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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

H7N9 or MERS? Place your bets here.

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LOPPER View Drop Down
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    Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:03am
Which will be the first to reach the US (assuming either one is not present now) and why in your opinion?
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:38am
Good question/post.  Should have possibly done a poll. 

I'm guessing MERS first, in November.

H7N9 probably shortly thereafter, maybe December. 

Things could change for a very long time to come this winter.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:44am
MERS-Cov
According to the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries close to a million tourist from the Middle Esat visited the U. S. in 2012 and 1.5 million U. S. citizens visited the Middle East. This doesn't even include the business people from hunderds of cities who pass through there on their way here. Now toss in 12,000 american Muslims going to Haj next month and the fact that Flu season really will just be starting. I think Albert is right though, we'll see both soon enough!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:56am
Yeah I'm betting MERS since it is by all accounts now being passed around like the common cold. I'd actually be surprised if it wasn't already present in the US.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 11:05am
You never know with h7n9.  It could be a little more volatile than MERS once the temps drop.  H7N9 will undoubtedly explode this winter, in my opinion.

Both could be somewhat unstoppable once they find the right winter climate. And both might already be capable of sustained/airborne transmission.  Again, it's probably simply the summer months holding them back at the moment.  Although I hope that's not the case, but we're about to find out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 11:31am
No doubt time will tell Albert. H7N7 isn't anything to sneeze about either. Pardon the pun.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Alive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 12:46pm
I'm no virology expert. But is recombination a choice?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2013 at 8:55pm
Reassortment you mean?  Recombination sounds like niman.  Although, probably not possible.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:42am
H7n9, i would think the air traffic from asia is far more than the haj ,as  it's constant, 

i also think that a Mers vaccine is around the corner, and would be easier to make than a bird flu

 vaccine because it would grow in the eggs  not kill them as its not a bird flu 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Alive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:57am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Reassortment you mean?  Recombination sounds like niman.  Although, probably not possible.


Thanks Albert.

I would say H7N9 then. My reasoning is because of the mortality rates I could find on the CDC. But that said I wish the mortality rates were more current.

If it kills it's victims it will travel less.

H7N9 case-fatality rate of 18.7%


http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/7/13-0523_article.htm


MERS COV case-fatality rate: 56%

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6223a6.htm?s_cid=mm6223a6_w


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Alive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 4:53am
BTW 1918 pandemic case-fatality rates were much lower.
I feel this is the number to watch. The higher the number the more likely it will kill itself off.

1918 pandemic case-fatality rate of 1.66%–2.77%. 

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/4/12-0103_article.htm



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 5:44am
i dont think mortality stat's count at the moment, these victims are getting the very very best care and if

either of these took off wholesale or both together  the stats would be off the scale, especialy if it got

loose in a refugee camp,also there are millions of people on the move right now, all in the middle east,

(might at this stage revise what i said about h7n9)  lol

 we might be in deep mire, soon...........

or maybe not..... this time!!!!!!

watching as ever with interest..........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Alive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 6:56am
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

i dont think mortality stat's count at the moment, these victims are getting the very very best care and if

either of these took off wholesale or both together  the stats would be off the scale, especialy if it got

loose in a refugee camp,also there are millions of people on the move right now, all in the middle east,

(might at this stage revise what i said about h7n9)  lol

 we might be in deep mire, soon...........

or maybe not..... this time!!!!!!

watching as ever with interest..........



I'm sure the exposure to infection rate comes into play also, but if it kills ya you are far less likely to expose anyone else. Like that old saying....
Dont kill the messenger. LOL


H5N1 cases dropped in 2012, but fatality rate rose.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/04/h5n1-cases-dropped-2012-fatality-rate-rose

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:05pm
it depends how long the virus is contagious before showing signs ,if the incubation period is a month

it will spread a long way , a great virus wont kill you for a while but might spread rapidly so all

of a sudden you got a lot of sick people, and it just would not stop, the health systems would crash and

thats in a 1st world county imagine it in Bombay or Bejing,any other city that the people are jammed in

with no heath system  or Meds to cope ,take a look at the treatment the patients get now times that by

 100's or thousands in a week the system would never cope
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2013 at 1:21am
Since the Hadj is mid-october I bet MERS will be in the US earlier then H7N9 (with Chinese new year ?) but that does not mean that MERS will be a bigger problem. The worrie should be that there are so many virusses (H7N9, H3N2 (with H1N1-partsin it), other H7-virusses, H5N1, H1N1pdm, MERS) around and so many people moving around the world as soldier, refugee etc. For economic reasons health in many countries is something people can not spent much money on, making things worse. 

On the other hand there is not always logic in virusses. On the southern hemisfhere flu was not such a big problem last months. Last flu-season on the northerh half of the world was extreme. 

MERS has also shown up in several European countries, Tunesia, Turkey and is not limited to a (flu)season. H7N9 proberbly is more linked to flu-season and only has been found in China (and Hong Kong wich is part of China !)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rickster58 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2013 at 12:18pm
The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
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Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
 
Hey Rickster
 
Where did you get that from?     (The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9)
 
Just curious, had not heard of any H7N9 cases outside China really
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2013 at 5:33pm
My bet is MERS first and Pick your flu what ever flavor H5N1 or H7N9 or whatever Mother Nature throws at us. It is a guessing game every year and a crap shoot if the Flu Shot will work!

Like I keep saying Mother Nature is not happy with world population and she will knock it down no matter what shots we have!
Always Be Prepared
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2013 at 6:02pm
Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
 
Ah you must be mistaken. There are no reported cases of H7N9 in Australia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vish, New Zealand Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2013 at 1:57am
I hadn't heard of any H7N9 in Oz either.  That will be a big worry as the Oz and Kiwi populations have extremely low immunity against even common flu viruses!
 
And, yes I do agree that it is MERS that is likely to spread around the world due to Haj.  Then again H7N9 could already be circulating silently and mutating as we speak!
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