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Global Climate Change (Temperature Puzzle) |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Global temperatures in September were eighth warmest on recordAnnual minimum Arctic sea ice extent second smallest ever recordedOctober 13, 2011 The Earth experienced its eighth warmest September since record keeping began in 1880. The annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent was reached on September 9 and ranked as the second smallest extent since satellite records began in 1979. This monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. Global Temperature Highlights: September
Global Temperature Highlights: Year to date
Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111013_globalstats.html |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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U.S. dealt another La Nina winter but 'wild card' could trump itDevastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continueOctober 20, 2011 The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA. For the second winter in a row, La Nina will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The 'wild card' is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter. NOAA expects La Nina, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world. "The evolving La Nina will shape this winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Nina's typical impacts." The Arctic Oscillation is always present and fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009. Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. With La Nina in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011. Stormy periods can occur anytime during the winter season. To improve the ability to predict and track winter storms, NOAA implemented a more accurate weather forecast model on Oct.18. Data gathered from the model will support local weather forecast office efforts to prepare for and protect the public from weather events. This service is helping the country to become a Weather-Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise. According to the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds tilt in favor of:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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So what does 5000+ miles per hour look like (New NPP Launch-NASA)
New Weather and Climate Satelite (NOAA-NASA)
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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NOAA greenhouse gas index continues climbingNovember 9, 2011 NOAA's Patricia Lang prepares to measure greenhouse gas levels inside a flask that is part of NOAA's global air sampling network. Network measurements, made from remote sites around the world, are critical to NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, an annual measure of the heating effect of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities. (Credit: NOAA) NOAA�s updated Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which measures the direct climate influence of many greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, shows a continued steady upward trend that began with the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s. Started in 2004, the AGGI reached 1.29 in 2010. That means the combined heating effect of long-lived greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities has increased by 29 percent since 1990, the �index� year used as a baseline for comparison. This is slightly higher than the 2009 AGGI, which was 1.27, when the combined heating effect of those additional greenhouse gases was 27 percent higher than in 1990. �The increasing amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in our atmosphere indicate that climate change is an issue society will be dealing with for a long time,� said Jim Butler, director of the Global Monitoring Division of NOAA�s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. �Climate warming has the potential to affect most aspects of society, including water supplies, agriculture, ecosystems and economies. NOAA will continue to monitor these gases into the future to further understand the impacts on our planet.� The AGGI is analogous to the dial on an electric blanket � that dial does not tell you exactly how hot you will get, nor does the AGGI predict a specific temperature. Yet just as turning the dial up increases the heat of an electric blanket, a rise in the AGGI means greater greenhouse warming. VIDEO: NOAA greenhouse gas index continues climbing. View YouTube video (Credit: NOAA) NOAA scientists created the AGGI recognizing that carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas affecting the balance of heat in the atmosphere. Many other long-lived gases also contribute to warming, although not currently as much as carbon dioxide. The AGGI includes methane and nitrous oxide, for example, greenhouse gases that are emitted by human activities and also have natural sources and sinks. It also includes several chemicals known to deplete Earth�s protective ozone layer, which are also active as greenhouse gases. The 2010 AGGI reflects several changes in the concentration of these gases, including:
NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index is a gauge of the climate warming influence of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities and compared with the "index" year of 1990. The AGGI shows a steady upward trend, reaching 1.29 in 2010. This means that the heating effect of additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased by 29 percent since 1990 (Credit: NOAA)
Scientists at NOAA�s Earth System Research Laboratory prepare the AGGI each year from atmospheric data collected through an international cooperative air sampling network of more than 100 sites around the world. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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NOAA: Global temperatures 8th warmest on record for OctoberStrengthened La Nina conditions expected through winterNovember 15, 2011 The globe experienced its eighth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880. Arctic sea ice extent was the second smallest extent on record for October at 23.5 percent below average. Additionally, La Ni�a conditions strengthened during October 2011. According to NOAA�s Climate Prediction Center, La Nina is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This monthly analysis from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. Global temperature highlights: October
Global temperature highlights: Year to date
Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111115_globalstats.html |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Arctic changing 'at record pace': studyAn international team of 121 scientists has found "record-setting" change in the Arctic linked to global warming, including melting ice, warming waters and changing wind patterns.
The 2011 Arctic Report Card, compiled by scientists from 14 countries, "shows that record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. "Given the projection of continued global warming, it is very likely that major Arctic changes will continue in years to come, with increasing climatic, biological and social impacts," the report said. The authors of the annual report -- first released in 2006 -- said there is now sufficient data to indicate a "persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a warmer, fresher upper ocean." Average temperatures over much of the Arctic have risen some 2.5 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) from a 1981-2010 baseline, and the minimum area of sea ice recorded this year, in September 2011, was the second lowest since 1979. The "profound and continuing" changes have had an uneven impact on Arctic wildlife, threatening the icy habitats of polar bears and walruses but giving whales greater access to northern feeding areas, the report said. The warming has also caused new vegetation to sprout in many areas, and has led to a 20 percent increase in phytoplankton, microscopic organisms that are the basis of the oceanic food chain. The report also found that changes in Arctic winter wind patterns first detected in 2010 have continued. "The Arctic region continues to warm, with less sea ice and greater green vegetation," said Monica Medina, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ________________________________________________________________________________________
Thawing permafrost vents gases to worsen warmingBy SETH BORENSTEIN WASHINGTON (AP) - Massive amounts of greenhouse gases trapped below thawing permafrost will likely seep into the air over the next several decades, accelerating and amplifying global warming, scientists warn. Those heat-trapping gases under the frozen Arctic ground may be a bigger factor in global warming than the cutting down of forests, and a scenario that climate scientists hadn't quite accounted for, according to a group of permafrost experts. The gases won't contribute as much as pollution from power plants, cars, trucks and planes, though. The permafrost scientists predict that over the next three decades a total of about 45 billion metric tons of carbon from methane and carbon dioxide will seep into the atmosphere when permafrost thaws during summers. That's about the same amount of heat-trapping gas the world spews during five years of burning coal, gas and other fossil fuels And the picture is even more alarming for the end of the century. The scientists calculate that about than 300 billion metric tons of carbon will belch from the thawing Earth from now until 2100. Adding in that gas means that warming would happen "20 to 30 percent faster than from fossil fuel emissions alone," said Edward Schuur of the University of Florida. "You are significantly speeding things up by releasing this carbon." Usually the first few to several inches of permafrost thaw in the summer, but scientists are now looking at up to 10 feet of soft unfrozen ground because of warmer temperatures, he said. The gases come from decaying plants that have been stuck below frozen ground for millennia. Schuur and 40 other scientists in the Permafrost Carbon Research Network met this summer and jointly wrote up their findings, which were published in the journal Nature on Wednesday. "The survey provides an important warning that global climate warming is likely to be worse than expected," said