Preparing for Disruption of Food Supply - Event Date: May 16 2006

Here is an article from my blog that I thought I would share here as well. I think that it is very relevant to this discussion:

I think her point is that the larger population can't really count on farmers getting back into volume production of food because farmers can't risk being around all of the staff that would be necessary to do all of that planting and harvesting.  Individual farmers can surely plant some crops, but that is not going to be nearly enough to feed more than their family, friends and perhaps a few others. 

Folks you have to remember that most of the "family run" farms are gone.  What we have are mostly big companies that lease out the land to many growers that then harvest and take to the company grain soles.

Irene wrote: If you are talking about small vegetable or dairy farmers I agree.   However, I doubt grain farmers on the prairies have much "staff". They have some pretty pricey farm equipment which allows them to plant acres of grain.   It's quite a sight to drive on the prairies and see the massive fields of wheat and other crops.

I know this figure sound ridiculous, but I was researching an article and came across the reference that America is losing 300 small farmers a day.

I didn't believe it, until I finished researching my article.  It's true.  The mega-farm-corporation monopoly has got us all by the short-hairs. If they fail, we fail, it's that simple.

There are many other possible "gotcha's" to societal collapse besides pandemic.  Having all of our eggs in one basket create incredible vulnerabilities for every American.  The rising costs of energy (fuel) to run these farms is already being reflected throughout the entire economy.  What will happen when one or more nations shut off the oil artery?

This is only one of many areas that are being overlooked by many people when they consider our "dependency" status on the mega-corporations to keep us all alive.  Simply put, we live (exist) because they continue to function. If they were to stop functioning for any reason, so would we.

You can't just rush out and plant a garden and sustain yourself.  This doesn't work and requires a lot of time, commitment and favorable factors. Meanwhile, if all goes well, you still have to eat.

The actual calorie requirement for each human is now being met only because of the mega farms we have today.  Disable the farms (for any reason), you disable the people (think die-off).  We could switch to locally grown, but not fast enough, and not wide enough to avoid massive starvation.

Pandemic is only part of the problem.  Starving to death is another.

Thanks for the referral.  I have read some of his work during my own research.   I doubt very many people realize just how serious the situation is.   We're too isolated from the cause and effect that we're creating.

I'm almost finished with Jared Diamond's "Collapse" which depcits the global environmental destruction (food sources) of past and present societies.  The current situation should be clamoriing alarm bells worldwide, but is still barely getting noticed.

I am beginning to doubt that the human race will survive another 200 years. The exponential increase in failed ecosystems, collapsing species, pollution, fresh water, salinity, climate change, overgrazing, loss of topsoil, overpopulation and many other factors indicate a massive shift from mega-production farms (failures) to locally grown (if possible).

But there is a lot of doubt in my mind that this paradigm shift is even possible.  I'll go into this more on my blog in articles to come.

    Farms require a fair amount of fuel and power to operate.

You need:

Fuel for the tractors (and parts)

Electricity to run the well pumps for well-irrigated crops, and to water animals. A cow can drink 50 gallons of water a day.

Electricity for refrigeration to keep crops and meat cold until it can be shipped. Certain crops also need to be dried.

For farms, fuel for the vehicles and infrastructure used to feed the animals -- it'd take a LOT of strong labor to carry bales of hay by hand to every cow in a large feedlot.

Fuel to deliver crops to market -- semis need a LOT of fuel.

Fuel & electricity to run packing & processing plants -- and the labor for this.

For dairy farms, electricity & supplies needed to milk the cows. This is NOT done by a young woman sitting on a stool beside a doe-eyed brown cow anymore. It's done by machine. And they need disinfectants and parts in addition to electricity to run the milking machines. If they can't milk the cows, they're up a creek -- the cows may very well develop mastitis and die in a big hurry. One farmer (or farmer's family & employees) are NOT going to be able to milk all the cows on a large dairy operation by hand.

Certain crops also need lots and lots of labor. Most fruits and many veggies are picked by hand, not machine.

Leva
    
    

I Know that in Europe during the depression and the two world wars people would come from the city to work the farms in exchange for food. I imagine we will see something along those lines again.

