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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

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cobber View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 01 2014 at 6:01am
Regarding H1N1.

I've been on this site for a while. We had a big dummy spit at the Chinese for not being forth coming with info on SARS and then Saudis about MERS. I now get the distinct impression we are being kept in the dark by the American authorities on H1N1.... 

I have seen bugger all information!!!  What the hell is going on?

Is it just Christmas and everyone is full of turkey and Christmas pudding???

Also The World Health Organisation and CDC have been deftly silent too. They don't seem to have it on their radar..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2014 at 10:54am

Houston confirms season's first pediatric flu death

The Houston Health Department on Thursday confirmed the first pediatric flu death in the Houston area this season.

Kathy Barton, a spokeswoman for the department, would identify the victim only as a teenager. She said the victim is believed to have been infected with H1N1, the most predominant flu strain this season.

The death occurred sometime within the season that began on Oct. 1. At least three previous flu-related deaths in the Houston area have been confirmed this season, and the pediatric death is the only confirmed fatality within the city.

Official figures on flu deaths are not available because doctors are not required to report suspected adult flu deaths for testing and confirmation.

In a Dec. 20 report, the Texas Department of Health Services said flu-like illnesses were increasing around the state and were above typical levels.

"All Texas regions have reported laboratory-confirmed influenza, and the percentage of specimens positive for influenza is over 10 percent," the report said.



"Official figures on flu deaths are not available because doctors are not required to report suspected adult flu deaths for testing and confirmation."

Until this changes we will never have the information and data needed. This is why the CDC underestimated the number of deaths in 2009.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2014 at 1:23pm
Check out these stats!  Looks like a micro-pand.

More deaths, cases of swine flu in 2013; virus still prevalent
Umesh Isalkar, TNN Dec 29, 2013, 01.16AM IST


Tags:
World Health Organisation|Swine flu|Pune Municipal Corporation|H1N1 virus
PUNE: Experts may suggest that the H1N1 virus has become endemic, but the infection has emerged as the biggest killer in the state this year ahead of dengue.

The mortality (death) rate of swine flu infection has gone up from 8% in 2012 to 23% this year. In 2013, 643 people contracted the infection and 149 died. In 2012, 1,551 people were infected and 135 people died. Dengue claimed 89 lives in the state till November while 29 deaths were attributed to malaria (till August).



making for a mortality rate of 23% which is far too high when compared with last year when the death rate of the virus was 8%. The swine flu virus had infected 1,551 people and claimed 135 deaths in Maharashtra in 2012.

Although experts have concluded that the virus has become endemic and minor seasonal transmission will continue to be reported, the scene closer home shows that the virus has emerged as the biggest killer in the state this year claiming more lives than the deaths caused by dengue and malaria put together.

Statistics reveal that the virus is now spreading faster in state's rural interiors as against cities that have been the target so far. "Seventy-five swine flu deaths were reported from rural parts and 74 from urban areas this year till December 24. This shows that the virus has become equally entrenched in cities and villages. Cases will, therefore, keep surfacing. People must continue to take precautions," said a surveillance officer from the state public health department.

Infectious diseases expert Bharat Purandare said the behavioural pattern in influenza viruses needs to be tracked closely. "So far, the population in cities was most exposed to the virus resulting in development of herd immunity among the urban populace. Hence, the virus is now covering the virgin rural population."

Paediatrician Sharad Agarkhedkar, former president of Indian Medical Association, Pune chapter, said, "The virus has not gone away. It has just taken on the behaviour of a seasonal virus and will continue to circulate in the air. About 20% to 40% of the population in some areas has been infected and thereby they have some immunity, but vulnerable sections should be on guard."

The H1N1 virus's frequency of causing infection is being closely monitored by scientists at the Pune-based National Institute of Virology (NIV). "The rate of swine flu infection has come down. However, it is imperative to continue monitoring the genetic make up of the H1N1 virus to understand its adaptability and evolutionary dynamics," said senior scientist Mandeep Chadha, who heads the influenza virus research at NIV.