Jay Zwally, a NASA polar scientist who wasn't part of the study. "Arctic permafrost has been like a wild card." When the Nobel Prize-winning panel of climate scientists issued its last full report in 2007, it didn't even factor in trapped methane and carbon dioxide from beneath the permafrost. Diplomats are meeting this week in South Africa to find ways of curbing human-made climate change. Schuur and others said increasing amounts of greenhouse gas are seeping out of permafrost each year. Some is methane, which is 25 times stronger than carbon dioxide in trapping heat. In a recent video, University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Katey Walter Anthony, a study co-author, is shown setting leaking methane gas on fire with flames shooting far above her head. "Places like that are all around," Anthony said in a phone interview. "We're tapping into old carbon that has been locked up in the ground for 30,000 to 40,000 years." That triggers what Anthony and other scientists call a feedback cycle. The world warms, mostly because of human-made greenhouse gases. That thaws permafrost, releasing more natural greenhouse gas, augmenting the warming. There are lots of unknowns and a large margin of error because this is a relatively new issue with limited data available, the scientists acknowledge. "It's very much a seat-of-the-pants expert assessment," said Stanford University's Chris Field, who wasn't involved in the new report. The World Meteorological Organization this week said the worst of the warming in 2011 was in the northern areas - where there is permafrost - and especially Russia. Since 1970, the Arctic has warmed at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the globe. The thawing permafrost also causes trees to lean - scientists call them "drunken trees" - and roads to buckle. Study co-author F. Stuart Chapin III said when he first moved to Fairbanks the road from his house to the University of Alaska had to be resurfaced once a decade. "Now it gets resurfaced every year due to thawing permafrost," Chapin said. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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January 2012 the fourth warmest for the contiguous United StatesLocations across Alaska record cold for the month(Credit: NOAA) During January, warmer-than-average conditions enveloped most of the contiguous United States, with widespread below-average precipitation. The overall weather pattern for the month was reflected in the lack of snow for much of the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. This scenario was in stark contrast to Alaska where several towns had their coldest January on record. This monthly analysis from NOAA is part of the suite of climate services we provide government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, 5.5 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average -- the fourth warmest January on record, and the warmest since 2006. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 1.85 inches. This was 0.37 inch below the long-term average, with variability between regions. U.S. Climate Highlights � January
U.S. Climate Highlights � Winter to Date (December 2011-January 2012)
U.S. Climate Highlights � Last 12 months (February 2011-January 2012)
http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/jan_stats.html |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Oceans Acidifying Fastest in 300 Million Years By Alex Morales -
Mar 2, 2012 4:43 AM MT Oceans absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, changing their pH and endangering marine life. Photograph: Justin Borucki/Image Source
The Earth's oceans may be acidifying faster than at any point during the last 300 million years due to industrial emissions, endangering marine life from oysters and reefs to sea-going salmon, researchers said. The scientists found surging levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere forced down the pH of the ocean by 0.1 unit in the last century, 10 times faster than the closest historical comparison from 56 million years ago, New York�s Columbia University, which led the research, said yesterday in a statement. The seas absorb CO2 from the atmosphere, forming carbonic acid. The lower the pH level in the seas, the more acidic they are. Past instances of ocean acidification have been linked with mass extinctions of marine creatures so the current one could also threaten important species, according to Baerbel Hoenisch, the paleoceanographer at Columbia who was lead author of the paper that appeared in the journal Science. "If industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace, we may lose organisms we care about - coral reefs, oysters, salmon," Hoenisch said. The UN�s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said ocean pH may fall another 0.3 units this century, according to Columbia. The closest change to the current pace occurred during the so-called Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum about 56 million years ago, when a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may have pushed pH levels down by 0.45 units over 20,000 years, according to the researchers. Fossil RecordsThen, fossil records indicate as many as half of all species of seabed-dwelling single-celled creatures called benthic foraminifers went extinct, suggesting species higher up the food chain may also have died out, they said. The scientists used fossil records including the preservation of calcium carbonate in ocean sediments and the concentrations of various elements to reconstruct past ocean conditions. Two other mass extinctions about 200 million years and 252 million years ago may also be linked to acidification, though there�s less fossil evidence, according to the study. "Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry - a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place," the researchers wrote. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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God always has had a plan for my life and I know he has a plan for the World. Maybe we need to have this heat because we could be coming up on to a Mini-Ice Age.
There just may be a reason for the green-house gases. Since man seems not willing or able to cure green-house gases we may have to go with the flow. I trust in God! |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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NOAA-led study: Colorado oil and gas wells emit more pollutants than expectedFeb. 27, 2012 Contact: Katy Human, 303-497-4747 When NOAA scientists began routinely monitoring the
atmosphere's composition at a tower north of Denver a few years ago, their
instruments immediately sniffed something strange: plumes of air rich with
chemical pollutants including the potent greenhouse gas methane. Some of the pollutants picked up are known to damage air quality. Another, methane, is 25 times more effective per molecule than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. The scientists were concerned. None of NOAA's other air composition monitoring towers - there are eight, in total, scattered around the continental United States - had recorded anything similar. Petron and co-workers customized air sampling devices and atmospheric chemistry instruments and headed out to northeastern Colorado, downwind of possible sources to collect chemical "fingerprints" that would help identify the possible sources. After taking dozens of samples and thousands of readings along rural roads, near oil and gas equipment, landfills, and animal feeding operations, the research team has an answer: The unusual air pollutants seen at the Denver tower came primarily from oil and gas production in northeastern Colorado's Weld County. "We found gas operations in the region leaked about twice as much methane into the atmosphere as previously estimated," Petron said. "And the oil and gas infrastructure was leaking other air pollutants, too, including benzene, which is regulated because of its toxicity." Petron is lead author in a paper published online in the Journal of Geophysical Research this week. In 2008, the year most of the data were collected, Weld County had nearly 14,000 operating oil and gas wells. The research team's chemical fingerprinting work showed that oil and gas equipment and activities - well pads equipment including condensate storage tanks, pipelines, compressors and more - leaked or vented an estimated 4 percent of all natural gas produced to the atmosphere. That loss is about double the previous best-guess estimate, based on engineering calculations and industry data, of about 2 percent loss. "We may have been significantly underestimating methane emissions by this industry in this region," Petron said. The team also found that emissions of benzene, a
known carcinogen, are underestimated. Benzene is tracked and regulated by the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Finally, the researchers' findings suggest that oil and gas-related emissions of more reactive volatile organic compounds, which contribute to lung-damaging ozone pollution, are also underestimated. More reactive VOCs were not directly measured in the 2008 study, but are almost certainly co-emitted with methane and larger alkanes. According to the EPA, the northern Front Range has been out of compliance with federal health-based standards in the summer since 2007. Chemist Greg Frost, Ph.D. also with NOAA and CIRES and a co-author of the new study, said the work demonstrates the value of studying emissions from several perspectives. Top-down studies (such as from the tall tower) can complement and verify bottom-up approaches (such as estimates based on average leak rates at pipe junctions). "What Gabrielle has done is to use the mobile laboratory and tower data to make top-down estimates of emissions, which can be used to evaluate the bottom-up estimates from industry and regulatory agencies," Frost said. "This is going to inspire a lot more research." |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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There's no doubt in my mind that humans are causing climate change. You make a change in a system, the system changes. It's just basic high school science - cause and effect. You pump up CO2 in the atmosphere, you'll see a change. If you don't believe it, stick around. Denying it won't stop it, but go ahead if it makes you feel better.
