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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

H7N9 heading to UK

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 24 2017 at 3:55pm

Bird flu pandemic worse than 2009 swine flu outbreak could be on its way to Britain

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth urged the Government to say what measures it is taking to improve preparedness to deal with such an outbreak

A bird flu pandemic could be heading Britain's way, warn scientists
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Scientists fear a bird flu pandemic worse than the 2009 swine flu outbreak could be 
heading Britain’s way.

And the UK is making no preparations for a vaccine to prevent it.

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said: “Given the severity of the warnings, the Government ought to say what measures it is taking to improve preparedness to deal with an outbreak like this.”

More than 1,300 bird flu victims have been identified, mostly in China.

Of those, 476 have died, a rate of more than one in three.

There are also victims in Indonesia, Egypt and Vietnam, and two cases in Canada of people travelling from China.

Jon Ashworth wants the Government to outline what measures it is taking to improve preparedness

The virus, H7N9, has so far only been caught by humans from birds or a close family member who is infected.

But scientists say that it is only two mutations away from widespread human-to-human transmission.

A warning in New Scientist magazine says: “If the virus evolves the ability to spread between humans easily, it will go pandemic and circle the world in weeks.”

Flu experts say if that happens it is likely to be more severe than the H1N1 swine flu pandemic that swept Britain eight years ago.

The virus, H7N9, has so far only been caught by humans from birds or a close family member who is infected

They fear it could rival the 1918 pandemic when a bird flu strain killed up to 100million people worldwide.

The 2009 swine flu outbreak in Britain struck 800,000 people and caused more than 280 deaths.

The US Centre for Disease Control said: “It is possible that this latest virus could gain the ability to spread easily and sustainably among people, triggering a global outbreak.”

A Public Health England (PHE) spokesman said vaccine research is being carried out in the US and by the World Health Organisation.

She added: “Public Health England is not involved.”

A PHE report in March said the risk was low but added: “This large peak in cases does warrant careful and continued monitoring.”

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2017 at 11:47pm
I got a few email alerts on this news as well.  All of them are saying it's two mutations away from jumping to humans, which previous reports said 3 mutations.  Since China doesn't share samples to test it's really just a guessing game I suppose.  

They seem to be hyping an upcoming h7n9 pandemic pretty good.  This is going to be a hot topic in the next few months.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 1:18am
There does seem to be a change in the overly-optimistic tone we usually hear from organizations like the WHO that monitor disease outbreaks, and there's definitely been an uptick in warnings from them. They clearly think something is on the horizon.

Quite apart from the specter of it making it to an H2H strain, H7N9 is already mutating to a virus that will be harder to treat if it does. Tests carried out after a 56-year-old Guangdong province man died earlier this month despite being administered Tamiflu showed the strain that killed him had markers suggesting resistance.




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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 3:35am
Might it be 2 mutations from h2h but 3 from a full pandemic, with a 40%kill rate as it is now,or dosnt it work like that...??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 7:22am
A media outlet quoting the high end number for 1918? Haven't seen that in a while - usually they invoke the one with the highest warm, fuzzy feeling factor. Anything approaching 1918 would be devastating, and (God help us) something worse would be almost unimaginable in the room full of dominoes our society has become. It would come unraveled so fast, and so completely, that we simply wouldn't have time to adjust.


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 11:17am
we're all going to be busy around here in a few months either way. 

The next pandemic is a 100% certainty, as we all know, and most likely an avian flu pandemic within the next 17 - 32 years based on human history.  At 50 years old, hope to not see that day, but it is a certainty in life that it will take place within that time frame for the "very latest".   It's simply the way it works. 

Having said that, the time may be quite a bit shorter at this point.  When you factor the increased rate of new variants and strains emerging, it would appear that we will most likely deal with an avian flu pandemic within our lifetime.   Are we truly on the brink now?  I suppose we're about to find out.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 3:03pm
me 60 next birthday......watched the planet die  in the last 50 years.....


i know it would be bad for the Humans on this  Planet,

but realisticly ,its the only way to clean the planet up,<div id="UMS_TOOLTIP" style=": ; cursor: pointer; : 2147483647; : transparent; top: -100000px; left: -100000px;">

we are the cause of the deforrestation,killing all the wildlife, pollution in the Oceans,

and the Major user of fossil fuel,never seen a chimp driving,seen pleanty of monkeys driving here LOL,

the predition is that the earth population will be pushing 9 billion in 15 years ,its not sustainable !!!!

so as long its non of mine  a pandemic is the fairest and best way of depopulating the Planet,


thats what i have aways thought 

too many people ................

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 4:09pm
I forgot the term and theory in which mother earth will ultimately takes care of itself in the end. 
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