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heat-related mega-disaster scenario |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95797 |
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Posted: August 02 2018 at 11:23pm |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwLz7oVBfw Paul Beckwith discussing "Wet Bulb scenario".
DJ-With 100% humidity, 35C duration 6 hours a healthy person is dead. A lower humidity, higher temperature-longer duration can become a mega-killer. As Paul Beckwith points out-at higher temperatures machines start to malfunction. Air may become to thin for (some) aircraft, electricity may fail. A "doom & gloom" scenario could be a very hot and humid day (could be anywere on this planet) with power outage. A town in this scenario could be full of live in the morning and out of live the same evening during a worst case "Wet Bulb"scenario. People would start feeling uncomfortable at 11 A.M. , taking a rest at 1 P.M.- fall a sleep and simply will not wake up on a massive scale. During heat-waves in the US and Europe this scenario killed elderly and chronicly ill on a large scale. The official reasons for their dead was the illness/age. The 2003 heatwave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave may have killed over 70.000 Europeans. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave killed over 700 in Chicago in 5 days. "We" did learn from these past events-but urban populations did grow, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island can be limited by more water and gras, trees etc. in the urban enviroment. When the trees die, temperatures go up, the urban heat effect can become a killer.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95797 |
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DJ- When such a heat-related disaster would take place in a "not-so-open"country; Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia-and mainly hit poor-unwanted by the elite/regime-minorities such a mega-event would not even get the international news. People just vanish from some statistics....
The US and Europe most likely would under estimate the fatalities. Public order, avoiding mass panic, and economic continuity would be the main concern of the oil companies ruling the local governments.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Thanks DJ for that information. More background to read: It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity — really
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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as i understand it ,
the body cools itself by evaporation , ie. when you sweat the evaporation of the sweat cools you , in high humidity the sweat cant evaporate hence you cant cool down and you overheat , when your organs reach 40c+ you die...... never mind the animals that have no sweat glands.................. its not all about the humans............... we might be able to take cover..................... to face starvation !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! where we live the temp get to over 40c but we have a very low humidity and its easy to move around ,but in say Sri Lanka at 30c and a high humidity ,things get hard to do |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95797 |
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8990832, https://www.quora.com/Are-heavy-overweight-or-obese-people-more-heat-intolerant-than-thin-people
The ability to deal with climate change, heat, for a major part of the GLOBAL population is under pressure. One can discuss what the BMI should be as an optimum. This may be very individual (with a lot of historic data maybe ignored. In World War 2 a lot of people had to deal with extreme conditions. Can one relate the BMI to a survival-rate ? As far as I (DJ) know a BMI between 25 and 28 may-often-provide enough reserves to deal with extreme conditions (you did already "eat" before disaster struck-carry your own food in your body). Dealing with extreme heat and humidity needs healthy bodies. With obesity and heat/humidity going up the combination is another disasterous combination. DJ-Aging of population does not help either. (And a mix of obesity and aging in itself already is a disaster on a global scale. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity Obesity is BMI=30+ ???? DJ-Just like the "wars on drugs, terror, the "battle against obesity" seems to make matters worse. Looking at the results "free market economies" are a cause for obesity. One could claim "socialism is a cause for starvation" but there may be a middle road in between. Historic data indicates that during "socialism" some East European/Russian populations were healthier than they are now. Dealing with climate change is a political discussion with many aspects. Keeping population as fit as possible saves a lot of care-costs. Governments can play a major role in it. (From trying to limit the use of cars, promote bikes and public transport to not sell candy in schools. )
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95797 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKAAn0Iy2wY Paul Beckwith:
The average persons core body temperature is 98.6 F (37 C). Human skin is a few degrees colder, being about 35 C (95 F). Heat travels from hot regions to cold regions, according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Thus when the wet-bulb temperature, which is the temperature at 100% humidity, reaches 35 C (95 C) the human body can no longer shed heat (sweat no longer evaporates), thus core body temperature rises, and the healthiest person, sitting in the shade, dies in about 6 hours. The rest of us (young, old, medicated, out-of shape, obese, etc...) are SOL at even lower wet-bulb temperatures. Adaptation would require living inside with AC, living in caves, or wearing cooled suits; who wants to do that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdmUDCifIko">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdmUDCifIko DJ-I am against fatalism, adicted to "hopium" and "here-and-now"-but that does not make me close my eyes for "worst-case-scenario's-realism". "The world" failed to take serious steps to counter climatechange. "An elite-in-power" even denies climate change, fossil fuels as their power base.
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Florida reels after worst toxic algae outbreak in more than a decade ravages the coastline battering tourism and decimating local endangered wildlifeSource and full article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6026951/Florida-reels-toxic-algae-outbreak-ravages-coastline-leaving-marine-life-peril.html ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................The heat triggers many different disaster senarios.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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i think the main problem with people understanding "global warming ","climate change " is they think ,
"what's the big deal,the temperature goes up and down all the time,come winter or summer" and also they fail to understand that the chemistry of the planet was "Neutral" the Atmosphere was "Neutral", This was the case, For tens of millions of years before modern humans came alone and started digging up and pumping out fossil fuels, Adding to the Atmosphere all the CARBON that has been stored for Billions of years virtually OVERNIGHT in geological terms , How many people on this site Know where Oil,Gas and Coal come from , I.E what made them ????,and how?? and how long it took for them to be made into that form ?? Remember it's not just the burning of these fuels ,the process of extraction releases just as much Methane . How many people in the world know?? ,when most are illiterate ,or uneducated,or just can't won't face facts............. that is what we up against, |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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If one looks at the Official Reserves for Saudi Arabia which have remained steady for years despite pumping huge amounts of oil the one must say that they are being replenished from deep within the earth's core. The idea that they would make up figures to manipulate their OPEC quota is unthinkable. [/sarcasm] |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95797 |
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(DJ-Internet, my PC-seems to have some problems.....)
Fossil-fuels are a power base. There is a constant fight between the (main) sellers; US, Saudi Arabia and Russia and the main buyers; China, India (and EU). Linking the currency (petro-dollar, yuan, is a way to get control.) The switch to renewable energy may take so much time climate change will get a lot worse. It is not the average change that will become a mega-killer, it is the "peak"-extremes. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2018-08-02-july-warmth-boosted-southern-california-water-temperatures-warm-summer A mix of high temperature-high humidity-AND high winds is a major risk. https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/07/31/arctic-circle-temperatures-above-90-degrees/23493422/?a_dgi=aolshare_facebook&guccounter=1# When the Arctic would lose most of the (sea)ice the outlook would become very bad. The Polar-ice-caps keep the planet at a certain temperature. Losing the ice means temperatures going up vertical. (Already the jet-stream and methane is very disrupted-with already catastrophic consequences.)
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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