Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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One of my neighbors at this apartment building also had cold or flu symptoms, either back to back or something, for weeks if not over a month.
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I am not a prophet
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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While MRSA is not new, whom it is affecting is. It has generally been considered a hospital acquired infection in the past but now (like TB) is affecting dormant populations (Nursing Homes, Prisons, and still Hospitals). It is also showing up in schools and colleges specifically with football players, and those that share towels and razors. This months' issue of JEMS (Journal of Emergency Medical Services) has a small article on MRSA and how it has been found in ambulances and likely locations of finding in the patient compartment. The real eye opener was that they have also found it even on the steering wheel of the EMS unit. Seems like we are cross contaminating ourselves there. Some cities are now looking into MRSA being a "Presumed" incident for their police, fire and EMS personnel, that if they get it, it is presumed thay got it at work and are covered under workmans comp..
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERM 1,I really like your posts. They seem to have a ring of truth to them and they also fit in with what I was told several months ago by our fire department and EMS services. I have some information they comes from a Federal level source that I know and this fits with what he says also. But one thing still troubles me and if you are allowed to,I will ask you this guesstion--Why did they leave the Family Practice doctors out,and it was no accident,they even told the people of the fire department and the EMS people to keep this information from us. Of course,living in a small town, when you tell some one to keep a secret it is more effectitve in getting the secret told than putting it in the local newspaper. But why has there been an obvious attempt to keep the Primary Providers in the dark?--- Also, the guy on the Federal level spent many weekends and even full weeks going to seminars on this "Bird Flu". He did not know why the Family Pracice doctors were left out either. He also told me that as of about 6 months ago,there been no meetings or seminars on "Bird Flu" .he says that no one even talkes about it any more. So,do you know what is going on?I will greatly appriciate any information that you will give me? Johnray1
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Every thing that I've heard is that just like Vet's, the local Doc's are going to be the first ones to encounter the disease. Even before EMS and the E.R.s get buried in public demand, it will be the family physician's that see it first, thus becoming field epidemiologists whether they want to or not. As they become overwhelmed (and exposed) they will quickly be put out of play. I'm going to a Fed class soon in another state for training on planning and preparedness for the fire/EMS/police level. They just had another class in my home state aimed at public health, game wardens, and hospital staff,put on by the States' Department of Public Health. I don't know about your professional journals, but I've been seeing articles in just about all of the fire and EMS ones that we get at the station.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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The lady in question has pneumonia. She's walking around and not in the grave, but I worry about her.
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I am not a prophet
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Several years ago while I was working as a ghetto medic, we we always told to keep our eyes open (especially "after hours") regarding patterns in patient conditions, so that we might know what we're looking at when we see it. No I'm not trying to be vague but the first responders in the community are going to be the first to see it as it takes off, and we need to be smart enough to recognize it when it does.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Ok, I just updated my med kit. As many of you may remember, I buy separately and in bulk and thus save a lot of money. I do have two emergency kits, but they're cheap and only about 10 dollars total.
Now, some of us are healthcare professionals, but some of us aren't. The med kits you get at the store (Bartells is the best place to get kits in the 20 dollar range) usually only have one pair of gloves, mostly bandaids and very little medications. Once these primary resources are exhausted, all that's left is an expensive bandaid case. So first I advise you to buy a box of latex gloves, or vinyl if you're allergic. Instead of paying 30 dollars for a fresh kit, you buy by the box, which is only about 5 dollars for a 100ct, and save hundreds of dollars. Then I advise you get analgesics. The definition of an analgesic is a painkiller, but most people use them for headaches. I bought Ibuprofin, but aspirin and tylenol are analgesics. The more expensive kits will have about 10 alcohol swabs, we use those to disinfect wounds. But if you buy by the box, you get 100ct for about 4 dollars. Both isoprophyl alcohol and hydrogen peroxide are disinfectants, but the peroxide is painless and doesn't sting. A bottle of peroxide is about 99 cents, a similarly-sized bottle of alcohol is also about a dollar and some change. If you buy separately, you not only save money but can develop an emergency kit that can handle several dozen patients at a time. Some bandaids come in foil, they have antibacterial cream. I bought neosporin. I've never used it personally so can't recommend it, but it should keep your cut or scrape from becoming infected. So the newest additions to my kit are: rolled gauze, burn cooling spray, large sterile pads. I had a lot of boxes in the duffel bag, I broke them down and put the supplies into ziploc baggies. This saved space and probably a bit of weight. I still need to itemize everything I have on a piece of paper. I have cheap adhesive tape and am going to get the paper kind. |
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I am not a prophet
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERMS 1,this Johnray1 again. Are you telling me in a round about way that Family Practioners are going to be the first to see "Bird Flu" and also possibly be amoung the first that diagnos and contact and catch the disease,then we will basically be amoung the first to also die from "Bird Flu" and since we will,in effect,be wiped out,that the people at the top see no reason to eduate us on this because most of us will either be dead or unable to work? I would really like an answer to this,if you will give me one? Johnray1
