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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Readiness key to survival

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    Posted: March 12 2006 at 11:25pm
The Pueblo Chieftain Online

Health officials estimate that a full-blown flu pandemic could result in as
many as 45,000 cases in Pueblo County.

THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN

Personal preparedness will be a big part of surviving a possible flu
pandemic, Dr. Chris Nevin-Woods of the City-County Health Department
told a group of community representatives at a breakfast meeting Friday.

The health department has been planning for a pandemic for several
months, in meetings with other government agencies and medical
providers. There will be a tabletop exercise in coming months, and the
department plans a mass flu vaccine clinic to provide shots to 10,000
people on Dec. 2.

Although there isn't a vaccine yet for the avian flu that is considered the
most likely candidate to become a pandemic, Nevin-Woods said ordinary
flu shots may confer some protection against the bird flu. In the Spanish
flu pandemic of 1918-19, she noted, more young people died than older
people, and scientists speculate that the reason might be that older
people had survived more unrelated infections and developed more
immunities.

If a pandemic comes to Pueblo, she said, people ideally should be
prepared to stay in their own homes for two to three weeks. Public health
officials might have to close schools and public gathering places, and that
could include the mall and even grocery stores.

"So you would think you'd need food, but you also need to think about
having enough dog food, toilet paper, things for the family to do if they
can't leave the house, and preparation to take care of yourself if you get
sick or hurt," she said.

"How many of us would know what to do if your child fell and broke his
arm? Could you splint it if you couldn't get to the doctor for two or three
days?"

The health department has a grant to make a video to help with individual
and community preparedness, and it will be shared with other health
departments across the state, she said.

She also hopes to organize a medical reserve corps of trained volunteers
who could help with disease prevention efforts as well as response to
medical emergencies.

Other planning groups will be set up to think through issues in new ways.

"The hardest part of the mindset changes we need is how to deal with
everything ourselves, in our own community," Nevin-Woods said. "There
would be some tough decisions, for example, when we can't send the
sickest children to Denver like we do now - if you have 70 children who
need to be on respirators and there are only four or five in town."

The federal department of Health and Human Services is setting up state
summits on pandemic planning, and the Colorado summit will be March
24 in Denver.

To this point, there is no federal planning money, but Nevin-Woods said
she understands there will be at least some federal funding.

Following the course of bird flu across Asia and into Europe, Nevin-
Woods said it now appears infected birds might reach Alaska in April or
May and the continental United States in the fall.

"We need to let people know that you're not likely to be exposed unless
you're actually handling birds, slaughtering them and being exposed to
the blood," she said. There is no evidence yet that the virus has mutated
to the point that it can easily spread from human to human. That would
be the critical point signaling a pandemic.

If a pandemic does strike, Nevin-Woods said, "The assumption is that 30
percent of the population would become ill. That would be 45,000 people
in Pueblo County, and it could mean 22,000 clinic visits, 4,500 hospital
admissions including 720 intensive-care cases and 360 people needing
ventilators - and 960 deaths."


http://www.chieftain.com/print.php?article=/metro/1142190495 /5
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Devamitra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2006 at 2:40am

The hardest part of the mindset changes we need is how to deal with
everything ourselves, in our own community

Namaste,

This seems to be the key-note of the article. Modern day society has become very dependent of the "system" in many ways compared to what it was back in the 1800s. Self-sufficiency has not, however, completely disappeared from the minds of most rural people and therefore, there is some light of hope no matter how difficult it will be to survive for those who simply aren't ready.

Thank you for posting this article, Rick. :)

Thy Own Self, Devamitra

Sarvesham shantira bhavantu
Sarvesham purnam bhavantu
Lokah samastha sukhino bhavantu
Om shanti shanti shanti!
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