"We continue to track influenza activity based on a number of indicators, including the percentage of people and the number of people testing positive for H1N1, and reported hospitalisation with influenza-like illness," Chadha said.

The NIV had advised people to stay alert and take precautionary measures to ward off swine flu as the H1N1 infection rate had gone up considerably in July this year. In fact, the infection rate had touched 13% in July as against 1.1% in June. This means, of the total suspected H1N1 patients, 13% tested positive during this period. "Now, the infection rate is almost zero," Chadha added.

With 275 positive cases and 46 deaths, Pune city has once again recorded the highest prevalence rate in the state so far. However, officials claim that most people who died in Pune were from adjoining rural areas who had come to Pune to seek better treatment.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 4:41am
Maybe i should have been more specific. There is heaps of information on H1N1 deaths in various locations, but no real detail. 

The important information on which strain killed who is missing. 

I recall the D255G strain killed some in Texas, but since then no information.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 7:30am

Cobber: Most States don't test adult deaths because they're not required to and don't have the money to. My mother died in '09 during the peak of the flu season. I know it was H1N1 because of her symptoms but the doctor at her assisted living facillity put pneumonia on the death certificate. There was no test. The D255G was found in Texas because at the time those people died of an UNKNOWN disease.That's the only reason they were tested. Until testing is required we will never have enough information!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 9:38pm
This is a concern. There could be two strains going around both H1N1, but one which is a pussycat and the other a tiger. 

I thought the US was on top of this sort of thing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 7:48am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

This is a concern. There could be two strains going around both H1N1, but one which is a pussycat and the other a tiger. 

I thought the US was on top of this sort of thing.



I've been wondering about this for some time! Are there two strains? Or, is there only one and some people are just more genetically prone to cytokine storms? If the later it would explain alot!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 1:08pm
arirish,generally speaking,the younger some one is,the healthier their immune system is. The healthier their immune system is the more like that they will have a cytokine storm,strong enough for their own immune system to kill them.Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 6:59pm

Johnray1, Thanks for your answer! The reason I asked the question is I remember reading an article some time ago about defective T-cells causing cytokine storms. I'm basically self educated when it comes to epidemiology and so some if not a lot is over my head! I'll try to find the article again and post.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Seawolfe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 7:22pm
Local news finally reported on the"flu" tonight. Here in Brevard County, Florida (City of Melbourne) three people are in hospital with the flu. Point was made that stats are not maintained so numbers of cases were not reported.
One case is interesting. A pregnant lady refused the flu shot and then came down with the flu. She gave birth while she had the flu. She is one of the three cases and is now in critical condition.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 8:14pm
Johnray1- It took me a while but here's the article I mentioned.


New Insights Into Immunological Perfect Storms

A strong immune system is a good thing, but too much of a good thing may not be so good after all. Sometimes, the immune system may overreact when it encounters new or particularly pathogenic agents - such as the viruses that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong, or, more recently, the 2009 swine flu pandemic. When the immune system encounters such agents, its normal cytokine activation feedback loop may be severely disrupted, producing a "cytokine storm" that leads to overwhelming and sometimes fatal inflammation and multi-organ failure. While some cytokine storms have known causes, others are triggered for no apparent reason. Recently, a research team led by Dr. Edward Behrens at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and Dr. Gary Koretzky of the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, reported that one of the underlying triggers may be the repeated stimulation of toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) (Behrens et al. 2011). The research may lead to the development of new therapies for inflammatory diseases characterized by chronic innate immune activation in the absence of genetic cytotoxic T cell defects.
Cytokine storms

