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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

is this why we need a pandemic

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2013 at 8:40am
Hey crying,

You keep talking about moral suicide, but I'm still waiting for you to either get on some serious medication or leave. It's a shame that nobody can live up to your expectations.

Try posting something negative next time
so we can try to understand how you really feel!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2013 at 10:36am
Elver, exactly what...are my so called expectations?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician2013 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2013 at 11:54am
The article posted is about global warming. What is the correlation between that and overpopulation or a pandemic? Overpopulation is a given, yet the last Pandemic was rather impotent in a global high-percentage CFR. There is no need for a Pandemic. This is reflected in the harsh attitude of Scrooge in A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens.

“If they would rather die,” said Scrooge, “they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/artcarden/2010/12/15/surplus-population-sorry-mr-scrooge-but-youre-mistaken/

The death rate in 2009 varies radically with the later study which reflects one that is 15-30 times more than official U.S. data reflects.

Source link:

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2812%2970121-4/abstract

Findings:

We estimate that globally there were 201 200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700—395 600) with an additional 83 300 cardiovascular deaths (46 000—179 900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 51% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa.

comment: Even though considerably more than reported in the U.S., considering additional contributing factor deaths, there would have been 575,900 at the most extreme case count.  Roughly 600,000, with a global population at the end of 2009 of 6.8 billion.

http://www.chegg.com/homework-help/questions-and-answers/end-2009-global-population-68-billion-people-mass-glucose-kgwould-needed-provide-1900-cal--q1654745

which would be a .0082% CFR.  This certainly was not enough to do anything to significantly decrease the world population.

The number of cases during the Swine Flu epidemic in the cases in New York was vastly unreported and the case count could possibly have dwarfed the entire estimation for the world by Lancet.

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/new-york-city-swine-flu-case-tally-high-500-000-cdc-article-1.377239


New research estimates that half a million New Yorkers have been infected by swine flu.

The alarming data was released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which estimated there have been 50 times more cases nationwide than have been reported to health authorities.

"We're saying that there have been at least a million cases of the new H1N1 virus so far this year in the United States," said Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic

One of the worst in history the 1918 pandemic racked up some serious numbers but had no real major impact on the the world population.

The 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920)[1] was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus (the second being the 2009 flu pandemic). It infected 500 million[2] people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them—3 to 5 percent of the world's population[3] at the time—making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.


Conclusion: The final evaluation as to the effect of a real Pandemic on the number of people globally is a real hard number to guesstimate. The real numbers of CFR in the current Mers CoV fatality are about 43%.  Perhaps if such a super bug could be spread more efficiently, it could create a pandemic 10x worse than the one in 1918.

This would have made Scrooge happy.

“If they would rather die,” said Scrooge, “they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”

The resulting deaths could be as high as a billion people.

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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2013 at 5:15pm
Medclinician you mentioned Scrooge. Such a funny story. I like the version where Scrooge is with one of the ghosts, and he sees all of the people who owe him money, and they are singing and dancing outside of his establishment. Of course, this being a visionary presentation of future events, the debters do not see Scrooge.
They are singing the song, "Thank You Very Much" Thank you very much, that's the nicest thing anyone's ever done, for me...thankyou very much that's the nicest thing that anyone has ever done for me.!" Then the ghost shows Scrooge the tomb stone with Scrooge's name on it. The debters debts were forgiven on the death of the money lender.
One has to feel sorry for Scrooge. He had nothing of value, because he had no values.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2013 at 4:10am
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Miami Herald Story On City’s Worsening Coastal Flooding Never Mentions Global Warming Or Sea Level Rise

By Joe Romm on October 20, 2013 at 12:38 pm

800px-Miami-skyline-for-wikipedia-07-11-2007-by-tom-schaefer-miamitom

It seems nobody talks about climate change, but everybody wants to do something about it. Consider this head-in-the-wet-sand piece from the Miami Herald, “Rain or no rain, beachfront streets flood due to ‘spring tide’.”

You probably think it would be impossible for an entire news article on worsening street flooding in Miami to omit any mention whatsoever of global warming or even sea level rise. Think again.

“It gets super flooded from the tide every couple of months,” said [Moses] Schwartz who lived on the island for more than 20 years before moving to the Brickell area on the mainland. “It’s getting worse and worse as the years go by.”

Hmm. Why is it getting worse? The Miami Herald offers no explanation. This is all it has to say about the cause of the flooding:

The current levels of high tide are caused by an astronomical event known as “spring tide,” according to Chuck Caracozza, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service.

See, nothing to worry about. It’s just high tides. Except the article runs with this quote from Schwartz:

“It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Miami Beach in 10 to 20 years,” he said.

