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Is a U.S. Stock Market Crash imminent 2015 |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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Posted: October 08 2013 at 10:28am |
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x15p7gh_what-are-the-odds-of-a-stock-market-crash-on-oct-9_news
Predictions are beginning once more as the partial U.S. government shutdown continues that there will be a major hit on the Stock Market. Years later - August 24, 2015 - http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/08/24/wall-street-set-to-plunge-amid-global-market-selloff/?intcmp=hpbt1 It was a long time coming with many warning along the way. We can only hope this will correct itself very soon - but the Dow has plunged more than a thousands points and all other indicators are in correction areas. Worried about the serious issues with China and other worldwide markets - Japan- are disturbing stock holders. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Albert
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I think a 20% - 30% correction could be a little modest, but yes, it appears that a significant crash could be imminent very soon.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/10/07/a-one-month-shutdown-risks-triggering-20-to-30-correction-barry-ritholtz/ |
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Medclinician2013
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Thank you, Albert. I was a bit hesitant to even post this thread. But here is some right now information...
http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog5.php/2013/10/08/market-commentary-averages-tank-after-obama-speaks I hope my dates hold up as well as the source. Med |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Albert
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He's still speaking at this moment. He probably won't stop until the market is down a little further. Obama needs the markets to tank in order to get talks going once again. A pretty pathetic game being played in Washington.
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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Modest? That's well in circuit breaker range. If it drops that much over a short amount of time, we're going to see bigwigs jumping out of windows!
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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Here is the latest. The networks are jumping on after that was posted.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 Tech stocks crushed as debt deadline loomsIt's time for a dialog. |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Dang, I am waiting for a crash...then I will invest! Hate to tell you all but this political stuff is all theater.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Too much drama, poorly written script, and the cast stinks |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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No question.
The US Stock market entered a Secular Bear market and Post Bubble economy in 2000 which means the market falls for 20 years. The PE10 is a graph which is indicative of the beginnings and ends of Secular markets ans when the level gets to 7 or 5, the new secular bull market is born. At the moment the PE10 is around 23, so it has to halve and halve again. In other words since the year 2000, the market will do nothing but crash and crash and crash till the PE10 gets to 5. Read Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller. Its all there. We ignore history at our peril. |
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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Zer0 said that by raising the debt ceiling we wouldn't be putting ourselves in any more debt. I am truly astonished that he knows so little of how the economy works. Raising the debt ceiling *EXACTLY* drives up the debt and balances the budget instantly.
Furthermore, if we default, it is because Zer0 wanted to do so. They take in more than enough in revenue to not default if they simply prioritize, which they do anyway. All the debt ceiling does is forces our bloated government to stop borrowing and live within their means. They'll either have to cut spending, and I can think of quite a few entitlement programs, 0bamaphones, welfare, foodstamps and 0bamacare that could easily be cut, or raise taxes significantly. Knowing this dumbass, he's stupid enough to pile on the taxes.
You know, instead of only doing what government is supposed to do.
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Satori
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I find it quite interesting that people complain endlessly about the cost of "entitlement programs" for the poor and middle class what about the entitlement programs for the wealthy and corporations ??? money spent on the poor and middle class pales into comparison to that spending example when Rumsfeld was Sec of Defense he finally admitted that the Pentagon couldn't account for two TRILLION dollars of spending we're still buying $500 toilet seats and still spending $50 for a screw that ya can get at a hardware store for 50 cents |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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It becomes increasingly apparent that both sides are dug into their trenches and as long as that continues, the market is going to be poor and investors will become more unsettled.