We're seeing unprecedented changes in our world, and we can't even begin to understand the links between all the components that make it up. If we're lucky we won't initiate something truly catastrophic, like turning off the thermohaline circulation (THC) conveyor belt that stops the northeastern states and northern Europe from resembling Alaska, and the southern oceans warming and spawning more powerful monsoons. We get most of our food from a few key locations - the so-called bread baskets and rice bowls of the world. Favorable weather conditions were key to their location, and if these areas started to see more or less rain, shorter growing seasons, etc, we'd be forced to relocate entire regions that took many generations to become established in the first place. By the middle of this century population projections indicate we'll need to increase food production by 70% just to keep up, and that's not going to happen. We're talking about three or four decades before we're going to be looking at food shortages even without any disruption to farming as we know it. That's well within our children's lifetime, and close enough that some of us will be seeing it too. I don't think we'll change as a species and fix things in time, but without a doubt we'll have change forced upon us. The thin envelope of gas and water that covers this planet doesn't know we exist or even care about us. It's an unthinking system controlled by physical laws and it'll move the weather around irrespective of our needs and wants. When we can't feed ourselves anymore at the population level we've artificially sustained we'll die back as a species. We won't become extinct, but hopefully we'll learn this time around and not screw things up as badly next time. Fingers crossed... |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records brokenFirst quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster" Record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895. More than 15,000 warm temperature records were broken during the month. The average temperature of 51.1 F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March and 0.5 F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months (117+ years) that have passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one month, January 2006, has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Note: The March 2012 Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding the unprecedented early 2012 temperatures. U.S. climate highlights - March
Year-to-date (January-March)
Cold season (October-March) and 12-month period (April 2011-May 2012)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/3 __________________________________________________________________________________________ Missed Febuary Post |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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quietone
V.I.P. Member Joined: September 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 112 |
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data CenterMarch global temperatures were coolest since 1999 (Despite US records of warmest March) Month ranks 16th warmest March for globe; La Niña expected to dissipate by the end of April The average global temperature for March 2012 made it the coolest March since 1999, yet the 16th warmest since record keeping began in 1880. Arctic sea ice extent during the month was below average but was the largest extent since 2008 and one of the largest March extents of the past decade. Additionally, La Niña conditions continued to weaken during March as temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during the last two months. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to dissipate by the end of April 2012. Global temperature highlights: March
Global temperature highlights: Year to date
Polar sea ice and precipitation highlights
Included in this report: NOAA is now making it easier to find information about margins of error associated with its global temperature calculations. NCDC previously displayed this information in certain graphics associated with the report, but it will now publish these ranges in the form of "plus or minus" values associated with each monthly temperature calculation. These values are calculated using techniques published in peer-reviewed scientific literature |
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Swish
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Thanks quitone for updating end of the month global, I fixed a couple of the graphics so they could be read.
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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La Nina fading, likely gone by end of April Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean swing back and forth every few years (sometimes more) like an irregular pendulum. The warm phase is known as El Ni�o; the cool phase�which it has been in for the past two winters�is called La Nina. According to NOAA's April 2012 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, La Ni�a is fading and will likely be over by the end of April. The pair of maps shows the difference from average temperature in the tropical Pacific near the winter peak of the La Nina event on January 12 and on April 15. Places where the ocean was up to 5 degrees Celsius colder than the 1981-2010 average are dark blue, average temperatures are white, and places where temperatures were up to 5 degrees C warmer than average are red. Although one climate pattern can't explain every bit of wacky weather that happens on Earth, when it comes to making seasonal forecasts, the occurrence of an El Ni�o or La Ni�a event is the single most useful predictor that climate scientists have for forecasting if seasonal precipitation and temperature are likely to be above or below normal. By studying past La Nina and El Nino episodes, scientists have detected predictable rainfall and temperature patterns that often occur from one episode to the next. La Ni�a winters, for example, have a high probability of being colder and wetter (or snowier) than normal in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and warmer and drier in the Southeast. On the far side of the Pacific, La Nina is usually accompanied by heavier than normal rainfall and cooler than usual temperatures in eastern Australia. With La Nina fading, forecasts for the rest of spring and summer are likely to be less confident, with factors such as current soil moisture and long-term trends providing weaker hints as to what the climate over the next few seasons will be like. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Weather Derivatives: Hedging on Mother Nature Apr 19, 2012 ||Adam Clements For some industries, the weather plays a significant role in determining revenue. Unexpected weather events can often cause significant financial losses. For instance, a drought can yield a severe impact on an agribusiness amount and quality of produce; unseasonably mild winters can similarly diminish the profit margins of utility companies. So, how can companies - particularly those at the mercy of Mother Nature - protect themselves against the elements and limit their exposure to financial risk? Increasingly, companies have been managing weather risk by using derivatives, which provide the means for businesses to protect themselves against adverse financial affects that are due to variations in climate. According to industry body, the Weather Risk Management Association, trading volume of weather derivatives in 2010-2011 increased by 20 percent on the previous year. How it WorksDerivative contracts generally represent a contract to trade a specified quantity of an underlying asset, at an agreed price and time. By making a payment to a separate company that will assume the financial weather risk for them, organizations are buying a type of insurance: the company assuming the risk will pay the purchaser a pre-set amount of money that will correspond to the loss or cost increase caused by the disruptive weather. As such, risk exposure can be managed in a wide range of settings. Weather derivatives derive their value from climatic conditions such as temperature, snowfall, hurricanes or rainfall. An important set of contracts traded at CME Group are temperature-based futures contracts. Contracts are offered for trade based on the temperature across a range of U.S., European and Australian cities such as Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. The most common of these contracts come in the form of either Heating Degree Day (HDD) or Cooling Degree Day (CDD) contracts. The payoff of these contracts is based on the cumulated difference in daily temperatures relative to 18�C (about 64�F) over a fixed period such as a month. The fixed level of 18�C is the temperature at which the energy sector believes little heating or cooling occurs in households. The buyer of a HDD or CDD contract benefits from a positive payoff if cumulative temperature is below or above a specified level. While this nomenclature may seem counter-intuitive, heating (or cooling) occurs when temperatures are lower (higher). Major participants in this market include utilities and insurance companies, whose costs and or revenues are dependent upon weather conditions. In an Australian setting, an electricity supplier normally provides its customers with electricity at a fixed price irrespective of the wholesale price in the National Electricity Market. However, the wholesale price of electricity can fluctuate wildly with extreme weather conditions. CDD contracts can provide a hedging tool for such fluctuations in electricity prices in the wholesale market during periods of extremely high temperatures. Similar arguments apply in the northern hemisphere, where utilities face risk from increased demand during periods of low temperatures and hence HDD contracts are a natural hedging tool. Pricing WeatherFutures on traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, agricultural and most energy products are priced under the cost of carry approach. The logic of this approach is that there are two alternatives for obtaining the asset in question at some point in the future. These are either, borrow to purchase it now and store the asset, or agree to purchase the asset at that later date via a futures contract. Under the absence of arbitrage, the cost of both approaches should be equivalent. Hence the current cost of a futures contract is related to the current price of the asset and the cost of borrowing and storing the asset. This arbitrage-free valuation approach is a simple yet common method for pricing many financial securities. Weather derivatives have also gained research attention in academic circles as they represent a unique pricing problem. The cost of carry method is based on the possibility of storing, or holding the underlying asset. However, in the case of weather contracts such as HDD or CDD, the underlying asset is not storable in any meaningful way. As such, the cost of carry approach is not relevant and pricing is based on a discounted value of the payoff from the futures contract. A statistical model is required to generate the possible range of outcomes that the underlying weather index may take and subsequent payoffs ensuing from the derivatives contract. The discount rate will be market determined given the prices for contracts that the market will bear. Weather derivatives are of great economic importance in that they allow participants to manage a very specific form of risk. While weather futures contracts currently make up a relatively small proportion of trading in derivatives markets, it is a sector that is experiencing rapid growth - particularly as more companies recognize the correlation between weather and profit.
