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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Four new cases of H7N9 reported

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jacksdad View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 02 2014 at 10:15pm

ShanghaiDaily.com

4 new cases of H7N9 bird flu reported
Source: Xinhua | February 3, 2014, Monday

four more human cases of H7N9 bird flu — including one death — were reported in China yesterday.

They included two cases, one of whom died, in Guangdong Province and one in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.

A fourth case was an 8-year-old girl who has been to a live poultry market in central China’s Hunan Province. She is in a stable condition.

A 63-year-old man died on Saturday in Shenzhen in Guangdong, while the other case of Guangdong is a 37-year-old man from Zhongshan who is in a critical condition, said the provincial health department yesterday.

Guangxi reported its first case this year yesterday, a 75-year-old man from Liuzhou. He is in a critical condition.

The man had been in contact with live poultry before he fell ill on January 27, the regional health department said. This is the second case in Guangxi since 2009.

China has reported more than 100 human H7N9 cases — including more than 20 deaths — this year, mostly in Guangdong and Zhejiang Province.

Strengthened prevention and control measures include the closure of live poultry markets in some cities.

On Saturday, six new cases and one death were reported.

Of the new cases, two were in Guangdong, two in Zhejiang, one in Fujian Province and one in Hunan. Guangdong’s two cases were two boys, aged five and six, who are in a stable condition.

An 82-year-old H7N9 patient died on Friday in Guangdong.

Last Friday, Shanghai halted live poultry trading for three months. The city has reported eight H7N9 infections and four deaths this year.


http://www.shanghaidaily.com/national/4-new-cases-of-H7N9-bird-flu-reported/shdaily.shtml




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2014 at 10:33pm
And this from yesterday's edition (02/02/14) -


ShanghaiDaily.
com

6 new H7N9 cases reported in China
Source: Xinhua | February 2, 2014, Sunday | Online Edition

Six new human cases of H7N9 bird flu and one death case were reported in China yesterday, according to local health authorities.

The new cases included two in the southern Guangdong Province, two in the eastern Zhejiang Province, one in the eastern Fujian Province and one in Hunan Province in central China.

Two boys aged five and six respectively, were confirmed yesterday to have been infected with the disease in Guangdong, said the provincial health department. Both are in stable conditions.

An 82-year-old H7N9 patient died on Friday in Guangdong.

In Zhejiang, the two new cases were an 80-year-old farmer and a 54-year-old worker. Both live in the provincial capital Hangzhou. They are being treated in hospitals and in critical conditions.

Since Jan. 1, more than 100 human H7N9 cases, including about 20 deaths, have been reported in several provinces in China, with Zhejiang and Guangdong most affected.

Health authorities have strengthened H7N9 prevention and control measures including the closure of live poultry markets in some affected cities.


http://www.shanghaidaily.com/national/6-new-H7N9-cases-reported-in-China/shdaily.shtml



"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2014 at 7:13am
Ok, I'm going to play 'devils advocate' here...
In their CURRENT forms - which is worse H1N1 OR H7N9?

I think most followers of this site feel China is under reporting and the article above says 100 cases with 20 deaths since Jan1... even if we 5x that so 500 cases & 100 deaths in the month at approx. 1.354 Billion ppl

and

as reported as another topic on this site - California has a population of 38 Million has had 147 deaths this 'season'... so not just month of January but much higher ratio (and H2H).

I'm very aware (nightmare aware!) that concerns are for H7N9 to get faster/easier H2H transmission &/or mix with another bug like the H1N1, but how do the two compare as of right now and also how do % of death etc compare? I think its been mentioned that a virus usually gives up some lethality (is that a word?!?!) in exchange for transmission - any guesses on how much???
Hoping to survive what mother nature throws at us (for stomping all over her)!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2014 at 5:14pm
H7N9 Is a monster!!!! The head of the WHO rated as more dangerous than SARS. Others have likened it to the Spanish flu... It has a very high death rate as its not been seen in the human population before. Its mainly a bird to human virus, but this has changed recently. It now has the ability to jump from Human back to birds. Which has significant implications. (this jumping has been scientifically proven)

One conclusion i came to was that if the virus can now leave humans and jump back and forth between birds and humans the logical conclusion is it must then be able to jump from human to human. This hasn't been scientifically proven, but pure logic indicates its true.

We have seen evidence of clustering in China. This is the canary in the coal mine and gives us an indication of Human to human transmission. Also this has just been confirmed by the Chinese government. they say its sporadic h2h transmission, but those that know how china works think this is very significant.

H7N9 has the potential to cut large swathes through the human population. 


H1N1 is the most common form of the flu. We have antibodies to deal with it. There is a low death rate with the virus... Its a powderpuff. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2014 at 5:49pm
I agree with cobber. I don't have any real concerns about H1N1 unless some one in a billion mutation takes place. H7N9 has come a long way in a year, and it's only officially left the Chinese mainland in a handful of cases. We have no idea what will happen when it does start spreading outside of China and mixing with even more flu strains. It's CFR and ability to adapt are both fearsome, and I believe cobber's assessment of it's potential is right on the money if our luck runs out.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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