Some of this data is dated but remains accurate and perhaps this is time to increase our vigilance as the CDC map of the spread of flu through the U.S. is 5 days overdue and the last map showed it had spread to all but 3 states in the U.S. The last video has precise quotes from CDC documents on the plan that will be used to triage and implement health care this fall, if we have a functioning health care system, which is yet to be seen.

http://www.today.com/video/today/12418143/#12418143

It will take more than 6 months to develop a vaccine, if one can be developed.

The last Pandemic announcement in China, which I was cyber present at and live, was on April 29, 2009 and by Dr. Margaret Chan of WHO.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html

CDC: 'Fall 2013 H7N9 Outbreak Will Overwhelm US Health Care

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhcMjOl6zco

This is a long video - 22 minutes. POTRblog

more to be posted

Medclinician

jacksdad wrote: Individually, some of us may be ready. But as a nation, or even as a species? No way, no how. A major one in today's society would be an event so profound that it would redefine everything as either being "before the pandemic" or "after the pandemic".

I believe you are absolutely right. The 1918 pandemic was almost an extension of WWI and people were very used to reading lists of the dead and seeing friends and neighbors names listed there. I don't think most people would handle it well today.

jacksdad, You are so right we are in deep doo doo. I have put in plenty of wood to keep my house warm. If I have to I will move it indoors to protect it.   It will be needed by many if TSHTF.

Elver, while it's true that good face masks will protect you from the virus, I consider the actual disease event to be a fairly short term threat - I firmly believe that a major pandemic unleashed on today's world has the potential to knock society back to a pre-industrial state and that's what worries me more. Pandemics have traditionally appeared in waves, but after the end of the last wave (the second or third typically) most of the susceptible hosts are either dead or immune and the danger of infection passes, and while a virus can mutate and return in a form that's sufficiently different that it can once again cause significant illness (as H1N1 has), I don't personally worry about one with a really high fatality rate coming back. It's society's reaction - or inability to react - to the aftermath of a major pandemic strain that I prep for as much as anything. When the food and water run out and the lights don't come on at the flick of a switch, then we get to see just how civilized we really are.

As a point of reference, I don't consider minor pandemics like the ones that occurred in 1957, 1968 and 2009 to be a threat - my biggest fear is an event like Spanish Flu or worse. Prepping far beyond the 72 hours that most authorities recommend is what gets you through the extended period of unrest that would follow the worst pandemic wave, and hopefully compensates well enough for the long term shortages of food and clean water, the loss of rule of law, no access to healthcare, etc, and keeps you and your loved ones alive and healthy.

When I started prepping, I found a couple of articles that really hit home and made me think not only about dealing with the virus at the time, but also about preparing for the extended societal hits we'd take after the fact with respect to various key infrastructures failing and essential services being severely impacted. Dated as they are, the two I'd recommend are by Dr Grattan Woodson, and a guy who goes by the name of Dr. Dave. Here are a couple of links, but if they don't work you can search for both of them by name. They reference H5N1 specifically (which was getting everyone's panties in a bunch about the time both were written) but they apply to any pandemic, and indeed any major disaster - Dr. Dave's article actually details how to prep for six months.

http://www.fluwiki.info/uploads/Consequences/NewGuideOct7b.pdf

http://www.urbanprepping.com/download/Food%20Storage/Becoming_Self-Sufficient_for_Six_Months.pdf

You're absolutely right, Seawolfe - Spanish Flu was different from Asian and Hong Kong flu in having three waves instead of two, although in every case the second was the worst. It's good to hear that FEMA's being realistic and thinking about absenteeism rates that high. Do they envision anything happening beyond the six week period, or they assuming everything will go back to normal pretty quickly?

jacksdad wrote: You're absolutely right, Seawolfe - Spanish Flu was different from Asian and Hong Kong flu in having three waves instead of two, although in every case the second was the worst. It's good to hear that FEMA's being realistic and thinking about absenteeism rates that high. Do they envision anything happening beyond the six week period, or they assuming everything will go back to normal pretty quickly?

  Jacksdad - - The FEMA courses make the point that the pandemic will not end the human race and that there will be something to come back to.  That's the reason for the need for proper planing for Continuity of Operations (COOP).  Everyone can see and take the FEMA courses by searching on "FEMA Courses" and then checking out course 520 - Continuity of Ops Planning for Pandemic Influenzas and course 522 - Exercising Continuity Plans for Pandemics.  Lots of other courses on the list