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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

How long do we have-part two

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 22 2016 at 11:08pm
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/01/greenhouse-gas-levels-and-temperatures-keep-rising.html

Some 0.3°C warming had already taken place by the year 1900, as discussed in an earlier post, so in 2015 temperatures were already 1.43°C above pre-industral levels. Moreover, it is now 2016 and temperatures are still rising. In other words, it now is already more than 1.5°C or 2.7°F warmer than in pre-industrial times, as that earlier post already concluded. 

When that same trendline is extended into the future, it points at a 2°C or 3.6°F global temperature rise before the year 2030, a rise of about 4°C or 7.2°F by 2040, and a 10°C or 18°F rise before the year 2060. Furthermore, at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures are rising faster than globally. The image below illustrates this, showing that a 10°C rise could hit the Arctic by 2030.


The reason for such a dramatic rise in the Arctic is feedbacks, as discussed as the feedbacks page. And the biggest danger of such rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic is that large methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean will further heat up the atmosphere, at first in hotspots over the Arctic, and eventually around the globe, while also causing huge temperature swings and extreme weather events, contributing to increasing depletion of fresh water and food supply.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2016 at 11:27pm
I hope this kind of models have it all wrong. That nature provides a "counter-ballance"to stop temperature rise at a certain level, the Sun gets even less active than it is now (the Sun is now "cooling" the Earth, Sun-activity would give us more of a mini-ice-age that it can explain the warming). 

The above mentioned rise in temperature means rise of sealevel. This will not go smoothly but by storms. Melting of land-ice in Greenland, Antarctica and other regions (glaciers, Siberia, Canada) is increasing much faster than expected. 

My guess is that before 2020 there will be another Fukushima. Nuclear-power-plants need water for cooling. But rising sealevel means that also rivers get problems putting melting glaciers-water to the sea. An extreme hurricane or severe flooding is to be expected in the coming years, most nuclear plants may not do that good as the nuclear energy promotors claim. Fukushima proberbly itself is already a very big problem. In combination with economic problems and rapid climate change (those plants were not meant for those risks) nuclear power "problems" are unsolvable. Radiation is already a big problem now, a further large accident will make radiation itself a mega-killer. 

A 10 degrees temperature rise in the Arctic by 2030 means further sealevel rise. Most cities are near coastlines and will be flooded by then. 

There are models with "boiling oceans"in 2042, a "Venus-climate" by 2090. But for humans-according to these kind of models-live may be in serious danger much sooner. 

Can we stop it ? I hope so ! We should try everything we can for the next generations. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2016 at 11:29pm

Introduction


Methane formed by organisms in the water becomes trapped in the fabric of water ice crystals when it freezes and is stable below about 300 meters depth in the Arctic Ocean (Light and Solana, 2012). There are such massive methane reserves below the Arctic Ocean floor that they represent around 100 times the amount that is required to cause a Permian style major extinction event, should the subsea Arctic methane be released into the atmosphere (Light and Solana, 2012). There are also giant reservoirs of mantle methane, originally sealed in by shallow methane hydrate plugs in fractures cutting the Arctic seafloor (Light 2014). Unfortunately for us, global warming has heated up the oceanic currents fed by the Gulf Stream flowing into the Arctic, causing massive destabilization of the subsea methane hydrates and fault seals and releasing increasing volumes of methane directly into the atmosphere (Light 2014).

The methane concentration - temperature correlation from Polar ice core data is graphically illustrated in Figures 1 and 2a from Morrison (2012).

This correlation which goes back to 420,000 years ago shows that when the mean methane content of the atmosphere hit 1.79 ppm/v (1790 ppb) it produced a (delayed) methane eruption induced atmospheric temperature of some 20°C.

