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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

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    Posted: July 26 2008 at 11:38pm
I have been reading about how bad the Flu season is in the Southern Hemisphere.

Please help me understand what this means.

1. Will our flu season be worse this winter in the Northern Hemisphere?

2. Does it mean the bird flu is getting closer to H2H.

3. Are we getting weaker and more susceptible to flu virus.

4. Are more people not getting flu shots so more are getting sick.

5. Does this mean something else?

Let's face it the vaccine missed the mark with the shot last year. I was lucky and did not get the flu but many at my school did get really sick.

Am I missing something here? Why are people concerned about the flu in the Southern Hemisphere.

Thanks for answers in advance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2008 at 7:34am
Hi Flu Mom,
As usual you ask the best questions. I sure cannot answer them, but I have a few articles that have helped me: Here are my opinionated answers, I am in the same learning boat also.
 
I understand that viral activity such as the flu can sometimes be predicted and even tracked geographically. In North America, most cases occur between November and March. In the Southern hemisphere, winter occurs at the same time as summer in the Northern hemisphere. Southern hemisphere countries, such as Australia, the flu season is April through September.
 
1. Will our flu season be worse this winter in the Northern Hemisphere? Yes, very well could be a different flu virus as the flu is different in each hemisphere. Since the Northern and Southern Hemisphere have winter at different times of the year, there are actually two flu seasons each year and two vaccine formlations every year; one for the Northern, and one for the Southern Hemisphere. http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Flu-season
 
This year all three components of the flu inoculation are being changed in hopes of a better vaccine. Last years mix was NOT a match for the flu type that arrived. "There are a number of factors that determine whether you will have a good, medium, or bad flu year, and clearly a major factor is whether the predominant strain happens to be the same as the one the previous year,'' said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
 
2. Does it mean the bird flu is getting closer to H2H. No! But, there's the possibility that the strains are changing.

3. Are we getting weaker and more susceptible to flu virus. No. Last years mix was bad. 19 out of 26 years have been good flu inoculations, last year was a miss.
http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2008/02/15/who-vaccines.html ...The B strain and the H3N2 strain in the 2007-08 vaccine aren't well matched to the predominant circulating viruses...

An alternative to shots is a nasal spray known as FluMist. It has been recommended for people age 5 to 49 who are not pregnant. The Food and Drug Administration expanded the approved use to include healthy children age 2 to 4 who do not have a history of wheezing. FluMist does not contain thimerosal, no mercury in the spray.

4. Are more people not getting flu shots so more are getting sick?No. Everything is normal. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/  No one can predict when the flu season will take off, but it can begin as early as October and last as late as May. It takes about two weeks after an immunization for enough antibodies to develop to protect against the virus.
 
5. Why are people concerned about the flu in the Southern Hemisphere?  What happens in the Southern Hemisphere can provide clues. The Southern Hemisphere has its winter, and thus its flu season, during our summer. American manufacturers need a 9-month lead to produce flu vaccine, because flu strains change from one year to the next. That requires flu forecasters to predict in February what the prevailing flu strain will be November.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2008 at 7:34am

http://www.flu.lanl.gov/vaccine/

Northern and Southern Hemisphere Vaccine Strain Selections by Season

Northern Hemisphere vaccine strain selections, 2008-9

Recommended:


An A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)-like virus;
  • A/Brisbane/59/2007
HA: ISDN282676, ISDN285777
NA: ISDN285099, ISDN285100
  • A/South Dakota/06/2007
HA: ISDN276584, ISDN285779,
NA: ISDN282221, ISDN285780,

An A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like virus;
  • A/Brisbane/10/2007
HA: GenBank EU199248 EU199250 EU199366
NA: GenBank EU199249 EU199420
  • A/Uruguay/716/2007
HA: ISDN276547, ISDN283237, ISDN283241,
NA: ISDN276559, ISDN283261, ISDN283266,

a B/Florida/4/2006-like virus;
  • B/Florida/4/2006
HA: ISDN261649, ISDN285778, GenBank EU100604
NA: ISDN261650, EU100661
  • B/Brisbane/3/2007
HA: ISDN256628, ISDN263782, ISDN263783,
NA: ISDN263784, ISDN263785,

A service provided on behalf of the Influenza Branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Note: Some of these sequences have not been published.

Instructions are given on each entry for how to correctly acknowledge their source.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2008 at 7:55am

2007-2008 Influenza Season Week 20, ending May 17, 2008

(All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.) http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Synopsis: During week 20 (May 11 - 17, 2008), influenza activity continued to decrease in the United States

  • Twenty-one (1.9%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories were positive for influenza.
  • The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza has been above the epidemic threshold for 19 consecutive weeks.
  • The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) was below national and region-specific baseline levels.
  • 23 states reported sporadic influenza activity; 26 states and the District of Columbia reported no influenza activity; and one state did not report.

Composition of the 2008-09 Influenza Vaccine:

WHO and FDA have recommended that the 2008-09 trivalent influenza vaccine for the Northern Hemisphere contain A/Brisbane/59/2007-like (H1N1), A/Brisbane/10/2007-like (H3N2), and B/Florida/4/2006-like viruses.

All three components have been changed from the 2007-08 Northern Hemisphere vaccine formulation. A/Brisbane/10/2007-like (H3N2) and B/Florida/4/2006-like viruses are currently included in the 2008 Southern Hemisphere vaccines.
 
This recommendation was based on surveillance data related to epidemiology and antigenic characteristics, serological responses to 2007-08 vaccines, and the availability of candidate strains and reagents.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2008 at 11:55am
Annie, THANK YOU! You answered all my questions with excellent research and all easy to understand.   
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