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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

CLUSTER IN INDONESIA

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Jhetta View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:32pm
Thanks Diane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:21am
That cluster is now 6 dead in one family
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Diane-
Kilt-

Please put references (URLs) for the posts. I like to check them back each time. Thanks!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:01am
So, are these 4 "new" cases? They don't match up in age with a list of current people in the cluster? Help - I'm confused!

http://www.metrotvnews.com/berita.asp?id=16630

RSPI SULIANTI SAROSO treated four patients BIRD FLU 14/05/2006 12:15 - Social the Culture/Metro Siang
The Sulianti Saroso Infection hospital, Jakarta.
(Metro the TV) Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: The Number Of new patients that was expected suspect bird flu in the Infection Hospital (RSPI) Sulianti Saroso, Jakarta, Ahad (14/5), numbering four people.
Three patients were treated in intensive maintenance space (ICU), one him again in the Intensive Cempaka Maintenance.
The patient beinisial "B", was four years old, was treated in ICU since May 11.
"B" became the patient with suspect bird flu because of having his family's member with initials "M." (43 years) beforehand has suffered avian influenza.
"M." became the patient suspect bird flu/because of having his property poultry that died.
"M. was" treated" in ICU RSPI Sulianti Saroso since last May 8.
Moreover, the patient with initials "Mr" (12 years) also was treated in ICU. "Mr" it was suspected suffered bird flu because his neighbour maintained the poultry.
Now the newest patient, the man had the initials "H" (27 years), was treated in Intensive Cempaka Maintenance space.
"H" it was suspected suffered bird flu because of maintaining the poultry.
()
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote unpathedhaunts Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:04am
JAKARTA (Reuters) - An Indonesian toddler who had tested positive for bird flu according to local tests died on Sunday, a senior health ministry official said.
The 18-month boy's blood sample has been sent to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation. Local tests are not considered definitive.
I Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control at the health ministry, said the boy from North Sumatra was one of a family of five who had tested positive for bird flu according to local tests. Three of them have died in the past week.
Another health ministry official said the family had eaten chicken but had not had any direct contact with sick fowl, the usual mode of transmission of the disease to humans.
The WHO has confirmed 25 fatalities from avian influenza in the world's fourth most populous nation, the second highest number of human deaths after Vietnam.
The virus has spread in birds at an alarming rate in recent months, sweeping through parts of Europe, down into Africa and across into South Asia.
It is difficult for humans to catch, but experts fear the virus could evolve into a form passed easily from human to human, causing a pandemic that could kill millions.
In Indonesia, the H5N1 virus has been reported in birds in about two-thirds of the country's provinces.

www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.feedburner.com%2FReuters%2FGlobalCoverage2%3Fm%3D3480
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:11am

Indonesian tests confirm five people from one family died of bird flu
(AFP)

14 May 2006

JAKARTA - Five people from the same family have died of bird flu in Indonesia according to local tests, a health official said on Sunday.

The two men, two women and an eight-year-old girl lived closely with each other in the Karo district of North Sumatra and came from ”the same family tree,” said I Nyoman Kandun, the health ministry’s director general of disease control.

Kandun said the five had been in contact with sick poultry and pigs near their homes before they fell ill and died within days of each other over the past three weeks.

Results from local tests are routinely sent to a laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Hong Kong for confirmation, but are normally accurate.

“We are trying to prevent a possible outbreak by conducting limited culling in the area and performing better surveillance,”  Kandun told AFP. He ssid three other people from the group also tested positive but remain alive.

If the local tests are confirmed by the WHO-accredited laboratory, Indonesia’s death toll from avian influenza would rise to 30.

Asked if he was concerned about a possible wider spread of bird flu in the district, Kandun said: “Who in Indonesia is not at risk of being infected with bird flu?”

A 30-year-old resident of Jakarta’s satellite town of Tangerang was last week confirmed as Indonesia’s 25th fatality.

Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation, has witnessed more bird flu deaths than any other country this year. It has the second highest number of fatalities reported in the world since 2003, after Vietnam.

The WHO’s Asia chief Shigeru Omi this month urged it to work harder at grassroots level to combat the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

Most deaths in Indonesia have been in the capital and its surroundings, where many people live in close proximity to poultry despite the urban environment.