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Johnray 1, the answer to your question is basically, Yup. I don't think that anyone is conspiring to take out the local Doc's (H5N1 been in just about every peer related medical journal out there). Depending on where you look, (start at the state level with an internet search) there is information available. I have info available to me at the county, state and Fed levels. You might want to contact your county Public Health rep. and see what their position and plans are for your area, then see what the state is doing. Since each state has to have a plan (to get in on the fed gravy train) you also need to be direct (and blunt) and ask those folks what their plans are specifically for the local Doc's as a group.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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JG1, the ziplock bag route on medical supplies is an excellent idea. I do stand-by medic for local football games and have done that for my gloves, tape, bandaids, small items of the like and dressings for several years. Just remember that now is not the time to be cheap about it. I use quart and gallon size zip lock freezer bags and I use the name brand. They're darn near indestructable and last for years. When the supply train dries up sterile, dry or even clean medical supplies will be worth thier weight in gold.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERM 1,Thank you. I like to know where I stand.Johnray1 P.S. Just so all of the fire depatment personnel,ems personnel amd Family Physicans know what this means. When we are all exhausted both mentally and physcially and sick and need help. Help it is not coming.The Calvary is not riding in to rescue us at the last minute.Live or die,we will be on our own. Johnray1
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PrepGirl
Admin Group Joined: May 31 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1629 |
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I personally would like to see more info out to the public from the state and local levels. Just going to the docters office and seeing mask and gloves don't cut it. They got a sign up saying if you cough use a mask and clean your hands. Well that a little vegue if you ask me. Why don't they just come out and say Bird Flu kills and we need to take percautions. Educate the public.
prepgirl |
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Like JG1 "I'm not a Prophet" either, but have spent enough time in EMS, Disaster Medicine, Mass Casuality Planning, and on the fringe of Emergency Management that it will be archaic when it happens. I figure that we will be able to set the clock back a minimum of 75 years. Fire fighting (if any at all) will be to protect the exposures, and let the fire burn itself out. There will not be enough manpower to do more than that, especially if the 40% rule (of the work force not showing up) comes into play. EMS (and the medical field in general) will rapidly run out of supplies and cease to be an effective adjunct. My department has a reserve supply of 300 gallons of diesel fuel, once the deliveries stop, my vehicles don't run on air. I'm not trying to be Mr. Doom and Gloom here but, Many cities have failed (and miserably) for preparing. Yes I know that times are tough and times are hard but once the dominos start falling then it's almost impossible to stop them.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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The economy is going to shut down anyway. The only solution is for people to sit in place and not catch the virus. To do that they need to be told to prep. Could the whole country prep? Would there be enough food?
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Since we're talking about economic collapse, let's see if we can predict or provide us with an outline of how it will decline. Remember, not everyone will get sick at once, so I predict more and more stores won't be open. Since there's a news blackout, it won't collapse instantly, nor will there be riots, people in greater numbers will simply not go to work and die peacefully in their homes.
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I am not a prophet
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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O.K. I'm game, I'm no sociologist but as more people lose their homes (foreclosures), health care and jobs, less people will be inclined to seek medical care for minor issues that will eventually turn into serious problems and eventually financial ruin for them and their families. I would expect an economic collapse either prior to AF or in the early stages of it. With news blackouts and an inability to prep, and with most folks having to use their preps to get by, there wouldn't necessarily be a mad rush on the stores once people figure out what's going on, because by this time supplies will already be getting low due to "just in time" distribution networks. I doubt anyone will die peacefully in their homes, it'll be more like kicking and screaming all the way. On the flip side as people expire, their supplies will become public domain. Any other thoughts?
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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A lot depends on how long it delays. We could have another terrorist attack. The dollar could collapse and then the flu could be just the frosting on the cake. If it started tomorrow I think the blackout will end with h2h. The food markets will be stripped within 2 days of the first case in the US, maybe before if there is good foreign reporting. Hopefully they will be restocked quickly but as the cases grow and the true mortality rate becomes known they will be stripped again and stay that way. Hundreds of sick and dying people at the ER's will scare the mess out of people. The national guard will be out immediately, at the grocery and the hospitals. There were things learned from Katrina. I can also see habits dying hard. At first people may be encouraged to go to work. Before it is over there will be Marshall Law and curfews. That way anyone out will be considered a criminal and treated like one. This is what makes me angry. People with small children who could have something for them to eat but will not because no one is telling them to prepare. People are going to figure this out. They are going to be angry.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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To be honest, I haven't seen anyone die this year except two people - a 107 year old lady and one woman on the first floor who died in her sleep, I had just seen her two days before, it wasn't the flu more like a stroke. The growth of the flu will be slow, not the mathematical progression proposed in that movie that came out last year (Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America) At worst this flu season maybe some quarantined areas in major cities.