Cytokine storms are caused by a number of underlying triggers, but each trigger has similar outcomes, including elevated cytokine levels, hemophagocytosis (phagocytosis of RBCs, WBCs, and platelets by macrophages), multi-organ failure, and sometimes death. Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) and macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) are two related diseases characterized by cytokine storms. In both, the elevated cytokine is primarily interferon gamma (IFNG). Generally, in humans and animal models, the elevated IFNG levels result from the inability of defective CD8+ T cells to clear a pathogen. However, HLH and MAS cytokine storms occasionally occur in the absence of defective CD8+ T cells, a pathogen, or other triggers. Behrens, Koretzky, and their colleagues sought to identify these triggers.
TLR9 stimulation induces MAS-like syndrome in mice

The Behrens/Koretzky team was aware of studies implicating TLRs in cytokine storm diseases. In particular, one study reported that repeated stimulation of TLR9 with CpG DNA produces systemic toxicity. To determine if repeated TLR9 stimulation could produce a cytokine storm in the absence of antigen, the researchers repeatedly stimulated C57BL/6J mice (B6J, 000664) with CpG. They found that these mice develop an MAS-like syndrome that includes leukopenia, splenomegaly, elevated serum ferritin, liver disease, disrupted bone marrow architecture, and elevated IFNG, IL12p70, IL6, and IL10 levels. Attempts to produce the same effects in either Tlr9-deficient or Ifng-deficient – B6.129S7-Ifngr1tm1Agt/J (003288) – mice failed, indicating that the CpG-induced MAS-like disease in their model is mediated through TLR9 stimulation and is at least partly caused by elevated IFNG levels.
lab mouse 003288
B6.129S7-Ifngr1tm1Agt/J mice are Ifng-deficient and do not develop CpG-induced MAS.
Lymphocytes and other cells are the IFNG producers

To identify the immune cells responsible for producing the excess IFNG, the researchers examined the CpG-induced MAS response in several immunodeficient mouse models. They observed the following:

    CpG treatment induces MAS but only minimally activates CD8+ T cells in B6J mice
    B6.129P2-B2mtm1Unc/J (002087) mice, which are deficient in both CD8+ T and NKT cells, develop a CpG-induced MAS similar to that of control B6J mice
    CpG-treated C57BL/6-Rag2tm1Cgn/J mice (008309), which lack B and T cells, develop a similar CpG-induced MAS
    CpG-treated NK-depleted B6J mice also develop a similar MAS
    CpG-treated mice deficient for both Rag2 and Il2rg (and which therefore lack B, T, NKT, and NK cells) develop severe hepatitis, but an attenuated CpG-induced MAS

To the researchers, these results suggested that though both NK cells and T and/or B cells play a role in IFNG production and maximum CpG-induced MAS, non-lymphocyte cells also play a key role.
Liver and spleen cendritic cells also produce IFNG

To determine which non-lymphocyte cells produce IFNG in CpG-induced MAS, the researchers used a Yeti IFNG reporter mouse. IFNG-producing cells in this mouse can be identified because they express yellow florescent protein. The researchers found that one CpG treatment in these mice induces a small increase in IFNG production in two subpopulations of liver dendritic cells (DCs): conventional DCs (cDCs) and plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs). However, repeated CpG treatments induce a dramatic increase in IFNG production in both DC subpopulations – not in the liver but in the spleen. To determine the relative IFNG contributions of the two DC subpopulations, the researchers analyzed IFNG production and MAS severity in cDC-depleted mice. To produce mice with long-term cDC depletion, they transferred bone marrow from diphtheria toxin-treated B6.FVB-Tg(Itgax-DTR/EGFP)57Lan/J mice (004509) (the toxin deletes cDCs – but not pDCs – in these mice) to B6J mice. They found that though the cDC-depleted B6J mice produce no IFNG after one CpG injection, they do produce it – and develop cytopenia, splenomegaly, and hepatitis – after repeated injections. This indicated that though cDCs are responsible for the initial INFG production, they are not needed to produce the later-phase INFG and to precipitate MAS disease.
IL10 mitigates CpG-induced MAS

