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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Not Avian Flu, but something to watch...
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NawtyBits View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 01 2006 at 5:59pm
NASA's NEO (Near Earth Object) page is now listing the following:

73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD  2006-May-11 21:53 ±   11:11 33.7/0.0867 0.0/0.0001 14.79 14.78 3 n/a

I know it looks like gibberish, but note the 3rd and 4th columns..that is the

 Miss Distance (LD,AU)  The most likely (Nominal) and minimum possible (Minimum) miss distances are given in LD (Lunar Distance) and AU.

Please note that the Minimum  Miss Distance is 0.0/0.0001.    0.0001AU is about 9300 miles.

Seems kinda close to me....

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca?type=NEO;hmax=all;tlim=recent_future;dmax=0.1AU;max_rows=200;action=Display%20Table;show=1&sort=dist_min&sdir=ASC


Either a grievous error, or something to keep an eye on.

Mods can delete this anytime as it has nothing to do with AF....but it does have something to do with being prepared.

nawty
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tonseck View Drop Down
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Did they list a mass on that puppy?
Don't be afraid to be afraid; it keeps you on your toes.
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Linda View Drop Down
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What exactly is it that might hit?
Insanity is making the same mistakes and expecting different results....therefore...Those who don't learn from history are bound to go insane.
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Shocked Holy Schnikees!Shocked  Anybody know anyone at NASA they can call to confirm?
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NawtyBits View Drop Down
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I am working on another website to get size/mass of this thing.

Also trying to confirm if numbers are correct or ttypos/errors....

As for what it is going to hit....probably nothing....probably...

9300 miles is pretty darn close any way you look at it...

nawty
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Ironstone View Drop Down
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Is that the comet that broke into 3 pieces?
Ironstone
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A good maximum and minimum will include the accuracy of the observations.  Given this short lead time (10 or so days), that figure should be pretty solid as the MINIMUM clearance, and probably will be alot more.  There are subtle gravitational variations that, given time, could make significant changes.  There's a big asteroid we could hit in 2029 where the range of variation and Earth's orbit come close to intersecting.  We won't know until much closer in time.
 
UNLESS!!!Confused  (Ain't there always an "unless"?)
 
It has a collision with something (another smaller rock we haven't noticed because its smaller) that is a significant percentage of its size, going in a different direction.  That could change the orbit unpredictably.  This is EXTREMELY unlikely, and would be more likely to direct it away from the Earth rather than towards the Earth (more changes in directions lead away from the Earth).  This is not an event I would do preparations for.
 
Now to tie this in with bird flu.
 
If there were a 100 million rocks like that near the Earth (equivalent to the number of birds I have heard have H5N1), thus there is a 100 million individual opportunities for one of them to become a global issue affecting humans directly (mutating into H5N1),  I WILL consider prepping for that, since there just so many opportunities for the unlikely to happen (not too unlikely because it has happened before, repeatedly, where Avian flu has moved to feasting on humans).
 
 
Dave
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Check this out:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=73P-AT

Hit the fast forward button and watch how close it comes....Wow!
No data available that I could find on the size of this puppy.

GLOBAL KILLER...........I will need alot more preps..........

Scott
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Originally posted by Ironstone Ironstone wrote:

Is that the comet that broke into 3 pieces?


As of last count, there are over 40 TRACKABLE chunks of this rock, and it is still breaking up in to more.

nawty
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Listened to a program on this comet about a week ago...NASA says we are ok.  There will be shooting stars and such...think it was like 3 an hour?
 
There is an alternative theory tho:
Fellow from France (used to be French military air traffic controler) says a chunk the size of a semi will hit in the Pacific Rift and cause global volcanic action.  He has worked out the trajectory.  He got his inital information from a crop circle in England and since then has spoken with ETs.  They have told him it is because the US is threatening Iran.
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Originally posted by fiddlerdave2 fiddlerdave2 wrote:

A good maximum and minimum will include the accuracy of the observations.  Given this short lead time (10 or so days), that figure should be pretty solid as the MINIMUM clearance, and probably will be alot more.  There are subtle gravitational variations that, given time, could make significant changes. 
 


As the original post indicates, the "likely" distance is 33LD, and thats a long way.  The minimum is about 9300 miles.  Now, that means that they have calculated this thing to pass by between 9300 miles and 33LD.  That's a LOT of wiggle room.  That's 9300 to 7.8 million miles. 

9300 is .0001% of 7.8M miles.  There are a LOT of factors that can influence the path of a comet.  What if the calcs are .0001% off?

Just a thought. 

I'm not worried about this one, but it does give one pause.

nawty
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tonseck View Drop Down
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I hope that roving gravity anomaly that keeps following me around doesn't attract it.  Time for a new tinfoil hat.
Don't be afraid to be afraid; it keeps you on your toes.
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NawtyBits View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Ironstone Ironstone wrote:

Listened to a program on this comet about a week ago...NASA says we are ok.  There will be shooting stars and such...think it was like 3 an hour?
 


Shooting stars means something is entering our atmosphere.  So, if NASA says we might 3 shooting stars an hour, that means 3 chunks of the rock/ice ball are entering our atmosphere. 