This is an edited version of an article originally published at The Conversation. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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NASA/SDO/J. Major ____________________________________________________________________________________ Do solar storms cause heat waves on Earth? April 2012 Although solar flares, and associated coronal mass ejections, can bombard Earth's outermost atmosphere with tremendous amounts of energy, most of that energy is reflected back into space by the Earth's magnetic field. Because the energy does not reach our planet's surface, it has no measurable influence on surface temperature. The heat wave that affected the eastern and central United States in March 2012 coincided with a flurry of solar eruptions, and it's not unreasonable to wonder if such events are related. After all, the Sun's energy is the source of Earth's warmth. But most of the energy released by solar storms like those on March 8-10 is not like the visible and ultraviolet light that penetrates Earth's atmosphere and warms the surface. Instead, solar storms hurl bursts of electrically charged particles through space, and the particles aimed at the Earth encounter our planet's magnetic field and upper atmosphere, the thermosphere. The stream of energetic particles warms the thermosphere. Carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide, coolants in the thermosphere, absorb the energy and then re-radiate heat back into space. A small fraction of the extra heat from the solar flare radiates to layers of the atmosphere below the thermosphere, but it is miniscule compared to the normal amount of heating the lower layers of the atmosphere already experience from incoming visible and ultraviolet sunlight. Solar flares don't cause heat waves, but they do have other impacts on Earth. Consequences include pretty auroras, as well as hazards. They can rain extra radiation on satellites, and increase the drag on satellites in low-Earth orbit. Increased electromagnetic activity due to solar storms can also disrupt power grids and radio communications. Passengers on commercial jets flying polar routes may be exposed to increased electromagnetic radiation. Short-lived solar explosions don't influence weather events like the March 2012 heat wave, but longer-term variations in solar output might affect Earth's climate. The latter half of the seventeenth century experienced a decades-long stretch of minimal solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum, which many scientists suspect may have triggered the Little Ice Age-a cold spell that chilled the Northern Hemisphere from about 1650 to 1850. Over the long term, however, multiple records indicate that the amount of energy the Earth receives from the Sun is quite stable. Astronomers have aimed telescopes at the Sun since the Scientific Revolution, and recent studies have reconstructed solar activity over the past three centuries. Satellites have observed the Sun since 1978, and found that solar activity varies on a roughly 11-year cycle by about one-tenth of one percent. As for the solar storm in early March 2012, it released a substantial amount of energy, but almost all of it was re-radiated back into space, and very little penetrated the lower atmosphere. Martin Mlynczak, associate principal investigator for NASA's Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, says, "The extra energy from this storm is on the order of 100,000 times less than the energy we normally get at the Earth's surface. It's so small that you wouldn't even notice it." http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/do-solar-storms-cause-heat-waves-on-earth _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Other related Article (NASA) ____________________________________________________________________________ Addressing misinformation on this subject
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Nature Observation Database Receives One-Millionth Entry Key database monitoring climate change received its one-millionth report from a network of "citizen scientists"
May 3, 2012 On April 30, 2012, the USA National Phenology Network (NPN), partially funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), received its one-millionth nature observation from volunteers--many of whom are non-scientists or "citizen scientists." The observation will help understand the impacts of climate change on Earth's plants and animals. Scientists and citizen volunteers contribute individual bits of data to NPN daily concerning phenology, the study of the timing of plant and animal responses--such as leafing, flowering, nesting, foliage changes, hibernation and migration--to seasonal changes. Resource managers combine the data into an increasingly detailed record of how Earth's climate is evolving and how it might affect humans and Mother Nature down the road. Hitting the one-millionth observation is exciting because researchers and decision-makers need more information to understand and respond to our rapidly changing planet," said Jake Weltzin, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist and executive director of NPN. "More information means better-informed decisions that ensure the continued vitality of our natural areas that we all depend on--and enjoy." One millionth observation Watching and reporting the flowering of a nearby vine maple, Acer circinatum, turned into the millionth observation submitted through NPN's online observation program, Nature's Notebook. Lucille Tower, an amateur scientist from Portland, Ore. submitted the record. "Tower responded "yes" to the question on the NPN's observation submission form: "Did you see: One or more fresh open or unopened flowers or flower buds visible in the plant?" The record marked a precisely defined point in the life cycle of the vine maple, something that researchers observe while monitoring how climate change affects the start and end point of a plant's viability. "We're excited about the quantity of observations and what it means for potentially answering the big questions," said Alyssa Rosemartin, NPN's assistant director. "Our first records in the contemporary system are from Erin Lindquist, a professor at Meredith College, whose students collected thousands of records on deciduous tree phenology in North Carolina in the fall of 2008, and the millionth was submitted by a participant in Portland Budwatch, one of our partners that has set up several phenology trails and trained 100 observers in Portland. Look how far we've come." Societal and economic benefits The NPN provides a myriad of societal benefits by, for example, supporting the development of more accurate forecasts of the onset of allergy seasons; the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as lyme disease and West Nile virus; the movements of invasive plants; the development of drought conditions--information that could be used to help improve the health and welfare of large human populations, contribute to the management of water resources, wildlife and working farms and ranches, and maintain the vitality of ecosystems. Weltzin says the NPN database also supports analyses of climate-change impacts that have important potential economic implications. Several examples:
Increasing the application of nature observations to economic analyses is a goal of the NPN, and citizen scientists have more than been up to the job. "Depending on the task at hand, trained non-scientists can produce data that is just as reliable as data produced by (professional) scientists," said Weltzin. Steps in the journey In addition to producing high quality data, armies of NPN volunteers also produce a high quantity of data. The NPN typically receives between 2,000 and 3,000 nature observations per day-most of which would otherwise be unobtainable. Weltzin said that each and every one of these observations is important because they help fill a hole in our knowledge base. Moreover, a single observation can be analyzed in tandem with other observations to help create the big picture of how a particular species is responding to climate changes. Suppose, for example, that several volunteers in a certain geographic area each alert the NPN as to the first bloom date of a dogwood tree in the spring. Those individual observations could then be analyzed as a group to determine the pattern of dogwood blooms in the area. "So much of our improved understanding about global environmental changes is driven by varied and valuable sources of information that include ambitious networks of citizen-scientists," said John Wingfield, NSF assistant director for Biological Sciences. "Knowledge gained from their dedicated work will continue to have a lasting effect on how we understand regularly recurring biological phenomena for hundreds of plant and animal species and collectively, they contribute to the policy arena." Changing seasons Changes in phenology are among the most sensitive biological indicators of global change. Across the world, many springtime events are occurring earlier--and fall events happening later--than in the past. Plants and animals are responding to these changes in different ways and at different speeds. These varying responses can be damaging to the life-sustaining relationships among creatures that have been dynamically stable for thousands of years. For example, some wildflowers that migratory hummingbirds look for when they arrive in their summer habitats are flowering earlier--even before the hummingbirds arrive. The resulting missed opportunity with the flowers can deprive the birds of an important food source. If the trend continues, populations of hummingbirds and wildflowers could precipitously decline. In addition, some birds now remain year-round in their summer habitats instead of flying south for the winter. Because of these types of changes, scientists need more and improved information about the pace and pattern of nature--locally to nationally--to answer important scientific and societal questions and to build the tools and models needed to help people understand and adapt to the changes at hand. Individuals of all ages, from school children to retirees, as well as entire classes and community groups, are invited to join the NPN "army" of citizen scientists; no minimal level of commitment is required. Some volunteers submit their observations on a regular basis while others contribute occasionally, or even contribute valuable archived "shoeboxed" records that, when possible, are added to the NPN database to support analyses of long-term trends. What could be in it for you? Weltzin said that volunteers contribute to the NPN for varied reasons, including the opportunity to:
Investigators _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Are you a Nature Buff?? Like to observe plants and animals (Join IN) Steps To Get Started 3. Sign up to be an observer
Become an official participant and set your username and password. All you need is an email address and Internet access. 4. Log in to Nature's Notebook Now you are ready to register your site and the plants and animals you will observe, and start reporting! As you collect data during the season, log in to your account at "Nature's Notebook" and enter your observations. Once you've submitted your observations, you can explore your data on the dynamic visualization tool and check out your standing on the leaderboards. |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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U.S. temperatures for April third warmest on recordPast 12 months and first third of the year were warmest nation has experienced Several warm periods across the contiguous U.S. during April brought the national average temperature to 55F, 3.6F above average, marking the third warmest April on record. These temperatures, when added with the first quarter and previous 11 months, calculate to the warmest year-to-date and 12-month periods since recordkeeping began in 1895. The 12-month period of May 2011-April 2012 has a nationally-averaged temperature 2.8F above the 1901-2000 long-term average, while the January-April 2012 months were 45.4F, 5.4F above the long-term average. On the heels of the warmest March for the U.S., warmer and drier than average temperatures continued for much of the nation with some states in the Ohio Valley having a small, but still above average, dip in temperatures. Note: The April 2012 Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding the unprecedented early 2012 temperatures. U.S. climate highlights - AprilWarmer-than-average temperatures were present for a large portion of the nation during April with nine states in the Central and Northeast regions having April temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Above-average temperatures were also present for the Southeast, Upper Midwest and much of the West. Eight states - Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia - had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures. However, these temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. Statewide precipitation totals were mixed during April, with wetter than average conditions across the West Coast and Northern and Central Plains. Drier than average conditions were present in Texas and along the Gulf Coast, stretching northward toward the Great Lakes. The national precipitation average was 2.23 inches, 0.20 inch below average. According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the April snow cover extent across the contiguous United States was the third smallest on record, despite the late season Nor'easter which impacted the Northeast with snow near the end of April. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there were 228 preliminary tornado reports during April, above the 1991-2010 average for the month. The majority of the tornadoes occurred during an April 14th outbreak across the Central Plains. Tornado activity during April 2012 was in stark contrast to April 2011, when over 750 tornadoes tore across the Southeast, causing significant damage and loss of life. U.S. climate highlights - Year-to-dateJanuary-April was the warmest such period on record for the contiguous United States, with an average temperature of 45.4F, 5.4F above the long-term average. Twenty-six states, all east of the Rockies, were record warm for the four-month period and an additional 17 states had temperatures for the period among their ten warmest.
