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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

gloom & doom

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 12 2016 at 8:53am
From Sam Carana on his facebook-page (11th april 2016):

With El Niño still going strong, temperatures look set to soar over the coming months over the Northern Hemisphere at large and over the Arctic in particular.

This forecast for April 12, 2016, shows temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale over most of Greenland and Baffin Bay, while the Arctic as a whole is hit by a temperature anomaly of ~5°C (9°F).

Furthermore, ocean temperatures are currently very high. These high temperatures, together with the poor condition of the sea ice, make that chances are that the sea ice will be largely gone by September 2016.

Sea ice acts as a buffer, absorbing heat and keeping the temperature of the water at freezing point. Without such a buffer, further heat will instead make that the temperature of the water will rise rapidly. Furthermore, less sea ice means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and more sunlight instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.

Warm water reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can penetrate sediments that can contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas, triggering abrupt release of methane in gigantic quantities, escalating into runaway warming, and subsequent destruction and extinction at massive scale.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan at http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/plan.html

From the post 'Record Arctic Warming', at:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/…/record-arctic-warming.html


a reaction from Rob de Laet on FB:

something is wrong in the ice pack in the Davis strait, if you look at the ice distribution. Two possibilities IMHO or a mix thereof: 1. a fluke in the system b. a huge outflow of ice from that strait in recent days. I do not know if you have seen my comments that almost none seems to have noticed and that was the immense activity in that strait with +15c anomalies on the Greenland side and -15 on the Canadian side triggering 150 km/h winds, huge waves and which actually resulted in an unnoticed hurricane which quickly lost strenght but dumped snow in Ireland. It is strange that this was not noticed at all. I asked Sam, but he has not come back on it yet.


see also : https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/warm-southerly-winds-gust-at-hurricane-force-over-greenland-in-staggering-early-season-heatwave-temperatures-now-hitting-up-to-41-degrees-f-above-average-at-summit/

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 12 2016 at 11:31pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/12/the-greenland-summer-melt-season-just-started-in-april/

In other words, a Greenland melt season that usually starts as May rolls into June and has never initiated before May 5th just began on April 11th of 2016. That’s 24 days ahead of the previous record set only six years ago and more than a month and a half ahead of the typical melt start. In other words — way too early. But in a rapidly heating world where monthly temperatures have now exceeded a range of 1.5 C above 1880s levels, we could well expect Greenland melts to begin earlier, end later, and encompass more and more of the ice sheet surface at peak melt during July.

(Record early start to Greenland’s ‘Summer’ melt season occurred on April 11, 2016 according to reports from DMI’s Polar Portal.)

Yesterday’s new record early melt start occurred as extraordinarily warm temperatures in the range of 20-40 degrees Fahrenheit above average swept over southern, central and western Greenland. This flood of extremely warm temperatures for Greenland was accompanied by heavy rains and strong winds — gusting to gale or even hurricane force in some locations. In some areas, rain fell over the ice sheet itself. As recently as midday Tuesday, Dr. Jason Box — a prominent Greenland researcher — tweeted a report from a friend in Nuuk that the city was “close to drowning in water caused by rain and snow melt.”

Today, temperatures for the whole of Greenland — a 1.7 million square kilometer island containing enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 20 feet should it all melt — were measuring as high as 10.17 C above average (more than 18 F above average) with readings over much of northern and central Greenland spiking over 20 C (36 F) above normal (1980-2010) ranges. So it’s likely that Monday’s record early 12 percent surface melt will extend and possibly expand on through today (April 12).

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/12/1514129/-The-temperature-currently-in-Kangerlussuaq-Greenland-is-63F?detail=facebook

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2016 at 3:47am
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA  Climate Reanalyzer (University of Maine) expect up to 20 degrees+ Celsius from the norm for Greenland, Siberia, North Canada. This means permafrost will start release of methane. 

For the coming week most of Greenland will stay below freezing. But temperatures are this extreme-2016 could see a very large increase of land-ice melt resulting in sharp increase in sea-level rise. 