An example of comments which I find discouraging is this one I found in on money.cnn. http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/news/economy/debt-ceiling-shutdown-what-i-know/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight&iid=article_sidebar The U.S. government has more than enough tax revenue to make all of its interest payments on Treasuries. So we won't "default" in that sense. But there are all the other government obligations that we won't have enough money for. 2. Those other obligations include Social Security, Medicare and military pay. Good luck "prioritizing" what to pay -- and what to skip. comment: Despite the safety net where everyone got paid except for the military which later got a type of extension, no such net will be in place as the next SSI and Medicare approach. 3. Government spending cuts would be severe. If we don't raise the debt ceiling, spending would drop by about a third very quickly, and the resulting recession and stock market crash would be devastating. 4. The debt ceiling is about paying for past spending decisions. Political negotiations should focus on future spending decisions. Question: So as they go into to negotiate to raise the debt ceiling "for a limited time", will this have any effect on easing the pressure on investors? Probably not. 5. Oct. 17 is not "default day," and missed payments wouldn't happen until a few days later. Rather, Oct. 17 is the day Treasury Secretary Jack Lew thinks he'll be out of tricks -- he will still have about $30 billion in cash and incoming tax revenue. 6. Politicians and
the media don't do well with squishy deadlines. Our countdown clocks are
probably wrong. And politicians will feel emboldened if nothing bad
happens when the clock strikes midnight on what may turn out to be the
wrong day. Comment: The newest headlines at CNN - http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/10/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 Washington (CNN) -- It's not a total solution, and there's still plenty of work to be done, but House Republican leaders are considering a plan to temporarily raise the nation's borrowing limit while keeping the partial government shutdown in place, members and leadership sources told CNN. The proposal would include demands for negotiations on issues related to the national debt, the sources said, although it's unclear precisely what form those talks would take. It's also unclear how long an extension of the debt ceiling would last, although senior House Republican sources have previously indicated an extension of four to six weeks seems likely. House Republicans are scheduled to meet Thursday morning to discuss the idea, while GOP leaders will travel to the White House in the afternoon to meet with President Barack Obama. Time running out for debt ceiling dealSenate Democrats have a separate meeting scheduled with the president. Comment: So bottom line is there is no really big sigh of relief or any development to end the shutdown without the continued impact on the American people and investors which is likely to bring down the market even further. Med |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Today the markets are up - over 1% in the USA when I just checked and better in Europe.
So maybe it won't crash today! I think the markets are overvalued, but I would hate to see a crash as that would cause a lot of pain to a lot of people. I would like to see a gradual slide to more "realistic" levels. Investors seem to run in herds so they might still pile into the markets for a bit before all turning at about the same time - so just this behaviour seems to make a crash more likely. |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/10/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=Lead&hpt=hp_t1
The key phrase here is... Stocks soar. The graph is magnified so the difference with a 1.57% jump after days of 1% drops is not that impressive. Statements that they might reach a deal which is a bandage over a serious wound will not fix the U.S. Economy. If you wade past the eye popping graph and headline, the contents of the article and what is happening are not that encouraging. Unemployment edging up? Investors saw one sign that should make them uneasy about the jobs market in the U.S., but they seemed content to ignore it Thursday. The U.S. Labor Department's weekly report on initial jobless claims
showed a sharp jump in claims over the previous week. The government
did not release its monthly jobs report last week due to the shutdown. The world markets however jumped as well on a global scale. http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/?iid=EL This would show us how really volatile the market is when a single news release can produce such a change that was the reason for the encouraging market results so far today. To end on a more positive note, no one wants to see the stocks tumble or economic disaster. This is not entirely true though. Some could make a sizable killing on buying as they bottom out and then rebound. Yet, over all, a better economy and recovery for the U.S. is a plus not only for America, but for global financial stability as well. Yet there are certain realities in place. One indicator you might look at to understand what is driving the market now is the fear-and-greed index. This partially explains why the American economy is in trouble and how it got there. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL The components or elements involved will not change in a day. As one poster said, this has been going on for many many years. But as we veterans often say - "a day above ground is a good day." So, it appears today in the Stock Market for most, was a good day. Med |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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It's because the rumor on the street is that QE I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII will continue and the Republicans are going to fold any day now and give Zer0 exactly what he wanted in the first place.
If they fold, they're done. This is high stakes poker and if the Republicans aren't 100% ready to push all their chips into the middle and say, "Screw you, Zer0, we're not going to do it your way!" they deserve the blame they were going to get anyway and shouldn't even be there. Zer0 knows this, the question is: Is Zer0 ready to skip the debt limit to crash the economy with his signature disasterous piece of legislation? Call his bluff. If the Orange Boner doesn't have the cajones to actually pull it off, then why the hell did you push it this far?
The debt ceiling only works because those that are going to have to pay for it HAVEN'T BEEN BORN YET and don't get to vote! I mean, if they're just going to keep raising the debt ceiling, then why have the damned thing in the first place? Let's just borrow to infinity and inflate our way to prosperity!
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Orange Boner...
