Bird Flu Family Cluster

   This is from the Jakarta Post




Family 'infected' with bird flu

BANDARLAMPUNG, Lampung: A family of five was admitted to Abdul Moeloek hospital in Bandurlampung on Sunday, all suffering from suspected bird flu.

The family -- Abidi, the husband and his wife Sarmawati, both 52, and three of their six children, Septi, 12, Fitri, 8 and Putra, 5 -- are now being treated in an isolation room. The five have all demonstrated a high fever and a cough, symptoms of the deadly bird flu.

Sarmawati has been treated at the hospital since last Thursday. Her other three children had been diagnosed with bird flu earlier. Mohtar Rozi, 15, died March 31, and Betharia, 19, died April 4, while Bakhrudin, 26, is still being treated at the hospital.

Both Mohtar and Betharia died at home before they could be sent to the hospital. Their parents had limited funds and knew little about the virus.

Laboratory tests on drug samples taken from the patients confirmed Bakhrudin, Septi, Fitri and Putra were infected with the bird flu virus, while Abidi and Sarmawati were negative, according to data from the Lampung health office.

In 2004 at least 1.83 million hens in nine regencies throughout Lampung province died, possibly from bird flu, and last year the virus killed another 4,305 hens in the province.

Seven other suspected bird flu patients had been admitted to Abdul Moeloek hospital before the family. After appropriate medical treatment, all recovered. -- JP
    

Edited by gypsybeach1 - April 18 2006 at 9:58pm

the article says that 7 other people had been admitted earlier. I wonder if they got tested??

In my hour by hour vigilance of monitoring world news for a H2H outbreak, this type oe event is what I am watching for.

I will have a hard time accepting that this family is not experiencing H2H, even if later reports are that this family was all infected from the same source...a sick bird.

 

 

Have any of these people in this cluster already been counted in the WHO total?  This is the worst post I've seen so far.  What about the 7 others who had previously been treated and released, has that ever been reported? 

I wonder how many situations like this have not been reported or were reported with slants to keep them from looking like H2H.

I'm sure that no nation wants to go on record as being the first spot of official H2H2H transmission.

Between the "don't worry, be happy" media campaign, the rumors about situations in China, the lack of reported human cases in Africa and everything else that does slip out - you have to wonder.

Would mutations in the virus impact the ability for current tests to detect it?

So many questions....

I went to the Jarkarta post and can't find the story.  Has it been removed from the news.  Could somebody tell me where to find the correct link?

We need to be on the lookout for 2 items:

 

First,the WHO report called the OIE. This will be the written notification from India to the WHO and is required.

 

Second we need to Monitor ProMed the physician only site of the International Infectious Diseases, thye usually beat the WHO in reporting.

Grace, there seems to be many false negative tests that are changed later (usually after the person dies and an autopsy is done). I am not sure why this occurs - maybe a shift in the viral load (when you first get ill, the virus is located and replicating more in the throat and as the flu progresses, it goes to your lungs and replicates there. This might explain why throat swabs may not provide accurate test results, depending on which phase of the flu the person might be going through).

I wonder too if it's some kind of "carrier mode" that the tests don't pickup the H5N1 in some of the family members??

I'm wondering IF, BIG IF, it had mutated and gone H2H, would the existing tests be able to detect it, or come up as a false negative?   Hmmmmm

Good question, are they only testing for H5N1, or also for any similar closely related virusus (or is that even possible?).  If it's mutated people might test negative for H5N1, yet it IS the new H2H influenza that doesn't show up.. Or do they know how to spot any mutations of H5N1?( Maybe I have a whole wrong picture of how this works..)

Your very welcome, Gravitation.  It isn't a very well organized story, but I got to the bottom of it.     I am wondering if parents results are false negatives?????  Or if the mutation of the BF virus causes a negative result..like was mentioned and questioned above.  Questions..lots of them.  Scary stuff. 

Edited by Capricornmonkey - April 19 2006 at 3:14pm

The WHO will never call a level 4.  Nations will not allow it to do that.  You see what has happened in so many places...one dead bird is not a danger...the chicken and egs are safe....we have no human cases.  Take your pick, Western countries or Eastern countries, none will allow it.  It means the closing of some boarders and that puts a crimp in food and other supplies.  It will man people are unemployed and the national economies will suffer.  We will go from level 3 to level 6 with no steps inbetween.

It is concerning, also, that the older child also died.  He was the one that was still being treated.  He must have died today.  ???  I hope that the story will continue to be updated.

   This is almost certainly false negative testing of  the parents. Initial false negatives are common. The probability they have a different strain of flu than BF is extremely remote. The probability of two persons such as this dying from regular flu is almost nonexistent.   ER Doc

From JaxMax

Jo007, I don't wish for anyone to think that i am blaming any one government for the WHO decision.  The WHO is a political organization and as such will do what the UN wants them to.  If a stage 4 is called it will mean many things are no longer bought or sold between nations and that would cause terrible hardships on their governments. 

Thank you, southerngentuk!

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