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gloom & doom (part 2)

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2017 at 12:49am
Politics is no fun when reality does not bend for the politicians. https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/11/24/from-an-open-internet-back-to-the-dark-ages-2/ Also in "the free-west" internet-news is getting under political-market-control. The public has to be protected from "fake news" and the politicians decide on what fake-news is. 

Of course global warming is "very fake" according to most politicians. Those politicians-paid by "oil-and-arms" at best talk about "controleble climate change" "effecting not us but future generations in 2100". 

Arctic-news has been following global warming for years and with knowledge. In their models things are going so far as they expected, calculated. (Not like the IPCC which left out many "uncertain" factors like water vapor, methane etc.). According to Arctic News-based on NASA data- october 2017 did see a global temperature rise of 1,5C since pre-industrial time (=1880 ? 1750 would be more correct but then we would be even more be "out of control"). A.N. expects the 2C above maybe even in 2021. 

In their models of accumulating global warming factors we may have 10C+ by 2026. (But of course that is all fake news-trust your politician-they never lie.)

In their models they take in the account that 93,4% of the warming went INTO the ocean. Taking measurements on the surface is a big underestimate. DJ-If indeed global warming is going exponential-sealevelrise will go exponential as well. There are lots of indicators for that from Greenland, Antarctica, Himalaya. It does not realy matter if the 10C+ is in 2026 or 2030. Life will have stopped much earlier.

https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva is expecting a "nuclear winter" . With the very limited knowledge I have I do not believe that nuclear winters can safe live on this planet. But it will end all with the push of a few buttons. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2017 at 4:54am
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/11/24/a-radioactive-plume-thats-clouded-in-secrecy/



Thwaites and Pine Island sprawl across a plain over 150-miles-long, and inland widen to a reserve of ice two-miles-thick that’s about the size of Texas, according to Holthaus, who says there’s no doubt the ice will melt. The question is not if, but how soon. Should the two glaciers collapse, every shoreline and coastal city could be inundated with water, leaving hundreds of millions of climate refugees homeless. And those events could happen in 20 to 50 years – too fast for humans to adapt.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2017 at 12:13am
Even based on IPCC-data Dutch Met Office does"not rule out" a sealevelrise of up to 1.8meter by 2100. 

IPCC works with models. When you follow https://www.facebook.com/paul.beckwith.9, https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva you know there are very serious flaws in the IPCC data. In their models they introduce not existing technology to get CO2 out of the atmosphere, ignore methane and water vapor. 

When even with those incomplete data a sealevelrise of almost 2 meters in stead of less than 1 meter is a serious consideration more realistic scenarios (not the "political"IPCC lies) may be closer to "doomsday scenarios".  

There is a supervolcano under Antarctic ice. Major seismic activity in polar regions can be expected which will push large chunks of ice into the ocean (causing tsunami's). Those geological events can not be put in models-there is not enough data. But the risks for abrupt events may be far greater than any "politics" is willing to deal with. 






(And so much more-indications that climate change is getting faster and more extreme. "Politics" is working for oil companies, military, banks. Only a few countries are willing to see the dangers but those countries may be under the sea within a few years.)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2017 at 10:15pm
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/12/fires-threaten-santa-barbara.html Is this wildfire a "negative feedback" in the climate change process"? Part of http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html ?

In this "exponential" model temperatures will get 10C above the pre-industrial level by 2026. When you would have to translate that to sealevel rise you may have to think of "super-exponential"(explosive) models. 

In an exponential model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth you get the hockey-stick model. In a given period growth doubles. For example; sealevelrise would be 2mm in year 1, 4mm in year 2, 8mm-year 3, 1,6cm-year4, 3,2-year5 etc. Already very dramatic-only "years" are partly human ideas. 

What I think of "super-exponential" model would be double growth but time would halve. So year 1 would be 2mm growth of sealevelrise, but 6 moths later it would be 4mm, to get to 8mm 3 months after that, 1,6 cm only 1,5 months later (cummulative in 1 year and 10,5 months would bring "growth" of 2+4+8+16mm=3cm with another 3,2 cm on its way in just a little more than 3 weeks). 