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I am not a prophet
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERMS 1 ,this is Johnray1 again. You seem to have the ability to put thing in there natural order as to how things will happen better than I do. I wait for and read your posts,because I think they are better than mine and they seem to put things in more order than I can. I thank you for your input and I ask that you continue it. I will probably not post any thing again,unless you ask me a guestion.The part about a lot of kicking and screaming should make your point,and I agree. Johnray1
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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It circled the globe 3 times in 18 months in 1918. It will move even faster today.
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Johnray1- Please don't stop posting because of me. I don't think any one of us has the whole picture. I left this forum for quite a while because of the trolls, spammers and frauds. And it seems to have settled down alot. This is just like in school-it's a group excercise not an individual one, everyone needs to participate if we expect pass this class. I've got to work today so Happy Turkey day to one and all, and be safe.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Lets face it - this is all just a guessing game. I don't think any of us doubts it's coming. The question is, when and how bad? A minor pandemic similar to Hong Kong or Asian flu would be bad for those affected, but nothing compared to a major one akin to the Spanish flu. In the worst case scenario, I think Suzi's right. If it made it's way out of it's country of origin before the patient carrying it was diagnosed, it could be around the world in a fraction of the time it took in 1918.
I believe the governments, banks and money markets have contingency plans in place which would freeze everything for the duration. Rents and mortgages would likely be put on hold - after all, it wouldn't be in anyone's interest to see a sickened, starving and dying population out on the streets. As far as civil unrest is concerned, I think one of the keys will be what the general population will see as an uncaring healthcare response. While we all know on this forum that there is no way the medical infrastructure can possibly cope with a major pandemic, to most people it will seem as though they've been abandoned when they either can't see a doctor, they're sent to a converted gym (as described by Terms1) or simply told to go home. Short term though, I think the trigger to widespread panic will be the shelves going bare, the water supply drying up, and the lights going off. Anybody living in a modern society like ours will freak out when their local Vons starts to look like a cold war era eastern bloc store - if it still has it's doors open. Compound that with the realization that clean water is no longer as close as the nearest faucet, the stove/lights/TV and computer aren't working, and the pantry and (warm) fridge have only a few days worth of uncooked food. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I hope that the number of respirators is a typo. Makes you wonder what they know, doesn't it?
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071122/thl-uk-britain-flu-8004a53_1.html |
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reality check
Valued Member Joined: May 15 2007 Location: CANADA Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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Finally...words of wisdom..ataboy jr
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"tell med the grasshoppers won"
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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Remember that the flu comes in waves, the first being the strongest and the last the weakest. Also, the infection is caused by coughing and sneezing, otherwise you could apparently be in the same room and never get infected. Not that I would trust that, but so I read.
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I am not a prophet
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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The second wave of the Spanish flu was the one with the highest mortality. That is probably a matter of chance with the continuing mutations. I just can't see it going from 60+ to less than 5%. It's like wishful thinking to have the worst case situation. I like the idea of the debts being frozen since I have a lot of them.
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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If your apartment manager is dead, I suppose you wouldn't have to pay rent. I'm just worried that electricity will cut off automatically by computer if you haven't paid your bill.
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I am not a prophet
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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I just emailed a Seattle city councilman who is in charge of utilities and asked him about whether the electricity will turn off automatically by computer if we have or cannot pay our bills. I also invited him to avian flu talk if he's interested in talking to those who are pandemic-aware.
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I am not a prophet
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERMS 1,I am not getting off this board because you are on it. I will just be posting any thing much less off because you seem to be doing a better job at it than I am. I am not upset about that,I am happy about that. Any time that I have anything to add or ask I will. I will continue to read this board every night,just like I have done for years now,I just feel like that you have more to teach all of us than I do. Johnray1
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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This is to the people who are worried about losing there electricity and/or their city water. Unless you live in a city,do not let this bother you. In a week,you never miss it.We have gone that long and longer after major snow and ice storms and even though I would rather have the utilities,believe me,they are a long way from being necessary inorder to live and to be happy. If you live in a major city,I do not know what it means,but I suspect that there are ways of easily getting water that you have not thought about yet. The only thing that worries me is running out of toilet paper. Johnray1
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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I find it a kind of interesting social commentary on our society when on "Black Friday", you have people fighting, taking cuts in line and generally acting the fool just to save $50.00 on a T.V. Just Wait and watch what happens when the food starts running low or the vaccine becomes available.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Levygoddess
Valued Member Joined: November 22 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 381 |
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I wonder myself if there will be a way to charge my computer. It may be the only link to the outside world...does anyone know how I can charge my computer battery?