Thats a HELL of a lot closer than 9300 miles....

nawty
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Scott View Drop Down
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Funny Carpenter. Thanks for the laugh!
LOL
scott
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Ironstone View Drop Down
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The earth passes thru the tail of a comet every so often.  This one crosses our path every few years.  Here they are always telling us when we can go out and see showers.  The NASA fellow laughed at the idea anything sizable would hit the earth, it was too far away.
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Carpenter, I am sorry, tinfoil is completely discredited as a shield against gravity anomalies.  Haven't you been listening to Art Bell?  What REALLY works is the GRAVITY B GONE (tm) Shield Generator from ET Industries.  It doubles as a way to levitate between crop circles. Its convenient crank handle also will give you an hour of white LED light that will expose sinkholes into alternate universes that could shift you into the Bermuda Triangle unawaringly.  BEST VALUE: Call on the East of the Mississippi 800 number, and say the special code "Eyem Asap" and you will 10% off.
Dave
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Ironstone View Drop Down
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lol
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I was just talking to BahamaMama in  the Tiki Room.   I was regaling her with tales of sailboat deliveries in the Carribean. How did you get me transported to Bermuda?
 
Ya know, those gravity anomalies can sneak up on you.  Walk over one, and either you get squished down to a pancake, or you get squirted off the face of the planet like a watermelon seed.  I've seen it happen, really!
Don't be afraid to be afraid; it keeps you on your toes.
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Lucifer's Hammer all over again!
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OK, now I know what they were talking about in the Tiki Room. Did anybody see the movie "Deep Impact"? I think that was the name of the movie. It was about an asteroid that was headed toward earth. Did someone already say that in the one of the above posts?

Nawty, are you an aerospace engineer? That is my guess.
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Maybe a little chunk will provide me with a crater to solve that solid waste disposal problem?
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Originally posted by <br> Nawty, are you an aerospace engineer? That is my guess. <br> [/QUOTE
Nawty, are you an aerospace engineer? That is my guess.
[/QUOTE wrote:



No, no.  Just someone who spends a little too much time hang


No, no.  Just someone who spends a little too much time hanging around conspiracy websites. 

This story caught my eye.

In real life, I am an Air Traffic Controller.

nawty
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Originally posted by Bumpman2 Bumpman2 wrote:

Lucifer's Hammer all over again!


An EXCELLENT read.

nawty

p.s.  And coincidentally, the current situation is playing out just like the book.....go figure...
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Question 1. Was the comet breakup was accident or intentional?
  Independents Day Move comes to mind
     2. Was the trajectory based on when the comet was intact?
  Now we have 33 some pieces flying like buckshot plus the main piece
  According to CNN video smaller pieces trailing the main one
             http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/04/28/comet.breakup/index.html 
 According to the Bile codes page the year 2006 is the bad one
 And we all now the how the ENDTIMES should start 
 With poisoning of water by a comet
So let keep on prepping
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Last count was at least 42 trackable pieces. 

Comet breakups are a natural occurance.  This one started in the late 90's.
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In real life, I am an Air Traffic Controller.

nawty
[/QUOTE]
 
And your're worried about a chunk of Rock/Ice a lot of years from now?
I think you are  living the nightmare now!!!!!!LOLClap
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jo007athome- hopefully they have not figured out how to outsource the work you do yet.

I'm a programmer and my last contract stint was $10 an hour less than it had been 3 year prior at the same client company through the same consulting firm.

Not a good sign. I'm self employed now and poor, but I work from home.
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Originally posted by jo007athome jo007athome wrote:

In real life, I am an Air Traffic Controller.

nawty
 
And your're worried about a chunk of Rock/Ice a lot of years from now?
I think you are  living the nightmare now!!!!!!LOLClap
[/QUOTE]

This chunk will be here may 11th, give or take 11 hours...

Ill take my current nightmare any day.  At least I am in control  (usually...)

LOL

nawty
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There is a small college observatory, within a rock's throw from here. They have been very busy lately watching the show.
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Originally posted by Gwyphn Gwyphn wrote:

There is a small college observatory, within a rock's throw from here. They have been very busy lately watching the show.


I bet it is a pretty spectacular show....just NIMBY.

Wink
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Nawty,
 I don't know about the May 11th event you speak of but I watched the show on comets about 2 weeks ago. It showed how the the comet broke up into asteroids and one of them hit the earth and caused the Ice Age. They are sure that a million years prior to that it happened also and were saying that we are long overdue for another. This is not something I can prepare for, so I just can't put too much into worrying about it. It is beyond the scope of my ability.I was just teasing you about air trafic controlling. that seems to me like one of the top 5 stressfull jobs with the near misses that occur almost on a daily basis.Were you in ATC on 9/11? That day had to be the worst.So, I was applauding you, not being mean. Jo
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Originally posted by jo007athome jo007athome wrote:

Nawty,
 It is beyond the scope of my ability.I was just teasing you about air trafic controlling. that seems to me like one of the top 5 stressfull jobs with the near misses that occur almost on a daily basis.Were you in ATC on 9/11? That day had to be the worst.So, I was applauding you, not being mean. Jo


I never took it being mean at all.  I can take a good teasing just like any other.  Wink 

I was in ATC on 9/11, Ive been doing it for over 20 years.  9/11 did suck.  Although I wasn't at any of the facilities that actually worked the impacting planes, I was involved in the shutting down of the airspace.  Nationwide, we landed over 7000 planes in 4 hours, an unprecedented event.  Locally, we cleared our airspace, about 10,000 square miles, 1 international airport, and 8 satellite airports, in about 15 minutes.  Those were interesting times to say the least.

Again, no offence taken....Smile

nawty
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BTW, nawty,
The same week that I saw the (doomsday) Comet show, I also saw about three more (doomsday) shows one was global warming will cause.... and I don't even remember the other one. It totally depressed me and that was when I decided to only worry about any situation that I can plausible prepare for within the scope of my abilities. B/F, hurricaines, loss of employment, etc. That way I can stay sane and keep hope!Wacko
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There is a LOT of nasty stuff that can happen, and preparing for whatever you can is never a bad idea.  And not sweating the stuff you can't prepare for.

nawty
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