The "Thomas Fire" will destroy wood and give way to a desert. With methane CO2 and other green house gas going up fast the "global ice conditions" are worsening by the hour. Freezing-point is a hard turning point.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2017 at 10:59pm
https://patternsofmeaning.com/2017/12/19/what-will-it-really-take-to-avoid-collapse/

Along with their warning, the scientists list a dozen or so examples of the kind of actions that could turn humanity’s trajectory around. These include indisputably necessary strategies such as halting the conversion of native habitats into farmland; restoring and rewilding ecologies; phasing out fossil fuel subsidies; and promoting dietary shifts toward plant-based foods. With the future of humanity at stake, why aren’t we already doing these things? What will it really take for our civilization to change course and save itself from destruction?

Ignoring climate breakdown

We can begin to answer that simply by looking at the media’s reception to this warning. With fifteen thousand scientists—including Jane Goodall, E. O. Wilson, and James Hansen—declaring a potential catastrophe at hand, you might think this would make headlines everywhere. Think again. While it led to a few short articles in select publications around the world, with the one commendable exception of CNN, it was virtually ignored by American mainstream media.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2017 at 6:03am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

https://patternsofmeaning.com/2017/12/19/what-will-it-really-take-to-avoid-collapse/

Along with their warning, the scientists list a dozen or so examples of the kind of actions that could turn humanity’s trajectory around. These include indisputably necessary strategies such as halting the conversion of native habitats into farmland; restoring and rewilding ecologies; phasing out fossil fuel subsidies; and promoting dietary shifts toward plant-based foods. With the future of humanity at stake, why aren’t we already doing these things? What will it really take for our civilization to change course and save itself from destruction?

Ignoring climate breakdown

We can begin to answer that simply by looking at the media’s reception to this warning. With fifteen thousand scientists—including Jane Goodall, E. O. Wilson, and James Hansen—declaring a potential catastrophe at hand, you might think this would make headlines everywhere. Think again. While it led to a few short articles in select publications around the world, with the one commendable exception of CNN, it was virtually ignored by American mainstream media.



Thanks, DJ!!  

Nothing will happen in the USA to abate climate disasters, despite all of the evidence to the contrary.  

It is interesting, as the states most impacted (Oklahoma, Texas, Florida etc.) are solidly Republican voting states.  

By the time that these populations wake up to the truth, it will be far too late.  In fact, I believe that it already is too late, no matter how much energy/money is thrown at the problem. 

Sad.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2017 at 10:44am
Charles, It is not only the US that is failing to deal with the coming climate disasters-most "developed" countries simply fail to do enough-in my opinion.

I agree that it is too late to avoid major problems. How fast things get how bad is a big question. 

From +10C by 2026 (no life left) to +2 meter sealevelrise by 2100 are the two extremes. I tend to believe the worst case scenario may be very realistic-we will have already much larger problems by 2020-in wildfires, flooding, hurricanes, extreme weather, droughts etc-than the already very big problems we have this year. 

What action could be effective and by whom is another question-I believe eating no meat, stop using fossil fuels-as much as possible-could have serious effects-but much more-in CO2. methane etc. reduction is needed. It could turn out that-eventhough people vote stupid-as consumers they may be willing to take the right steps ?
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2017 at 12:37am
DJ-Two alarming messages from Hal Turner;

1-http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/u-s-national-news/1853-nuclear-terrorism-on-new-year-s-eve-denver-and-las-vegas-said-to-be-locations One or more nuclear attacks on the US (false flag or not) could push the world into (faster) chaos and collapse

2-http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1852-chinese-ships-caught-illegally-selling-oil-to-north-korea ending with Hal Turner claiming US plans a war (proberbly) before march 20. 