Bird flu has killed 115 people since late 2003, mostly in Asia. Experts fear the virus may mutate into a form that can pass easily between humans, sparking a pandemic.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/May/theworld_May515.xml&section=theworld&col=

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:21am
This is from another post in "Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Cluster in North Sumatra".....dated 5/11.
9 Suspected Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Patients ~ Combined from articles at bottom of page:

1. Fuji Ginting, Roy's father, Fuji, 40, Died on May 4 at Elisabeth Hospital.
2. Anta Beru Ginting, 29 years, Died on Wednesday May 5 at dawn earlier at Adam Malik Hospital
3. Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He Died Tuesday May 9 2006
4. Praise Br Ginting (Roys Mother) Died May 4. Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus.

Five relatives at this time still were treated intensive care in the same hospital, namely:

5. Jones Ginting (25),
6. Bonny Karo-karo (18)
7. Renaita Beru Tarigan a pre-schooler (1.8 years)

The last two patients who were treated were

8. Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan. (Medan is a town in Northern Sumatra)
9. Obviously Ulina Ginting (8).

I can't match up the 4 "new" ones in my post to this list? Opinions?



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:29am
Didn't some other, earlier articles mention an additional 12 that were being observed?

Not sure if it was the same cluster area. Maybe I'm getting these confused because I don't see them mentioned in the new articles.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:39am
Initially it was reported that 12 additonal people were under observation. I posted this yesterday from the "Indonesia-Ripe for Genetic Mutation" thread under Discussion:

"I copied this from the website of the map. It's a little more information, in the fact that they mention the other 12 people are in intensive care. They mention it twice.

While 12 assumption patients of other bird flu were still being treated intensive in RSUP Adam the Owner. Worry with the spreading of this deadly virus, the Government of the North Sumatran Province instruct the Health Service of the Karo Land to steril the area that it was suspected became the source of the spread. The sterilisation was carried out in a radius of one kilometre. Officially North Sumatran Livestock Breeding carried out the vaccination and spray in the house environment of the casualties. The above translation indicates 12 more suspected cases of H5N1 bird flu are being treated in intensive care at RSUP Adam, where five family members have already died. This may be why the two other hospitalized family members left the public hospital and are now in a private hospital, RS Elizabeth. 12 additional suspect cases are cause for concern. The first fatality was on May 4, followed by deaths on May 9, 10 and two deaths on May 12. More information on the 12 hospitalized patients would be useful".

Here's the site for the map: http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng
I scrolled down from the map and clicked on Sumatra and found the description of the 12 people.
So, I'm sort of wondering if these 4 people in my above post are part of the 12?   It's getting too confusing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:13am

What are the most important warning signals that a pandemic is about to start?

The most important warning signal comes when clusters of patients with clinical symptoms of influenza, closely related in time and place, are detected, as this suggests human-to-human transmission is taking place. For similar reasons, the detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 patients would suggest human-to-human transmission. Detection of such events should be followed by immediate field investigation of every possible case to confirm the diagnosis, identify the source, and determine whether human-to-human transmission is occurring.

Studies of viruses, conducted by specialized WHO reference laboratories, can corroborate field investigations by spotting genetic and other changes in the virus indicative of an improved ability to infect humans. This is why WHO repeatedly asks affected countries to share viruses with the international research community.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:21am
I'm confused too. Are there 12 suspected or 8 suspected. I think 5 or 6 died. Of the 8 or 12? or are there 20 suspected??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:48am
I found the answer, it looks like 20 suspected.

www.birdflubreakingnews.com
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:55am
This is very frightening. Now the nurse showing symptoms as well.

Aren't they entering the normal flu season in that part of the world?   

Think my brain just went into pause mode
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote unpathedhaunts Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:57am
H5N1 Symptoms in North Sumatra Health Care Worker

Recombinomics Commentary
May 14, 2006

A nurse who attended to some of the patients also came down with an influenza-like illness, although she seems to have shown symptoms prior to treating the patients, according to Dr. Kandun. She and others in the family's village are currently being tested for the virus.

Symptoms in health care workers caring for H5N1 bird flu patients are cause for concern. There are eight family members with birds lfu symptoms in a cluster in Medan, Indonesia. Six of the family members have died and at least 5 members in the cluster have tested positive for H5N1. This is the largest fatal cluster of H5N1 reported to date.