"Rivers in the sky" did bring floods to Texas, hail to Saudi Arabia. Flooding due to rain and sealevel rise, extreme storms, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves are all on their way. 

Western Europe, Eastern US/Canada may get saved for the worst coming months by the cold meltwater from Greenland as a top-layer in the North Atlantic. 

The jet-stream may bring "very extreme weather"all the way to the Arctic. "Climate-chaos" is beyond most of the worst-case scenario's. 

https://robertscribbler.com/, http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/ and several climatologists on facebook (Paul Beckwith, Sam Carana, MHHensel, Kevin Hester etc.) can give a picture of what is happening. Guy McPherson http://guymcpherson.com/forum/index.php also informative. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2016 at 9:44pm
The Arctic is melting. Large parts of the Arctic region could get above freezing temperatures. Even Greenland is "warm"! (Although most of the up to 2 miles thick landice will remain frozen-if that melts we would see a 7 meter sea level rise.) This Arctic heat wave is pushing cold air towards western Europe. 


In Asia some regions are seeing extreme record heat waves, above 110 F/40C in parts of India, Laos etc. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2016 at 10:59pm
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/forecasts/#WORLD-CED

The northern hemisphere is much to warm. That will bring more rain (and snow in some area's), more wind. The combination of warmth-sealevelrise, more wind and rain means more flooding. 

On the longer term how will the Arctic be able to cool down in the 2016/17 winter ? It looks like a lot of seaice may be gone-now the northern part of the globe is heading into summer. Water and methane absorp heat. The only main reservoir of "cold" is Greenland when much of the sea-ice gone. 

The Arctic is surrounded by land. Land is warming up, the oceans are warming up. The atmosphere (with more CO2 and methane etc.) is warming up. After september a decrease of sun-heat and the ice on Greenland will have very limited capability to cool down the Arctic. 

In general warmer oceans will increase melt also in the Antarctic. Sea-ice is keeping land-ice in place. But with a lot of sea-ice melting land-ice slides into the oceans (or is blown into the oceans by stronger winds) further increasing sealevel rise. 

Volcanic eruptions, more sun blocking dust in the atmosphere, will have some influence on global temperature rise. But CO2 and methane levels are going up vertical almost=temperatures and sealevel rise going up "very strong" .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2016 at 2:47am
Fracking causes earthquakes. The US "energy-revolution" is not only causing earthquakes but also large methane release. The EPA "choose to work" with global warming numbers for methane for a 100-year time frame. But more realistic, one year term-methane can keep up as much as 105 times heat the same number CO2 can do. Methane is the motor behind global warming. 

US foreign policy-in this article  http://billmoyers.com/story/global-warmings-terrifying-new-chemistry/ linked to Mrs H. Clinton, was on energy bases. US oil companies would be allowed to "frack all over the planet". The article mentions Bulgaria, Romania, Papua New Guinea, Cambodia...

Recent findings link fracking to methane release. A Canadian study finds that leakage can not be stopped. Global warming is already causing methane release from a.o. the Arctic. 

 http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/04/more-and-more-extreme-weather.html Climate-chaos is further escalating. With cyclones, heatwaves, extensive rains etc. it is becoming a massive killer. 

Because CO2 ends up in the oceans-oceans get more acid-killing plankton. Thereby decreasing the oxygen-production from sea life and sealife itself. The 20% humans in the "richest countries" consume a 100% of what the Earth can produce. 

With CO2, methane, decreased O2 production via plants, increased heat, the air quality is dropping. This will become deadly in coming heatwaves. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2016 at 1:59pm
Human extinction risks: people more likely to die in an extinction event than a car crash


htps://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/human-extinction-risks-people-more-likely-to-die-in-an-extinction-event-than-a-car-crash/

pandemics listed as the biggest overall threat
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2016 at 9:14pm
http://www.bitsofscience.org/real-global-temperature-trend-climate-system-thermal-inertia-7086/

All in all we can be sure about one thing: the thermometer does not show the full extent of what we’re doing – not yet, not for decades to come. If we would stop emitting completely as per tomorrow net atmospheric warming would still continue for some 37.5 years, according to the 2005 study – that is, if CO2 concentrations stayed constant afterwards (additional CO2 is cumulative).