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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They are not out of the woods yet. Despite a glowing report i.e.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-october-11-124040212.html On Thursday, Republicans leaders said they would vote to raise the country’s debt limit for six weeks. A spokesman for President Barack Obama said that the president will possibly sign a bill to raise the country’s borrowing limit. Fifteen minutes before the closing bell, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats will not hold discussions with Republicans until partial government shutdown is lifted. However, Harry Reid’s discouraging comments didn’t affect yesterday’s trading session. So, timing was extremely significant in terms of the Market's behavior yesterday and the overall problems that could still drive it down are still there. A one day rally on the bases of conflicting interpretation of a single meeting is hardly a sign things are okay. This remains a watch and wait situation and raising the debt limit without reopening the government or agreeing to a solution which is only for a few weeks, is not enough to relieve the tension. It is little more than a band-aid over a serious wound which has developed over decades. A well developed strategy is relying on the American public's cumulative memory loss when it comes to huge negative events over time. In this case, it is the belief that once the government opens, everything will be back to normal including the stock market. This is very unlikely. The overall perception of U.S. economic reliability and solid ability to pay the debt and their obligations has been shaken. This could play out over a much longer time in which the financial global balance shifts (as it has been shifting for decades) and the continued outsourcing of manufacturing and loss of jobs and money flooding outward will impact the stocks and economy. Day by day - just as we live our lives. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stock-market-news-for-october-14-2013-market-news-cm287020
On the home front, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment numbers. The preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 75.2 in September from previous month's final reading of 77.5. This was marginally below the consensus estimate of 75.6. The consumer sentiment touched a nine-month low due to investor concerns about the partial government shutdown and the approaching debt ceiling deadline. Comment: It is amazing that the stocks continue to stay up considering there has been no real hard core improvement aside from bills from both parties that lack solid numbers and there is no apparent real bottom line agreement. Despite the news stories which in later portions of the articles mention that there are still differences and it could take longer to hammer them out. As mentioned in another post, there is always the chance of some Senate or Congressional bill passed, however temporary, which will be reflected in a true surge in the Market. If the 10/17/2013 is reached and there is a default, then the stocks may drop drastically. The closer America gets to that date with no agreement, the more imminent a likely crash is. One day at a time; hoping the fighting representatives of the American people can set aside their political agendas to save the United States economy. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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There is no agreement in either Congress or the Senate as we approach a default at midnight tonight.
The market is spooked and falling. http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/10/15/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 U.S. stocks ended in the red Tuesday as lawmakers in Washington continued to wrangle over a budget deal.The major indexes started the day slightly lower and a sell-off accelerated in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 100 points, or nearly 1%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.7%. It was the first decline in five days for both indexes. The Nasdaq declined 0.6% following three straight days of gains. Senate leaders had said earlier Tuesday they made "tremendous progress" toward an agreement to end the partial government shutdown and raise the debt limit, but hopes were starting to evaporate following reports that talks to boost the debt ceiling may be falling apart. comment: Basically they are running out of time. They don't meet until noon today and the odds of getting bills passed and getting support is looking bad. Statements from the leaders and speakers are not considering they cannot control the votes and guessing whether new bills will pass is not based on anything concrete. No one wants this, but at this point people should be prepared if the unthinkable happens - we default. This would slam dump the credit and send the Stock Market spiraling down. Government has never been fast at anything. 21 hours and 11 minutes left. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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http://www.investors.com/stock-market-today/
Stocks opened strongly and held gains Wednesday, cheered by a bipartisan deal in the Senate that will reopen the government through Jan. 15 and lift the debt ceiling through Feb. 7. About three-and-a-half hours into the session, all three major averages scored gains of better than 1%. The Nasdaq hit a 52-week high, while the S&P 500 came to within 8 points of a record. Preliminary data showed NYSE volume tracking 16% higher than Tuesday. Nasdaq volume rose 4%. We have approximately 13 hours left. This is the final countdown to a default on our economy which still must make it through the holidays and possible Draconian cuts should there be no funds by November 1st. Conclusion: Despite all the doomsday talk, the common person in the U.S. does not want to see the economy crash. The world as well would be massively effective and would likely suffer plunges as well or surges depending on what happens here. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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hachiban08
Senior Moderator Joined: December 06 2007 Location: California, USA Status: Offline Points: 15627 |
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I thought it was based on Midnight, EST? That'd be more like 10 hours left. Guess we'll see what happens. My friend is an investment consultant down in San Diego, and he said his clients are still spooked on what's to come next. |
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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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Both sides are useless!! We do not have to Default or even worse raise the Dept ceiling!! Just cut out all the wasteful spending!! They are all a bunch of XXXXXXXX Playing with our Lives.
