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'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions sla

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:25am
None are alarmists that I know of. That is the thing with scientists, they go on facts and so alarmism has no place in science. As to being alarmed: most of them are, although not for us, but for our children and grandchildren. A few have been alarmed for some time. Hubby spoke to one in a complete panic 11 or 12 years ago (he was in the arctic on a research trip - tyhe scientist, not Hubby).

The modern warm period has also not peaked. Locally, different countries have seen peaks come and go, but overall the trend is clearly upward even if you exclude the poles from the data. Include the poles and the trend is not only up, but accelerating; it even appears exponential (which is actually impossible, but that is how it appears on graphs).

Distortions of these figures appear all across the web. Genuine alarmists would have you believe the end result would turn Earth into another Venus (which is extreemly improbable) exterminating all life. Those with a vested interest in fossil fuels point to local cooling (a product of the weakening jet stream, which is being diminished by the increasing polar temperatures) as "proof" there is no warming. Both are almost certainly very wrong and should be ashamed of themselves for obscuring the genuine facts, which are alarming enough!

To avoid these despicable benders-of-the-truth, the best approach is to stick to the known and trusted sites, like NOAAH. If you do read something from another source, find out who funds them before you swallow the results/conclusions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 12:15pm
I could not agree more about the farming practices.

Deforestation causes desertification and exacerbates warming. In fact, most of our high-yield farming practices accumulate a planetary cost.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:16pm
the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

yes there are natural causes ,

we are entering a cooling period now as the earth moves away from the sun ,this happens every 11 years ,

and yes the climate has been in a very calm Period over the last 10,000 years or so,

however ,i still maintain that pumping vast amounts of Stored CO2 and other gases into an enclosed space ,IE our atmosphere ,that has no place to go and at the same time clearing vast areas of the best co2 filters ever ,you are in trouble,

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Techmophobe my point was much simpler than that...   I was just arguing that what ever they are claiming as global warming can be explained by us coming out of the min ice age.   The glaciers started to retreat 150 years before industrial greenhouse production ever became a problem.



I also agree with this. Earth is still climbing out of the last major glaciation and Ice Age. The Pleistocene Epoch is typically defined as the time period that began about 2.6 million years ago and lasted until about 11,700 years ago, and 11,700 years in planetary terms is "yesterday."

However, the physics still holds true. We are barfing carbon products (carbon dioxide, methane, CFCs and others) into the atmosphere at an alarming rate! 9.795 gigatons per year. Sad.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:52pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

...

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......




I think I have a fundamentally different view as to who and what man is and our role on the planet as to many people here. What I hear is that nature and the natural order is good, humanity not so much.   It is almost as if we are an accident on the planet. We belong here.   The earth is ours to enjoy and use.   We are part of nature not separate from it.

The only solutions I hear our ones that would take us back to a pre- industrial type civilization.   Any legit solutions need to further technological progress.   Is it really worth it to have a slightly cooler planet if we are also living in a very primitive society?

"Humans are the problem" I see this thinking all over this site. I think it is downright evil. I keep hearing "the world would be a better if half of us would be killed off" how can you say that?   It is like admitting defeat. What a horrible world that would be... I would never want to see that day. New technology and innovation are the answer not mass genocide.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 12:28am
Very interesting web site to check out:http://www.surfacestations.org/

These people have been auditing our weather stations and the results are a bit alarming IMO.   Two things have been going on... the heat island effect is intensifying, and the placement of most of our weather stations is very poor. You guys are talking about 1c of warming and I see these weather stations and all the variations and just pure noise in the data, please forgive me if I am skeptical.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 2:33am
The planet belongs to all it's inhabitants,it wasn't put here as our playground,and yes we are a part of it, but we are to successful,and we are damaging it to a point where huge swathes will become uninhabitable,

What happens when, in another thread a report said 400million Chinese people will have to move from Beijing ( latitude 39.9042° N, 116.4074° E)to where ? And that figure is only a drop in the ocean of humanity that will be forced to move or die,

Billions of people will be forced to move,

I can see all the USA (that's only 360million) moving to the extreme south, of south America away from the heat ,can you see that happening ,because the Chinese are already planning for it.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:21am
I have a solution which still allows us to progress technologically --- birth control. Once upon a time our life expectancy was around 35. Most of that difference was childhood mortality and death for the mother during the process. Then there were all the bacterial diseases we now have antibiotics for. People had loads of children because they had no choice. More died than survived.

Returning to any of that horror is a bad idea!