Media reports have indicated the hospital in Medan has 12 additional patients with bird flu symptoms. The relationship of these 12 patients to the 8 family members (who live in Karo but were hospialized in Medan) remains unclear, as do the dates of admission.

The index case for the familial cluster died on May 4 and the family members were admitted on or about the same day. It remains unclear when the additional 12 cases were admitted or if any of these patients had contact with the health care worker with symptoms.

More information on the HCW and the 12 additional patients would be useful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote unpathedhaunts Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:58am
So they have a nurse with flu-like symptoms treating H5N1 patients?????
A recipe for disaster?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:12am
Regardless of which came first - chicken or egg - this looks very bad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote niman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:15am
[QUOTE=Ruth]I found the answer, it looks like 20 suspected.

www.birdflubreakingnews.com[/QUOTE]
 
There are more than 20
 
 
(and more in Jakarta)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:26am
A light bulb just went off in my head. I get it now.   Niman is Dr. Niman (sorry) posting for Recombinomics.
I see you on Fluwikie also. So your commentary is based off of the fact that you have a Phd. in this. Sounds reliable and accurate to me. Now I'm really worried.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote niman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:39am
Originally posted by Ruth Ruth wrote:

A light bulb just went off in my head. I get it now.   Niman is Dr. Niman (sorry) posting for Recombinomics.
I see you on Fluwikie also. So your commentary is based off of the fact that you have a Phd. in this. Sounds reliable and accurate to me. Now I'm really worried.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:56am
I just read the above article. Thank you. When I'm online, I never really know who is who. This helps alot. Never had a problem with people who question others or question some of mainstream reasoning. Keep up the good work.
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H5Thumbs DownN1 Symptoms in North Sumatra Health Care Worker

Recombinomics Commentary

May 14, 2006

A nurse who attended to some of the patients also came down with an influenza-like illness, although she seems to have shown symptoms prior to treating the patients, according to Dr. Kandun. She and others in the family's village are currently being tested for the virus.

Symptoms in health care workers caring for H5N1 bird flu patients are cause for concern.  There are eight family members with birds lfu symptoms in a cluster in Medan, Indonesia.  Six of the family members have died and at least 5 members in the cluster have tested positive for H5N1.  This is the largest fatal cluster of H5N1 reported to date.
Disapprovemembers were admitted on or about the same day.  It remains unclear when the additional 12 cases were admitted or if any of these patients had contact with the health care worker with symptoms.

More information on the HCW and the 12 additional patients would be useful.

 
 
 
 
Fixed font:


Edited by Albert - May 14 2006 at 8:16am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eagles Dancing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:43am

Lutosh (Cindy)

I know this is off topic but I live in Coal City and I see you live in Greene County.  We are pretty close here in good ole' IN.
I would like have your personal email address so we can be in contact when the BF hits.  You seemed really informed on a lot of things and I would like to catch up to speed, seeing I am new to this forum.
My screen name is Eagles Dancing.  My email address is eaglesdancing@ccrtc.com if your are interested in emailing me.
Don't worry I'm not a male perv, just a fellow Indiana neighbor who is looking for local support during these trying times.
Looking to hear from you soon.
Lisa
As for me and my house, we shall trust the Lord.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MAJDAD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:52am
OK Folks add 4 more to the hunt we are now at 24 in one village with a health care worker.  If WHO is not on this NOW we are in for one heck of a ride.  We need to Watch Jakarta.  When it starts showing up there in numbers then it will break into the international Air Corridors and start the world wide burn.
 
 
 
Suspect H5N1 Patients in Jakarta Increase Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary

May 14, 2006

Three patients were treated in intensive maintenance space (ICU), one him again in the Intensive Cempaka Maintenance. The patient beinisial "B", was four years old, was treated in ICU since May 11. "B" became the patient with suspect bird flu because of having his family's member with initials "M." (43 years) beforehand has suffered avian influenza. "M." became the patient suspect bird flu/because of having his property poultry that died. "M. was" treated" in ICU RSPI Sulianti Saroso since last May 8. Moreover, the patient with initials "Mr" (12 years) also was treated in ICU. "Mr" it was suspected suffered bird flu because his neighbor maintained the poultry. Now the newest patient, the man had the initials "H" (27 years), was treated in Intensive Cempaka Maintenance space. "H" it was suspected suffered bird flu because of maintaining the poultry.