POLITICO @politico 41 s Senate expected to vote on a deal late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, Dem leadership aide says: [link to politi.co] |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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coyote
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Maybe this is their grand plan... The House Republicans have too much too lose if they pass this bill.Nobody will ever take them serious ever again in anything they say. The most logical thing for the House to do is NOT vote for this bill. If we default everyone will be blamed not just the republicans. |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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It may seem stock market problems are now history - but they really aren't. The bill is on the Congressional floor right now and they are debating it. One can hope,for the American people, that tomorrow morning will see a huge surge and for awhile we will be out of trouble. Yet this is a band-aid over a serious wound, and the Market is very subject to change.
At midnight, EST, the story will be told. |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPYLJoq_40Y
The tail wags the dog. Why does the dog wag its tail? Because the dog is smarter than the tail. If the tail were smarter, it would wag the dog. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/
Nov 07 1:28pm: Many stocks were in the red Thursday There is news of a massive decrease in social security checks in December 2013 - as a mandatory 3 months of premiums is taken out in a lump sum. This could possibly devastate the poor and elderly across the board and give some incomes of $26-40 dollars as compared to hundreds or more. It was difficult to get the real numbers except on CNN which appears more interested in the drop in Tesla and a rise in Twitter versus a jittery market. The effect on Americans is a non-negotiable reality with a massive short fall income due to Obamacare. No money will go back into pockets once it is taken out. This massive blow will hit just before Christmas and could send the markets spiraling globally at the same time the flu begins to spread. The reopening of the government solved nothing in terms of the rocky economic reality which will hit January 1, 2014. The ripple effect as Americans literally will not be able to afford affordable health care, the hit on the economy will hit the retailers hard. Prepping sounds like a really good idea. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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ParanoidMom
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I agree. Nothing was solved, it was just delayed. One of these times there won't be a ceiling to raise and it's going to go down hill fast!
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But the souls of the righteous are in the hand of the Lord
Wisdom of Solomon 3:1 |
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Medclinician2013
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The over all mood in the U.S. concerning a coming crash of the economy is becoming more and more pessimistic. While Wall Street and the financial community continue to rave about the Dow Jones and other classic numbers to watch to determine the health of the Stock Market, these may not truly reflect it's future.
The classic and better indicator of the overall mood of the U.S. and and world as to how things are often polls. A lack luster November with multiple issues during Thanksgiving, may begin another fall in the Stock Market. Today is Black Friday as shoppers swarm the stores the economy and their mood will be reflected in the sales. CNN/ORC today said that people are getting gloomier about the future of the economy.
November 29th, 2013
06:00 AM ET
And a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday also indicates that less than a quarter of the public says that economic conditions are improving, while nearly four in ten say the nation's economy is getting worse. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/29/cnnorc-poll-jump-in-percentage-of-those-saying-things-not-going-well/?hpt=hp_t2 Yet this lost faith in the economy seems not to be affecting the New York Stock Exchange. http://www.marketwatch.com/ Have we reached a point where we could have a truly bad economy with stock numbers at an all time high? Is this possible? Could growing poverty, bad health care, not touch many of the rich who have large stock holdings, while there are some low interest rates? These rises in values for top companies do not reflect the tragedy of massive layoffs to maintain profits, outsourcing much of the work overseas, and reducing or wiping out retirement benefits. Food for thought. So perhaps we should look to other indicators to tell us if an economic crash is still coming and the Stock Market will only collapse after it has already happened. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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cobber
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The stockmarket is going crazy because of excess liquidity being pumped into the market by the Fed. AKA money printing
The theory goes pump like crazy until the economy picks up. Then pay down the debt later. There are many problems with this idea. Things like artificially inflating everything ie property, stocks etc etc. This leads to inflation, which erodes the real economy. I'm getting out of the stock market now as i see it hitting a brick wall soon.
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Medclinician2013
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Perhaps as we reach the last day of November and a self-imposed deadly for the .gov Obamacare website, as many of us will see our SSI checks cut by 80% for this month, things will hit the fan. With millions who may be left with as little as $50 to pay for all their bills and food this will certainly not increase their ability to buy presents for Christmas.