DJ-I do not agree with Hal Turner on most issues but in international news he may have some credit. I believe that he was correct, at superstation 95, on Saudi-Turkey(-US) plans to invade Syria twice. Proberbly one of the reasons it did not happen was that the news got out-so the surprise element was gone. (Other reasons could be disagreement between Turkey and Israel-KSA and Turkey not agree on military plans-Saudi Arabia had to push thru via Jordan and/or Iraq to reach Syria.)

At present there is a very major conflict between the US and Russia/China. The conflicts in Syria, Iraq. Ukraine, Libya and Korea (maybe also Pakistan-India) are part of the bigger conflict. The end of the US-petro dollar is the end of US being the global power. 

War will only worsen the global crisis. We-as humans already face a global climate crisis-with very likely-temperatures (and sealevelrise) going exponential. 

The US may be working on a war-plan for North Korea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_and_awe "fire and fury" will be part of this plan.

Two scenario's

1 Very limited, Russia and China-AND NK-prewarned but unable/not willing to stop it. Missiles at NK energy facilities-infra-structure. Very limited loss of human life (unless NK chooses to react with military action).

2 Large scale-non nuclear-meant to make NK "go knock-out", risks is very high this scenario will not do the damage it is meant to do. NK military units may be able without central command from dug-in positions. Dams could flood Seoul, sleeper cells around the world could cause severe (strategic) damage. (China and Russia may see such an attack as an attack on their countries-may intervene in NK to try to control the conflict as much as possible. Also in other area's conflict could escalate-Israel attacking Iran etc.)

There are several "hot-blobs" in the oceans-making 2018 proberbly warmer and with more hurricanes/extreme weather than 2017. We need to deal with climate change before it deals with us !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2017 at 12:47pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-29/us-recorded-15-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-2017


Of course the biggest disaster around the globe is failing corrupt politicians working for the big companies and their shareholders-not for the wellbeing of the people...

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.world-ced.t2anom The Arctic may see 5c above "normal" we here in the Netherlands could have the warmest New Year ever....
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2018 at 6:35am
https://kevinhester.live/2018/01/09/oil-giants-admit-to-a-5c-temperature-increase-being-baked-in-but-no-one-else-will/ (based on http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bp-shell-oil-global-warming-5-degree-paris-climate-agreement-fossil-fuels-temperature-rise-a8022511.html)

Oil Giants admit to a 5C Temperature Increase being baked in but no one else will!

Posted on January 9, 2018 by Kevin Hester  1 Comment

“Oil giants Shell and BP are planning for global temperatures to rise as much as 5°C by the middle of the century. The level is more than double the upper limit committed to by most countries in the world under the Paris Climate Agreement, which both companies publicly support.”
I believe a temperature increase of 5C and more will occur much, much sooner than mid-century. This is clearly an extinction event for most if not all complex life on planet earth.
In my May 2015 Oral Submission to the N.Z. Ministry of Environment, I pointed out that both the IEA and Shell Petroleum admit that close to 5C is baked in but none of the large NGO’s nor the global Green Party’s nor their networks are prepared to face the reality of the crisis. I received zero feedback from the Ministry minions but a standing ovation from the concerned members of the public at the hearing process. My oral presentation is embedded in the above hyperlink:
According to the conservative blogger Joe Romm at Think Progress the planet may have warmed 5C in 13 years once before;
“PETM shocker: When CO2 Levels Doubled 55 Million Years Ago, Earth May Have Warmed 9F In 13 Years  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nRf2RTqANg 5C+ National Geographic

DJ; This tends to an exponential model. Extreme weather-events happening now give an indication on what to expect. Defrozen virus, bacteria etc. other health risks will increase due to climate change.

The best "we" can do is to try to slow down the proces.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2018 at 1:09pm
https://www.rt.com/news/416315-storm-netherlands-people-flying/ strongest storm since 1990

Extreme weather events do increase-may occur more often and much stronger. So far at least 10 people killed by this storm in Europe. (And a lot of damage-also on infrastructure, railroads mostly)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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