Why I think November

Latin America is a disaster waiting to happen when it comes to a pandemic.  When/if the BF breaks-out down there the U.S. will need mucho troops along our southern border to slow down the northern migration of the virus from illegals.  Border crossings, planes, trains,ships will need to be halted.  In my opinion this Administration will not find the courage to curtail that much commerce from the multi-national corps.  P.S. Off Topic// What the heck is going on in the Rayburn Building in Washington?  Freaky?

People fleeing a Pandemic in Mexico would not go to Guatamala. 

Joe, I'm surprised that I don't see more discussion on the fact that WHO or the docs took NOSE & THROAT swabs from the victims in Indonesia and confirmed H5N1 from that. Isn't that exactly what we're looking for in a pandemic strain or what am I missing?

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Maybe is has gone through some type of reassortment already. I did a google search on Nidom and bird flu and came up with some interesting results. He seems to be credible. Plus this is not the first time he has gone public about H5N1!


JAKARTA, May 26 (Xinhua) -- Indonesian bird flu researcher CA Nidom MS said he was convinced that human-to-human bird flu infection had been taking place in Indonesia, official news agency Antara reported on Friday. "I am convinced human-to-human infection has been taking place because studies have found the development of H3N2 and H1N1 strains of bird flu virus which originated from H5N1 virus. Much more, fowl-to-human infection cannot yet be proven since the death of Iwan in Tangerang," he said on the sidelines of a seminar on bird flu in Surabaya, East Java, on Friday. Nidom, a researcher of the Tropical Disease Centre (TDC) of theUniversity of Airlangga (Unair)'s Medical School, made the remarks in response to a statement by a World Health Organization official that bird flu infection from human to human had been found in the village of Kubu Sembelang, Tanah Karo district, North Sumatra, Indonesia. According to Nidom, who is also a lecturer at the Unair's Medical School, the WHO official's statement was logical because the avian influenza was just like a common flu so that there was no need to be panicked. "I have disclosed this conclusion in Pontianak last April," he added. Seven of the nine dead victims were cluster victims who suffered from the same symptoms, WHO spokesman Peter Cordingley said in Manila on Thursday. But the WHO conclusion was denied by Health Minister Siti Fadila Supari. "The cluster bird flu case in Tana Karo cannot yet be said a human-to-human bird flu case because proof on the mutation of virus DNA which is identical with the H5N1 strain of virus that infected the nine victims has not yet been found. And there is no proof of epidemiological human-to-human infection," the minister said. As the disease expands all over the world, experts fear that the virus can mutate into a certain form that easily transmits from human to human, which will kill millions of people. Some 27 out of 33 provinces in Indonesia have been contracted with bird flu, while human fatality stands at 32 and infections at 43, according to the WHO. All over the world, the WHO has raised the confirmed human death toll from the H5N1 bird flu strain to 122, while the total number of confirmed human infections since the current outbreak began in 2003 has reached 216. Enditem

Editor: Liu Dan http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/26/content_4605729.htm

People fleeing a Pandemic in Mexico would not go to Guatamala.


Where would they be fleeing to, you can't flee to another country in a pandemic, it's there also.

Why are we putting Reserve troops on the border Ruth?  They can't do much of anything now but  the Reserves under a state Govenor can kick booty in a national crisis.   Coincidence?  Not, They'll lock that baby down in a pandemic.   Mexico won't do sqwat,  we'll have to contain that threat.  It is what it is.

 

TrailsEnd wrote: Illegals know that they are entitled to emergency room services in the U.S.  That's why they'll be coming here.   And that will further overwhelm border state hospitals.

    
Sadly, that's more than uninsured Americans can expect.

Ruth wrote: People fleeing a Pandemic in Mexico would not go to Guatamala. Where would they be fleeing to, you can't flee to another country in a pandemic, it's there also.

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Now that's funny Chrystle lol. 

Melody4Avon wrote: DAXcom...do you think that is why we are putting our military on the border? For the bird flu?

I am not aware of any military units or personnel on the border.  I have heard a lot of talk, but as of today no legislation has been passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives which is what is required for proposals to become law.  I was listening to NPR earlier and from what I gathered it'll be after the November elections before anything is passed and probably not even at that point.  Both the Senate and the House are taking the next 45 days off for vacation...and both sides are unwilling to comprimise on certain points in regard to the Senate proposal and the House Resolution 4437.

Kilt what is SH?

oknut,
I hope you have a filter or something on top of the chimney to keep out the bird poop, bird nest, etc. 

Re the Inodnesia situation, I am looking forward to Joe's response.  For that H2H2H to get to here, there's going to have to be some international traveling of that strain of the virus, and I am just not sure yet about that happening so quickly...e.g., a health care worker, or someone else getting in close contact to those folks who would later travel or pass it on to others who would travel.

Femvet wrote: Joe, I'm surprised that I don't see more discussion on the fact that WHO or the docs took NOSE & THROAT swabs from the victims in Indonesia and confirmed H5N1 from that. Isn't that exactly what we're looking for in a pandemic strain or what am I missing?

Though the virus can be present in the nose and throat swabs, it does not replicate in those tissues very well, YET.

In birds, it is an intestinal virus that replicates in the intestinal tissue.

In humans the tissue most like the birds intestinal tissue is our deep lung tissue.  Though I am certain that some H5N1 replication can and does take place in the nose and throat tissue of humans, most replication take place in the lungs at present.  That is the reason for the pneumonia.

Spanish Flu attacked both the upper and lower respiratory tract.  When H5N1 gains that capacity, the pandemic will be on.

Based on the graph I just saw on-line, it looks like we are heading up the steep side of an exponential curve relating to BF infections.  Based on this trend I would say that fall provides an opportunity for increased H2H.  That's just my hunch.  Since we don't have a crystal ball we had best be prepared. 

  oknut, i would get my chimney cleaned early, and gather your wood early it needs time to dry.  These will be very essential things for the winter.  i was told you need about 5 cords of wood to get thur a winter season.  My chimney cleaner was out last week, and i asked him about putting in a new wood stove, he repiled if you decide you want a new stove get it before  the end of July, after that i will be booked solid.  These guys can get extremely busy.

SH is southern hemisphere - sorry

My understanding is bird flu can resort with other diseases too, to gain the one protien that makes it easier to pass from human to human. Indonisia has a lot of diseases some that we have got rid of. I believe they worry about flu season because there are more people with the ability to make that resort.