The first four months of 2012 were drier than average for the contiguous United States as a whole, with some regional variability. The eastern third of the nation was drier than average, with Maryland and Delaware record dry, and an additional six states had precipitation totals ranking among the ten driest. Drier than average conditions were also present for much of the Interior West. Wetter than average conditions occurred across the central regions of the country and the Pacific Northwest, where above average precipitation contributed to higher than normal mountain snowpack at the end of the snow season. The amount of snowpack in the springtime is important in determining water supply for the region for the upcoming summer period. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of May 1st, 38.2 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions, an increase from the 31.9 percent at the beginning of 2012. Drought worsened across the Northeast, Southeast, and the Interior West while beneficial precipitation significantly improved drought conditions across the Southern Plains and western Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record 42 percent during the January-April period, over twice the average value. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures (82 percent) and warm nighttime temperatures (68 percent) covered a large area of the nation, contributing to the record high value. 12-month period (May 2011 - April 2012) The 12 month period beginning May 2011 through April 2012, which includes several warm episodes for the country — second hottest summer, fourth warmest winter, and warmest March — was the warmest consecutive May-April year-long period for the contiguous United States. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period and an additional 19 states were top ten warm. The 12-month running average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 55.7F, 2.8F above the 20th century average. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/4
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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April Global Temperatures Are Fifth Warmest State of the Climate |
April | Anomaly | Rank (out of 133 years) | Records | |||
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C | F | Year(s) | C | F | ||
Global | ||||||
Land | +1.39 +/- 0.11 | +2.50 +/- 0.20 | 2nd Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +1.44 | +2.59 |
132nd Coolest | Coolest: 1905 | -0.79 | -1.42 | |||
Ocean | +0.38 +/- 0.04 | +0.68 +/- 0.07 | 11th Warmest | Warmest: 1998, 2010 | +0.56 | +1.01 |
123rd Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
Ties: 2011 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.65 +/- 0.08 | +1.17 +/- 0.14 | 5th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.75 | +1.35 |
129th Coolest | Coolest: 1909 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
Northern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +1.74 +/- 0.14 | +3.13 +/- 0.25 | 1st Warmest | Warmest: 2000* | +1.62* | +2.92* |
133rd Coolest | Coolest: 1905 | -1.05 | -1.89 | |||
Ocean | +0.37 +/- 0.04 | +0.67 +/- 0.07 | 9th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.59 | +1.06 |
125th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
Ties: 2001 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.89 +/- 0.11 | +1.60 +/- 0.20 | 1st Warmest | Warmest: 2007+, 2010+ | +0.87+ | +1.57+ |
133rd Coolest | Coolest: 1909 | -0.59 | -1.06 | |||
Southern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +0.47 +/- 0.14 | +0.85 +/- 0.25 | 23rd Warmest | Warmest: 2005, 2007 | +1.07 | +1.93 |
111st Coolest | Coolest: 1917 | -0.76 | -1.37 | |||
Ties: 2011 | ||||||
Ocean | +0.41 +/- 0.05 | +0.74 +/- 0.09 | 14th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.61 | +1.10 |
120th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
Land and Ocean | +0.42 +/- 0.06 | +0.76 +/- 0.11 | 16th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.66 | +1.19 |
118th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
Ties: 1990, 1991 |
* Please note that the value depicted as record year (2000) for the Northern Hemisphere land is the second warmest year on record.
+ Please note that the value depicted as record year (2007 and 2010) for the Northern Hemisphere land and ocean tie for the second warmest year on record.
The January�April map of temperature anomalies shows that warmer-than-average temperatures occurred across the contiguous United States, southern Canada, Mexico, southern South America, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, northern Russia, and parts of southeastern Asia. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed across Alaska, northern Africa, central Asia, eastern Russia, and most of Australia.
The globally-averaged land and ocean temperature for January�April 2012 was 0.46�C (0.83�F) above the 20th century average of 12.6C (54.8F), the coolest such period since 2008 and the 15th warmest such period in the 133-year record. The land-only global average temperature anomaly of 0.75C (1.35F) above the 20th century average of 4.8C (40.5F) ties with 2011 as the 17th warmest such period and was the coolest such period since 1997. Meanwhile, the global ocean temperature tied with 1999 as the 13th warmest such period, with an anomaly of 0.35C (0.63F) above the 20th century average of 15.9C (60.7F)�the coolest January�April anomaly since 2008.
January�April | Anomaly | Rank (out of 133 years) | Records | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | F | Year(s) | C | F | ||
Global | ||||||
Land | +0.75 +/- 0.22 | +1.35 +/- 0.40 | 17th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +1.38 | +2.48 |
117th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -1.04 | -1.87 | |||
Ties: 2011 | ||||||
Ocean | +0.35 +/- 0.04 | +0.63 +/- 0.07 | 13th Warmest | Warmest: 1998, 2010 | +0.56 | +1.01 |
121st Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.51 | -0.92 | |||
Ties: 1999 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.46 +/- 0.09 | +0.83 +/- 0.16 | 15th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.71 | +1.28 |
119th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
Northern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +0.87 +/- 0.26 | +1.57 +/- 0.47 | 18th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +1.58 | +2.84 |
116th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -1.25 | -2.25 | |||
Ocean | +0.32 +/- 0.05 | +0.58 +/- 0.09 | 13th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.55 | +0.99 |
121st Coolest | Coolest: 1904, 1908, 1911 | -0.46 | -0.83 | |||
Land and Ocean | +0.53 +/- 0.14 | +0.95 +/- 0.25 | 16th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +0.89 | +1.60 |
118th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -0.71 | -1.28 | |||
Ties: 2008 | ||||||
Southern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +0.43 +/- 0.14 | +0.77 +/- 0.25 | 22nd Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +1.02 | +1.84 |
112nd Coolest | Coolest: 1917 | -0.80 | -1.44 | |||
Ties: 1969 | ||||||
Ocean | +0.38 +/- 0.04 | +0.68 +/- 0.07 | 15th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.60 | +1.08 |
119th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
Ties: 2000 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.39 +/- 0.07 | +0.70 +/- 0.13 | 17th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.65 | +1.17 |
117th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.54 | -0.97 | |||
Ties: 1973 |
The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN version 2 dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961�1990. During April 2012, above-average precipitation fell over areas that included the central and northwestern United States, and parts of northern and southern South America, Europe, and eastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were present across the eastern United States, the Hawaiian Islands, eastern Brazil, and southern parts of South America, and Australia.
