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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

heat-related mega-disaster scenario

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 02 2018 at 11:23pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwLz7oVBfw Paul Beckwith discussing "Wet Bulb scenario".

DJ-With 100% humidity, 35C duration 6 hours a healthy person is dead. A lower humidity, higher temperature-longer duration can become a mega-killer. 

As Paul Beckwith points out-at higher temperatures machines start to malfunction. Air may become to thin for (some) aircraft, electricity may fail. 

A "doom & gloom" scenario could be a very hot and humid day (could be anywere on this planet) with power outage. A town in this scenario could be full of live in the morning and out of live the same evening during a worst case "Wet Bulb"scenario. 

People would start feeling uncomfortable at 11 A.M. , taking a rest at 1 P.M.- fall a sleep and simply will not wake up on a massive scale. 

During heat-waves in the US and Europe this scenario killed elderly and chronicly ill on a large scale. The official reasons for their dead was the illness/age. 

The 2003 heatwave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave may have killed over 70.000 Europeans. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave killed over 700 in Chicago in 5 days. 

"We" did learn from these past events-but urban populations did grow, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island can be limited by more water and gras, trees etc. in the urban enviroment. When the trees die, temperatures go up, the urban heat effect can become a killer.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 02 2018 at 11:57pm
DJ- When such a heat-related disaster would take place in a "not-so-open"country; Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia-and mainly hit poor-unwanted by the elite/regime-minorities such a mega-event would not even get the international news. People just vanish from some statistics....

The US and Europe most likely would under estimate the fatalities. Public order, avoiding mass panic, and economic continuity would be the main concern of the oil companies ruling the local governments. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2018 at 10:12am
Thanks DJ for that information. More background to read: It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity — really

Quote ....They found that as the world gets warmer, the heat index increases more than the air temperature. In other words, how hot it feels increases faster than the mercury in the thermometer rises. This means that looking at temperature alone underestimates how much people will suffer from extreme heat as climate change proceeds.

The analysis shows that the increasing heat index will especially magnify the effects of heat waves in the tropics, particularly southeast Asia......


By the 2080s, wet bulb temperatures of 32 °C could occur 1 or 2 days a year in the southeastern United States, and 3 to 5 days a year in parts of South America, Africa, India, and China. ...

At a wet bulb temperature of 32 °C, sustained physical labor becomes impossible. Wet bulb temperatures that exceed the body’s skin temperature, about 35 °C, are likely to be dangerous even when a person is at rest. At least, that’s what scientists believe – we don’t really know what happens to people under such conditions, because they are so rare in the current climate.....

Fortunately, if carbon emissions are low or moderate, wet bulb temperatures of 35 °C are likely to remain rare.

Still, “Lots of people would crumble well before you reach wet-bulb temperatures of 32 °C , or anything close,”

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2018 at 3:50pm
as i understand it ,

the body cools itself by evaporation ,

ie. when you sweat the evaporation of the sweat cools you ,

in high humidity the sweat cant evaporate hence you cant cool down and you overheat ,

when your organs reach 40c+ you die......

never mind the animals that have no sweat glands..................

its not all about the humans...............

we might be able to take cover..................... 

to face starvation !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

where we live the  temp get to over 40c but we have a very low humidity and its easy to move around ,but in say Sri Lanka at 30c and a high humidity ,things get hard to do



12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2018 at 9:59pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8990832, https://www.quora.com/Are-heavy-overweight-or-obese-people-more-heat-intolerant-than-thin-people

The ability to deal with climate change, heat, for a major part of the GLOBAL population is under pressure. One can discuss what the BMI should be as an optimum. This may be very individual (with a lot of historic data maybe ignored. In World War 2 a lot of people had to deal with extreme conditions. Can one relate the BMI to a survival-rate ? As far as I (DJ) know a BMI between 25 and 28 may-often-provide enough reserves to deal with extreme conditions (you did already "eat" before disaster struck-carry your own food in your body). 

Dealing with extreme heat and humidity needs healthy bodies. With obesity and heat/humidity going up the combination is another disasterous combination.

