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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

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    Posted: May 12 2006 at 10:39pm
HEALTH

Indonesia probes possible bird flu

Four of eight cases investigated were fatal

SPECIAL REPORT
Indonesian and World Health Organization officials on Saturday were investigating eight suspected bird flu cases, four of them fatal.

All eight cases were from the same family. Four members of the family have died from what health officials suspect could be bird flu, said WHO spokeswoman Sari Setiogi.

Blood samples have been sent to a WHO lab in Hong Kong for analysis, Setiogi said.

The family lived in a village in the Tanah Karo district in north Sumatra.

Indonesia's death toll from the H5N1 bird flu strain stands at 25 -- the world's second-highest toll after Vietnam, according to reports from The Associated. Press.

Several fatalities were members of the same family or lived near each other.

Health officials closely study such groups of cases, know as "clusters," to see whether the virus, which currently is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, has mutated into one that can easily pass between humans -- a scenario that many fear could turn into a global human pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sure2Survive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 12 2006 at 10:52pm
It appears that we may have efficient human to human transmition going on in Indonesia.  I am also seeing on Google that any links to the Indonesian articles have been redirected to other stories.  We may be experiencing a temporary coverup as the Pandemic may have begun!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 3:27am
yes it looks like a cover up to me too
 
the other thing is this vill is a long way out in the sticks and they are jumping on it and the people infected supposed to be 12 people
 
they are saying they caught it from manure and that sounds like crap to me
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scotty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 4:22am
Kilt: Don't know if that was accidental or not but it certainly gave me a laugh to start the day with.

This looks like it needs watching but this is not the sort of H2H that would send me running for the hills. When we see dozens of small clusters spread throughout an entire region then I will worry. Even at that point my gut feeling is that we will still have three or four days before the real panic starts. IF it starts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 4:33am

Bird Flu deaths raise human transmission fears
13/05/2006 - 09:29:32

Indonesian and World Health Organisation officials today were investigating eight suspected human bird flu cases, four of them fatal, in a district on Sumatra island.

WHO spokeswoman Sari Setiogi in Indonesia said tests on villagers’ blood samples in northern Sumatra’s Tanah Karo district had yet to be completed.

A WHO team has “checked the village and at this stage we can say they are still suspect at the moment,” Setiogi said.

Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry’s office of communicable disease control, said the samples have been passed on to a WHO lab in Hong Kong for confirmation.

He said the possibility of human-to-human infection ”could not be ruled out.”

Kandun said all of the suspected victims were part of a large family, with most living near each other in the same village.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/05/13/story258548.html

 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 5:35am
    http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng

Please check out this site.
one day there was 3 bird flu flags
then the next 6 bird flu flags
today there is 8 bird flu flags

My fear is it is spreading faster.
What will happen next?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:07am
    why is it that who doen't have all the places listed as bird flu.

Poland
Ukraine
Russia
Somelia
The site i posted for emergency has these listed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:08am
Found this in my folder of printed papers:

Major Parts of the Federal Response Plan
Article Tools Sponsored By
Published: May 3, 2006

In a report released Monday, the White House outlined a plan to respond to a potential pandemic flu outbreak. The plan outlines the potential spread and the planned governmental response. Stages may be skipped. Durrently the country is in stage 0, but has reached stage 1 before.

STAGE 0: New domestic animal outbreak or animal-to-human infection abroad.
THE FEDERAL RESPONSE
Deploy diplomats, scientists and health experts to help contain outbreak.

STAGE 1: Unconfirmed or suspected human-to-human infection abroad.
THE FEDERAL RESPONSE
American facilities and resources would be provided to help identify the virus through genetic testing. Federal agencies would increase surveillance at the borders and prepare to impose travel restrictions.

STAGE 2: Confirmed human-to-human infection, an outbreak, abroad.
THE FEDERAL RESPONSE
A declaration of an Incident of National Significance would make the Homeland Security Department the lead agency to coordinate response. A test would be developed and distributed to check for infection. Travelers to the United States would be screened before department and upon entering the country. Travel restrictions would beconsidered for the affected area and for countries that do not have adequate screening programs.   Quarantine stations would be activated.