This, as many threads I post here, is not a fun task. It is simply making people aware of the situation so they can prepare. Thank you posters who, many of whom are very knowledgeable about stocks, Wall Street, and have many years of experience. Your wisdom has guided my journey into an area that I continue learn about and try to understand. I write for the common person who has little experience or knowledge in this area and write in in simple words. If, and it is likely, things hit the fan today, and the roll-out is poor and people are truly upset, it may affect the Stock Market considerably. Perhaps it won't crash, but the honeymoon may be over as forces which have worked to reflect a Bull Market falter and a Bear Market replaces the house of cards which sits so precariously aloof as the storm approaches. http://content.moneyinstructor.com/693/what-bull-bear-market.html |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-december-5-144752550.html
The Dow and S&P 500 extended their losing streak into a fourth successive day as strong private sector labor data intensified apprehensions that the Federal Reserve would soon begin trimming its economic stimulus package. Stocks traded lower for most of the session before make up for some losses ahead of the closing bell. The prevailing mood of uncertainty meant that there was little trading action as investors await key nonfarm payroll data to be released on Friday. The materials sector was the biggest gainer among the S&P 500 industry groups while industrials lost the most. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/05/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE9AS0ER20131205 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Thursday after a round of mixed economic data left traders guessing how soon the Federal Reserve would begin to wind down an asset-purchase program that has helped equities rally. comment: As money is pumped into areas which artificially have indicated economic stability, the Stock Market-- as it has always been-- is taking a hit by recent political disasters. Many economic agreements including those with farmers who are heavily subsidized and even corn and grain--could almost double some prices will as well -- in the near future. The price of milk is likely to double to $7 a gallon and there will be other increases as well. As these sweep through the supermarkets, they will inflate other prices of anything using milk or dairy products. That would include cheese, yogurt and things we have grown to need to sustain our basic health. Despite control mechanisms in place to stop a crash, people still basically influenced by emotion, could panic. However, high tech electronics and auto sell or buy devices in place to handle high speed trading, will contribute to a crash,if it happens, independent of human emotions. As so many other things are happening, no one wants this and we will continue to see an overrated market as the foundations supporting the economy are being eaten away. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
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For history I will say this. There is no logical reason for a stock market surge. With the coming of cuts in food stamps, veteran's benefits, and the most unworkable health care plan ever written these numbers being pumped out are the biggest lie of all. This thread will sink and be forgotten, but the stocks will not stay up when it hits the fan.
Congress is the worst it has ever been, and the sane will eventually will stop feeding the flames. Never have the American people been so deceived so much for so long. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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DANNYKELLEY
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Yup,You are right on the money Medclinician.
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WHAT TO DO????
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Satori
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Be prepared: Wall Street advisor recommends guns, ammo for protection in collapse http://washingtonexaminer.com/be-prepared-wall-street-advisor-recommends-guns-ammo-for-protection-in-collapse/article/2541205 Is A Financial Apocalypse Coming? http://www.emarotta.com/is-a-financial-apocalypse-coming/ How David Stockman Became Democrats' Favorite Reaganite http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/how-david-stockman-became-democrats-favorite-reaganite/261121/ ""I invest in anything that [Federal Reserve Chair Ben] Bernanke can't destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries." |
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coyote
Admin Group Joined: April 25 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8395 |
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THE STOCK MARKET HAS OFFICIALLY ENTERED CRAZYTOWN TERRITORY
It is time to crank up the Looney Tunes theme song because Wall Street has officially entered crazytown territory. Stocks just keep going higher and higher, and at this point what is happening in the stock market does not bear any resemblance to what is going on in the overall economy whatsoever. So how long can this irrational state of affairs possibly continue? Stocks seem to go up no matter what happens. If there is good news, stocks go up. If there is bad news, stocks go up. If there is no news, stocks go up. On Thursday, the day after Christmas, the Dow was up another 122 points to another new all-time record high. In fact, the Dow has had an astonishing 50 record high closes this year. This reminds me of the kind of euphoria that we witnessed during the peak of the housing bubble. At the time, housing prices just kept going higher and higher and everyone rushed to buy before they were "priced out of the market". But we all know how that ended, and this stock market bubble is headed for a similar ending. It is almost as if Wall Street has not learned any lessons from the last two major stock market crashes at all. Just look at Twitter. At the current price, Twitter is supposedly worth 40.7 BILLION dollars. But Twitter is not profitable. It is a seven-year-old company that has never made a single dollar of profit. [link to www.blacklistednews.com] |
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Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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cobber
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liquidity pumped the market the euphoria is in the air... good time to sellup
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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coyote.you might be right about a market collapse,but I am told that one thing that is keeping the market up and will likely keep the market up is money coming in from other countries. We are on shaky financial ground in this country, but many people forget that the rest of the world is even shaker. Like my friend said,when you look at every thing,we are in really scarey shape,but we are still the most stable economy in the world. The rest of the world leaders know this to. That is really scarey,but it is true. The whole world economy will collapse before ours does,but then we will be the last to go and so many countries and many very rich people from other countries will do all that they can to make sure that we do not collapse.----- Personally,I think the whole world economy will collapse and we will follow,because that is what the plan is for the world. Then with all of the chaos and starving and killing that will follow,the "New World Order" will stop the problems when we get down to 500,000 people world wide,but they have tried this before and the "New World Order" has always failed,but they do manage to get millions of people killed. The "New World Order" will fail again,but millions and possibly billions will die. Johnray1 My advice,buy more beans,wear camo, and stay unseen.