The above translation describes additional suspect H5N1 bird flu cases in Jakarta.  Included is yet another familial cluster (between "B" and "M").  These are in addition to the family of eight in North Sumatra where
six have died, and five are H5N1 positive.

There is also a
health care worker with symptoms as well as 12 additional suspect cases who are hospitalized in Medan.

These additional cases increase pandemic concerns,

 
Media Link

Map
Major Dad hopes you are all alive and well and looking out for each other
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:57am
ConfusedSpeechless ....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:00am
So these 4 are from Jakarta. They are not part of the 12. Nor are they part of the cluster in Sumatra.   
I just don't have words........................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:07am
oke ... now I have words... 'cause I just had a 'conversation' w/ DH ... he just read the Sunday paper where it's stated that BF is slowing down and the #'s in Vietnam & China are stopped.  He thinks I'm crazy getting so worked up and that I have no idea who you all are and if any of this is true! Angry Also made it clear that Indonesia is a 3rd world country ......! I'm talking to a wall here! And this is so frightening! -k
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MAJDAD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:17am

These 4 are not from Jakarta they are from Medina.  Jakarta is where they have taken the first cases too.  It may well be contained in Medina and that means we are OK.  Watch Jakarta for the break out.

 

Major Dad hopes you are all alive and well and looking out for each other
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:32am
Originally posted by oknut oknut wrote:

Indonesian tests confirm five people from one family died of bird flu
(AFP)

14 May 2006

....Kandun said the five had been in contact with sick poultry and pigs near their homes before they fell ill and died within days of each other over the past three weeks.

Dr Niman... have you heard anything in regard to these pigs.... I am assuming that they "could/might" have contributed to the fact that efficiency of transmission to humans seems to have increased in this cluster.
 
 


Edited by Jhetta - May 14 2006 at 9:35am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bjregg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:33am
ReadyMom,
Calm yourself, you have done and are doing what is right for you and your family.  We have no control relative to the spread and mutation of this problem, however, we need to keep in mind that each of us is responsible for our actions and planning.  Take care, bj
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:35am
Quotes from Nimans latest commentary are:

"The above translation describes additional suspect H5N1 bird flu cases in Jakarta." and
   
"There is also a health care worker with symptoms as well as 12 additional suspect cases who arehospitalized in Medan ."

I may be wrong, I've been wrong before.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MAJDAD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:47am
Let us not be too hasty here.  We are all sitting on the edge of our seats and holding our breath.  We need confirmation and we need to know FOR SURE that it has moved to Jakarta.  Everyone take a deep breath.  Enjoy today (Ready Mom you and DH go out and have a little fun)  all WE can do is watch and wait.
Major Dad hopes you are all alive and well and looking out for each other
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:04am
Here is a graphic last updated March 30th of Jakarta with recent H5N1 infections.  The Triangles are human infections... the circles are animal.  Use the scroll bar to scroll to the right to see more infections to the SouthEast of Jakarta in and around Bandung
 
Red Jan - April 2006
 
Light Blue  September-December 2005
 
Yellow  New events before March 30th
 



Edited by Jhetta - May 14 2006 at 10:07am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:28am
Fifth bird flu death in family

JAKARTA, Indonesia A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu on the island of Sumatra.

A senior Indonesian medical official says an investigation into the source of the infection is under way. The official also says samples from the patients have been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation.

Indonesia's death toll from the H-Five-N-One bird flu strain stands at 25. The toll is the second highest in the world, behind Vietnam.

Several victims have been members of the same family or lived near each other. Health officials closely study such groups of cases, known as "clusters."

Scientists are trying to determine whether the virus has mutated into a strain that can pass easily between humans. Such a scenario could be a precursor to a pandemic.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:42am
I thought the most recently reported four were a second cluster.

The family cluster of approx 8 is in North Sumatra - also the health care worker and 12 other various assorted cases are here as well.

The patients we found out about today are another family cluster on the island of Java - the city is Jakarta.

Take a look at the link below. Sumatra is in the bottom corner and Java is the island to the southeast.  I'll see if I can find a better map.