An additional problem is we have not managed to lower CO2 emissions over the last 37.5 years. To the contrary – we’ve almost doubled them. Hansen’ research group calculated (in 2005) this means we would still have 0.6 degrees Celsius of inevitable warming, once anthropogenic (additional) CO2 emissions stopped.

(DJ: this article only looks at CO2, the story is much more complicated. Methane is on the rise, warmer oceans, less snow and ice also have their effects. Volcanic eruptions can have a cooling effect (sometimes, partly) but for a short time. Maybe bigger storms (due to more heat in the atmosphere) will bring more dust-blocking sun-heat ? But also more dust to sun-reflecting surfaces at the poles etc. There maybe unknown factors in these complex calculations-but for now the outcome is very bad for life on Earth.

Climatologists are book-keepers of our enviroment, we may be running out of credit.)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2016 at 12:03pm

If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity


http://peakoil.com/generalideas/if-something-is-going-to-destroy-humanity


"If the H5N1 bird flu became easily transmissible between humans, by some estimates, it could kill as many as 1.7 billion"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2016 at 10:45pm
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/10/08/2750191/petm-co2-levels-doubled-55-million-years-ago-global-temperatures-jumped/ 

Warming 5 degrees celsius in 13 years makes an average of 0.3846 degrees per year. For 2016 the expected rise will be around 0.24 degrees. 

But with methane and CO2 still going up we will have a larger temperature increase than 5 degrees celsius the coming years. CO2, methane are "going vertical" in the graphs-statistics so temperature and sealevelrise will rise very sharp. 

Science does not know all there is to know-maybe somewere in the process a "counterbalacing" action can cool down the climate ? 

After the "PETM" (Paleocen-Eocene Thermal Maximum) temperatures dropped again and life could find new ways. Today the nuclear poison reservoirs (in plants, weapons etc.) may make that return impossible. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 12 2016 at 9:20pm
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Sealevelrise in one year was 3,42 mm and going up. By starting below zero NASA comes to a temperature rise of 0.87 degrees.  http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

A look at climate reanalyzer for Greenland http://cci-reanalyzer.org/forecasts/#GRNLND-LEA3 gives a look at what to expect in land-ice melt. In Antarctica sea-ice is giving way http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87859&src=eoa-iotd&src=share and land-ice may move into the sea.


Expect more extreme weather; first "normal extreme" more strong storms, extreme rain etc, but increasing "stronger than ever" storms, hotter than ever, dryer than ever etc. Wildfires have been around all the time, but the extreme will be in more and larger fires. 

Climate chaos should be the main news. The media fail.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2016 at 11:54pm
http://allafrica.com/stories/201605180286.html Heatwaves, drought, extreme weather further on the increase. 

Of course there is a difference between a 8 degrees (C) temperature-rise from -12 to -4 or -4 to +4 C. http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2016/05/fears-about-east-antarcticas-biggest.html With the Arctic getting as good as free of ice in september, increase in melt in landice in Greenland patterns seen in the Arctic show up in the Antarctic. http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2016/05/fears-about-east-antarcticas-biggest.html

Sealevelrise used to be less than 1cm per year but abrupt climate change could bring us very high melt of landice in Greenland, glaciers moving into the ocean (even when winter in the southern hemisphere, the seawater is simply to hot !) in tha Antarctic. 

Methane and CO2 release both trapping heat are rising sharply (permafrost being defrozen) this will push global temperature even higher. 

When the full impact of this climate-crisis gets "main stream" it can bring the end of "the world as we know it", economic collapse, wars, etc.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2016 at 4:38am
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/05/19/the-glaciers-will-melt-the-sea-will-rise-up/ CO2 levels fitting for present sealevel would be around 250 parts per million. At present the CO2 level is above 400 (if you translate methane into CO2 effect some come to 485 ppm). Fitting for 400 ppm CO2 would be a sealevel several meters higher than at present looking at historic data. 