This is precisely the temperature of the giant methane-rich clouds that are now circulating the Arctic in 2012 - 2013 (Yurganov, 2013; Carana 2012, 2013) indicating that here, the delayed methane temperature anomaly has already caught up with the Arctic mean atmospheric concentrations (Figure 2b and 2c).
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2016 at 9:31pm
It’s just that simple...
1. Global warming is real. It’s here and it’s happening “faster than anyone expected”. It has entered the abrupt phase. Abrupt? Yes, last climate change took several thousand years to unfold, this time it’s going to take decades.
2. Global warming is exponential. This means that it is slow to start but once it accelerates, it’s going to change the face of this planet. Remember: “The Hotter It Gets, The Faster It Gets Hotter”. The temperature will keep rising at an ever accelaring rate until it reaches some equilibrium. Right now the equilibrium looks to be 6-8C above pre-industrial levels. The last time such a temperature difference happened (8C below normal), New York was under a mile of ice. With 6C above normal, Paris is in the middle of a dessert.
3. Global warming is weather mayhem. Many think the weather will get warmer. While it’s true when it comes to average temperatures, the weather will get more unpredictable and more severe. Severe storms, severe droughts, severe winters, severe hothouse summers, all across the globe.
4. Global warming is migration on global scale. Contrary to popular belief, migration will occur before sea level rise. Sea level rise will happen after people leave their coastal cities. Droughts and extreme weather events will force people to migrate into other areas, causing tension, leading to civil unrest, civil wars and then whole scale invasions that haven’t been seen since barbarians invaded Rome.
5. Global warming is now irreversible. We had a chance to stop it and reveres it 40 years ago. We had a chance to stop it 20 years ago. We had a chance to slow it down 10 years ago. Today, even if we stop burning fossil fuels, the temeratures will shoot up within weeks. Burning coal produces sulphates and aerosols and they stay up in the air for a few weeks keeping us cool, then they fall out. As long as we burn coal, this global dimming effect will remain, if we stop burning coal, the temperatures will shoot up by 1.2C within weeks.
6. Global warming is habitat killer. Our eco system depends on stable temperatures that we’ve experienced for the past 10,000 years. Slight changes in weather patterns and temperatures, cause eco systems to change or die. Think about having mild winters in the agricultural heartland of North America, all pests that winter kills will be able to survive and destroy our crops. Extreme weather destroys habitat, which destroys flora and fauna, which we depend upon in order to live. When habitat is gone, so will humans.
7. Global warming has feedbacks. These feedbacks are either positive or negative. Negative feedbacks slow global warming down or reverse it, positive feedbacks make global warming worse. Unfortunately, positive feedbacks are prevalant in the warming world and some of these have caused temperatures to jump 5-10C in matter of decades. For example, warming Arctic ocean can cause a release of just 2% of methane in a small part of the Arctic Ocean. This can cause temperatures to rise 1.2C within a year, causing sea ice to disappear completely in the Arctic and thaw the permafrost. This positive feedback can cause all the methane to be released within decades, ensuring temperatures rise 5-10C within decades. This will kill all living things on the planet.
Solution: The best solution is to stop burning all fossil fuels now. If we do, we might still have a chance to have some humans survive. We must prepare for very difficult times ahead. We must teach people how to farm, begin a massive depopulation program (if we don’t do this volunteraly, nature will do it for us, indiscriminately). Resilience should be our goal. Sustainability will only ensure humanity’s extinction. These are tough choices, but they must be made soon. We have, at most, 10 years left. Maybe less.
Technology, green or otherwise will have no effect on global warming anymore. Green tech will cause temperatures to rise quickly, and without fossil fuels to extract rare earth metals and iron, copper ores, green techs are dead in the water. Green technology is a solution to the wrong problem. The real cause Global warming is overpopulation, but that’s a different argument.
Bonus: Once global warming picks up pace, all nuclear power stations will be in danger of meltdown. If we don’t shut them down now properly and store spent fuel safely, we could experience Fukushima style meltdowns around the globe. This event will destroy all life on Earth, forever.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2016 at 3:07am
Some good articles http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/  and http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/glikson-the-dilemma-of-a-climate-scientist/7123246

The impression I am getting more and more is that climate-change may go much faster than expected even in the worst-case-scenario's. The jet-stream on the northern half of the globe has brought snow to Kuwait ! Keeps pushing warmth to the Arctic.

Sea-level rise and global temperature will go up. The effects of coming (super)storms will be more stronger much soner. I would not be surprised when a major city ends up in the sea after such a storm...this year.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2016 at 8:21am
https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth-sciences/humidity-could-be-killer-climate-change (based on IPCC-data wich are outdated)

Wet-bulb temperature is taken by placing a damp cloth over the thermometer’s bulb. Evaporation cools the bulb, the same way perspiring cools the body. As humidity increases, the cooling effect slows. For many mammals, including humans, 35 °C wet-bulb temperature is critical.

“In theory, a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature is the point at which your sweat will not evaporate,” Coffel says.

At that point, even the fittest young adult is unlikely to survive more than a few hours before fatally overheating. But lower wet-bulb temperatures can still claim the lives of the elderly or infirm. Deadly heat waves in India and Pakistan that killed 5,000 people in 2015 only produced wet-bulb temperatures in the range of 29-31 °C, he says.

Coffel found that by 2060, an estimated 600 million people will live in regions at risk of heat waves producing wet bulb temperatures hitting 32 °C. Of these, 250 million could see heat waves with wet-bulb temperatures of 33 °C, and 50 million could see 34 °C – one degree shy of the limit.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2016 at 10:49pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 15 2016 at 1:17pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Peaches View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Peaches Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2016 at 2:17pm
go to poleshift.ning.com for answers
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