Swine flu could infect 2 million Scots

The deadly swine flu virus could infect up to 40% of the UK population in the next six months if the outbreak becomes a pandemic, world health officials said today.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the World Health Organisation (WHO) taskforce which decided to raise its alert over the virus to level four last night, said four in 10 people could be infected if the country is hit by a pandemic.

But Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain was "among the best prepared countries in the world" and added that the Government was taking "all the urgent action that is necessary" to help prevent the spread of the virus.

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Mr Brown also said he will take part in a meeting of the Government's Cobra emergencies committee this morning.

Earlier, Britons were warned to avoid all but essential travel to Mexico as the WHO said the deadly swine flu virus can no longer be contained and raised its alert to two lower than the maximum of six, signifying a "significant increase in risk of a pandemic".

Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, said cases were likely to die down within a matter of weeks because the UK was moving out of the normal season for flu infection, but may flare up again once the summer was over.

He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "We don't really know what size epidemic we will get over the next couple of months. It is almost certain that, even if it does fade away in the next few weeks - which it might - we will get a seasonal epidemic in the autumn.

"We might expect up to 30%-40% of the population to become ill in the next six months if this truly turns into a pandemic."

The first two British cases were confirmed yesterday and more suspected infections emerged last night.

The Foreign Office said: "We are now advising against all but essential travel to Mexico."

It added that British nationals "resident in or visiting Mexico may wish to consider whether they should remain in Mexico at this time".

The two confirmed patients, Iain and Dawn Askham, of Polmont, near Falkirk, had been on honeymoon in Mexico and were being treated today in isolation at Monklands Hospital in Airdrie, Lanarkshire.

Scottish Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said they had tested positive and seven of 22 people who had been in "close contact" with the couple were showing "mild symptoms".

She told BBC Radio Scotland these including workmates and added: "We remain very vigilant."

"At the moment we have no evidence that the virus is in the wider community, although people will understand I obviously can't rule that out," she said.

"I would say in terms of reassurance that the one thing everyone in the international community is taking encouragement from is that, outside of Mexico, everybody contracting this virus is displaying very mild symptoms."

She added that the two infected individuals were responding well to anti-viral drugs.

UK holiday company Thomson said it was cancelling two outbound flights from the UK to the Mexican resort of Cancun today and repatriating holidaymakers already in Mexico.

The flights to Cancun had been due to leave from Manchester at 9.30am and from Gatwick at 9.15am.

Thomson said it was now making arrangements to get clients home from Mexico and that repatriation flights were expected to start today.

The company said: "While we do appreciate that the new news may be a great disappointment to customers, we hope they will also understand that their health and safety is of paramount importance to us."

It added that flights due to operate to Mexico from tomorrow onwards were under discussion and decisions would be made later today.

o far 152 people are thought to have been killed in Mexico by the virus, which is caused when the H1N1 strain associated with pigs crosses over to the human population.

Outbreaks have also been confirmed in the United States, Canada and Spain.

Suspected cases from New Zealand to Israel were raising concern that the new virus was spreading rapidly.

It was also confirmed that four people in the Republic of Ireland were being tested.

The Health Service Executive (HSE) in Dublin said the results of those tests were expected today.

A passenger on an incoming flight from Mexico was treated by medics at Manchester Airport this morning, but later sent home, the Health Protection Agency said.

WHO's assistant director-general, Keiji Fukuda, said "at this time containment is not a feasible option" as the virus has already spread to several other countries.

He added: "At this time, instituting travel bans would really not be very effective as the virus has already spread to several other countries."

Commenting on the raising of the WHO's alert level to four, he said: "What this can really be interpreted as is a significant step towards pandemic influenza. But also, it is a phase that says we are not there yet.

"In other words, at this time we think we have taken a step in that direction, but a pandemic is not considered inevitable."

Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, the Government's Chief Medical Adviser, said: "The WHO has changed the alert to stage four. This means there are small clusters of outbreaks with limited person-to-person transmission.

"From some affected areas, it appears that early doses of anti-virals such as Tamiflu are helping people to recover."

He said there were enough anti-virals to treat "half the population" if they became ill.

"We have been preparing for the possibility for a number of years and are among the most prepared countries in the world," he said.

Dr Maureen Baker, the honorary secretary of the Royal College of GPs, said family doctors should reassure patients that they can expect to recover from flu within a week - even if it is swine flu.

Dr Baker told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "GPs should be saying to people not to panic, that we are well prepared and that most people who get ill with flu will have a nasty bout of flu and get better within a week, even if it is swine flu."

In the US, the number of cases rose to 50, the result of further testing at a New York City school, although none was fatal. Other US cases have been reported in Ohio, Kansas, Texas and California. Six cases were confirmed in Canada and a further one in Spain.

Mexican health secretary Jose Angel Cordova said the epidemic was entering an extremely dangerous phase, with the number of people infected mushrooming even as authorities were improving defences.

Passengers on the first flight back from Mexico to the Midlands since the outbreak said they received little information about the situation.

Chris Giddings, from Peterborough, returned from a one-week stay in Cancun to Birmingham Airport this morning with his son Oakley.

He said they had no special treatment during the trip.

Mr Giddings said: "You just had to wash your hands. Nobody really said a lot about it in the hotel.

"We didn't think it was as bad as it is."

Reacting to the news that the Scottish couple feared to have contracted the disease were staying in Cancun, Mr Giddings said: "It does worry me a little bit, yeah, with having a little one.

"I will be a bit annoyed if I have got it. As long as I don't get it, I will be all right. It's a bit annoying, isn't it?"

Another couple on the same flight to Birmingham said they had not been told much either.

They said: "Nobody told us anything other than to wash our hands on the aeroplane before and after we used the lavatory, which is a bit surprising, don't you think?

"We heard on Sunday morning on the news... other than that, we never heard anything else.

"It was a bit scary, we haven't had any precautions.

"We are a long way from Mexico, aren't we, so there wasn't any panic. Nobody seems to be bothered about Cancun.

"We were very concerned coming back into the country.

"We have got two grandchildren and David has got a very elderly mother and we are very concerned that people will alienate us.

"Do we go and see them, or are they going to say you stay away, you've been to Mexico'?"

Another man on the flight said: "We were thinking about staying in the hotel room to start... we are just coming home today so we're just glad to be home."

He added that a couple of people had masks on in Cancun Airport but not on the plane.

Another woman, who was travelling with her young son, said she was not too concerned.

She said: "To my knowledge, I don't think we have been exposed to anything.

"I have heard there are people who have been infected in Mexico City but we have been in Cancun.

"We have had no sleep since yesterday evening so I guess the first plan of action is to go home and actually get some sleep and then find out."