I live near many farms. Most people living here dont even know that the corn growing around my town is feed or seed corn.All of the farmers work in factories due to the need of health insurance.Small family run farms are a side jobs. When a storm hits my area the farmers sure do run to the stores for food. Some city folks think farmers are sitting on food. That was true 30 years ago.It may be diffrent in other areas, but not here.I do believe if BFpandemic hits the stores will be cleaned out in 1 hour. I base this on the amount of food stores that have gone out of busines in the last 5 years.

opps144,
Everything will empty out, as soon as there is a percieved shortage. Just ask the people in Hurricane country.

purplepanther wrote: I read somewhere that grocery stores keep  1 to 2  week supply in the stores . So you can imagine how many people who are not prepared may not even get food to eat and the panic they would be in if they waited the last minute to buy anything.

There is no way grocery stores have a 1-2 week supply on hand. As a vendor, I have worked in many different stores and most grocery stores have what is out on the shelves. There is very little in the stockrooms, stuff that is going on sale, some canned goods, they have a refrigerated section in the back with milk and some dairy but not huge amounts, even Walmart does not have a huge backstock. Most items are delivered on a daily basis or several times a week: dairy, bread, beer, soda, chips are all delivered by individual vendors (the Lays guy delivers his chips, the Toms guy delivers his chips, the Pepsi guy delivers his products, the Coke guy delivers his products) etc. Sure there are a few pallets of things in the back, but nothing even close to what is on the floor. You might see a big truck pull in to make a delivery and it may only leave 1 or 2 pallets of something, he is making deliveries all over, not just to one store. As a shopper, I know any time bad weather comes along and there is any notice, the stores are wiped out of things like bread and milk, the basics, and that is in one day. I have no doubt that there will be shortages. I was in Walmart yesterday and they had NO bottled water in the gallons, their shelves were bare, they only had a few 2 gal containers and individual bottles/cases. When you see shelves empty like that you can be assured there is none in the stockroom, because they would not be losing $$$$. If they had it, they would stock it just like any other store, they are out to sell it and it's not going to sell in the stockroom. So yes, I am sure there will be shortages, especially with people being ill and unable to make deliveries. All these people have routes and work long hours so even if one or two gets sick, then someone has to take over their route, they don't just have extra employees to make deliveries, so some deliveries will not get made and the employees that do work will be overworked.

TotallyReady wrote: Also the dates on meds, other than liquids, are pull dates not expiration dates.  The meds are good for a year after that date.

Be careful with this.  Some meds (Penicillin is one, if memory serves) actually become toxic past their expiration dates. 

 A couple of days ago I was talking to the manager of Walmart, I asked him had many people started buying hurricane supplie yet.  He said yes, they seem to be buying a lot of water, flour and sugar.  Flour and sugar does not seem like normal hurrican supplies to me.  He also said that they, had sold 500 gas cans per week, for the past 3 months.  So somebody is getting ready for something. 

I finally found a Canadian source for #10 cans of dehydrated foods. When I was talking to the owner on the phone, long-distance, he told me that his sales spiked up after the Oprah Winfrey show on Bird Flu a couple of weeks ago and he was having trouble keeping items in stock.

I have noticed sugar is low in a lot of stores. I bought 20 bags long ago and that for three people and I dont bake . My next urgent item is flour poor wheat crop expected.      

Be careful when storing flour.  It has a short shelf life.  It is best stored in the freezer or canned in a # 10 can with an oxygen packet.  If you have Mormon friends they can advise you if there is a church cannery in your area and they have the ability to can many items and it is cost effective.  You can also bring your own products to these canneries...ask around.  You can also vacuum pack flour and then store it in a dark, cool place to extend the life.  Remember pests love...these so place them in a container that is rodent resistant.

SafetyLady, which state are you in?

Exactly!!  Have you ever noticed that it is common for several grocery or pharmacy stores have the same items on special the same week?  This is because the suppliers have run their own special prices to their customers.  When you see huge discounts it is almost always a sign that the items are about to expire so beware.  As discussed before, foods are warehoused off site not at your local store.  But remember that is still a pull date not an expiration date.  You do not need to throw these foods away.  Use common sense and discard cans and packages that are bulging or foods that smell or look discolored.  Boil foods uncovered for 10 minutes and this should assure foods are safe unless there is bulging, a strange smell or discoloration of the food, in that case...toss it.