STAGE 3: Outbreaks in multiple locations abroad.
THE FEDERAL RESPONSE
Antiviral medications in the strategic stockpile would be distributed. Production of seasonal flu vaccine would be stopped and switched to the production of pandemic vaccine. Because it has to be grown in eggs, it will take six to eight months before the faccine is available.

More stages - but that's what I'm typing out right now.

Here is something too:

However, page 46 Pandemic triggers is EXTREMELY useful. 4 objective triggers for a pandemic:
1. 3 health care workers contracting pandemic flu at work
2. 5-10 Human to Human (H2H infection)
3. More than 1 generation of H2H
4. Human and avian genetic combination with changed transmission pattersn.

"The incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around 2 or 3 days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from 2 to 8 days and possibly as long as 17 days....WHO currently recommends than an incubation period of 7 days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bjregg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:27am
Commonground,
Thanks for all of the useful information you have posted.  It is greatly appreciated.  bj
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bjregg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:35am
Birdlady,
I count 9 bird flu flags, one is behind another flag and barely shows.  bj
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:40am
So the country is in stage 0, the world is in Stage 3.
Good marketing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:53am
    bj so what do you think of the rapid changes on this site. Do you think something big is going on? Maybe this is the start of the pandemic? I watch this site everyday and the changes are rapid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:27am

 
Dead    JAKARTA, May 13 (Xinhua) -- Five Indonesian people from a family related by blood were positively infected by avian influenza virus after tested by the country's laboratory, health ministry official said here Saturday.

    Director General of Disease Control of the ministry, I Nyoman Kandun said that the five from Indonesia's North Sumatra province had had contacts with fowls and pigs.

    He said that their blood samples had been sent to the World Health Organization's (WHO) affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong.

    They have been tested, the result were positive, Kandun told Xinhua.

    The five are 29 year-old woman, two men of 19 years old and 35,whom have died since at the end of last month, and two others men of 25 years old and 35 years old man, whom survive, according to the director.

    They are from one family tree, he said.

    The director said that tree others people from the family were suspected of having the virus, including a 40 year-old woman and a 10 year-old boy, both of them have died, and a 35 year-old man whom survive.

    According to Kandun the WHO has confirmed 26 out of 35 people contacted by the virus, have died.

    The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, which killed more than 90 people.

    The WHO has said that the virus may mutate in to a certain form that could infect human to human which turn the outbreak into pandemic that could kill millions of people because they would have no immunity. Enditem Cry

Editor: Yang Li
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bjregg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:56am
Birdlady,
I hope not, but the recent information doesn't look promising.  Also, you have to take into consideration the likelyhood that a number of governments are not being aboveboard relative to their reporting of incidents.  Bottom line: this is not good.  bj
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:08am
Thanks for the compliment bj. Trying to contribute my fair share in any way I can.
One thing I noticed with the above post from PonyGirl, is that these people are a bit older.
I was wondering about the Pandemic triggers that I posted above. Would it be a combination of 1-4 that would trigger a pandemic?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:20am
The first death in this news was on may 4th foloewed by 2 deaths on may 9th and 10th and 2 more on may 12th.
 
The virus has a 2 - 8 or maybe longer incubation period.
 
12 other people are hospitalized (Not confirmed)
 
Who states a 21 day window (Once efficient H2H starts) to getting a pandemic under control before it is out of their hands. 
 
This information suggests the 21 day window if you do the math is already or close to being done. Also h2h would be a likely scenario based on the dates of the deaths.
 
What is not mentioned and needs to be confirmed is the 12 people hospitalized and wether they are related to the 5 deaths, if so I think these cound be considered second generation.
 
Of course all this is assuming effecient h2h and a different pattern of infection.
 
