST 6 months to develop a vaccine, then it has to be mass manufactured and delivered to a world that is torn apart New Orleans style. That has got to be a minimum of 6 to 9 months supply, more sensibly a year, possibly more.

Having a 3 months supply is living on a prayer. For 3 months to be enough, there would have to be a vaccine at your door within that time and we are told by the PTB that is simply not going to be possible.

Also very, very important is to only stockpile gooda that do not rely on utilities in their storing and cooking.
In a worst case scenario, there will be nobody showing up for work at the power companies so things like your cooker and refridgerator won't be working.

A cooking stove is a must and by defintion a 6 to 12 month stockpile of fuel (coal/wood)to power it.
Who's going to have any when you run out? or will you risk the flu by going into the nearest wood with an axe?

And don't forget toothpaste and toilet rolls!

:)

Kev0-

In an ideal world, we'd all have a year's worth in our pantry. But in an ideal world, I'd look like George Clooney, too.  Fraid that's not gonna happen.

While the female members of this forum are undoubtedly grieving over that shocking revelation, let's just say that any level of prepping is better than none.  Right now, we don't know if a pandemic will occur, and if it does, to what level it will rise.

In a worst case scenario, more is better than less. Granted.  But let's be real. Not everyone can afford, or find a place to store, a years worth of food.  And in a worst case scenario, a year's worth might be too little.

If you've got a weeks worth stored up,  then work to increase that to a month. When you get there, then try for two months.  After that, you might go for 4 months. Maybe you reach a year, maybe you don't.  Do what you can.  But I don't accept the idea that having less than the optimum is suicidal.







 

I agree Fla Medic.  I currently have a (short) month  but am increasing it.  COnsidering I only started last Monday, I am doing pretty well.   I write date of purchase and ex date on each food item (if known).

Here is an excellent artical on the 1918 flu pandemic and steps that were takin...

muskrat wrote: Here is an excellent artical on the 1918 flu pandemic and steps that were takin... http://northernblue.ca/cblog/index.php?/archives/476-Canada-and-the-1918-Flu-Pandemic.html

Thanks for that.
50 million died worldwide.

That's 50 million with no such thing as air tarvel
50 million with a 2.5% mortality rate.

We have air travel and a present H5N1 mortality rate of 52% and a 6 to 9 month wait for a vaccine and anti - virals that may or may not be much good.

I'm upping my preps to a year!!
    

Kev0 and MerritJohn,

I'm certainly not opposed to stocking for a year.  But I do fear that many people, when they hear that doing anything less is futile, will simply not prepare at all.  I'd rather encourage people to do what is possible, than to give them a task they may well never attempt. 

But by all means, if you can do it, stockpile for a year.


As far as a vaccine being available in a year, that is pretty optimistic. If you are expecting a year's supply to carry you thru until a vaccine is available, you are likely to be dissappointed.

Here's why:

While a suitable vaccine might be developed in six months, we don't have the production capability today to make anywhere near enough to innoculate the world. Most of the vaccine manufacturers are overseas, and we will have to compete in a global marketplace for any vaccine stockpiles. 

Yearly production capabilities worldwide for vaccines currently don't produce enough vaccines to innoculate 10% of the world.

Complicating matters, consider the following:

1.  The virus is mutating rapidly.  If it goes pandemic, this will likely increase the rate of mutation.  A vaccine produced and manufactured in June will likely be largely ineffective by December.  The two strains of the vaccine currently under produciton are from Vietnam and Indonesia, and neither are expected to confer much immunity.

2.   The WHO and CDC now recognize two different clades of the virus, and others will no doubt be verified.  This greatly decreases the odds that any one vaccine will work. A multi-valent vaccine might work. But once again, the mutations will likely render that point moot.

3.    While cellular reproduction methods are being tested, they are experimental, and their safety is not yet assured. 

But hey, let's say we develop a miracle vaccine, and somehow manage to produce it in quantity.  That's just the beginning.

In 1976, I was part of the Swine Flu innoculation program, having been attached to the Health Department.  Innoculating the country was seen as a national priority, and innoculation centers were set up all across the country. Shopping malls, schools, hospital parking lots, community centers . . .you name it.

We learned a lot about mass innoculations from this experience. And remember, all of this was done before a pandemic had occured. People were worried, but not panicked.  We had our full infrastructure available. Imagine trying to do this if trucks are not rolling, gas is in short supply, and chaos abounds.

First, everybody showed up the first day for an innoculation!  The lines stretched for blocks, and the wait in line was for hours.  Many people left after 3 or 4 hours in line, and vowed to return the next day. 

This pattern lasted for about a week.  At the end of the day, there were people who were turned away. Sometimes we ran out of vaccine. One day, our pneumatic injection gun died.  We discovered there was no good way to coordinate having people show up in manageable numbers.

After a week, many people gave up trying.  Sure, some drifted in to get their shots, but many simply decided it wasn't worth the hassle. 

Then the first reports of `side effects' made the news.  3 people in Philadelphia dropping dead after getting their shots (probably a coincidence, btw).  Stories of paralysis (Guillian-Berre Syndrome) made the papers, and suddenly, we couldn't give away the shots.  In 8 weeks of concerted effort, we innoculated 20% of the country.  About 40 million people.  Then the program was halted because of the side effects of the vaccine.

