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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

gloom & doom

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2016 at 5:14am
over population is the elephant in the room,

unfortunatly so is all the unequaliy in the world......

and i have traveled to very very very poor countries.......

seen the poverty and the masses.......

and i am blessed to live where i live ......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2016 at 12:09pm
I have anything but a rosy view of the future, so this is my kind of thread unfortunately. I had a discussion with someone at work the other day about the world we'll be leaving our kids and grand-kids, and by the time we were done, I think I really depressed her. The lesson here is don't talk about the future with a prepper that believes in climate change, I guess Ermm

I suspect that we're past the tipping point, and we can cut back on all the carbon emissions we like because other factors are now in play that are capable of driving climate change regardless - principally methane and water vapor. All we can do is prepare for a very different world, and one which will come along much faster than people think.

Short version of my expectations for the future - mid century is when we'll look back on our current problems and get nostalgic. By then, the major growing ares of the world will be seeing a decrease in production due to climate change, just about the time the UN believes the human population will be between nine and eleven billion. To feed that many people will require an estimated 70% more food (at a time of shrinking food production), a seemingly impossible goal given the number of people that go to sleep hungry now. Throw the projected collapse of fish stocks into the mix (which is coincidentally estimated to happen due to over-fishing by 2048), and we are well and truly screwed. Widespread famine in thirty years, as well as a rapidly changing climate. Buckle up, kids. It's going to be a rough ride.




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2016 at 2:48pm
HAPPY DAYS.....Wink

yes i do wonder what the future holds for my grandchildren........

but people been saying that for ever.....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2016 at 1:21pm
jacksdad, you are an optimist Approve !


Fossil-fuel addiction is a deadly disease-on the short term. 

I am very lucky to live in a rich country, with a good house, income, healthcare etc. and I want to enjoy all the good days that are still there-limited but still there. 

The CO2 produced 20 years ago is effecting the atmosphere and climate now-there is a timegap. We can not turn back time to un-release the CO2 from last decades-they will show their effects coming years, months. Unless there is a miracle we will not be around in 2025.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2016 at 5:11pm
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2016 at 11:32pm
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114844-mystery-antarctic-circle-means-ice-is-melting-from-surface-down/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=ILC&utm_campaign=webpush&cmpid=ILC%257CNSNS%257C2016-GLOBAL-webpush-MYSTERYICE meltwater-lakes under the East Antarctica ice-shelf in my (DJ) opinion could mean that the quantity and quality of (land)ice in Antarctica and Greenland could be seen much to optimistic-under 4m of ice there is 4m of water-maybe widespread. So there is not 8m of ice to melt, just 4-which could give way to ice behind it sliding towards the ocean. 

Much more melt

The researchers discovered similar “hot spots”, or sites of surface melting elsewhere around East Antarctica. Previously, scientists had thought that this degree of surface melting, which leads to instability of the ice sheet, only existed on Greenland or West Antarctica.

“We’ve shown that the East Antarctic ice shelves are prone to local surface melting, which is important to take into account when looking at the future response of Antarctica to climate change,” says the other lead author Stef Lhermitte, at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

http://ak-wx.blogspot.nl/2016/12/arctic-update.html

The NSIDC's latest report provides additional context on November's Arctic weather patterns and the state of sea ice.  November's Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for the month, and the monthly ice extent remains more than 3 standard deviations below normal (although not quite as anomalous as during October).

Although not directly related, the ice conditions in the Antarctic are so unusual that they also deserve a mention; the November mean ice extent in the south was by far the most anomalous on record (for any month) at 5.7 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 normal.  This year's conditions are an extreme outlier compared to the climate of the last few decades, as seen in the NSIDC's graphic below.  On a global basis, sea ice extent in November was an astonishing 7.2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 normal.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4026416/Australia-braces-hottest-summer-night-1972-heatwave-sweeps-country.html?ito=social-facebook_Australia

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2016 at 8:01am
Temperature anomaly up to 30C in Arctic http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom and storms with windspeeds 100km/hr+ http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.WS10. The sea-ice in the Arctic does not get much chance to form. 