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God put us here for a reason
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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If the power goes, don't expect to charge the laptop. however, if you google, you might find a solar power battery charger for the battery in your laptop
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I am not a prophet
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I was thinking the same thing myself this morning. They were showing people on CNN duking it out in the parking lot of a store as the doors opened. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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TERMS 1,you are correct again. I have seen peolple in complete panic,and it is scary.The time and places that I have seen people in complete panic is not important,but there are only two ways to stop them and one of them is by using massive force(that we do not want to see in this country) and the the other is to just get out of their was. The best and safest way is have at least some stores of food and water and then stay out of the way of the mobs. Johnray1
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Oooooh yeah. People in the healthcare field are people of action. Call a code in a hospital and it's like a day at the races-young and old everyone eventually shows up. When the AF shows up and if they continue with the above response they will cull their own herd early on. It's gonna be a case of pacing ourselves for the long run, due to a depleted work force, hostile/violent work environments and no rest or rehab. There's a lot of truth in the phrase Only fools rush in.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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TERMS 1
Adviser Group Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 172 |
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Suzi-They (whoever they are) say that what dosn't kill us, only makes us stronger. And from what I've read I agree with you on the second wave beeing worse than the first. Soooo if you manage to isolate yourself from wave #1, when the 2nd wave comes around it should have an even higher fatality rate for those that were never infected (during the 1st wave). For those that lived through the 1st wave getting sick on the second wave (in theory) shouldn't be as lethal as the first round or for the first timers, thus confering at least limited immunity (hopefully) for the previously infected. And NO I'm not advocating going out and intentionally contaminating yourselves.
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Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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Terms-It would be lucky to get it very early from the standpoint of surviving the infection but you would still have to live through its effects on society. It would be a shame to survive the virus and die at the hands of some desperate person who kills because he is afraid or needs something you have. Survivors will be valuable people though. They will be able to do things that will be risky for unexposed people to do. Did you watch the latest video? The one that showed on the Science Channel in Oct. If not do a search (try google videos or the phrase a possible look at the future) of this site and find the link so you can watch it online. It is very good and I've seen them all. I knew the survivor of the Sumatra family cluster got encephalitis but I did not know about the type that came 5 years after the pandemic. I wish I could show this video to everyone. My goal is to surround my family with prepared people, safe and calm prepared people.
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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I would like to know the correct answer to something that was on this board a few months,if any one even knows. The guestion that I would like to ask is that every one was saying that part of the British"Bird Flu"plan is to take all of their doctors and put them on military bases in order to keep the safe until a cure or vaccine was developed,which will take a year at the least. This was suppose to be done so that they would have doctors to treat people when a vaccine or cure was found. Does anyone know if there is any truth to this or not? Johnray1
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reality check
Valued Member Joined: May 15 2007 Location: CANADA Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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W |
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Suzi
Admin Group Joined: September 02 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2769 |
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I've never seen anything like that about the British docs though it does make sense. I do understand Realities' thoughts on their service to the society that has paid them well but they will be needed after it is over if only for surgeries and setting bones. Hopefully with anestetic. I did read something which said the British were considering locking their respirators in a closet before choosing between patients. Without drugs, protection equipment and the like it really does not matter who does the basic nursing. The patients are going to live or die. By the time symptoms show their family is already exposed. They might as well nurse them. The folks who survive the flu will form the search crews to find the sick who have no family. Those will go to the gyms.
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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reality check,I do not disagree with your reasoning and I really agree with it. But is all of the Doctors have been dead for 10 or 11 months before there is a vaccine or cure,who is going to give it properly because there is no mass treatment or vaccine at this time.Johnray1
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johngardner1
Valued Member Joined: August 20 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 678 |
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I suspect conspiracy because we already have a bird flu vaccine for the one currently going around, and yet it's taking months longer than the regular flu vaccine, which I got last month. What in the heck is going on?
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I am not a prophet
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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johngardnerq1,I can answer that question. The vaccine that they have now for the current form of "Bird Flu" will not work if this virus mutates to be easily spread between humnan. It will actually be a different virus for all practical purposes.Because of that,a new vaccine will have to be developed for that virus and it takes 6 to 12 months to develop a new vaccine and that is only if everything goes right. I would not even want the first vaccine off the assebly line.Every time a virus mutates,you have to start all over again. Johnray1
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