Why? Why? Why? Why will it be interesting to see? Why does he think it’s going to get worse? Why did the reporter include that quote? No explanation is given.

Indeed, while the article fails to mention climate change or sea level rise, it does quote one “Nanette Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for the city,” explaining that Miami is studying how to deal with this apparently inexplicable plague of street flooding.

Rodriguez said the city is thinking of short-term fixes to deal with the issue.

“We’re looking at improving our sea walls and raising some of them,” she said.

In search of a long-term solution, a delegation recently returned from the Netherlands, Rodriguez said, and the city will determine which of that country’s strategies to hold back high tides can be used here.

“Some of their ideas we can do, others we can’t as we are in different geographic areas,” Rodriguez said.

That last quote from Rodriguez is quite the euphemism given the reality of the region’s topology and geology. As the must-read June Rolling Stone piece, “Goodbye, Miami,” explains:

Even worse, South Florida sits above a vast and porous limestone plateau. “Imagine Swiss cheese, and you’ll have a pretty good idea what the rock under southern Florida looks like,” says Glenn Landers, a senior engineer at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This means water moves around easily – it seeps into yards at high tide, bubbles up on golf courses, flows through underground caverns, corrodes building foundations from below. “Conventional sea walls and barriers are not effective here,” says Robert Daoust, an ecologist at ARCADIS, a Dutch firm that specializes in engineering solutions to rising seas.’oh.

But, undaunted, Rodriguez and the Miami Herald end with this reassuring line:

Rodriguez said the tide should be back to normal by early next week.

#FAIL

For a dose of reality, let’s end instead with the Rolling Stone piece:

But the unavoidable truth is that sea levels are rising and Miami is on its way to becoming an American Atlantis. It may be another century before the city is completely underwater (though some more-pessimistic­ scientists predict it could be much sooner), but life in the vibrant metropolis of 5.5 million people will begin to dissolve much quicker, most likely within a few decades. The rising waters will destroy Miami slowly, by seeping into wiring, roads, building foundations and drinking-water supplies – and quickly, by increasing the destructive power of hurricanes. “Miami, as we know it today, is doomed,” says Harold Wanless, the chairman of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. “It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when.”

… “If you live in South Florida and you’re not building a boat, you’re not facing reality.”



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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2013 at 4:18am
                                               GLOBAL WARMING IS HAPPENING,

    97% of scientist agree, it's NOT a theory ,we are changing the planet,

    the disaster you are all preping for is happening  now,

     WAKE UP,
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2013 at 4:20am

     

                                     The Post’s View

    Congress turns a blind eye to global warming

    By Editorial Board, Monday, October 21, 7:44 AM

    THIS WASN’T THE dramatic news that opponents of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were hoping for: Last Tuesday, the Supreme Court declined to consider a variety of challenges to the EPA’s effort to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

    But the news wasn’t a total victory for environmentalists. The court announced it would hear one challenge to the agency’s regulations: The Justice Department will have to convince the court that the EPA has the power under the Clean Air Act to put carbon-dioxide limits on so-called stationary sources — power plants, cement mixers and the like — using a powerful permitting program. If the court disagrees, it could rip some teeth out of the agency’s greenhouse gas effort.

    Washington Post Editorials

    Editorials represent the views of The Washington Post as an institution, as determined through debate among members of the editorial board. News reporters and editors never contribute to editorial board discussions, and editorial board members don’t have any role in news coverage.

    Read more

    Congress passed the Clean Air Act in the 1970s, when the air pollutants of concern were substances such as lead or particulate matter. Lawmakers wrote the law broadly, with the intent to regulate a variety of known and then-unknown pollutants. But the law’s language doesn’t fit perfectly when applied to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, in part because virtually everyone and everything produces carbon dioxide.

    The high court sorted through some of the confusion in 2007 with its landmark Mass. v. EPA decision, in which it confirmed that greenhouse gases are pollutants for the purposes of the Clean Air Act. Following that, the EPA set fuel-efficiency standards on cars and light trucks. Then the agency announced it would begin to regulate stationary sources, which would cut down on the amount of dirty coal burned. The justices on Tuesday refused to reconsider their 2007 ruling and let stand the regulations on vehicles. But they agreed to hear arguments against a piece of the EPA’s move to regulate power plants.