The sea-ice will not be able to stop landice sliding into the oceans-giving abrupt sealevelrise, possible tsunamis. Earthquakes in polar regions will make things worse. Methane levels, CO2 levels are rising with record speed. We are getting close to 490 ppm CO2 equivalent-in Earths history that stands for sealevel 40 meters higher, temperatures 4 degrees warmer. And the outlook is that we will cross the 500 ppm (parts per million) level by the end of next year. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2016 at 9:49am
Scientists release Arctic Report Card. If that makes you go 'uh-oh,' you've got it right

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...e-got-it-right
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2016 at 6:28pm
Huge 20 Year Build up of Arctic Fresh Water May Flood North Atlantic & Stall Gulf Stream

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/13/1610344/-Huge-20-Year-Build-up-of-Arctic-Fresh-Water-May-Flood-North-Atlantic-Stall-Gulf-Stream
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2016 at 11:56pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/12/16/warm-ocean-water-is-slamming-into-and-melting-the-biggest-glacier-in-east-antarctica/?utm_term=.4523b2f52424

(Eventhough the washingtonpost has become an elite propaganda medium spreading "fake"news, sometimes they do not lie DJ, 11,5 feet-more than 3 metres, sealevelrise on its way....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0isfkb0duN4 BPEarthWatch claiming increase in earthquakes influenced by solar/spaceweather events-that also influences climate. Just like there is volcanic activity on Antarctica-reality may be very complex. I (DJ) try to understand what is happening, makes some sense-but the more I get into these stories the less I understand the full picture.)

Scientists at institutions in the United States and Australia on Friday publisheda set of unprecedented ocean observations near the largest glacier of the largest ice sheet in the world: Totten glacier, East Antarctica. And the result was a troubling confirmation of what scientists already feared — Totten is melting from below.

The measurements, sampling ocean temperatures in seas over a kilometer (0.62 miles) deep in some places right at the edge of Totten glacier’s floating ice shelf, affirmed that warm ocean water is flowing in towards the glacier at the rate of 220,000 cubic meters per second.

These waters, the paper asserts, are causing the ice shelf to lose between 63 and 80 billion tons of its mass to the ocean per year, and to lose about 10 meters (32 feet) of thickness annually, a reduction that has been previously noted based on satellite measurements.

This matters because more of East Antarctica flows out towards the sea through the Totten glacier region than for any other glacier in the entirety of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Its entire “catchment,” or the region of ice that slowly flows outward through Totten glacier and its ice shelf, is larger than California. If all of this ice were to end up in the ocean somehow, seas would raise by about 11.5 feet.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2016 at 3:35am

What is the global ocean conveyor belt?

The global ocean conveyor belt is a constantly moving system of deep-ocean circulation driven by temperature and salinity.

global ocean conveyor belt

The great ocean conveyor moves water around the globe.

The ocean is not a still body of water. There is constant motion in the ocean in the form of a global ocean conveyor belt. This motion is caused by a combination of thermohaline currents (thermo = temperature; haline = salinity) in the deep ocean and wind-driven currents on the surface. Cold, salty water is dense and sinks to the bottom of the ocean while warm water is less dense and remains on the surface.

The ocean conveyor gets its “start” in the Norwegian Sea, where warm water from the Gulf Stream heats the atmosphere in the cold northern latitudes. This loss of heat to the atmosphere makes the water cooler and denser, causing it to sink to the bottom of the ocean. As more warm water is transported north, the cooler water sinks and moves south to make room for the incoming warm water. This cold bottom water flows south of the equator all the way down to Antarctica. Eventually, the cold bottom waters returm to the surface through mixing and wind-driven upwelling, continuing the conveyor belt that encircles the globe.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2016 at 3:40am

Ocean Conveyor Belt Impact


By Edwin Schiele

Ocean surface currents redistribute heat around the world and have a profound effect on the world’s climate. Nowhere is this clearer than in the North Atlantic Ocean. The Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current ferry huge volumes of warm salty tropical water north to the Greenland coast and to the Nordic Seas. Heat radiating off of this water helps keep the countries of northwest Europe, which are at the same latitude as Labrador and Greenland, relatively comfortable places to live.

Many scientists, however, are warning that the North Atlantic might cool down, perhaps by the turn of the century. Paradoxically, global warming would be to blame. Rising temperatures may trigger events that could not only slow the supply of tropical water flowing north, it could disrupt the entire ocean circulation pattern.