What do you think?

http://www.atlapedia.com/online/maps/political/Malaysia_etc.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:46am
Originally posted by aurora aurora wrote:

I'll see if I can find a better map.
 
I posted this on page one... hope it helps
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:57am
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Bird flu deaths in family hit five

A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to a senior medical official.

Monday, May 15, 2006

A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to a senior medical official.

The five are part of a large family in Tanah Karo village on Sumatra island in which eight people are suspected to have contracted the virulent H5N1 bird flu virus.

Earlier tests have confirmed four members of the family died from the disease over the past week while new tests confirmed the fifth death was due to bird flu as well, said Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry's office of communicable disease control, Sunday.

He said doctors currently could not reveal the gender of the fifth fatality.

"We are still discussing this matter," he said.

He said samples from the patients have been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation.

"We are continuing to investigate this case," Kandun said. "We are trying to find the source of the virus."

He said a sixth family member, a 40-year-old woman, had also died but that samples had not been taken for laboratory tests.

"The person died earlier and has been buried," he said.

Asked whether doctors would try to obtain samples, Kandun declined to comment.

He said investigators were checking poultry near the village, since veterinarians had found no signs of bird flu among chickens and other animals in the village itself.

Indonesia's official human death toll from the H5N1 bird flu strain is 25 - the world's second-highest number after Vietnam.

Health officials closely study such groups of cases, known as "clusters," to see whether the virus, which currently is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, may have mutated into a form that can easily be passed between humans - a scenario that many fear could trigger a global human pandemic. ASSOCIATED PRESS

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=17&art_id=18691&sid=7958542&con_type=1



Edited by fluprepper - May 14 2006 at 11:01am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:21am
Metrotvnews.com, Medan:
Another from eight patients who were expected terjangkit bird flu in North Sumatra, died.
He was Renata Boru Taringan, 1.6 years.
Renata died to Ahad, around struck 02.
00 WIB when undergoing the maintenance in Adam's Hospital the Owner, Medan.
His body was afterwards brought to his house in the Simbelang Fortification Village, the Subdistrict of three bows, the Karo Regency, North Sumatra.
Renata became casualties died sixth resulting from the ferocity of bird flu that infected one family.
Apart from Renata, his family's five members died it was suspected resulting from bird flu.
Two people more up to now still are remaining.
A person is currently treated in RSUD Adam the Owner.
Whereas another whether where after bolting in the hospital.
The casualties died namely Rafael Ginting (10 years), Boni Karokaro (18 years), Roy Karokaro (19 years), Anta Boru Ginting (29 years), and Praise Boru Ginting (40 years).
Whereas two that still was living he Jones Ginting (25 years) and Obviously Boru Ginting (35 years)
As a result of bird flu spread, villagers's other attitude that expelled villagers the Simbelang Fortification, the place of the family of bird flu casualties was complained about .

For example, the treatment of children during the school as well as the transport that refused to bring these villagers.

Up to now, the local Health Service was still researching the source of the spread of bird flu in the Karo Regency.
However, Siti Fadil -lah Supari Health Minister expected the source of the spread from manure.
http://www.metrotvnews.com/berita.asp?id=16650
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JaxMax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:28am
Analysis-
 
I will leave the map location analysis and the ferreting out of specific clusters to the more computer literate. Aurora, Jhetta and others are doing a great job, and this is why I monitor this website.
 
What I want to do is take a moment and look at the entire forest, not just individual trees.
 
We know the following 1-5, from numerous post on this site:
 
1. Indonesia is endemic for bird H5N1. They have numerous chickens and people own birds as pets.
 
2. Indonesia has 25 confirmed H5N1 human fatalities
 
3. The WHO expressed a deep concern, almost fatalistic, about Indonesia,
just last week.
 
4. Indonesia suffers from an earthquake almost every day. As others have pointed out, some are on land some are on water. Usually 5.1, yesterday a 6.1.Add volcanoes and you will stress a already rudimentary sanitation system.  
 
5. Now we have 1 or 2 clusters, whichever the case may ultimately be.
 
Now we have Vietnam and Thailand mounting a public relations offensive that they have solved the H5N1 problem.
 
Why now?
 
Vietnam and Thailand are not under any type of CDC quarrantine or sanctions.
 