Any thoughts??
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:23am
We have to find out WHO the other 12 are. Live nearby? For all we know...they could be HCW's!!! We don't know squat.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bjregg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:26am
Commonground,
I'm not sure, it could be interpreted as being one or more of the identified triggers.  Things just do not look too good.   As for the individuals noted in PonyGirl's post, I  guess classifying them as "a bit older" is relative.  I'm 55 and the individuals in their 20's and 30's seem young, albeit, not children.
Thanks again for all of your diligence and information.  bj
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:49am
bj, so far, a lot of the victims of bf have been children, or kids in their 20's. 5 of these people were 35 years old and up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote janetn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:58am

Im getting two separate clusters here one has already been pegged as coming from fertiliser. This new one is still unknown.

Particurly disconserting is the mortality rate its well over 50%. It should be going the other way, for several reasons 1 earlier detection now 2 better tx knowledge 3 viruses generally weaken as mutate.

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Commonground,
You're right.  bj
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What's with this?


May 14, 2006

Avian Flu Wanes in Asian Nations It First Hit Hard
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Even as it crops up in the far corners of Europe and Africa, the virulent bird flu that raised fears of a human pandemic has been largely snuffed out in the parts of Southeast Asia where it claimed its first and most numerous victims.
Health officials are pleased and excited. "In Thailand and Vietnam, we've had the most fabulous success stories," said Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations.
Vietnam, which has had almost half of the human cases of A(H5N1) flu in the world, has not seen a single case in humans or a single outbreak in poultry this year. Thailand, the second-hardest-hit nation until Indonesia recently passed it, has not had a human case in nearly a year or one in poultry in six months.
Encouraging signs have also come from China, though they are harder to interpret.
These are the second positive signals that officials have seen recently in their struggle to prevent avian flu from igniting a human pandemic. Confounding expectations, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not carried the virus into Europe.
Dr. Nabarro and other officials warn that it would be highly premature to declare any sort of victory. The virus has moved rapidly across continents and is still rampaging in Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries nearby. It could still hitchhike back in the illegal trade in chicks, fighting cocks or tropical pets, or in migrating birds.
But this sudden success in the former epicenter of the epidemic is proof that aggressive measures like killing infected chickens, inoculating healthy ones, protecting domestic flocks and educating farmers can work, even in very poor countries.
Dr. Nabarro said he was "cautious in interpreting these shifts in patterns" because too little is known about how the disease spreads.
Other officials agreed.
"To say the disease is 'wiped out' there is probably too strong, too positive," said Dr. Wantanee Kalpravidh, chief of flu surveillance in Southeast Asia for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which fights animal diseases. The governments of Thailand and Vietnam "believe they got rid of it," she said, "but they also believe that it might be coming back at any time."
Very different tactics led to success in the two countries.
While Vietnam began vaccinating all its 220 million chickens last summer, Thailand did not because it has a large poultry export industry, and other nations would have banned its birds indefinitely. (Vaccines can mask the virus instead of killing it.)
Instead, Thailand culled wide areas around infected flocks, compensated farmers generously and deputized a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens.
It vaccinates fighting cocks, which can be worth thousands of dollars, and even issues them passports with their vaccination records so they can travel, Dr. Nabarro said.
Government inspectors sample birds everywhere; in February, Thailand reported that samples from 57,000 birds had come back negative.
According to Dr. Klaus Stöhr, a flu specialist at the World Health Organization, Thailand and Vietnam also delivered the antiviral drug Tamiflu to even the smallest regional hospitals and told doctors to treat all flu patients even before laboratory diagnoses could be made.
Dr. Nabarro particularly praised the leaders of the two countries for ordering high-level officials — deputy prime ministers — to fight the disease, and for making sure that enough cash to entice farmers to hand over their birds for culling flowed down official channels without being siphoned off.