Could human activity push Earth's biological systems to a planet-wide tipping point, causing changes as radical as the Ice Age's end - but with less pleasant results, and with billions of people along for a bumpy ride?
It's by no means a settled scientific proposition, but many researchers say it's worth considering - and not just as an apocalyptic warning or far-fetched speculation, but as a legitimate question raised by emerging science.
"There are some biological realities we can�t ignore," said paleoecologist Anthony Barnosky of the University of California, Berkeley. "What I'd like to avoid is getting caught by surprise."
In "Approaching a state shift in Earth�s biosphere," published June 6 in Nature, Barnosky and 21 co-authors cite 100 papers in summarizing what�s known about environmental tipping points.
While the concept was popularized by Malcolm Gladwell's accounts of sudden, widespread changes in society, the underlying mathematics - which won physicist Kenneth Wilson a Nobel Prize in 1982 - have far-reaching implications.
In the last few decades, scientists have found tipping behaviors in various natural environments, from locale-scale ponds and coral reefs to regional systems like the Sahara desert, which until 5,500 years ago was a fertile grassland, and perhaps even the Amazon basin.
Common to these examples is a type of transformation not described in traditional ideas of nature as existing in a static balance, with change occurring gradually. Instead, the systems seem to be dynamic, ebbing and flowing within a range of biological parameters.
Stress those parameters - with fast-rising temperatures, say, or a burst of nutrients - and systems are capable of sudden, feedback loop-fueled reconfiguration.
According to some researchers, that�s what happened when life�s diversity exploded in an eyeblink 540 million years ago, or much more recently when a glacier-chilled Earth became in a couple thousand years the temperate garden that cradled human civilization.
But while the Cambrian explosion and Holocene warming were sparked by natural, planet-wide changes to ocean chemistry and solar intensity, say Barnosky and colleagues, there's a new force to consider: 7 billion people who exert a combined influence usually associated with planetary processes.
Human activity now dominates 43 percent of Earth�s land surface and affects twice that area. One-third of all available fresh water is diverted to human use. A full 20 percent of Earth�s net terrestrial primary production, the sheer volume of life produced on land every year, is harvested for human purposes. Extinction rates compare to those recorded during the demise of dinosaurs and average temperatures will likely be higher in 2070 than at any point in human evolution.
Scientists informally call our current geological age the "Anthropocene," and to Barnosky's group this means we're strong enough to tip the planet, radically changing regional climates and ecologies.
"Everything that happened the last time around is happening now, only more of it," said Barnosky of the last ice age's end and ongoing changes to Earth's climate and biosphere. "I think the evidence makes it pretty clear that another critical transition or tipping point is very plausible within the next century."
Yet while Barnosky and colleagues write that the plausibility of a planetary shift is high, they say "considerable uncertainty remains about whether it is inevitable and, if so, how far in the future it may be." Other scientists echoed the caution.
"We have quite good evidence for the Earth having tipping elements. They can be very small, like a pond, or large like a monsoon system. Those we understand very well. But the bigger ones are harder to understand," said ecologist Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University, a tipping point research pioneer. Scheffer said he is "not so convinced" that a single, Earth-wide shift is imminent.
One important aspect of the new review, said ecologist Steve Carpenter of the University of Wisconsin, is its focus on changing land use patterns.
Most historical large-scale tips were apparently driven by changes in Earth's biogeochemistry, such as the bacterial oxygenation of primeval seas that afterwards could support multicellular life. But humans are rapidly changing local species compositions and ecosystem functions, causing small-scale changes that could combine and cascade into planet-wide shifts.
Brad Cardinale, an ecologist at the University of Wisconsin, said the science is suggestive but still not conclusive, likening the trajectory of research to that followed by chaos theory in the late 20th century.
"We discovered in mathematical models that chaos should exist and, if it did, it would have major implications for our ability to predict ecological changes on the planet. A few empirical case studies emerged to suggest chaos actually occurs in ecosystems. But the interpretation of some of these was controversial, and subsequent studies ultimately failed to show that chaos was the generality," he said.
Continued Cardinale, "Ten years from now, the Barnosky et al. paper will have one of two fates. We'll either look back and think this was a visionary warning about how people are changing the planet. Or we'll look back and say that state shifts was a 'sexy' idea that was over-sold and didn�t pan out. Only time will tell."
The pressing question, then, is one of risk analysis: Given incomplete but troubling information, what should people do? Barnosky and colleagues call for innovations and changes - more-efficient food production, fossil fuel alternatives, better ecosystem management and reduced population growth. Ellison hopes some disruptive change will cause a tipping point in human sustainability.
"These are admittedly huge tasks, but are vital if the goal of science and society is to steer the biosphere towards conditions we desire, rather than those that are thrust upon us unwittingly," wrote Barnosky and colleagues.
"There have been big, planetary shifts before," Barnosky said. "We can see it coming. That's the difference. The dinosaurs couldn't see it coming."
Lower 48 also experienced record warm year-to-date and twelve-month periods
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during May was 64.3F, 3.3F above the long-term average, making it the second warmest May on record. The month's high temperatures also contributed to the warmest spring, warmest year-to-date, and warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.
The spring season's (March-May) nationally-averaged temperature was 57.1F, 5.2�F above the 1901-2000 long-term average, surpassing the previous warmest spring (1910) by 2.0F.
Precipitation totals across the country were mixed during May, with the nation as a whole being drier than average. The nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.51 inches was 0.36 inch below average. The coastal Southeast received some drought relief when Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to the region late in the month.
Note: The May/Spring Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding some of the exceptional events from the month and season.
May 2012 Statewide Temperature (top) and Precipitation (bottom) ranks
Year-to-date average temperature (through May) for the 83 years on record at St. Louis, Missouri. 2012 in crimson. Please click for similar supplemental information for about 150 U.S. cities.
Month sets new mark for globally-averaged warmth over land surfaces
The globally-averaged temperature for May 2012 marked the second warmest May since record keeping began in 1880. May 2012 also marks the 36th consecutive May and 327th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
Most areas of the world experienced much warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, including nearly all of Europe, Asia, northern Africa, most of North America and southern Greenland. Only Australia, Alaska and parts of the western U.S.-Canadian border region were notably cooler than average.
With the dissipation of La Nina in April, ocean conditions in May were "ENSO neutral". According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50 percent chance that El Nino conditions will emerge during the second half of 2012.
May 2012 Blended Land & Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in °C
Year to Date 2012 Blended Land & Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in °C
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, from the May 2012 Global Snow & Ice Report
Climate Highlights June 2012
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/6
Earth
(The Operators Manual)
Please Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective with the July 2010 State of the Climate Report, NCDC transitioned to the new version (version 3b) of the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. ERSST.v3b is an improved extended SST reconstruction over version 2. For more information about the differences between ERSST.v3b and ERSST.v2 and to access the most current data, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
Temperature anomalies for June 2012 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot maps on the left provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset of land surface stations using a 1961�1990 base period. The dot maps on the right are a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). For the merged land surface and SST analysis, temperature anomalies with respect to the 1971-2000 average for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure�depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the June 2012 map�is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.
