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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Swine Flu 2015- beginning of a Pandemic

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Medclinician2013 View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 16 2015 at 1:15pm
A bit of login trouble - but have been tracking the spread of Swine Flu from Case 0 in India but as it begins to spread throughout the world.  In India, there are areas now reaching panic conditions.

http://www.ibtimes.com/india-swine-flu-2015-1731-dead-out-30000-documented-cases-1848194

The death toll in India’s latest swine flu outbreak has risen to 1,731, out of nearly 30,000 people stricken with the virus, health officials said Monday, with 21 new deaths reported in the past day alone. Health officials blamed lower temperatures and rains, unexpected during this time of year, for the spike in cases, according to a local news site.

Officials said such an outbreak would usually subside around this time of year as temperatures warm, but nearly 1,000 new cases have been reported so far in March as the total number of cases surpassed the record set by India's 2009 swine flu outbreak.

Cases of and deaths from the swine flu have been recorded all over the country in this most recent outbreak. In the western state of Gujarat, at least 387 people have died, out of more than 6,100 cases. In Rajasthan, in the northwest, 378 people have died. In other Indian states, deaths number in the hundreds and cases in the thousands.

Isolation wards in health centers would ordinarily be closed in April, but health officials expect they will now be kept open until cases of swine flu began receding, a local news site said. Various states have enacted public health measures such as free face masks or even free treatment for those with swine flu. In February, one city banned public gatherings in order to reduce the spread of the virus, even as the state’s health minister declined to declare the outbreak an epidemic.

The swine flu, or H1N1 virus, first surfaced in 2009 and is thought to have originated in pigs. A subsequent outbreak was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization and did not end until August 2010. The symptoms of swine flu are similar to those of other types of flu, such as a fever, sore throat or aches throughout the body.

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology announced Wednesday that the current strain of the virus is more dangerous than the kind that caused previous outbreaks, including the 2009 epidemic, which killed more than 2,700. But the Indian health ministry maintained that the virus is not more difficult to kill.

“The virus has not undergone any major mutation so as to make it more virulent,” the health ministry said recently in a statement to a local news site.

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Since December, an outbreak of swine flu in India has killed more than 1,200 people, and a new MIT study suggests that the strain has acquired mutations that make it more dangerous than previously circulating strains of H1N1 influenza.

The findings, which appear in the March 11 issue of Cell Host & Microbe, contradict previous reports from Indian health officials that the strain has not changed from the version of H1N1 that emerged in 2009 and has been circulating around the world ever since.

With very little scientific data available about the new strain, the MIT researchers stress the need for better surveillance to track the outbreak and to help scientists to determine how to respond to this influenza variant.

“We’re really caught between a rock and a hard place, with little information and a lot of misinformation,” says Ram Sasisekharan, the Alfred H. Caspary Professor of Biological Engineering at MIT and the paper’s senior author. “When you do real-time surveillance, get organized, and deposit these sequences, then you can come up with a better strategy to respond to the virus.”

In the past two years, genetic sequence information of the flu-virus protein hemagglutinin from only two influenza strains from India has been deposited into publicly available influenza databases, making it difficult to determine exactly which strain is causing the new outbreak, and how it differs from previous strains. However, those two strains yielded enough information to warrant concern, says Sasisekharan, who is also a member of MIT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2015 at 4:19pm
It's clearly a new variant by the number of cases, which would mean a potential pandemic strain.  It's also more severe than 09 pandemic h1n1 and we may very well see 25% more deaths in India as compared to 09 before it's over.

Almost a delayed replay of h1n1 from 1918, with regard to this enormous wave forming out of India.

Tricky little bug h1n1 is..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician2013 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2015 at 3:47pm
As Swine Flu continues to spread around the world, it is still a serious problem in India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Indian_swine_flu_outbreak

casualties 1,947 as of March 24th, 2015 [2]

2015 Indian swine flu outbreak refers to a outbreak of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus[3] in India, which is still ongoing as of February 2015. The states of Gujarat and Rajasthan are the worst effected.[4] [5]


As of March 20, 2015 31,974 people are infected in India. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician2013 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2015 at 3:49pm
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_swine-flu-death-toll-in-turkey-rises-to-42_376222.html

The Health Ministry has announced that the number of people in Turkey who have died from the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, has risen to 42, meaning that 12 more people have died from the disease since Monday.

A written statement from the ministry on Wednesday said a total of 42 people died from swine flu in Turkey, raising fears that the H1N1 virus would claim more lives.

Health Minister Mehmet Müezzinoğlu said earlier in the day that 60 percent of those who died due to the virus had pre-existing medical conditions which made them more vulnerable.

One of the people who died since Monday was a man in the southwestern province of Muğla. The 58-year-old man went to a hospital complaining of coughing and a high fever and was diagnosed with swine flu. He died on Tuesday at a hospital in İzmir, where he had been sent for treatment.

Many people in Turkey have become alarmed by the recent deaths from the H1N1 virus. However, although the Ministry of Health admits that swine flu cases are on the rise as a seasonal occurrence, it maintains that the situation does not amount to an epidemic. Experts state that no epidemic is expected and that the best way to tackle the disease is for individuals to practice good personal hygiene.

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