Hints suggest that the disease is also being beaten back in China, the country where it is assumed to have begun. International officials tend to greet official public health reports from China skeptically, in part because it concealed the outbreak of the SARS virus there for months. It did not officially report any bird cases for years, even though many scientists contend the virus incubated there between its first appearance in humans in Hong Kong in 1997 and the current human outbreak, which began in Vietnam in 2003.
Some top Chinese officials have blamed the reluctance of local officials to report bad news to Beijing. Dr. Nabarro said he recently met a vice premier "who made it clear that they are absolutely determined to get the fullest possible cooperation from provincial authorities."
China's reported human cases have remained low: 8 last year and 10 this year.
Perhaps more important, its poultry cases — which lead to human cases and increase the risk of a mutant pandemic strain — seem to be dropping.
According to the World Health Organization, China said it had outbreaks in 16 provinces in 2004. In 2005, it reported outbreaks in only 12 provinces, but one in November was so large that 2.5 million birds were culled to contain it.
After that, the Agriculture Ministry announced that it would vaccinate every domestic bird in China, which raises and consumes 14 billion chickens, ducks and geese each year. The official news agency reported about the same time that a fake flu vaccine, possibly with live virus in it, might have spread the disease.
Dr. Stöhr, who is in charge of W.H.O. flu vaccine efforts, said he was told by Chinese agriculture officials that the country was now producing 46 billion doses of poultry vaccine a year, and was supplying vaccines to Vietnam.
China's most recent monthly reports describe much smaller outbreaks than were previously common: findings of a few dead wild birds and culls of 126,000 birds in one spot and 16,000 in another, for example.
"We are hopeful that China has turned the corner," Dr. Nabarro said.
In Cambodia and Laos, which separate Thailand and Vietnam, the situation is vague.
Laos has reported no human cases and last reported poultry outbreaks two years ago. Cambodia's reported human cases dropped to two this year, from four last year. No poultry outbreaks were reported, but surveillance is so spotty that some must have occurred and gone unnoticed, Dr. Kalpravidh said, because the country's six human victims were infected by poultry.
Cambodia was slow to compensate farmers for their birds because of problems with corruption in a previous cash-for-guns program.
Health specialists generally agree that there is little clear chance of infected birds landing in the United States.
Where the Southeast Asian governments have taken action, however, the risk of the virus returning is ever present, Dr. Nabarro said.
For example, he said, it probably exists in Vietnam in Muscovy ducks, which can harbor the virus but do not get sick, and it has turned up in isolated birds in open-air markets near the Chinese border. (Single birds do not constitute an outbreak.) Since Chinese farmers can get three times as much for a chicken in Vietnam as they can at home, the temptation to smuggle persists.
"Tomorrow, the whole thing could change again," Dr. Nabarro said. "We need to be on the alert at all times."
5 Cases Confirmed in Indonesia
JAKARTA, Indonesia, May 13 (Reuters) — Local tests have confirmed that three Indonesians who died in the past week had avian flu, a Health Ministry official said Saturday.
Authorities have sent blood and swab samples of the three people — all from one family — to a World Health Organization-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong. Local tests are not considered definitive.
A toddler and a 25-year-old man from the same North Sumatra family also tested positive for bird flu, but they are still alive, said Nyoman Kandun, a director general at the Health Ministry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/world/asia/14flu.html?ei=5094&en=2e2d7c79762b3aab&hp=&ex=1147579200&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JaxMax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:36am
Indonesia is also getting pummelled each day with earthquakes. These earthquakes will decimate their already primitive sanitation. The lack of sanitation will act as a catalyst to H2H since there are so many infected chickens the country is endemic.
 
Today Indonesia had ANOTHER eartquake, 6.1 on May 13, 2006. It was in Sumatra, the area cited in the articel by Pony above.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
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Indonesia local tests show 5 positive on bird flu
 
JAKARTA, May 13 (Xinhua) -- Five Indonesian people from a family related by blood were positively infected by avian influenza virus after tested by the country's laboratory, health ministry official said here Saturday.

Director General of Disease Control of the ministry, I Nyoman Kandun said that the five from Indonesia's North Sumatra province had had contacts with fowls and pigs.

He said that their blood samples had been sent to the World Health Organization's (WHO) affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong.

They have been tested, the result were positive, Kandun told Xinhua.

The five are 29 year-old woman, two men of 19 years old and 35,whom have died since at the end of last month, and two others men of 25 years old and 35 years old man, whom survive, according to the director.

