Get a Grip everyone

I've had disagreements with Kilt in the past and disagreed strongly with his world view but it this case he is spot on.
Everyone needs to take deep breath. This is NOT the big one.

You're looking for ghosts behind doors. This isn't the big one.

Just like the suspected cases, we do not know yet. 

So far ebola has been a big problem in West Africa only and just a tiny one elsewhere.  But, we do not know what it will do next.  It should be a flu that endangers the whole globe, but no one told ebola that and to date it has broken through all attempts to stop it.

So, just like the suspected cases we must wait and see.

It's the big one, Elizabeth!

GN- You are talking run of the mill flu, we're talking a novel pandemic flu and we can use the same argument! What does it have the potential to do? The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks!

arirish,

Who was talking novel pandemic flu? I was responding to comments like "flu kills X number per year, heart disease..." etc. in some members' arguments that more people die yearly than all of Ebola's victims to date.
My point was that those statistics are not a valid argument when discussing disease /endemic/pandemic potential.

Without a crystal ball we MUST look at potential, and at this time Ebola has more potential for fatalities and social disruption than a novel flu we are not currently dealing with.

We're you referring to a specific emerging novel flu?

https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrTcYHSIDxUxeIA7vaJzbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTIzZ2VrNTgzBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDaW1nBG9pZAMyZmY2NDg0MWE1NTczNmU5MmRlMWM5NjE5ZmE5ZGNhYwRncG9zAzI2BGl0A2Jpbmc-?back=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3F_adv_prop%3Dimage%26va%3Dslums%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bworld%26fr%3Dslv1-linksys%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D26&w=1024&h=768&imgurl=urbahead.files.wordpress.com%2F2011%2F05%2F54637141_ee0ec50f7c_b.jpeg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.skyscrapercity.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D1449843%26page%3D3&size=612.1KB&name=Worst+%3Cb%3Eslums%3C%2Fb%3E+in+America.....third+%3Cb%3Eworld%3C%2Fb%3E+or+western+%3Cb%3Eworld%3C%2Fb%3E%3F&p=slums+of+the+world&oid=2ff64841a55736e92de1c9619fa9dcac&fr2=&fr=slv1-linksys&tt=Worst+%3Cb%3Eslums%3C%2Fb%3E+in+America.....third+%3Cb%3Eworld%3C%2Fb%3E+or+western+%3Cb%3Eworld%3C%2Fb%3E%3F&b=0&ni=160&no=26&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=11tf8r5ao&sigb=13lria6ib&sigi=11vfkakv7&sigt=12dbgpv60&sign=12dbgpv60&.crumb=S35166jE90V&fr=slv1-linksys

How will it work here?

*ahem*  Ebola is already a historic outbreak, it is certainly a "big one." 

What has surprised me is how badly the western world has handled the couple of cases that have come their way. America devoted a whole 25 bed unit and 30 staff members to deal with one case and still someone else has caught it. What will happen if they get a handful of cases?

CRS, not if but when.

Good one, oneflu.  I would have posted that in a new thread so it doesn't get lost.  Several people have asked about where the waste is going.

My point is that we should have been able to stop it with ease.  It is not airborne and every outbreak before has only run (at worst) to a few hundred cases.

This time we failed to catch it. Then we failed to catch it once more.  Then we failed to catch it again.  We are still running to catch up.  We only get so many attempts then it is out of control.  I do not think this is the big one because of the contagiousness/lethality of the virus but the total incompetence of the people with the catcher's mits!

For a disease causing organism to erradicate a species it must not only be very lethal (check) but very contagious (sort of check) and be transmissable between both the at risk species and another in the same environment (check).  I don't see this as being a "Walking Dead" senario because we are the most adaptable vertibrate on the planet.  But I do see slowly escalating problems which will eventually errode our societies.  If we continue to drop the ball.   Though we are running out of chances this is still not certain, only possible.

Willoby brat says:

Worst case senario (still avoidable) it could reduce the population of the world to 10% of what it is now.  This will be due to the overwhelming breakdown of the professional people who insure everything from healthcare to corpse disposal and maintenance of essential services. 

