WHO: Warns H2H mutation "not far away"

Here come the Olympics. I keep screaming it. Nobody listening. Will be the event that puts the final nail in the coffin of spread to every point on earth.

Notice how things piked up after haj pilgrims returned home?

Now China firing off again with New Years travel.

 Well wait till after Olympics. Two weeks after Olympics over the pandemic really begins.

I hold events and do promotions for part of my lively hood. My gut tells me Olympics. Greece outbreak next door. Arriving just in time.

Hi everyone...  My wife Elisa and I are new to the group and very aware of the dangers of this of all this...  We are glad that we can get the latest information from this forum....  We have a question has anyone ever seen a computer generated model of how fast a flu pandemic would spread around the world?  Is there such a thing or has anyone ever done one?  I know there has to be one someplace...  Let us know please.

Thanks

Corn,

I agree with you. The Olympics could be the incubator that spreads the germs back to the world.

Nick&Elisa wrote: Hi everyone...  My wife Elisa and I are new to the group and very aware of the dangers of this of all this...  We are glad that we can get the latest information from this forum....  We have a question has anyone ever seen a computer generated model of how fast a flu pandemic would spread around the world?  Is there such a thing or has anyone ever done one?  I know there has to be one someplace...  Let us know please.

Nick,

I read recently that the rocket scientists at Los Alamos National Labs ran a simulation on their supercomputer.  Their best guess is first cases to full-blown epidemic in 2-3 weeks.

On a more mundane level, just for kicks, I wrote a very simplistic simulation of my own.  It assumed that a person would go from infected on day 1, becomming contagious on day 3, and isolated (bedridden, hospitalized or dead) on day 6.  It assumed that each person would pass the illness to 3 other people each day they were contagious, so 9 people alltogether.  This would not consider every person they infected while bedridden for simplicity's sake.  I think these were reasonable estimates, and some would criticize them as too conservative. 

It took 21 days to go from "patient 0" to nearly 15 million infected using these parameters.

Ah! Here's the link to the Los Alamos Supercomputer Infuenza Simulation:

"So Germann set to work creating flu scenarios to augment Longini's NIH work. With nearly 300 million agents representing every man, woman, and child in the US, EpiCast doesn't bother to track minute-by-minute behaviors as EpiSims does. Instead, Germann puts his computing power to work detailing how slightly different parameters - various antivirals or different isolation policies, for instance - have slightly different national repercussions. So far, the project has run about 200 simulations of an avian flu epidemic, models that have helped Longini's group reach provocative conclusions that fall along two lines: how a nationwide outbreak might take hold, and what policies would best combat it.

EpiCast reveals that, in contrast with flu epidemics of decades past, an outbreak today won't progress "like a wave across the country," spreading from town to town and state to state. Instead, no matter where it erupts - Seattle, Chicago, Miami - it will swiftly blanket the nation. "It starts in Chicago one day," Germann says, "and a couple of weeks later it's everywhere at once." Thank the airlines. Even though disease has piggybacked on air travel for decades, we generally had only isolated outbreaks of low-transmission viruses - like when SARS leapt from Hong Kong to Canada in 2003 but failed to spread beyond Toronto. In an epidemic of a highly communicable disease, the airlines' hub network would effectively seed every metropolitan area in the country within a month or two - and then reseed them, repeatedly."

Hi everyone,

Greetings from your newest member from Australia.

Absolutely thrilled to find such an informative site with intelligent input from all VIP Members, Moderators especially Rick, SophiaZoe and great to have input from the Dr Niman. --- Keep it going, great job.

Being watching BF and developments since Sept 2005 --- It's a cunning virus, slowly spreading throughtout Asia, Europe and now Africa - Mutating as it goes....

I voted 4 on WHO status --- About time WHO at WHO got their act together.

Anyhow, whilst my friends in the CANADA and USA sleep yours truly can contribute input from a different time zone.

Regards to all

Good Day Bruss01,

Thank you for your insite and link.  My Wife and I felt that the numbers would be something like this. 

Thanks again.....