Now we live into our 70s as a rule; some live far longer and the vast majority of our children survive. But our society is still in the stone age. Most of our polutants would do no harm if we simply used less. Even plastics rot eventually - it takes thousands of years but it happens.

Our entire course of life is changed from that of our ancestors. Yet we still breed like rabbits. Why shouldn't we if bunnies can? Well a rabbit in the wild has a life expectancy of about 6 months. A few live longer but most don't make it to adulthood.

So why not change our ways? We learned not to club each other when annoyed - mostly. We learned not to rape - usually. We learned not to steal - for the most part. Civilization progressed - although we needed laws to control us; Thank You Hammurabi! But we still can't master this one. STUPID CAVEMEN!!! We do not seem to be able to take that last step. Well, we are getting what we earned.

We are not the owners of the planet. We are its custodians. We are making a rubbish heap of our only truly worthwhile asset. We should be asshamed, but instead we continue unabated. Well, Earth itself will either die entirely, or wipe us out. That is what you do with cancer - the only part of the body which breeds without control.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:33am
Ps. Your point about the weather stations is valid, logical and appropriate.

I don't think there is much heat island effect in the Arctic or Antartic though. That is where the biggest rises are. More importantly, around there are the permafrost lands where the methane hydrates are stored. Sorry, were stored. As the permafrost melts, the methane is released. That is 30 X as warming as CO2. SCARY!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:55am
just check out what other cites are on the same latitude as Beijing,

alot of people going to have to move ,

away from the north and south 43 parallel ,

the equator will be burnt to a crisp................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 5:31pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:02pm
https://paulbeckwith.net/2018/08/12/earth-climate-system-terrible-trajectories-to-hothouse/

DJ-Paul Beckwith on YouTube discussing another climate change study. In my (and his) opinion this study may be very optimistic. Recent Arctic Earthquakes may indicate a far worse escalation-massive methane release.

The global heatwave/extreme weather is effecting foodproduction and distribution. Famine is on its way for several countries. The Totten glacier (a.o.) in East Antarctica may be moving-same amount of ice as Greenland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dpEHWY0mRw:
Ten years ago Timothy Lenton spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state. They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:31pm
It is the speed of change which carries the biggest risks,

As sea levels rise and equatorial regions desertify, vast areas become habitable too (Siberia, Antartica,Greenland). But they lack the trapings of civilization we are all used to (roads, houses, resevoirs, sewers, hospitals, factories etc.). Constructing that lot in a hurry is an impossibly big ask. Where do you house the builders? How do you feed them? All of that is before we consider the political barriers to moving in.

The wild world also adapts, but needs time or assistance to do so.

The rising sea level problem also has solutions - polders. But they should be built now as construction is easier whilst the areas are still dry.

The world and the human race will both survive. I am certain of that. Civilization as we know it - no chance! Physics is quite clear about where we are headed. The early carboniferous period had a warm/humid climate and all the carbon we are busy releasing once more. As the carbon was originally deposited the world cooled. We have simply reversed the trend.

You could even argue that "Gaia" is using us to warm up and avoid those bloody cold ice ages! Not that she needs us much after the job is done.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 1:37am
Deep Thinker, with all respect-I do think you may be correct at some points (the way average global temperatures are taken at ground stations) but you may be ignoring the essentials. (temperatures, etc. are measured by satellites, CO2 and other green house gasses going up).

There are some basic steps consumers should take (since most governments are failing-Trump at least is not telling lies that he is taking climate change serious. Canada, Germany are building pipelines for fossil fuels, India and China need all the energy they can get (including from North Korea (coal) and Iran). Eating less meat, using less fossil fuels, would make a big difference.

In my opinion there is every reason to be very alarmed. Nothing wrong with "alarmists" maybe those who claim there is not a problem are a bigger problem.

There are several people on the internet busy on climate change. Paul Beckwith is putting a lot of info on You Tube. Robert Scribler (in some opinions more moderate) is also very busy; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXPrRy_QYso

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wQ9nG0IXY and https://www.jasonbox.net/news/ Dr. Jason Box is another source of info-going to the Arctic to see what is happening.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2018 at 2:44pm
Indonesia’s capital sinking by up to 15cm a year, new research shows
IT’S home to 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities is disappearing — and it could be wiped off the map in 30 years.

Ben Graham
news.com.auAUGUST 19, 20184:58PM
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IT’S one of the most densely populated cities in the world and home to more than 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities could be virtually wiped off the map in 30 years.

That’s because Jakarta — Indonesia’s sprawling capital — is one of the fastest-sinking cities in the world, meaning large swathes of it could almost be entirely submerged by 2050.