When enough people are dead, as in the black death, the bodies can not be disposed of quick enough, therefore they decompose and cause further health problems by organic leeching into water supplies, sewerage and drainage systems.  Contamination of sewerage leads to further expansion of the effective active arena of the disease by allowing other unrelated diseases (dysentery, cholera, typhus etc.) to flourish.  Vermin, such as most members of the rodent population eat putrefying flesh, as do many mammal interractive disease vectors such as cockroaches flies etc.. 

As we, as a species, are reliant on our technology, hence our species name homo sapiens sapiens, is recognised as var-technologicus by anthropologists, you will appreciate that a small number of our species specialise in each branch of necessary technology, ie. medicine, food production, energy supplies, transport, defence, population control (police) and each of those professions are subdivided into many specialised units. 

If you take away by disease any single section of our society the whole society will collapse, like a row of dominoes.  If this occurs you can do the maths and work out just how many of the ebola survivors would survive the ensuing crash of civilisation.  I have done the mathematics and the research and can assure you, if the rate of atrition at present occuring due to ebola continues unabated, that alone would wipe out 50% of our planetary population by early 2016.

If, perchance, this virus mutates to the point where it is 100% lethal (highly unlikely but possible), by July 2016  it could kill 9.5 billion people.  As our global population is 7.5 billion that result is obvious.  It is an irony that the animal population of the planet is undergoing an ELE event at this moment.

All of this is, admitedly, conjecture but ebola keeps on surprising us.

Best case senario: "Our boys could be home for Christmas."

Its big for Africa because of the poverty and lifestyle of the people there and the overcrowding.

Civilisation is a thin veneer.

One useful thing for all of us here - and I am sure you will agree:

Germ Nerdier wrote: Kilt, Spanish flu first wave was only 1.8 Regardless, I have warned you to stop claiming people are drinking washing water off corpses. I am going to edit that out of your posts. Do it again and I will delete your entire post.

Here Germ Nerd

WOW ... Really?

Your credible source is a comments section on an opinion blog, under the heading "Nigg*rs"??

Mind boggling.

Germ Nerdier wrote: WOW ... Really? Your credible source is a comments section on an opinion blog, under the heading "Nigg*rs"?? Mind boggling.

One country, unequal rights, harmful practices ...

Govt should assist widows – Prof. Onadeko | Daily Newswatch

www.mydailynewswatchng.com/govt-assist-widows-prof-onadeko/

Apr 8, 2014 - ... dies, the widow would be made to drink the water used in washing the corpse. ..... How Nigeria used Android App, Facebook to fight Ebola ...

Why did you focus on UCH/College of Medicine and not other institutions?

God instructed me to start from my place of work. Afterwards, I can launch the foundation in other institutions so that they can replicate this idea too. We want to go beyond this confine; therefore, we are trying to implore the government to come to the aid of widows. The plight of widows is dreadful; the way widows are treated in our communities is really bad. In some ethnic groups, when the husband dies, the widow would be made to drink the water used in washing the corpse. The reason for doing this is that she can confess if she killed her husband. Also in some ethnic group, they would cut the hair of the widow and make her sleep on the bare floor for forty days and she would be served unpalatable meals, all their belongings would be carted away by the family members of the husband. Therefore, I’m pleading to the government to come to the aid of the widows by offering scholarships to the children of widows and by providing a low housing scheme for widows to alleviate their sufferings and what they go through in the hands of their landlords. They should also be given tax relief in their place of work by giving them some waiver so that they are not taxed heavily. More so, there should be job opportunity  for the children of the widows because many widows struggled to send their children to school.

Albert I told the truth - Ebola spreads because of African practices such as when someone dies they wash the body and drink the water.

Well they don't drink the water running off the dead bodies per say lol, but yes there are probably dead bodies in the rivers and in their drinking water.    It's the way 3rd world's operate, and this region of W Africa is the slums of all 3rd worlds.   You should look into Asia and China, but I won't go down that road.  Something like 20,000 dead pigs in their river?