They are from one family tree, he said.

The director said that three others people from the family were suspected of having the virus, including a 40 year-old woman and a 10 year-old boy, both of them have died, and a 35 year-old man whom survive.

According to Kandun the WHO has confirmed 26 out of 35 people contacted by the virus, have died.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, which killed more than 90 people.

The WHO has said that the virus may mutate in to a certain form that could infect human to human which turn the outbreak into pandemic that could kill millions of people because they would have no immunity. Enditem 
 
Editor: Yang Li 

9 Suspected Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Patients ~ 3 of these match the age descriptions of the tests showing positive above.

1. Fuji Ginting, Roy's father, Fuji, 40, Died on May 4 at Elisabeth Hospital.
2. Anta Beru Ginting, 29 years, Died on Wednesday May 5 at dawn earlier at Adam Malik Hospital
3. Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He Died Tuesday May 9 2006
4. Praise Br Ginting (Roys Mother) Died May 4. (no age given) Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus.
5. Renaita Beru Tarigan a pre-schooler (1.8 years) ? 05/12/2006 18:28 of Brenata 18 months became casualties was killed fifth that was expected terjangkit bird flu in Medan, North Sumatra.
 
Four relatives at this time still were treated intensive care in the same hospital, namely:
 
5. Jones Ginting (age 25) 
6. Bonny Karo-karo (age18)
 
The last two patients who were treated were 
 
7. Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan. (Medan is a town in Northern Sumatra)
8. Obviously Ulina Ginting (8 years).
 
The above patient info was gathered from recent articles. http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7805
 
Recent reports may also indicate that 12 more suspected cases of H5N1 bird flu are being treated in intensive care at RSUP Adam, where five family members have already died.  Jhetta:They possibly include the remaing cased mentioned above.
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote janetn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:05am
My brain is not awake yet [worked night shift last night] but 26 dead out of 35 is about a 75% mortality rateOuch someone check my math please
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JaxMax: I had to check the discussion forum to make sure I had my facts right. I thought it was the volcano that was in play for Indonesia. I was right . But now I see they also have a problem with earthquakes.   Volcanos, Earthquakes, Bird Flu. Man.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sure2Survive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:17am
Five Fatal H5N1 Cases in Sumatra Raise Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary

May 13, 2006

The fatal H5N1 bird flu infections of five family members in Karo in North Sumatra has raised pandemic concerns.  2-3 additional family members are hospitalized, but 12 other suspect patients are of even greater concern.

Media reports have provided no detail on these other 12 patients.  The hospital is 170 km from the family residence, so it is unclear why there are 12 more suspect patients at the hospital in Medan.  Least worrisome would be hospital quarantine due to exposure to the family.  However, transporting these patients 170 km as a precaution suggests the local level; of concern is high.  Media reports had described panic in the region, but the panic is more likely to be in Karo than Medan.

If the 12 are casual contacts or hospital contacts, than the cause for concern would be increased.  The five fatalities have already set a record for H5N1 clusters and so far none of the family members have been discharged.  Two fled from the hospital, but they have been returned to a private hospital and their current medical condition is not clear.

The family members most severely affected have died, and the spread in the dates of death suggests human-to-human transmission from the index case to the other family members.  Although
fertilizer may have contributed to the infection of the index case, infection of the other family members from the fertilizer seems unlikely, unless the other 12 suspect cases also are linked to the fertilizer, which originated in areas that are H5N1 positive.

In any event, more information on the 12 Indonesian suspect cases would be useful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fiddlerdave2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:33am
Even if this is NOT the beginning (and may well NOT be), this is how it will look if we are fortunate enough for the breakout to occur where there is some medical care.
 
This did go out to the friends who wanted to be alerted when the H2H could be started, the first one I have sent.
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Strong earthquake rocks Aceh, no immediate reports of damage
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513115144&irec=2

JAKARTA (JP): A strong earthquake measuring 5.9 Richter scale on Saturday rocked beneath the sea near Aceh province on Sumatra island, El-Shinta radio reported.