Exponential growth of sealevelrise could mean 50% growth (at avarage) per year so say
2010 sealevel rise =0.2 cm
2011 would be 0.3
2012 would be 0.45 (cumulitave 0.2 from 2010 + 0.3 2011 and 0.45 2012=0.95cm)
2013 would be 0.675 (cum. 0.95 + 0.675= 1.625 cm) etc. 
2014=1.0125
2015=1.51875
2016=2.278125
2017=3.4171875
2018=5.12578125
2019=7.688671875

resulting in a sealevelrise of more than 22 cm in this decade (and exploding further in the future by 2030 in one year sealevelrise would be more than twelve meters)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2016 at 10:37pm
Good presentation on the math of runaway warming https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-cVI1Mao9U

We all-as humans-have a responsibility. Pointing the finger at the big fossil companies does not help, discussing our ecological footprint may be wiser. 

If "market price"excludes many enviromental costs and leaves those costs for the taxpayers something is wrong in how our economy is working. When these enviromental costs are that extreme-unpayable for next generations-is the "market price" an excuse for "profits" for a happy few on the short term while putting costs for all-much higher than any profit-on the next generation and the poor ? Is this what we consider civilization ? 

Do we want a "rat-race society" with a few winners and the rest as "losers" going high speed into a dead-end street ? Or do we want a "share-society" with chances for all, without excluding people ? 

It looks like not avian-flu is going to kill us all but a greed-pandemic. Wether through war or climate change, unless we change our behavior. We could have paradise when we stop picking the wrong fruits !

A 2010 presentation of what is kept out of the IPCC-models https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXj-MpuuBPc part 1 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3nucLBioNk part 2.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 28 2016 at 8:42am
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

Humans did raise temperature 10 degrees Celsius above the natural baseline. (Changes by Observed increase =2C Emissions =3C (masking warming that would be there if humans did not put reflecting dust in the atmosphere), 5C=Future, coming decade, build in warming. 



 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 12 2016 at 1:56am
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/08062016/greenland-arctic-record-melt-jet-stream-wobbly-global-warming-climate-change?utm_content=buffer62f60&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer



To much warm air, seawater, is moving towards the Arctic and Antarctic. With co2, methane and other greenhouse gas increasing further global temperatures will increase. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings/iasi/m2/t1/D1/mr_co2.093.gif. Evere 1 degree C temperature rise means increase of rain(and snow) by 7% and lightning by 10%.

How much the sealevel will rise in what time-frame seems hard to predict. Temperatures once did rise 5 degrees celsius in 13 years, but it seems that the rise at present is larger faster. 

There are several developments in co2-reduction that may be able, maybe, to get climate change under control. But for the short term, the coming months, more rain, heat, drought, storm and other extreme weather is on its way. 

Looking at Europe the European STorm Forecast EXperiment-(ESTOFEX) archives can give an indication how the climate is getting out of control http://www.estofex.org/. Extreme heat and drought continues in India and Pakistan. Sometimes slipping north into Siberia, almost reaching the Arctic. The US may be expecting extreme heat (above 40C/100F) in the coming week as well, from California towards Texas. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 13 2016 at 8:10am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/10/greenland-witnessed-its-highest-june-temperature-ever-recorded-on-thursday/




Proberbly one of the issues at the July-NATO top in Warsaw (remember the Warsaw-pact from the Sowjet Union period ?) will be Ukraine and Georgia and how to get those former Sovjet states in NATO. The Orlando mass-murder could be used as an excuse for further action against IS in Syria. The west is putting more groundforces there https://southfront.org/western-states-amass-forces-in-syria/#disqus_thread. Also more war in Ukraine. https://southfront.org/weapons-for-the-osce-russia-wants-to-calm-the-situation-in-eastern-ukraine/.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 13 2016 at 6:00pm

Alaska just had its warmest spring on record – ‘The temperature difference is huge’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/06/alaska-just-had-its-warmest-spring-on.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2016 at 6:23am

UN Weather Agency Warns of More Global Warming in May


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/weather-agency-warns-global-warming-39839572


we've set high temperature records in January,February,March,April and now in May



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