Why suddenly announce they are H5N1 free?
 
Why did the official Chinese news agency Xinhua criticize Indonesia's containment efforts last week?
 
Any time there is a quantum change in news, we need to review what has happened inthe last week.No one else is doing this. We saw the same type of intel constructed from disclosures in England about the swan.
 
I  (you may choose the appropriate letter)
 
a. speculate
b. guess
c.  have paranoid delusions
d. analyze
e. strongly suspect
 
that the WHO knew or suspected the clusters at the time of their press release last week. I admit I have no evidence of this, no hyperlink. It just fits a pattern.
 
It would also seem timely that Thailand and Vietnam are attempting to distance themselves from the feared H2H readilly transmissible H5N1 of Indonesia, at least in public relations.Indonesia is their neighbor to the south.


Edited by JaxMax - May 14 2006 at 11:34am
He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:33am
Tests confirm five Indonesians from one family died of bird flu 
 
Antara News  ~ The Indonesian News Agency 
May 15, 2006
 
Tests confirm five Indonesians from one family died of bird flu
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Five people from the same family have died of bird flu in Indonesia according to local tests, a health official said Sunday.

The two men, two women and an eight-year-old girl lived closely with each
other in the Karo district of North Sumatra and came from "the same family tree," I Nyoman Kandun, the health ministry's director general of disease control, was quoted by AFP as saying.

Kandun said the five had been in contact with sick poultry and pigs near their homes before they fell ill and died within days of each other over the past three weeks.

Results from local tests are routinely sent to a laboratory accredited by
the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Hong Kong for confirmation, but are normally accurate.

"We are trying to prevent a possible outbreak by conducting limited culling in the area and performing better surveillance," Kandun told AFP. He ssid three other people from the group also tested positive but remain alive.

If the local tests are confirmed by the WHO-accredited laboratory,
Indonesia's death toll from avian influenza would rise to 30.

Asked if he was concerned about a possible wider spread of bird flu in the district, Kandun said: "Who in Indonesia is not at risk of being infected with bird flu?"

A 30-year-old resident of Jakarta's satellite town of Tangerang was last week confirmed as Indonesia's 25th fatality.

Highest number of fatalities

Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, has witnessed more bird flu deaths than any other country this year. It has the second highest number of fatalities reported in the world since 2003, after Vietnam.

The WHO's Asia chief Shigeru Omi this month urged it to work harder at
grassroots level to combat the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

Most deaths in Indonesia have been in the capital and its surroundings,
where many people live in close proximity to poultry despite the urban
environment.

Bird flu has killed 115 people since late 2003, mostly in Asia. Experts
fear the virus may mutate into a form that can pass easily between humans, sparking a pandemic. (*)


Edited by Jhetta - May 14 2006 at 11:59am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:33am
Very perceptive and well put JaxMax.

As usual, I agree with your opinion that the "bird flu free" news is a smokescreen or diversion.

It sure doesn't help us convince the rest to prep.
What are they thinking?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JaxMax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:39am
oknut-
 
If Indonesia has real H2H family clusters, and H2H health care clusters, everyone is just in damage control mode.I suspect each country had a planned public relations response prepared in the event of H2H, much like the military has armed contingency plans.
 
The plans themselves are not important, the fact the plans have been executed is supremely important. 
He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:43am
Jax... I would not be comfortable with number 4 unless we get some real data regarding damage....
 
We are getting propaganda pumped at us from Asia and Europe.
 
When I see info contrary to the facts at hand... I start wondering what they are covering up...
 
I start to hunt for the truth... we need to look for our data in places other than the media...
 
Does anyone have any ideas!


Edited by Jhetta - May 14 2006 at 11:45am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trident/Delta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:54am
JAKARTA, Indonesia -- A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to local tests, a senior medical official said Sunday.

The other four died from the disease early last week, said Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry's office of communicable disease control. In all, eight members of the family in Tanah Karo village on Sumatra are suspected of having contracted the virulent H5N1 bird flu virus.

Indonesia's official human death toll from the virus is now 25, the world's second-highest after Vietnam, which recorded about four dozen deaths but where international health experts said earlier this year that outbreaks of H5N1 infections in people and poultry had been largely stamped out.