There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The report said the quake was centered 47 kilometers under the sea in the Indian Ocean, about 95 kilometers south of the provincial capital of Banda Aceh.

Aceh province was the worst-hit Asian coastline in the tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, triggered by a quake measuring 9.2 Richter scale that claimed some 200,000 of lives. (BBN)

 
Govt raises Merapi volcano alert to highest level
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513104529&irec=4

JAKARTA (JP): The government on Saturday raised the alert status at the Merapi volcano located in the border area between Central Jakarta and Yogyakarta provinces to the red code -- the highest level of volcano activities.

With the new status, the government requires all residents living in the slopes of Mt. Merapi to immediately leave their houses for temporary shelters, which have been prepared by localgovernments and non-governmental organizations.

Some 30,000 residents have to be evacuated from Mount Merapi slope if the volcano explodes.

The change of the Merapi status was declared at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday and was officially announced by Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono at 10:30, MetroTV television reported.

The 3,000-meter peak has been rumbling ominously in recent weeks and spewing clouds of black ash and lava. Many people living closest to the crater have already been evacuated.

"Because there has been constant lava flows that cause hot gases, we have raised the status to the highest level," Bambang Dwiyanto, head of the region's volcanology center, told The Associated Press.

Merapi is one of at least 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia -- part of the Pacific "Ring of Fire" - a series of fault lines stretching from the Western Hemisphere through Japan and Southeast Asia.

It last erupted in 1994, sending out a searing cloud of gas that burned 60 people to death. About 1,300 people were killed when it erupted in 1930.

Thousands of residents have leaved their houses for saver areas since late last month. But many of them had returned home because of various reasons. Many Villagers also ignored warnings about the pending danger, citing traditional beliefs about thevolcano, as well as the need to continue working. (BBN)

 
 
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Meriapi is located 8 volocanos to the right of Jakarta
Map, Major Volcanoes of Indonesia
 
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Volcanoes Worldwide Become Increasingly Active

May 13, 2006 09:40 AM EST


 

By Sher Zieve – The Southwest Research Centre is reporting increased activity amongst multiple volcanoes. Although Indonesia’s Mount Merapi has been recently reported to be in an “imminent eruption” stage, worldwide volcanic activity is high.

Other areas where volcanoes under an “orange alert” (volcano is in eruption or eruption may occur at any time) include-but are not limited to-Costa Rica, Mexico, Guatemala, Papua New Guinea, Antarctica, Philippines, Africa, Italy and Ecuador. A “red alert” (significant eruption is occurring or explosive eruption is expected at any time) has also been issued for El Salvador’s Santa Ana volcano.

http://www.swvrc.org/alerts.htm

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/14561.html

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Thousands Flee Slopes of Indonesia Volcano

By CHRIS BRUMMITT
The Associated Press

MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia

Thousands of people fled the fertile slopes of Indonesia's most dangerous volcano Saturday as glowing lava oozed down the side and ash and rock spewed from the mountaintop, leading authorities to warn that an eruption could come soon.

Villages on Mount Merapi were left virtually empty. Women, children and the elderly filled buses and trucks to be driven to shelters set up at government buildings and schools in nearby towns on the island of Java.

Throughout the day, volcanic tremors shook the ground, some strong enough to send people running in fear. After nightfall, fiery magma from the volcano's cauldron lit up the bottoms of clouds above the nearly 9,700-foot peak, and cascades of bright red stones tumbled down the mountainside.

Many people already had evacuated from homes closest to Merapi's crater after the volanco recently emerged from several years of relative quiet, but authorities said as many as 7,000 living farther down the slopes had refused to go and leave behind precious livestock and crops.

It wasn't clear how many of those obeyed the government's evacuation order Saturday. Groups of men who sent their families away were seen chatting around fires to keep warm during the night, guarding their homes against looters.

Edi, a 30-year-old villager, said he would stay unless he received a clear signal from the mountain's spirits that an eruption was at hand.