The average global temperature across land and oceans during June 2012 was 0.63C (1.13F) above the 20th century average of 15.5C (59.9F) and ranked as the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880. June 2012 also marks the 36th consecutive June and 328th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average June temperature was June 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985. It was the second warmest June in the Northern Hemisphere, behind only the record warmth of 2010. The Southern Hemisphere had its 12th warmest June on record.
The global land surface temperature for June was 1.07C (1.93F) above the 20th century average of 13.3C (55.9F), the warmest June on record. This is the second month in a row that the global land temperature was the warmest on record for that month.
The Northern Hemisphere average land temperature, where the majority of Earth's land is located, was record warmest for June. This makes three months in a row ' April, May, and June ' in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average.
The Southern Hemisphere land temperature was the 20th warmest on record.
Across the world's oceans, the June average global sea surface temperature was 0.47�C (0.85F) above the 20th century average of 16.4C (61.5F), the 10th warmest June on record. Ocean temperatures were notably below average in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and much higher than average in the northeast Atlantic and in the Labrador Sea near Greenland. The region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean where ENSO conditions are measured also trended higher than average in June. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch, and stated that there is an increased chance for El Ni�o beginning in July�September 2012.
June | Anomaly | Rank (out of 133 years) | Records | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | F | Year(s) | C | F | ||
Global | ||||||
Land | +1.07 +/- 0.13 | +1.93 +/- 0.23 | 1st Warmest | Warmest: 2012 | +1.07 | +1.93 |
133rd Coolest | Coolest: 1907 | -0.60 | -1.08 | |||
Ocean | +0.47 +/- 0.04 | +0.85 +/- 0.07 | 10th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.59 | +1.06 |
124th Coolest | Coolest: 1909, 1911 | -0.50 | -0.90 | |||
Ties: 2011 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.63 +/- 0.07 | +1.13 +/- 0.13 | 4th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.67 | +1.21 |
130th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.44 | -0.79 | |||
Northern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +1.30 +/- 0.14 | +2.34 +/- 0.25 | 1st Warmest | Warmest: 2012 | +1.30 | +2.34 |
133rd Coolest | Coolest: 1907 | -0.66 | -1.19 | |||
Ocean | +0.46 +/- 0.04 | +0.83 +/- 0.07 | 11th Warmest | Warmest: 2009 | +0.62 | +1.12 |
123rd Coolest | Coolest: 1910 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
Ties: 2001, 2011 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.78 +/- 0.10 | +1.40 +/- 0.18 | 2nd Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.80 | +1.44 |
132nd Coolest | Coolest: 1913 | -0.47 | -0.85 | |||
Southern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +0.47 +/- 0.11 | +0.85 +/- 0.20 | 20th Warmest | Warmest: 2005 | +1.05 | +1.89 |
114th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -1.00 | -1.80 | |||
Ocean | +0.48 +/- 0.04 | +0.86 +/- 0.07 | 10th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.60 | +1.08 |
124th Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.55 | -0.99 | |||
Ties: 2011 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.48 +/- 0.06 | +0.86 +/- 0.11 | 12th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.63 | +1.13 |
122nd Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.61 | -1.10 |
Following the dissipation of La Nina in April, record warmth over land during May and June and increasing ocean temperature anomalies pushed 2012 near the top 10 warmest status for the first half of the year. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January�June period was 0.52C (0.94F) above the 20th century average of 13.5C (56.3F), ranking as the 11th warmest such period on record. The greatest January-June warmth was observed over most of North America, southern Greenland, and most of Russia. The first half of 2012 was notably cooler than average across Alaska, Mongolia, and Australia.
Of note, the year-to-date global anomalies for 2012 have increased each month as the year has progressed and La Nina conditions waned - January: +0.35C (+0.65F); January-February: +0.37-C (+0.67-F); January-March: +0.39C (+0.70F); January-April: +0.46C (+0.83F); January-May: +0.50C (+0.90F), and JanuaryJune: +0.52C (+0.94F). The record for the warmest January-June was set in 2010, with a temperature that was 0.70C (1.26F) above average.
The January�June worldwide land surface temperature was 0.87C (1.57F ) above the 20th century average, marking the sixth warmest such period on record.
The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.39C (0.70F) above average and ranked as the 12th warmest such period on record. This was the warmest monthly departure from average since August 2010.
January�June | Anomaly | Rank (out of 133 years) | Records | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | F | Year(s) | C | F | ||
Global | ||||||
Land | +0.88 +/- 0.21 | +1.58 +/- 0.38 | 6th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +1.19 | +2.14 |
128th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -0.85 | -1.53 | |||
Ocean | +0.39 +/- 0.04 | +0.70 +/- 0.07 | 12th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.57 | +1.03 |
122nd Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.51 | -0.92 | |||
Land and Ocean | +0.52 +/- 0.09 | +0.94 +/- 0.16 | 11th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.70 | +1.26 |
123rd Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.50 | -0.90 | |||
Northern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +1.04 +/- 0.26 | +1.87 +/- 0.47 | 5th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +1.38 | +2.48 |
129th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -0.96 | -1.73 | |||
Ocean | +0.38 +/- 0.05 | +0.68 +/- 0.09 | 9th Warmest | Warmest: 2010 | +0.56 | +1.01 |
125th Coolest | Coolest: 1910 | -0.48 | -0.86 | |||
Ties: 2006 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.63 +/- 0.14 | +1.13 +/- 0.25 | 7th Warmest | Warmest: 2007 | +0.81 | +1.46 |
127th Coolest | Coolest: 1893 | -0.59 | -1.06 | |||
Southern Hemisphere | ||||||
Land | +0.46 +/- 0.16 | +0.83 +/- 0.29 | 17th Warmest | Warmest: 2005 | +0.95 | +1.71 |
117th Coolest | Coolest: 1917 | -0.85 | -1.53 | |||
Ties: 1993, 2001 | ||||||
Ocean | +0.41 +/- 0.04 | +0.74 +/- 0.07 | 13th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.60 | +1.08 |
121st Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
Ties: 1999 | ||||||
Land and Ocean | +0.42 +/- 0.07 | +0.76 +/- 0.13 | 13th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.65 | +1.17 |
121st Coolest | Coolest: 1911 | -0.55 | -0.99 | |||
Ties: 1988, 1992, 1999 |
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2012 from the weekly SST page.
The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during June 2012 varied significantly around the world.
Scientists at Nasa admitted they thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days
The Greenland ice sheet melted at a faster rate this month than at any other time in recorded history, with virtually the entire ice sheet showing signs of thaw.
The rapid melting over just four days was captured by three satellites. It has stunned and alarmed scientists, and deepened fears about the pace and future consequences of climate change.
In a statement posted on Nasa's website on Tuesday, scientists admitted the satellite data was so striking they thought at first there had to be a mistake.
"This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?" Son Nghiem of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena said in the release.
He consulted with several colleagues, who confirmed his findings. Dorothy Hall, who studies the surface temperature of Greenland at Nasa's space flight centre in Greenbelt, Maryland, confirmed that the area experienced unusually high temperatures in mid-July, and that there was widespread melting over the surface of the ice sheet.
Climatologists Thomas Mote, at the University of Georgia, and Marco Tedesco, of the City University of New York, also confirmed the melt recorded by the satellites.
However, scientists were still coming to grips with the shocking images on Tuesday. "I think it's fair to say that this is unprecedented," Jay Zwally, a glaciologist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, told the Guardian.
The set of images released by Nasa on Tuesday show a rapid thaw between 8 July and 12 July. Within that four-day period, measurements from three satellites showed a swift expansion of the area of melting ice, from about 40% of the ice sheet surface to 97%.
Scientists attributed the sudden melt to a heat dome, or a burst of
unusually warm air, which hovered over Greenland from 8 July until 16
July.
Greenland had returned to more typical summer conditions by 21 or
22 July, Mote told the Guardian.
But he said the event, while exceptional, should be viewed alongside
other compelling evidence of climate change, including on the ground
in Greenland.