Officials pay particular attention to cases of multiple related deaths such as those in Indonesia. The virus now is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, and experts study "cluster" cases looking for signs that H5N1 may have mutated into a form easily passed between humans - a scenario that many fear could trigger a global human pandemic.

Kandun said samples from the patients had been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation that they died of bird flu.

He also revealed that a sixth family member died previously, but samples from the body had not been taken for laboratory investigation. "The person died earlier and has been buried," he said.

Asked whether doctors would obtain samples from the body, Kandun declined to comment.

"We are continuing to investigate this case," he said. "We are trying to find the source of the virus."

He said investigators were checking poultry near the family's village, since veterinarians had found no signs of bird flu among chickens and other animals in the village itself.

T/D note: interesting that the **** chickens DON'T have the virus!

International experts hope Vietnam's campaign to vaccinate its poultry against H5N1 will serve as an example for other countries in dealing with the virus, which has killed more than 100 people in all.

Once the epicenter for bird flu, Vietnam hasn't had seen any people infected since November and there haven't been any poultry outbreaks since December.

"We are actually disease-free in Vietnam for the moment," Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization representative in Vietnam, said in late March. "We're probably not virus-free, but what the mass vaccination has done is reduce the virus load in the environment - we have less virus circulating."

Vietnam started its nationwide eradication campaign in August 2005. Officials in the poor communist nation say they vaccinated millions of chickens and ducks, slaughtered millions more and educated citizens about the disease.

Outside experts, however, caution that immunization is not a simple solution.

It is so expensive that "you just can't keep it up," said Peter Roeder, an animal health expert with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization who advises Asian countries on bird flu.


Source: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb.../API/605140628
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:55am
JaxMax: I agree with you that WHO was well aware of the situation when they made their press release last week. I think China is critisizing Indo because Indo is being more "upfront" and China thinks that they are making them look bad (because they've been concealing it for so long...and still are).
Maybe as far as Thailand and Vietnam, if they can claim to be completely clean of H5N1, and they wait....just a little bit longer.....they can come out and say it spread from Indonesia to them. It all started in Indonesia......
what do you think?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trident/Delta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:55am
JAKARTA, Indonesia -- A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to local tests, a senior medical official said Sunday.

The other four died from the disease early last week, said Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry's office of communicable disease control. In all, eight members of the family in Tanah Karo village on Sumatra are suspected of having contracted the virulent H5N1 bird flu virus.

Indonesia's official human death toll from the virus is now 25, the world's second-highest after Vietnam, which recorded about four dozen deaths but where international health experts said earlier this year that outbreaks of H5N1 infections in people and poultry had been largely stamped out.

Officials pay particular attention to cases of multiple related deaths such as those in Indonesia. The virus now is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, and experts study "cluster" cases looking for signs that H5N1 may have mutated into a form easily passed between humans - a scenario that many fear could trigger a global human pandemic.

Kandun said samples from the patients had been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation that they died of bird flu.

He also revealed that a sixth family member died previously, but samples from the body had not been taken for laboratory investigation. "The person died earlier and has been buried," he said.

Asked whether doctors would obtain samples from the body, Kandun declined to comment.

"We are continuing to investigate this case," he said. "We are trying to find the source of the virus."

He said investigators were checking poultry near the family's village, since veterinarians had found no signs of bird flu among chickens and other animals in the village itself.

T/D note: interesting that the **** chickens DON'T have the virus!

International experts hope Vietnam's campaign to vaccinate its poultry against H5N1 will serve as an example for other countries in dealing with the virus, which has killed more than 100 people in all.

Once the epicenter for bird flu, Vietnam hasn't had seen any people infected since November and there haven't been any poultry outbreaks since December.

"We are actually disease-free in Vietnam for the moment," Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization representative in Vietnam, said in late March. "We're probably not virus-free, but what the mass vaccination has done is reduce the virus load in the environment - we have less virus circulating."

Vietnam started its nationwide eradication campaign in August 2005. Officials in the poor communist nation say they vaccinated millions of chickens and ducks, slaughtered millions more and educated citizens about the disease.

Outside experts, however, caution that immunization is not a simple solution.

It is so expensive that "you just can't keep it up," said Peter Roeder, an animal health expert with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization who advises Asian countries on bird flu.


Source: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb.../API/605140628
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