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H7N9 sees 'sporadic' human-to-human transmission: |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Posted: January 21 2014 at 11:05am |
H7N9 sees 'sporadic' human-to-human transmission: WHO
Following up on yesterday's headlines that a Shanghai doctor contracted the H7N9 avian flu and died, the World Health Organization has announced that human-to-human transmission of the virus might occur 'sporadically' in China. There is apparently "no need to panic," at least not just yet. The Shanghai doctor case is particularly troubling because, unlike most avian flu victims, the man had no contact with live poultry and his only interaction with the disease was via his infected patients. The biggest stumbling block preventing H7N9 from hitting epidemic proportions is its inability to infect humans without an animal vector, but the latest WHO report hints that this may be in for a change. The WHO has said that the doctor's case, as well as a few other represent, "only one cluster [where] human-to-human transmission might have occurred. We [the World Health Organization] continue to expect only sporadic human cases." The Chinese media haven't been particularly smooth about quelling unease over the coming flumageddon, as a recent health expert who talked with the China Daily can attest: "So there is no need to panic, although more human cases are expected in coming days," [the deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention] said. The H7N9 bird flu virus tends to be more active in winter and such a period of stronger viral activity might last into early spring, he noted. The main transmission route for the virus remains from birds to humans [and] among the cases reported, up to 70 percent had had contact with birds, he said. Any statement that being "don't panic, but" is probably in need of some rephrasing. Furthermore, "up to 70%" infection via birds still leaves at least a 30% chance of human transmission, which seems fairly high for something that has been described as isolated and sporadic. The WHO is, presumably, working overtime on this one, so we will hopefully have more information soon. |
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Buy more ammo!
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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One year ago, none of us had even heard of H7N9, but in the space of less than twelve months it's jumped to humans, sickened hundreds (maybe thousands) and killed dozens, and now the WHO are admitting it's sporadically H2H. Nothing to worry about yet?
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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arirish
Admin Group Joined: June 19 2013 Location: Arkansas Status: Offline Points: 39215 |
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Jacksdad- What worries me (and yes, I guess I'm a worrier) is the amount of patient delay in China. I've been looking at a lot of the case studies and many of the cases are poultry workers and farmers. The average time between onset and admission to hospital is five days. Some are as many as nine days. If they are contagious two days before onset that means they are handling chickens and the virus can jump back and forth for days and days before they are too sick to work. The more people that are infected, the more chance of mutation and it's very, very close to H2H now if it's not already! I think we are as close as we've been since 1918, 96 years ago.
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Buy more ammo!
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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arirish - we're all worriers. That's how we ended up here
H5N1 scared the bejeezus out of me for years, and while I haven't written that bad boy off yet, it's fortunately not unleashed it's worst on us yet. H7N9 is covering more ground in less time than H5N1 ever did though, and that's definitely getting me worried. Sporadically H2H in less than a year is more than enough reason. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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cobber
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Arirish...I've gone grey since visiting this site. LOL
I worry too.
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cobber
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Thanks for posting Arirish. This maybe the single biggest change we have witnessed to date. The WHO coming out and announcing a possible cluster with H2H!!!!!
Dose anyone remember the weird over reaction from the Hong Kong Government when they had their first H7N9 case. There was a big whohar about quarantining people with the virus on a friggen island. For me this was a big red flag, and said to me that they knew more than they were letting on. That was months ago. So maybe it wasn't such an over reaction??? This maybe the start of the big one folks. Keep your eyes peeled.....
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Kyle
Adviser Group Joined: May 29 2013 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 5800 |
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I'm presuming another country has been infected, perhaps not tested yet. But this is spreading fast, faster than MERS and that's been reported in several countries.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Glad to see the WHO acknowledging sporadic h2h cases - and limited h2h taking place. Now we're all getting on the same page of what's happening over there, and getting off the ridiculous notion that the h7n9 spread is solely linked to wet poultry markets. Now as soon as they put it together that there are asymptomatic carriers involved as the invisible link between human cases, then they're on track.
China is undoubtedly testing close contacts and finding asymptomatic cases. No brainer. That suppression of news is fairly significant and poses a risk to the rest of the world as far as I'm concerned. Only a matter of days now before h7 leaves Asia in my opinion, as well as China being exposed for yet another cover up to add to their long record of such things.
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Albert, the question is: what is China doing with the asymptomatic cases they find? Are they treatable? Do they simply remain superspreaders indefinitely like Typhoid Mary?
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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