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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Lancet report on transmission
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oakviolet View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 25 2020 at 5:54am
Study of family of six provides insight into transmission and manifestation of infection. Study suggests transmission without symptoms.

https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301549.pdf
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oakviolet View Drop Down
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Points: 1130 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oakviolet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 7:19am
Here is an article from yesterday's New England Journal of Medicine:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017?query=featured_home
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Points: 29670 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 11:54am
Could you copy and paste the content from the lancet please? The link won't open. Thanks.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Points: 5740 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 2:24pm
it transmits asymptomatically and has a Rate of Mortality of 3% - so its the Spanish Flu Pandemic all over again.

This is it - this is a Pandemic

Lock the gates
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Points: 88450 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 2:50pm
No way is the death rate 3% that is a deliberate twisting of the figures. Until the length of time from symptoms appearing to death is known then the number infected at the same time of the deceased is unknown. This makes 3% way past best case senario.

I don't know the CFR, but it is somewhere between 3% and 44%. FluMom guesses 14% and I see no reason to dissagree with her.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Gdeb View Drop Down
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Points: 880 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 3:01pm
I agree. At least from what we are seeing on those videos from inside Wuhan, it appears more like most are either dying or are critical. I would agree with 14% or even higher. I wonder if it turns out to truly be an engineered virus from the lab, if that will have effects on kill rate and mutation? Anyone know if that makes a difference at all?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 3:43pm
I got the 14% by the Lancet report of 41 people followed and 6 died. 6 divided by 41 equals 0.146 or 14% if my math is wrong someone please correct me. I am not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.
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Points: 12270 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 3:45pm
The Lancet article is in PDF format, so if you have Adobe or some such app, you can open it that way.
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This has a link to an article by thegloveandmail.com   I can't open the article on my computer, but can on my phone...

In it it confirms a 15% of the first 41 patients dying.

https://twitter.com/MedicineMatters/status/1221123809161297920
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Points: 88450 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 4:25pm
Now THAT sounds like a figure I can believe in.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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