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Mahshadin
Admin Group Joined: January 26 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3882 |
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Med your post is three months old (Not exactly imminent) I made almost 20% in that time.
I think we should insist that these Doom and Gloom Posts be dated otherwise its just stating the inevitable or Obvious. Tell me something I don't already know. Will the market crash again "absolutely" Its a legalized & glorified Casino Over the years not much has changed when it comes to these Doom & Gloom stories, the stock market is going to crash, the dollar is going to crash, the economy is going to crash, the evil elitist new world order is going to kill you all. The only thing I have seen that actually did happen was the format in which these cons are presented. I remember when they were going door to door with records, then it was cassette tapes, then we got video with beta and vhs, then on to DVD's and now the internet explosion. Now there are information trolls everywhere. Atleast if we held the posts to dating the conversation would be a bit more entertaining and possibly even more factual instead of the repetitive brainwashing that now sells for real information. We could even keep a score card post and find out whose right and who is just (Well You Know) Just my thoughts Piece of advise--Enjoy your life now, anyway you slice it its never long enough. To sit and worry about every crash and burn post or radio show is not worth your time. Besides we have enough to worry about in Pandemic Risks right now!!! |
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"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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Well, when I posted this we were nearing a government shutdown and the market was very jittery. It is true this thread has become too large and after a few more people post, I will let it go to thread heaven. The idea is not to make a resounding prediction and wait until it comes true. |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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cobber
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Johnray... America the most stable economy in the world??? LOL
America has about 102% debt to GDP ratio (not great). China has 6% GDP to debt ratio. Admittedly GDP is not the best measure of financial well-being, but it paints with a wide brush. What about the halving of all US property values?? What about Detroit bankruptcy?? What about USA's desperate money printing joining the likes of Mugabe's fiscal prowess... Sorry to burst your bubble but America is very unstable. The big collapse that didn't happen may have been averted by the skin of your teeth. Money printing has deleveraged the market , but will the roosters come home to roost? The jury is still out. For now its a booming market and its euphoric!!!! I've made money too!!! yay |
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Elver
Valued Member Joined: June 14 2008 Status: Offline Points: 7778 |
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I have a 'grap'h of the 1929 through 1931 'stock market crash'. All I can say is that nobody has a crystal ball. Anyone who got out of the market prior to the crash of 1929 thru 31 was better off than those who stayed in. This collapse took about 3 years.
Our market is terribly overvalued right now and we're not greedy enough to stay in until the end which is why we've started to taper out of it. Everyone is seeking dividends and stock appreciation since banks don't pay anything, but the risk is pretty large right now. Imagine climbing up in a roller coaster until the crest of the hill is reach whereupon the roller coaster drops suddenly on the other side. Even if you get out prior to the top you will be vastly better off than those who went over the top. |
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Guests
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I am still waiting for it to crash then I will pick up some stocks! The Treasuries are going up also...good news on all fronts!
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Elver
Valued Member Joined: June 14 2008 Status: Offline Points: 7778 |
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Unless your money is under your mattress, you may not have anything left in the bank to invest. By then our dollar may not be worth anything anyway. Lots of people are forecasting bad things to happen in 2014, but this song has been sung before and not much has happened.
The bottom is that nobody has a crystal ball on what will happen or when. People have to prepare themselves for several different scenarios. |
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cobber
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The really big picture to understand is that by 2016 China will be the largest superpower.
This will cut deep into the established power structure of the world. Past investment circles will collapse and new ones in new territories will be born. This massive shift in capital will move along lines chasing new growth. This is just the beginning of a long term transition and is set to last around twenty years. So where are the mega banks going to put their investment dollar? Who's currency will be the world reserve currency? Its obvious OR China and USA have a fight....
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Johnray1
Valued Member Joined: April 23 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8159 |
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cobber, I would much prefer that the US and China go to war. They have a massive Army,but they have no way to get them here and they have to feed them everyday. We sink what few ships that they have and then we just set back and pick them apart. After all, ALL wars have been fought over money.Johnray1
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