"People around here believe that if Merapi is going to explode there will be a sign, a magical sign," he said, sitting on a mat sipping coffee. "Either it comes in a dream, or in the form of a hallucination."

Although most Indonesians are Muslim, many also follow animist beliefs and worship ancient spirits. Often at full moons, they trek to crater rims and throw in rice, jewelry and live animals to appease the volcanoes.

Merapi, about 250 miles east of Indonesia's capital, Jakarta, is one of at least 129 active volcanoes in the country, which lies along the Pacific "Ring of Fire" _ a series of fault lines that feed volcanoes stretching from the Western Hemisphere through Japan and into Southeast Asia.

Merapi last erupted in 1994, sending out a cloud of searing gas that burned 60 people to death. About 1,300 people were killed when it erupted in 1930.

One man who defied the order to evacuate, Baijo, 30, said he was not worried about the risks of staying behind.

"I am not afraid. This is normal. We are looking after the village. If not, thieves will come," he said.

Some farmers said they had not seen any volcanic activity themselves so decided to remain on their land despite being urged to leave by the revered Sultan Sri Hamengkubuwono, who is also the regional governor in Yogyakarta, a city of 1 million people just 11 miles from Merapi.

"We will not leave soon because of our livestock," said one cattle raiser, who declined to give his name.

All roads leading up the mountain were closed as chunks of glowing pumice blew from Merapi's depths into the sky and burning gas fumes wafted through the air.

Authorities put the area on highest alert after observing two days of steady lava flow from the volcano.

"Because there have been constant lava flows that cause hot gases, we have raised the status to the highest level," said Bambang Dwiyanto, head of the region's volcanology center.

Experts recorded 27 volcanic tremors and eruptions of at least 14 plumes of hot ash Saturday, said Dr. Ratdomo Purbo, who heads an observation post at Merapi. He said a stream of lava extended nearly a mile down the mountain's side.

http://www.mwcsun.com/feeds/apcontent/apstories/apstorysection/D8HJ20BO0.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview

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Originally posted by Sure2Survive Sure2Survive wrote:

... The family members most severely affected have died, and the spread in the dates of death suggests human-to-human transmission from the index case to the other family members.  ...'[QUOTE]
 
[QUOTE=Jhetta]Strong earthquake rocks Aceh, no immediate reports of damage
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513115144&irec=2JAKARTA (JP): The government on Saturday raised the alert status at the Merapi volcano located in the border area between Central Jakarta and Yogyakarta provinces to the red code -- the highest level of volcano activities. With the new status, the government requires all residents living in the slopes of Mt. Merapi to immediately leave their houses for temporary shelters, which have been prepared by localgovernments and non-governmental organizations. Some 30,000 residents have to be evacuated from Mount Merapi slope if the volcano explodes 
 
So, besides the fact that this country is impoverished, largly unsanitary and crowded - I'm thinking that if this 'family' cluster has, like others, in the past remained mostly to themselves, they hopefully have kept the contamination right there. (we're  hoping) So, when/if other family evacuate with the other 30,000 residents that cluster has now been extendedz?  And we're still not sure how the other 12 people are associated with them -- if they are a new cluster or HCW who have come in contact with them, etc. etc.......!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 12:58pm
Quote ReadyMom: "So, besides the fact that this country is impoverished, largly unsanitary and crowded - I'm thinking that if this 'family' cluster has, like others, in the past remained mostly to themselves, they hopefully have kept the contamination right there. (we're  hoping) So, when/if other family evacuate with the other 30,000 residents that cluster has now been extendedz?  And we're still not sure how the other 12 people are associated with them -- if they are a new cluster or HCW who have come in contact with them, etc. etc.......!"
 
Check the maps above:
 
The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
 
The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra.  Java in the past had H5N1 infections they are detailed on the map.  However unless they transfer the 30,000 residents to the island of Sumatra... the exacuees should not come into contact with the new cluster.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 1:49pm
Use the scroll bar at bottom and side of pict to navigate to the right and top to see recent Human H5N1 infections.  Note these are not the recent clusters found on Sumatra the Island above Java where the Merapi Volcano is located.
 