"What we are seeing at the highest elevations may be a sort of sign of
what is going on across the ice sheet," he said. "At lower elevations
on the ice sheet, we are seeing earlier melting, melting later in the
season, and more frequent melting over the last 30 years and that is
consistent of what you would expect with a warming climate."
Zwally, who has made almost yearly trips to the Greenland ice sheet for more than three decades, said he had never seen such a rapid melt.
About half of Greenland's surface ice sheet melts during a typical summer, but Zwally said he and other scientists had been recording an acceleration of that melting process over the last few decades. This year his team had to rebuild their camp, at Swiss Station, when the snow and ice supports melted.
He said he had never seen such a rapid melt over his three decades of
nearly yearly trips to the Greenland ice sheet. He was most surprised
to see indications in the images of melting even around the area of
Summit Station, which is about two miles above sea level.
It was the second unusual event in Greenland in a matter of days, after an iceberg the size of Manhattan broke off from the Petermann glacier. But the rapid melt was viewed as more serious.
"If you look at the 8 July image that might be the maximum extent of warming you would see in the summer," Zwally noted. "There have been periods when melting might have occurred at higher elevations briefly - maybe for a day or so - but to have it cover the whole of Greenland like this is unknown, certainly in the time of satellite records."
Jason Box, a glaciologist at Ohio State University who returned on
Tuesday from a research trip to Greenland, had been predicting a big
melt year for 2012, because of earlier melt and a decline in summer
snow flurries.
He said the heat dome was not necessarily a one-off. "This is now the
seventh summer in a row with this pattern of warm air being lifted up
onto the ice sheet on the summer months," he said. "What is surprising
is just how persistent this circulation anomaly is. Here it is back
again for the seventh year in a row in the summer bringing hot, warm
air onto the ice sheet."
He also said surfaces at higher elevation, now re-frozen, could be
more prone to future melting, because of changes in the structure of
the snow crystals. Box expected melting to continue at lower
elevations.
About half of Greenland's surface ice sheet melts during a typical
summer, but Zwally said he and other scientists had been recording an
acceleration of that melting process over the past few decades. This
year his team had to rebuild their camp, at Swiss Station, when the
snow and ice supports melted.
Lora Koenig, another Goddard glaciologist, told Nasa similar rapid melting occurs about every 150 years. But she warned there were wide-ranging potential implications from this year's thaw.
"If we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome." she told Nasa.
The most immediate consequences are sea level rise and a further warming of the Arctic. In the centre of Greenland, the ice remains up to 3,000 metres deep. On the edges, however, the ice is much, much thinner and has been melting into the sea.
The melting ice sheet is a significant factor in sea level rise. Scientists attribute about one-fifth of the annual sea level rise, which is about 3mm every year, to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
In this instance of this month's extreme melting, Mote said there was evidence of a heat dome over Greenland: or an unusually strong ridge of warm air.
The dome is believed to have moved over Greenland on 8 July, lingering until 16 July.
By Philip Bump
Lake Superior is the largest and northernmost Great Lake, containing almost three times as much water as Lake Michigan, the second largest in volume. In fact, it contains more water than the other Great Lakes combined. Which should mean that it�s cold.
As the above chart shows, based on the 30-year average, the lake�s average water temperature should be in the mid-50s. But thanks to scant lake ice cover this past winter, along with a rare March heat wave and warmer-than-average weather since then, the lake began warming earlier than normal, and that warming has kept right on going. Wintertime ice cover on the Great Lakes was the lowest observed since such records began in 1980.
The chart itself is pretty amazing. At no point in 2012 has the surface temperature been below average, and it�s now spiking well above. Temperatures today range from 70 degrees at the southern shore to 60 at the northern-most points.
Muller co-founded the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) team two years ago in order to independently assess what he viewed as questionable evidence of global warming. In a series of papers published last year, BEST presented their statistical analysis of 1.6 billion temperature reports spanning the last 200 years, controlling for possible biases in the data that are often cited by skeptics as reasons to doubt the reality of global warming.
Their analysis indicated that global warming is real - that the average global land temperature has risen by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) since 1750, including 1.5 degrees F (0.9 degrees Celsius) in the past 50 years. The numbers closely agree with the findings of past studies by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA and others; but finally, they were rigorous enough to satisfy Muller.
"The carbon dioxide curve gives a better match than anything else we've tried," he wrote Saturday (July 28) in a New York Times editorial. "Its magnitude is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect - extra warming from trapped heat radiation. These facts don't prove causality and they shouldn't end skepticism, but they raise the bar: To be considered seriously, an alternative explanation must match the data at least as well as carbon dioxide does."
By comparison, the study found that natural variability, including variations in the solar cycle, El Nino events and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (shifts in sea-surface temperatures that run in cycles), could have accounted for no more than 0.17 degrees Celsius of temperature variation - either warming or cooling - during the past 150 years. These natural forces are much subtler than the warming seen during the same time period.
In fact, the new results indicate that humans have been warming the Earth for longer than climate scientists previously thought certain. "In its 2007 report, the [United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans," Muller wrote. "It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C. consensus statement, that the warming before 1956 could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial part of the more recent warming could be natural."
Not so, according to the new findings; variations in solar activity have a negligible effect on Earth's temperature. The handiwork is almost all our own.
"I embarked on this analysis to answer questions that, to my mind, had not been answered," Muller wrote. "I hope that the Berkeley Earth analysis will help settle the scientific debate regarding global warming and its human causes. Then comes the difficult part: agreeing across the political and diplomatic spectrum about what can and should be done."
Drought expands to cover nearly 63% of the Lower 48; wildfires consume 2 million acres
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6F, 3.3F above the 20th century average, marking the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the nation. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4F. The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.
Precipitation totals were mixed during July, with the contiguous U.S. as a whole being drier than average. The nationally averaged precipitation total of 2.57 inches was 0.19 inch below average. Near-record dry conditions were present for the middle of the nation, with the drought footprint expanding to cover nearly 63 percent of the Lower 48, according the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Note: The July Monthly Climate Report for the United States has several pages of supplemental information and data regarding some of the exceptional events from the month and season.
August 2012 USA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/8
Global
The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for August
2012 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C
(60.1°F). This is the fourth warmest August since records began in 1880.
http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=26490&PN=22
September 2012 USA
The average contiguous U.S.
temperature during September was 66.3°F, 1.5°F above the 20th
century average, the 18th
warmest such month on record. September 2012 marks the 16th consecutive
month with above-average temperatures for the Lower 48.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/9
Global
The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for
September 2012 tied with 2005 as the warmest September on record, at 0.67°C
(1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F). Records
began in 1880.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/9
October 2012 USA
The average
temperature for the contiguous U.S. during October was 53.9°F,
just 0.3°F below the long-term average, ending a 16-month streak of
above-average temperatures for the lower 48 that began in June 2011.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/10
Global
The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for October
2012 tied with 2008 as the fifth warmest October on record, at 0.63°C (1.13°F)
above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). Records began in
1880.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10
November 2012 USA
The average
temperature for the contiguous U.S. during November was 44.1°F,
2.1°F above the 20th century average, tying 2004 as the 20th warmest
November on record.
We've never had to start watering our lawn here in Colorado until May, but our lawn was drying up in mid April. We usually quit mowing by October 1st, but we mowed just before Halloween for what we thought was the last time, but then had to mow just before Thanksgiving again! In June our home was ruined by the worst hail storm I've ever been in. We had to get new shingles, new garage doors, exterior paint, 1 new window, and 4 screens.
The globally-averaged temperature for November 2012 marked the fifth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880. November 2012 also marks the 36th consecutive November and 333rd consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
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