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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

H7N9 only 2 mutations to go

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 24 2017 at 5:53pm
and we have a human pandemic like never before in recorded history.

This close now people and every time a person contracts this virus it mutates to humanity.

A pandemic is imminent.


Bird flu pandemic worse than 2009 swine flu outbreak could be on ...

Mirror.co.uk-3 hours ago
The virus, H7N9, has so far only been caught by humans from birds or a close family member who is infected. But scientists say that it is only two mutations away ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2017 at 10:54pm
I thought that it was at three mutations away....so this is a recent change (or, more likely, I haven't been following this as closely as I should).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 7:28am
And in at least one case, it's shown markers that suggest it's developed, or is developing, resistance to antivirals. I'm guessing it's either picked up the necessary genes from another strain circulating at the same time like H1N1, or Chinese farmers are prophylactically dosing their poultry again. I really don't think there have been enough cases in China to make it resistant yet, unless they're lying about the extent of the spread. Whatever the mechanism, it could mean that an H2H virus could emerge with little warning for which we have no vaccine or effective treatments.

Now there's a cheery thought Confused
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 2:49pm
It "could" be getting close, but since none of us have ever witnessed this sort evolution actually taking place before and getting this close,  we can't be sure.  

I'm just glad Hachiban and JD live fairly close by.   hehe
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 2:57pm
Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

I thought that it was at three mutations away....so this is a recent change (or, more likely, I haven't been following this as closely as I should).

No you are correct.  Since actual samples will never be released from China, we have to take China's word on it,  and hope for info to be leaked.  2 mutations might also not be accurate.  Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2017 at 3:47pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

I'm just glad Hachiban and JD live fairly close by.   hehe
 


Yeah, about that. We'll probably be busy that day with a thing. Next pandemic maybe.




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2017 at 3:30am
H5N1 only has 1 mutation to go

the point being

Every time a person gets this bug it gets closer to jumping to humans.

When a human cell gets infected with flu it replicates and one cell produces 100,000 new fly bugs and every single one is a mutant of the original flu bug that first infected the cell.

So every time a human gets this flu - watch out.

A pandemic is imminent.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2017 at 2:44pm
Kilt we all know how it happens,no need to keep telling us.....Wink

and every time it changes its got a an equal chance to just give us all a headache.......LOL


12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:25am

Three Mutations Could Turn Bird Flu Virus Into A Human Pandemic

IFLScience-18 hours ago
The researchers are interested in a strain called Avian influenza A(H7N9). This virus has infected over 900 people since 2013, according to the World Health ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:26am
Where are you in WA?

This is serious - I am just putting up the facts.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:28am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

It "could" be getting close, but since none of us have ever witnessed this sort evolution actually taking place before and getting this close,  we can't be sure.  

I'm just glad Hachiban and JD live fairly close by.   hehe
 

People have witnessed pandemics - scientists

Robert Webster for one.

Robert Webster (virologist) - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Webster_(virologist)
Robert Gordon (Rob) Webster is an avian influenza authority who correctly posited that ... at the same university in 1957, and his PhD from the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, in 1962. ... the Department of Microbiology and the Department of Immunology at the StJude Children's Research Hospital in .


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:29am
Perth,why?

We all serious,but light hearted aswell,ive been waiting and watching with interest for a long time,thought it was h5n1 ,but since all the pigs in the river, h7n9 has had my attention,just have to wait see if it's the "Slate wiper"
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:31am
The pandemic is imminent

that means hanging over our heads ready to drop at any time.

I love Perth
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 3:33am
Where are you ?

Perth, The most isolated city in the world
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 5:28pm
Originally posted by Kilt5 Kilt5 wrote:

The pandemic is imminent

that means hanging over our heads ready to drop at any time.

I love Perth


I love you to death, Kilt - but that was the most conflicted post I've seen in a long time. Had me on an emotional roller coaster there. Just glad you ended on a high note LOL




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2017 at 4:01am
the official government status is " an influenza pandemic is imminent"

the definition of imminent is "hanging over our head ready to drop at any time
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