Lutosh Quote article "Some farmers said they had not seen any volcanic activity themselves so decided to remain on their land despite being urged to leave by the revered Sultan Sri Hamengkubuwono, who is also the regional governor in Yogyakarta, a city of 1 million people just 11 miles from Merapi."
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 2:34pm
[/QUOTE] Check the maps above:
 The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
 The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra.  [/QUOTE]
Got it! Thanks for the clarification!! -k
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[QUOTE=ReadyMom]
[/QUOTE] Check the maps above:
 The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
 The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra.  [/QUOTE]
Got it! Thanks for the clarification!! -k
[/QUOTE]
 
No problem... just trying to sort it out myself... I do not have any info on recent confirmed H5N1 infections after April 2006 occuring around the Merapi Volcano...
 
Does anyone have this info?
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JaxMax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:55pm
Jhetta-
 
Thanks for the maps, they look good.
 
Regardless of which Island the earthquakes and volvcanoes erupt on, it is clear that Indonesia has such widespread distribution of H5N1 that it is endemic in their birds. 
 
Accordingly, wherever these catastrophes occur they will reduce an already primitive sanitation in the face of H5N1 in bird in a country of grave concern to the WHO. These natural disasters, (and Indonesia gets a 5 or greater earthquake almost every day- forget about the volcanoes), are a catalyst for further enhanced H5N1 H2H communicablility.
 
It is NOT coincidence that Indonesia has significant Human H5N1 deaths and now clusters, and that it worries the WHO.
 
Regretably, it is inevitable.
He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Samoa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:35pm
A "cluster" does not a pandemic make.  Don't let's jump to conclusions here.  You guys yelling, "Cover-up, Cover-up", give the rest of us a bad image.

What is scarey to me is that Rural Indonesia is so backward that persons may perish from the disease without it ever being noted as BF. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andrew p Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:43pm
The comments on the latest post at Effect Measure are worth reading.
According to Dr. Niman the latest is that a 5th family member has died and 2 more are deteriorating.

I'm glad many eyes are watching this closely.

The huge difference between the next pandemic and 1918 is that news gets around these days!
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Seismic Monitor
Sun May 14 3:46:39 GMT Standard Time 2006
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Moderate quake rocks Indonesia, no casualties or damage
http://in.today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-05-12T154941Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-248909-1.xml


Fri May 12, 2006 3:59 PM IST
 
JAKARTA (Reuters) - An earthquake measuring 5.9 rocked the southern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island on Friday, but there were no reports of casualties or damage, the Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics said.

Residents in the capital, Jakarta, also felt the quake, whose epicentre lay in the Sunda Straits about 30 km south of Bandar Lampung city. The straits separate Sumatra and the main Java island, and Bandar Lampung city lies 175 km west of Jakarta.

"It's in the sea and there are no reports of damage or a tsunami," Fauzi, an official from the agency, told Reuters.

"The paintings on the wall moved and everyone shouted, 'earthquake', but afterwards we were calm. Nobody came out of the building," said a Jakarta resident who works on the 24th floor.

Earthquakes are frequent in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country. Its 17,000 islands sprawl along a belt of intense volcanic and seismic activity, part of what is called the Pacific Ring of Fire.

A powerful undersea quake off the northern tip of Sumatra in December 2004 caused a devastating tsunami and caused widespread destruction.


 

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http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
 
The Above site is the seismic monitor site for Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology. it ia a fabulous site.  I just have a really bad feeling about all this. I also don't like the upcoming date either...06/06/06 or 666 just to creepy... With everything that is happening in the world, the volcanoes, the earthquakes, multiple possible pandemic strains..... I just feel we all should say some prayers. It might be time for all of us, what ever Religion you practice, to get right with God. Something is differently going on....
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Current Situation of Avian Influenza and human cases related to the H5 virus subtype
 



 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gimme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:28pm
diane,
Wow that map!!!  So many earthquakes, and the volcano getting ready to erupt is all part of that, I think.
 
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