Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
H7N9 Chinese Experts Fear an Epidemic |
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cobber
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Posted: January 21 2014 at 8:34pm |
Hi Guys just came across an article from China (may need translation)
http://life.chinatimes.com/LifeContent/1404/20140122000422.html Experts fear an epidemic. scary stuff Also: Huang Li-min, chief physician at the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases says H7N9 is becoming stronger. This is evident by younger people becoming very ill. Also to note in the article is Director Zhang Fengyi said they had not yet confirmed signs of sustained human to human transmission, but must watch closely. I'm a little suspicious of the wording used. Reading into this. It looks like they have had signs of H2H, but only sporadic occurrences. Either way it seem like some high level virologist are a bit worried about this one.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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They're acknowledging that it's getting stronger, which I read to be more adapted to humans. It's developing a taste for the receptors in our airways and lungs, and it's beginning to feel comfortable with our body temperature. I don't think that there's any doubt that H7N9 is moving closer to a fully H2H virus. Whether it gets there is anyone's guess right now.
Fingers crossed that in a couple of years we'll still be here, laughing at how panicked we got back in 2014 over nothing. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Jacksdad, I am getting the same signals.
Experts say the Northern Hemisphere's winter flu season is probably largely to blame for a significant increase in the number of cases of human H7N9 infection in recent weeks after they dwindled to almost nothing in July and August of 2013. But they have cautioned that public health authorities and doctors must be on alert for any signals that the more widely circulating virus might be adapting or mutating to become easily transmissible between people. ....like doctors catching it from patients, maybe?? |
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CRS, DrPH
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Exactly - no contact with poultry, but ample exposure to people with flu-like symptoms. It was undoubtedly H2H, but how efficiently at this stage?
And how long before we see the emergence of the first super spreader? |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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Even worse, in some area's with H7N9 also H1N1 and/or H5N2 is found ! The chances of virusses ending up in an animal and mixing into a new form is groing.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I totally agree, Josh. Pigs are excellent mixing vessels for flu strains that can later infect humans, and there are half a billion of them in China. The presence of so many viruses at one time in a country known to be more than capable of producing novel strains by virtue of the way they raise food animals is disturbing. H1N1 and H7N9 in particular worry me. The offspring that could be generated by that pair (or indeed H1N1 and H5N1/H5N2/H6N1/H10N8) could be the one that brought us all here - a true novel pandemic strain, the like of which we haven't seen in almost a hundred years.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
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China at least is capable of testing. I do not want to know wath virusses are going around in many places without testingfacilities !
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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