Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > General Discussion > Off Topic Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Get a Grip everyone
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Get a Grip everyone

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 7>
Author
Message
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Get a Grip everyone
    Posted: October 09 2014 at 4:14pm
By Michaeleen Doucleff

Holy moly! There’s a case of Ebola in the U.S.!

That first reaction was understandable. There’s no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa.

The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn’t quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital.

But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep.

“I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country,” said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden.

Why is Frieden so sure this virus won’t spread beyond a handful of cases?

It boils down to something called “R0.”


https://richarddawkins.net/2014/10/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola/

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
ENTROPY View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: July 19 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 171
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ENTROPY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 5:35pm
PLEASE GIVE US YOUR REAL ACTUAL NAME...JJD...
EYE in the SKY
Back to Top
Germ Nerdier View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group


Joined: September 20 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 3380
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 5:39pm
If no secondary cases of Ebola turn up in Dallas, it's because Duncan knew before he landed that he had it.
Ebola didn't magically become hard to catch.
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 5:57pm
The RO is 2

pffft get a grip for god's sake

The Africans wash the corpse of the dead family member and then the rest of the family drink the water - so Ebola spreads.

The RO is 2 - its hard to catch for people who do not do strange things with the body.


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
nc_girl View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: January 19 2006
Location: NC
Status: Offline
Points: 2738
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nc_girl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 6:17pm
and yet Kilt, others have caught it by simply touching their face (Spain) or getting splashed (NBC camerman) or touching an arm (Bentley), etc.???

Back to Top
Germ Nerdier View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group


Joined: September 20 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 3380
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 6:20pm
Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

The RO is 2

pffft get a grip for god's sake

The Africans wash the corpse of the dead family member and then the rest of the family drink the water - so Ebola spreads.

The RO is 2 - its hard to catch for people who do not do strange things with the body.



First wave of the Spanish flu was 1.8
What's your point?

FYI, mourners eat and drink from common cup and bowl, as many cultures do.
What is your information source for drinking corpse run-off?
I have never heard of that.

Oh yeah, and Ebola is still contagious, regardless of how well Mr. Duncan may have kept it to himself.

pffftt back at ya.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Online
Points: 39176
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 6:21pm
Originally posted by ENTROPY ENTROPY wrote:

PLEASE GIVE US YOUR REAL ACTUAL NAME...JJD...


The reason we use the names we do is because most of us are preppers, and the smart ones do it under the radar. You don't your neighbors to know that you have the supplies they need in an emergency.
Anonymity is respected here.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 7:12pm
Get a grip Ebola is not that contagious.

All the hysteria about it is over reach. Its lies. The flu is the real deal

https://richarddawkins.net/2014/10/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola/


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 7:18pm
Originally posted by nc_girl nc_girl wrote:

and yet Kilt, others have caught it by simply touching their face (Spain) or getting splashed (NBC camerman) or touching an arm (Bentley), etc.???


Sure - of course.

But only when the person was sick or dead.

If this bug infected others before symptoms it would be a global killer but it doesn't.

Its like SARS - only when symptomatic - but don't wash the body and then drink the water.

Its a mess sure - because people do stupid things but its a storm in a tea cup
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
onefluover View Drop Down
Admin Advisor Group
Admin Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: April 21 2013
Location: Death Valleyish
Status: Offline
Points: 20151
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 7:46pm
A Chinese tea cup?
"And then there were none."
Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 21850
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 7:50pm

can anybody say when an ebola pt becomes contagious ???


eg

the experts and MSM keep repeating that unless your running a fever your not contagious

38.6 centigrade is the # used


so at noon I don't have a temp and am not contagious?

but at 1pm I spike a fever so presto chango now I can spread it ?

and I wasn't spreading it at noon or 11:30 ???


does that even make sense?

but that is what we are being told


sorry

I've got a good imagination

but it's not that damn good


something ain't right here

Back to Top
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 35800
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 8:28pm
Kilt- You may be right or you maybe completely wrong about China, but on this subject I'm 100% in your corner! There has only been one (1) death from Ebola in the U.S. and it was an imported case! I'm considering buying stock in Reynold's Aluminum and Norcross hip waders! The misinformation and conspiracy theories are getting hip deep around here! Everyone needs to chill! Speculation and stories about suspected cases are not helpful!
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
Jen147 View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: March 23 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 17024
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Jen147 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 9:34pm
Originally posted by Satori Satori wrote:

can anybody say when an ebola pt becomes contagious ???