This scenario has led to wild talk of the start of a new ice age, a notion that climate scientists universally dismiss. Still the impact on the world’s climate could be profound. Scientists are therefore scrambling to gather data on ocean circulation and the forces that drive it.

Ocean circulation is comprised of a global network of interconnected currents, counter-currents, deepwater currents, and turbulent eddies. From this complex circulation, an underlying transport pattern emerges. Water cycles from surface currents to deepwater currents then back to the surface again in what scientists liken to a giant conveyor belt. Scientists call this global conveyor belt the meridional overturning circulation.

There are two major forces driving the meridional overturning circulation. First there is the wind. The wind, in combination with the Earth’s rotation, generates the gyres that circle the major ocean basins. Turbulent swirling packets of water called eddies, many of which are hundreds of kilometers in diameter, spin out of these wind-driven currents and carry the water trapped inside them to other parts of the ocean.

The second force is tied to differences in the density of water. Temperature and salinity independently affect water’s density. The colder and saltier the water, the denser it becomes. As water becomes denser, it sinks.

This is where the Atlantic Ocean plays a pivotal role. Again, the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current carry warm salty tropical water up into the Labrador and Greenland Seas. Frigid Arctic winds cool this water, increasing its density. The water then sinks, feeding deepwater currents. This same density driven creation of deepwater also takes place in the frigid Ross and Weddell Seas off the coast of Antarctica, and to a lesser extent in the salty Mediterranean Sea.

Scientists call this density-driven component of the meridional overturning circulation the thermohaline circulation; thermo meaning heat and saline meaning salt. Without this density-driven process, deepwater currents would no longer be created. The global conveyor belt would grind to a halt.

Scientists are using observations and models to trace the complex pathways of the meridional overturning circulation and determine its strength. It’s an overwhelming task. Maps charting the circulation’s course are still evolving. Deeper currents and upwelling in particular are extremely difficult to measure. But some patterns are becoming clearer.

Starting off the Greenland coast, the newly created deepwater slowly drifts south along the western margin of the Atlantic basin. It then crosses the equator and mixes with the deepwater currents circling Antarctica. Models suggest that some of this water resurfaces in this area. Much of it, however, spreads north into Indian and Pacific Oceans where it mixes with warmer water and resurfaces.

To close the loop of the conveyor belt, surface water flows from the Pacific and Indian Oceans back into the South Atlantic then heads north. Some cold water enters the South Atlantic from the Pacific around the southern tip of South America. The Agulhas Current in the Indian Ocean is another important source. This fast-moving current, the Indian Ocean’s equivalent of the Gulf Stream, flows down the southeast coast of Africa and past the tip of South Africa then takes a sharp turn to the east. Large eddies called Agulhas Rings spin off this bend and carry huge bundles of warm salty Indian Ocean water west into the South Atlantic. Currents carry much of this Indian Ocean water north to the equator where the sun heats it further. Eventually this water enters the Caribbean and is swept into the Gulf Stream.

Scientists believe that these Agulhas Rings are critical sources of the salty water that drives the formation of deep water up north. Eddies spinning out of the Mediterranean Sea and net evaporation in the tropical Atlantic also contribute salty water.

Despite its enormous scope, the meridional overturning circulation is vulnerable. Places where deepwater currents are created comprise less than one percent of the ocean’s surface area. Should the temperature or salinity in these limited areas change, the creation of deep water could slow or even stop.

There is strong evidence that such a shutdown has happened in the past, drastically altering the world’s climate in just a matter of years. Eleven thousand years ago, ice age glaciers were retreating. In central Canada, an immense glacial lake called Lake Agassiz occupied an area larger than all the Great Lakes. Suddenly the dams holding Lake Agassiz collapsed. The contents of the entire lake rushed into the North Atlantic by way of the St. Lawrence River. This massive infusion of fresh water diluted the polar seas to the point where the water was no longer dense enough to sink. The meridional overturning circulation likely ground to a stop. Called the Younger Dryas, this one thousand year period saw the temporary return of the ice age.