Now, try doing this in a pandemic.  Everybody is hunkered down. The infrastructure has erroded.  And to innoculate the public, people are going to have to come out and stand in line for hours, possibly risking exposure.

How civil and cooperative do you think the crowds, lining up for their shot, are likely to be?  Would you really risk it? 

Most vaccines require 2 weeks to achieve immunity. Some of the vaccines under discussion will require 2 shots, given a month apart.  But whether we're talking 2 weeks, or 4, the recipiant is unprotected. 

The logistics of dispensing a vaccine, when no one was sick, or risked infection by standing in line, were enormous.  Trying to do so in the midst of a pandemic, well let's be kind, and say it would be even more problematic.
 

I would love to be proven wrong on this. Really.  But, IMHO,  unless you're in the government, or are considered an essential worker, the odds that you will receive a vaccine before the pandemic has run its course are slim.

Now, if you're thinking you can wait out a pandemic until it has mutated into a milder strain, then you may have a point.  That, while not a certainty, is possible. But for now, I regard talk of a vaccine, available to the masses, as Happy Talk. Designed to appease the populace.

Most people, I suspect, will find at some point they will simply have to confront this virus.  Find out if they have immunity (70% did in 1918), or see if they can survive it. 

Being prepped gives you a lot of options. You can defer exposure for as long as possible.  And you can avoid the potentially dangerous activities of going out and foraging for food.

Like I say, I'd like to be wrong on this. Maybe we get lucky. But logistically, I expect a vaccine is a long way off.

    Great mail Fla Medic.
I'm not sure that Iaccept something is better than nothing because if that something isn't going to do it then maybe nothing may actually be better than something!!
If someone has had the mind to consider things and stock up for 3 months, then they're already 'in' the right mind. Once these same people study the facts, they will realise that 6 months is the bare minimum and may aim for that before going for a 12 months plus.

Only getting 3 months supplies is like being 10 miles away from dropped nuke. You don't die straight away but a month or two later. You may as well have been at ground zero(no supplies) or a 1000 miles away (1 year plus supplies)

I agree with your vaccine time estimate. If a WCS occurs then we may need at least a years supply and in that time need to read and learn as much about self sufficiency and growing our own food as is possible.
If and I do say if on this one, H2H transmission is as virulent as some predict, it would be very unlikely that society, particularly western society, ever returns to what it was before/is now and we will all need some level of 'survival' skills which means much more than knowing how to handle a handgun.

A lot of choices ahead.

About the vaccine, are we assuming that the labs will have power for 6-12 months and that none of the limited number of people who would make the vaccine will get sick or choose not to go to work? Are they going to quarantine the lab workers at the lab for the several waves and mutations of the virus..a year or more? How will they get samples of the new mutations of the virus? Will they have the necessary supplies to do the work? Why would a lab be any different than any other business?
Where are they going to find replacement workers? Where will they find voluteers to test the vaccine on?
Would you take a vaccine produced under those less-than- optimal conditions?
This is not a pretty picture.

Tea4Two wrote: About the vaccine, are we assuming that the labs will have power for 6-12 months and that none of the limited number of people who would make the vaccine will get sick or choose not to go to work? Are they going to quarantine the lab workers at the lab for the several waves and mutations of the virus..a year or more? How will they get samples of the new mutations of the virus? Will they have the necessary supplies to do the work? Why would a lab be any different than any other business? Where are they going to find replacement workers? Where will they find voluteers to test the vaccine on? Would you take a vaccine produced under those less-than- optimal conditions? This is not a pretty picture.

Presactly
     

It is depressing, when we have to face the illusions we have about America and the American Dream...
I think I'll go outside for a walk and enjoy it while I can...and then come back and dehydrate some more beans.
Have to keep some balance, "I'm alright, right now."    

I'm prepping for 6 months. I started prepping for 90 days but that soon was increased the more I learn.

I think the thug thing is what I fear the most,  I have a shotgun and know how to use it. I actually have hidden my preps all over my house in nutritionally balanced caches(and some toys for my kids)  That way, if someone does get in, they will think all I have is in my pantry.  Am I paranoid? I don't know but I do know it makes me feel better to have things hidden. Gigi

all you really need to survive is food and water

Shoulda bought stock in Uncle Ben's or Carolina brand. LOL

One thought about a years supply of food.

Jax Max wrote: One thought about a years supply of food. You may rest assured that if societal collapse lasts a year, that after 4 or 5 months you will figure out how to grow food. .

yeah but food tends to take a bit longer to grow to be substantial. Best to figure it out now and start planting.
March seeds would ready from July to September. No good planting them much later than May really.


     

oknut wrote: Thanks Jax Max - My thoughts on gardening are simple. Our small backyard garden isn't likely to produce enough for preserving, but the fresh veggies for several months will help stretch our preps and provide fresh, healthy produce. If I could only keep the squirels from our fruit and nut trees, we'd have plenty.

and the neighbours from the veg plot!
     

KevO, that was my thought too as people are talking about planting an outdoor garden for food.  Unless they are in a secluded rural area, people are going to see this garden.  If they are hungry, there will be nothing left of these gardens to eat.