It’s a grim new prediction from experts at Bandung Institute of Technology (BIT), who say about 95 per cent of North Jakarta will be underwater in the next 32 years — forcing its 1.8 million residents to flee their homes.

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The megacity sits on a swampy plain that has sunk more than 4m over the past three decades and it is so low that seven of the city’s sewage-choked rivers actually have to flow uphill to reach Jakarta Bay.

It is now so bad that the BIT estimates the city is sinking by an average of 1-15cm a year and almost half the city now sits below sea level.

The situation is particularly dire in North Jakarta, a port city which has sunk 2.5m in 10 years and continues to sink by as much as 25cm a year in some parts — that’s more than double the global average for coastal megacities.

Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty Images
Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

One of the municipality’s residents Fortuna Sophia said, at first glance, she can’t tell her luxurious villa with a sea view is sinking.

However, she’s lived there for four years and it has already flooded several times. Ominous cracks have also begun to appear on her home’s walls and pillars every six months.


“We just have to keep fixing it,” she told the BBC. “The maintenance men say the cracks are caused by the shifting of the ground.

“The seawater flows in and covers the swimming pool entirely. We have to move all our furniture up to the first floor.”

Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google Maps
Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google MapsSource:Supplied

If vast sections of Jakarta — which generates more than 20 per cent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product — were to be submerged, it would create an economic nightmare for the country’s 261 million people.

Robert Sianipar, a former top official from the co-ordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, told Reuters the impact of North Jakarta disappearing would be unthinkable.

“If we abandon North Jakarta, that would cost $220 billion in assets — not to count the number of people and productivity that would have to be replaced,” he said.

BIT lead researcher Heri Andreas said the sinking is partly down to the city’s unreliable piped water. Most areas suffer problems with availability of piped water, leaving residents with no choice but to pump water from aquifers deep underground.

However, when this groundwater is pumped up, the land above sinks and subsides.

“The walkways are like waves, curving up and down. People can trip and fall,” Ridwan of Muara Baru, who lives in one of the worst affected areas, told ASEAN Economist.

Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim
Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad IbrahimSource:AP

About three-quarters of residents rely on groundwater.

Reuters reports many of them are refusing to connect to the piped water distribution system because it is more expensive, is not always available and sometimes looks dirty coming out of the tap.

Experts say the only way to stop the city going underwater is to stop all groundwater extraction and solely rely on other sources of water, such as rain or river water or piped water from man-made reservoirs.

It all has serious repercussions for the city’s residents who have already seen increased flooding in recent years and this is predicted to worsen as climate change causes sea levels to rise.

Recorded floods and severe storms in South-East Asia have risen sixfold, from fewer than 20 from 1960 to 1969 up to nearly 120 from 2000 to 2008, according to an Asian Development Bank study.

In February, more than 6500 residents in low-lying areas in Jakarta were evacuated to shelters following torrential rains which caused widespread floods across the Indonesian capital and landslides in satellite cities. They were among more than 11,000 people who were affected by the floods, officials said.


However, it was a devastating mega-storm in February 2007 which opened the Indonesian Government’s eyes and forced it into action.

A strong monsoon storm coincided with a high tide and overwhelmed ramshackle coastal defences, pushing a wall of water from Jakarta Bay into the capital.

It was the first time a storm surge from the sea had flooded the city. Nearly half of Jakarta was covered by as much as 4m of muddy water.

At least 76 people were killed and 590,000 were left homeless. The cost of the damage reached $544 million.

However, none of this has deterred the property developers. More and more luxury apartments have populated the North Jakarta skyline regardless of the risks — meaning new residents are increasingly moving into the sinking area.

Indonesia’s Association of Housing Development chief Eddy Ganefo told the BBC he had called for an end to development but “so long as we can sell apartments, development will continue”.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2018 at 3:22pm
'Climate change moving faster than we are,' says UN Secretary General
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent
10 September 2018
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California saw intense wildfires throughout this summer
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has said that if the world doesn't change course by 2020, we run the risk of runaway climate change.

Mr Guterres said he was alarmed by the paralysis of world leaders on what he called the "defining issue" of our time.

He wants heads of government to come to New York for a special climate conference next September.

The call comes amid growing concerns over the slow pace of UN negotiations.

Mr Guterres painted a grim picture of the impacts of climate change that he says have been felt all over the world this year, with heatwaves, wildfires, storms and floods leaving a trail of destruction.

Corals are dying, he said, the oceans are becoming more acidic, and there are growing conflicts over dwindling resources.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are at their highest level in three million years.