In the course of their study, the researchers had observed that the CpG-induced MAS in their model is relatively mild and accompanied by considerably elevated levels of IL10, a recognized anti-inflammatory cytokine. So, they examined IL10 production in CpG-treated Ifng-deficient mice and found that these mice produce much less IL10 than controls. To determine if lymphocytes produce the IL10, the researchers examined IL10 levels in CpG-treated Rag2-deficient mice. They found that, in addition to having very low IL10 levels, these mice develop severe liver damage, suggesting that the absence of lymphocytes (and the IL10 they produce) exacerbates CpG-induced MAS. The researchers further investigated the role of IL10 by treating B6J mice with both CpG and an IL10 blocker. They found that these mice develop a more severe MAS than B6J mice treated with only CpG, indicating that IL10 considerably ameliorates CpG-induced MAS.

In summary, cytokine storms are characterized by elevated cytokine levels, hemophagocytosis, multi-organ failure, and they are sometimes fatal. They can be caused by defective antigen-specific responses of either B or T cells, by non-antigen-specific inflammation from pattern recognition receptors (including TLRs), or by unknown triggers. Behrens, Koretzky. and their colleagues demonstrated that the CpG-induced MAS-like cytokine storm in their model is due to excess IFNG production caused by repeated TLR9 stimulation, does not require exogenous antigen, and is ameliorated by IL10. Their findings may lead to the development of new therapeutic targets for cytokine storms that occur in the absence of genetic defects in cytotoxic T cells.

http://jaxmice.jax.org/news/2011/Cytokine_Storms.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2014 at 8:31pm
arirish,this is a good article,but what it really means is that more research is needed and I agree that more research is. What they have found is great,but it is not a total answer. Let them continue their work,they will probably find a final answer ,if there is one. Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2014 at 6:09pm
Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:


The mortality (death) rate of swine flu infection has gone up from 8% in 2012 to 23% this year. In 2013, 643 people contracted the infection and 149 died. In 2012, 1,551 people were infected and 135 people died.


I do not believe that the mortality rate of the H1N1 flu is 23%. No way! Of the people who were hospitalized I might believe that figure, but the problem is that most people don't go to the hospital or even to the doctor when they have the flu because they simply feel too crappy to go anywhere.

I have never, ever, ever gone to the doctor for any cold or flu in my entire life. There is no way to accurately count a mortality rate when most people don't even see their doctor. People get the flu all the time and survive it! It would seem that your figures are based on people who are hospitalized from the flu rather than a representation of all people who have the flu.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2014 at 10:21pm
Pixie - I'm afraid I'm with Elver on this one. 23% would be a phenomenal CFR if that was anything but a regional anomaly. Granted, some of the clusters over here have demonstrated really high mortality rates, but that seems impossibly high for the general population. Even 8% is probably higher than Spanish Flu. With the rapid test being so unreliable and many people simply not going to the doctors (me included), there must be enough undiagnosed cases to lower the CFR.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2014 at 11:03pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Pixie - I'm afraid I'm with Elver on this one. 23% would be a phenomenal CFR if that was anything but a regional anomaly. Granted, some of the clusters over here have demonstrated really high mortality rates, but that seems impossibly high for the general population. Even 8% is probably higher than Spanish Flu. With the rapid test being so unreliable and many people simply not going to the doctors (me included), there must be enough undiagnosed cases to lower the CFR.


This is a good reference:


Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2014 at 12:13am
Chuck - those figures reference the number of fatalities in a group of 1088 hospitalized patients. The WHO's recent report states "the death rate in Mexico was estimated at 5.2 per 100,000 population, versus 0.4 per 100,000 in Australia, 0.3 in France, and 2.8 in the United States". Unless my math is wildly wrong, that puts the mortality for Mexico at 0.0052% with France coming in at 0.0003%. Although this doesn't reflect the true CFR, which counts only those infected - believed to be in the region of 20% of adults and 50% of schoolchildren - the figures seem to indicate it was no more deadly than seasonal flu, although it was noteworthy in that it attacked the young and healthy.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/11/study-estimates-2009-pandemic-deaths-203000



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