DJ-Aging of population does not help either. (And a mix of obesity and aging in itself already is a disaster on a global scale. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity Obesity is BMI=30+ ????

DJ-Just like the "wars on drugs, terror, the "battle against obesity" seems to make matters worse. Looking at the results "free market economies" are a cause for obesity. One could claim "socialism is a cause for starvation" but there may be a middle road in between. Historic data indicates that during "socialism" some East European/Russian populations were healthier than they are now. 

Dealing with climate change is a political discussion with many aspects. Keeping population as fit as possible saves a lot of care-costs. Governments can play a major role in it. (From trying to limit the use of cars, promote bikes and public transport to not sell candy in schools. )
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2018 at 1:30am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKAAn0Iy2wY Paul Beckwith:

The average persons core body temperature is 98.6 F (37 C). Human skin is a few degrees colder, being about 35 C (95 F). Heat travels from hot regions to cold regions, according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Thus when the wet-bulb temperature, which is the temperature at 100% humidity, reaches 35 C (95 C) the human body can no longer shed heat (sweat no longer evaporates), thus core body temperature rises, and the healthiest person, sitting in the shade, dies in about 6 hours. The rest of us (young, old, medicated, out-of shape, obese, etc...) are SOL at even lower wet-bulb temperatures. Adaptation would require living inside with AC, living in caves, or wearing cooled suits; who wants to do that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdmUDCifIko">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdmUDCifIko DJ-I am against fatalism, adicted to "hopium" and "here-and-now"-but that does not make me close my eyes for "worst-case-scenario's-realism". "The world" failed to take serious steps to counter climatechange. "An elite-in-power" even denies climate change, fossil fuels as their power base.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2018 at 2:08pm

Florida reels after worst toxic algae outbreak in more than a decade ravages the coastline battering tourism and decimating local endangered wildlife


...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................The heat triggers many different disaster senarios.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2018 at 3:18pm
i think the main problem with people understanding  "global warming ","climate change " is they think ,

"what's the big deal,the temperature goes up and down all the time,come winter or summer"

and also they fail to understand that the chemistry of the planet was "Neutral"

the Atmosphere was "Neutral",

This was the case,

 For tens of millions of years before modern humans  came alone and started digging up and pumping out fossil fuels,

Adding to the Atmosphere all the CARBON that has been stored for Billions of years virtually OVERNIGHT  in geological terms ,

 How many people on this site Know where Oil,Gas and Coal come from ,

I.E what made them ????,and how??

and how long it took for them to be made into  that  form ??


 Remember it's not just the burning of these fuels ,the process of extraction releases just as much Methane .

How many people in the world know?? ,when most are illiterate ,or uneducated,or just can't won't face facts.............

that is what we up against,


12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2018 at 10:37pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

 How many people on this site Know where Oil,Gas and Coal come from ,

I.E what made them ????,and how??

and how long it took for them to be made into  that  form ??




If one looks at the Official Reserves for Saudi Arabia which have remained steady for years despite pumping huge amounts of oil the one must say that they are being replenished from deep within the earth's core.  Wink   The idea that they would make up figures to manipulate their OPEC quota is unthinkable.  Big smileOuch    [/sarcasm]


Three reported deaths in Spain due to the heatwave
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2018 at 4:19am
(DJ-Internet, my PC-seems to have some problems.....)

Fossil-fuels are a power base. There is a constant fight between the (main) sellers; US, Saudi Arabia and Russia and the main buyers; China, India (and EU). Linking the currency (petro-dollar, yuan, is a way to get control.) 

The switch to renewable energy may take so much time climate change will get a lot worse. 

It is not the average change that will become a mega-killer, it is the "peak"-extremes. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html


https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/07/31/arctic-circle-temperatures-above-90-degrees/23493422/?a_dgi=aolshare_facebook&guccounter=1# When the Arctic would lose most of the (sea)ice the outlook would become very bad. The Polar-ice-caps keep the planet at a certain temperature. Losing the ice means temperatures going up vertical. (Already the jet-stream and methane is very disrupted-with already catastrophic consequences.) 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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