eg

the experts and MSM keep repeating that unless your running a fever your not contagious

38.6 centigrade is the # used


so at noon I don't have a temp and am not contagious?

but at 1pm I spike a fever so presto chango now I can spread it ?

and I wasn't spreading it at noon or 11:30 ???


does that even make sense?

but that is what we are being told


sorry

I've got a good imagination

but it's not that damn good


something ain't right here

 
Really good point.  What's is the official temp have to be to be considered a fever?  My daughter's pediatrician won't consider anything under 100.4 a fever.  She's 10 so I'm sure he's different for infants or toddlers.  But what if your temp is 99... is that a fever?  Most people don't know what their baseline is, no one takes their temp when they aren't sick.
Back to Top
Prairie One View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: August 03 2014
Location: North America
Status: Offline
Points: 1920
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prairie One Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2014 at 9:36pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Kilt- You may be right or you maybe completely wrong about China, but on this subject I'm 100% in your corner! There has only been one (1) death from Ebola in the U.S. and it was an imported case! I'm considering buying stock in Reynold's Aluminum and Norcross hip waders! The misinformation and conspiracy theories are getting hip deep around here! Everyone needs to chill! Speculation and stories about suspected cases are not helpful!


I agree. I'm with you on this one Kilt.
Interested....
Back to Top
ParanoidMom View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 1665
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ParanoidMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2014 at 4:55am
Yep. One imported case and the entire event was handled like a monkey with a football.   Patient died. Exposure to paramedics and law enforcement, along with quite a few others. If we learn absolutely nothing else, we certainly now know we aren't nearly as prepared as a nation as we thought we were.
But the souls of the righteous are in the hand of the Lord
Wisdom of Solomon 3:1
Back to Top
Germ Nerdier View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group


Joined: September 20 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 3380
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2014 at 5:35am


Factors determining the altered spread (or not) of the virus are directly dependant on human activity. Will we contain it in W Africa? Will we see imports in other countries? That depends on us.

That it did not result in more Dallas cases after the screw ups, is due to human activity (interpersonal contacts, contact tracing and containment measures), and a lot of luck.

The virus is still contagious, still spreading, and still has a very high CFR. 
.....................................................................................................

You guys are entitled to opinions, but if I see another prejudicial comment about corpse-water drinking being presented as fact - I will delete it.






Back to Top
onefluover View Drop Down
Admin Advisor Group
Admin Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: April 21 2013
Location: Death Valleyish
Status: Offline
Points: 20151
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2014 at 6:03am
If the effected region goes total ebola then we can expect another 2,500 Duncans. If all of Africa goes Ebola then we can expect another 150,000. This of course is a very rudimentary calculation. It could be much lower or much higher but you get the picture. In any case there will be many more duncans to come.

The water comment was, uh, tasteless.
"And then there were none."
Back to Top
Kilt2 View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group
Avatar

Joined: December 17 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 7414
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2014 at 4:04pm
One person infected has infected one other.

Let us not get carried away - this virus is nowhere near as bad as Influenza.

They will screen people coming in from Africa and stop it in the US.

Flu is the one we should worry about.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
Back to Top
Germ Nerdier View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group


Joined: September 20 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 3380
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Germ Nerdier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2014 at 4:24pm
Kilt2,

One person infected is currently infecting 2 people, that is exponential.

Screening incoming flights involves temperature checks. Currently 80-90% infected have fevers. Those who do have fevers can take Tylenol.

I do not gamble. If I did, I'd be betting on Ebola.

That said, I am not a fear monger . I do believe the world can stop this... But the only way we're going to stop it is by facing the hard truths and using science to counter them. Downplaying the risk can only cause harm at this point.
Back to Top
wenmalon View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: October 19 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 91
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wenmalon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2014 at 4:27pm
I agree get a grip. Wow what a bunch of chicken littles. 

If you are going to post something make sure irs true. This is not a race to see who can have the most posts or the fastest to pst something new.

It was posted that Duncan was dead before he actually was. Isn't there a gate keeper here? Just one example.

The rate of people dying from heart disease in this country is exponentially higher than Ebola. Just sayin.

Being paranoid chicken littles is the last thing we need. People stopped listening to chicken little remember.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 7>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down