Despite the fact that the world agreed on a plan to tackle climate change in Paris in 2015, Mr Guterres said the world is way off track to achieve the modest goals of the pact.

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'Hogwash'
Despite the dire situation, the world could still tackle climate change effectively, he said. Saying it was too expensive to do so was "hogwash".

"For every dollar spent restoring degraded forests, as much as $30 can be recouped in economic benefits and poverty reduction," Mr Guterres said.

Image copyrightEUROPANEWSWIRE/GADO
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UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres
The world has the tools, and the ability. Renewables are cost-competitive with coal and oil, he said. By 2030, wind and solar could power more than a third of Europe.

But the lack of decisive political leadership was hampering everything, he said.

Calling for global leaders to meet with him at a special summit in New York in September next year, Mr Guterres argued this would give the world the push it needs at a critical moment.

It comes just before the countries that have signed the Paris agreement will review and increase their commitments to cut carbon.

Progress on that road is currently stalled. UN negotiators met in Bangkok last week to try and push the process forward. But arguments between rich and poor nations over money have seen tempers rise and ambition decline.

Delegates will meet again in Katowice in Poland in December to try to finalise the rule book for the Paris pact, but the omens are not good.

In his speech Mr Guterres warned that "we cannot allow Katowice to remind us of Copenhagen," referencing the infamous failed meeting in the Danish capital in 2009.

Many observers believe that the influence of US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement and his general scepticism towards climate change and multilateralism has soured the atmosphere in the UN talks.

"The US attempts to slow down this process should come as no surprise," said Jesse Bragg from the non-governmental organisation, Corporate Accountability.

"It has a long history of watering down and undermining multilateral agreements. But, in leading the charge to block practically every discussion on finance for the Paris guidelines, the US administration is threatening the future of the agreement and multilateralism itself."

Image copyrightIISD/ENB - KIARA WORTH
Image caption
Climate change protesters at a recent UN meeting in Thailand
Mr Guterres says he is committing himself and the UN to the effort of transforming the political landscape to tame the threat of climate change. He pointed to the forthcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on how to keep the world from warming by more that 1.5 degrees C, which he says will be a sobering assessment.

"We are careering towards the edge of the abyss," Mr Guterres said. "Our fate is in our own hands."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2018 at 4:42pm

Hi Carbon,

Glad to know someone else has the brains to actually understand what is going on. I am 74 years old and I left school at 15 and during my last year of schooling we were already being taught that the Earth's climate was becoming more equable.

Now I am a master silviculturist and when I moved to Scotland 25 years ago in NE Scotland my sister was farming 16 acres of hillside and the only trees that would grow effectively were larch and spruce and black birch. On the lower ground of course oak, ash, rowan and beech were the natural inhabitants of the land.

I bought her land off of her 10 years ago. We have been getting more moderate winters ever since I came up here. By moderate I mean snowfall of up to 8 feet and a winter record temperature at the highest point of our land of -23*C. Since then the snowfall has continuously reduced each winter and the temperature has risen until last winter when the lowest temperature reached was -9*C and two inches of snow fell. I am growing olives, figs, pinenuts and grapevines outside successfully.   I also have a pet eucalyptus tree and quite a few New Zealand and mediterannean plants in my garden.

We have had an extreme shortage of water (lack of rainfall) for the last 4 years, increasing in severity and summer temperatures that belong in the more extreme mediterannean areas.

Unfortunately, I left politics in the 80s or else I would be knocking the heads of quite a few politicians together. The scientific fraternity needs its arse kicked! As (HALLELUJA) they are just beginning to realise that ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland in the Arctic area does not only cause flooding by its melting and filling the sea, but it also causes isostatic readjustment in those areas which will cause vulcanism, earthquakes and a hell of a lot more increase in ice melt.

We have already passed the tipping point and unfortunately, those who do not have the brains, finances or knowledge to prepare for the result of it, are doomed to suffer the extreemly dangerous consequences.

The last thing we need is a prat like Trump!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2018 at 5:45pm
I think they do realise what's happening,to do anything now would mean millions of people out of work, riots,civil unrest,

Techno and you are in the best place,way up north away from the equator,iv told my kids to move to Tazzie,or NZ,

if the Chinese are planning to move 400million people away from the 38th parallel,you can bet this is very serious,400 million that's the population of the USA ,I reckon the equator,north and south to about the 38/43 parallel will be unlivable........

Billions on the move.......

The Earth will Abide....we might not....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2018 at 5:48pm
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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