We may soon face a similar although far less drastic situation. Scientists are predicting that rising temperatures will melt the Greenland ice sheet. Models suggest that the resulting influx of fresh melt water into the polar sea could weaken the meridional overturning circulation, although not as drastically as the events thought to have triggered the Younger Dryas period. Still it could slow enough to reduce the flow of warm tropical water north into the polar seas. Temperatures over northwestern Europe could drop as much five degrees Celsius.

Predictably, talk of such a scenario has led to some big misconceptions. First, a slowdown or even a stoppage of the meridional overturning circulation would NOT spell the end to the Gulf Stream. Wind and large-scale turbulence drive the bulk of the Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, of which the Gulf Stream is a part. The Gulf Stream would, however, draw significantly less water from the tropics.

Second, unlike during the Younger Dryas, a weakening of the meridional overturning circulation will NOT trigger another ice age. Rising temperatures due to global warming would offset most of the temperature drop. Armadas of icebergs floating off the New Jersey coast are just Hollywood fantasies.

But even in the absence of these most extreme scenarios, any disruption of the meridional overturning circulation can have far-reaching consequences. Models and paleoclimate data suggest that as less warm water flows north across the equator, the southern oceans will warm. The thermal equator (band of highest temperatures) would therefore likely shift south. The tropical rain belts would follow, altering rainfall patterns. Decreased downwelling would deliver less oxygen to the deep ocean, and decreased upwelling would carry fewer nutrients up from the bottom, potentially devastating ocean ecosystems.

Monitoring the meridional overturning circulation and identifying changes in the thermohaline circulation is daunting. To separate real trends in ocean circulation from natural variability, scientists require huge volumes of data gathered over a long period of time. A global network of surface and deep profiling ARGO drifters that measure currents, water temperature, and salinity form the backbone of this effort. Moored buoys measure the southbound deepwater currents at strategic locations in the Atlantic. Satellites measure wind, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height, and programs such as OSCAR calculate surface currents based on these measurements. In 2010, a new satellite, Aquarius, will begin to measure surface salinity throughout the ocean. These observations already form the foundation for global ocean circulation and climate models that are helping scientists predict how the oceans and climate will respond as the Earth warms.

global ocean surface currentsGlobal Ocean Surface Currents
(click image to enlarge) 
Credit : PhysicalGeography.net

ocean conveyor belt, text follows for description
The global oceanic conveyer belt is shown above in a simplified illustration.

pathways of transformation for warm subtropical water, description follows(click to enlarge)

Pathways associated with the transformation of warm subtropical waters into colder subpolar and polar waters in the northern North Atlantic. Along the subpolar gyre pathway the red to yellow transition indicates the cooling to Labrador Sea Water, which flows back to the subtropical gyre in the west as an intermediate depth current (yellow). 
Credit: ©Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) and Oceanus Magazine. http://oceanusmag.whoi.edu/index.html

quickscat image of ocean surface winds
Wind Data - The image above shows wind speeds and direction in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean on August 1, 1999, gathered by the SeaWinds radar instrument flying onboard the QuikScat satellite. (Click image to enlarge)

 
(click on the arrow to play high resolution version)

The ocean circulation conveyor belt helps balance climate. As part of the ocean conveyor belt, warm water from the tropical Atlantic moves poleward near the surface where it gives up some of its heat to the atmosphere. This process partially moderates the cold temperatures at higher latitudes. As the warm water gives up its heat it becomes more dense and sinks. This circulation loop is closed as the cooled water makes its way slowly back toward the tropics at lower depths in the ocean.

Courtesy NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab
Description - Original Source Page 

QuickTime - High Resolution Low Resolution 
Windows Media - High Resolution Low Resolution


(If the video above does not play, get Adobe Flash)
(click on the arrow to play high resolution version)

The Agulhas Current - The animation focuses on the Agulhas current (a major surface current) as it flows around the southern tip of Africa. The small scale eddy structure is resolved and evident. Note the black colors indicate the warmest ocean surface temperatures and and light blues indicate the coolest temperatures. Sea surface temperature (SST) simulation from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean model. 
Credits: Anthony Rosati (GFDL) and Chris Kerr (GFDL), Princeton University.

 


 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2016 at 3:45am
without the conveyor  the  northern hemisphere woulsd be under 50ft of snow........

so if  it stopped like it did about 11000 years ago,

 the earth could be punged into an ice age within 10 years......


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