    Opponents argue that, since applying every word of the law to greenhouse gas emissions immediately would produce “absurd” results, Congress never could have intended that there be a permitting program, which obliges big polluters to get special permits and install pollution-control technology. The government argues that the EPA’s job is to apply the law to greenhouse emissions as far and as fast as the agency reasonably can. A recent Supreme Court ruling found that the government has a coherent greenhouse gas policy in place, which indicates that the Obama administration stands a good shot at defending its right to pursue that policy. But the justices could have simply let lower court rulings stand; a pro-EPA outcome is far from guaranteed.

    The overriding problem is that Congress hasn’t faced up to the global-warming threat. Instead of updating clean air rules and building a policy that addresses the unique challenge of greenhouse emissions, it has left the EPA and the courts with a strong but sometimes ambiguous law that applies imperfectly to greenhouse emissions. In the absence of congressional action, the EPA’s approach — interpreting the confusing text of the Clean Air Act in light of its overriding purpose to combat threatening air pollution — is the right one.

    Read more on this issue from Opinions:

    Mike Tidwell: We can’t let Maryland become a greenhouse gas hot spot

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2013 at 4:26am

    Sen. Sanders: ‘Global Warming Is a Far More Serious Problem Than Al Qaeda’

    by Source on October 20, 2013 · 1 comment

    in Business, Environment, Politics

    In new interview with Playboy, the Vermont senator laments the collapsed middle class, corporate power.

    By Andrea Germanos / Common Dreams

    sanders_playboy

    Sanders speaking about the government shutdown’s impacts. (Photo: AFGE/cc/flickr)

    In a newly published interview, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) blasts the “unfettered capitalism” that has collapsed the middle class, and the corporate power fueling climate change, which poses a “far more serious problem than Al Qaeda.”

    Sanders speaking about the government shutdown’s impacts. (Photo: AFGE/cc/flickr) Speaking with economics writer Jonathan Tasini for the interview with Playboy, the 72-year-old Independent senator said that “one of the untold stories of our time is the collapse of the American middle class.” It’s due, in part, to “the decline of trade unions,” which means that workers “have less power to negotiate contracts and less political clout.”

    It’s a system that has brought immense inequality, he says.

    “We are in the midst of intense class warfare, where the wealthiest people and the largest corporations are at war with the middle class and working families of this country, and it is obvious the big-money interests are winning that war.”

    It’s a “hypercapitalist society,” where there are even efforts to “privatize water, for God’s sake,” and the function of the current health care system is “to make as much money out of it as possible,” he told Tasini.

    When Tasini told Sanders, “You make the U.S. sound like a banana republic in which a handful of families control all the economic and political power,” Sanders responded simply, “Yes, it is. In more technical economic terms I would call it an oligarchy.”

    It’s a system that has put corporate interests above people—and the planet.

    “You have the entire scientific community saying we have to be very aggressive in cutting greenhouse gas emissions,” Sanders told Playboy. “Yet you’re seeing the heads of coal companies and oil companies willing to sacrifice the well-being of the entire planet for their short-term profits. And these folks are funding phony organizations to try to create doubt about the reality of global warming.”

    It’s “incomprehensible,” he said, that “ig business is willing to destroy the planet for short-term profits.”

    “And because of their power over the political process, you hear a deafening silence in the U.S. Congress and in other bodies around the world about the severity of the problem. Global warming is a far more serious problem than Al Qaeda.”

    As for any hopes Sanders supporters have that the senator will make a bid for the White House, he told Tasini, “I am at least 99 percent sure I won’t.”

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2013 at 3:47am

    UN climate chief's tears over future generations

    Matt McGrath By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News
    Christiana Figueres Ms Figueres is shown here addressing delegates at the last major meeting of negotiators at Doha in 2012

    The head of the UN body tasked with delivering a global climate treaty broke down in tears at a meeting in London as she spoke about the impact of global warming on coming generations.

    Christiana Figueres told the BBC that the lack of an agreement was "condemning future generations before they are even born".

    Ms Figueres said this was "completely unfair and immoral".

    Despite the slow pace of negotiations, she said a deal can be done by 2015.

    Continue reading the main story

    Start Quote

    We have a choice to change the future we are going to give our children”

    Christiana Figueres UNFCCC Executive Secretary

    Costa Rica-born Christiana Figueres has been the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the last three years.

    Steadying the ship

    Taking over after the failure of the talks process in Copenhagen in 2009, Ms Figueres has carefully steered the parties forward.

    Delegates agreed in Durban in 2011 that a new global deal must be signed by 2015 and come into force from 2020.

    But Ms Figueres' passionate approach to progress has been tested by the slow, tortuous UN process, where consensus is the only way forward.

    "I am always frustrated by the pace of the negotiations, I was born impatient. We are moving way, way too slowly, but we are moving in the right direction and that's what gives me courage and hope," she said.

    Speaking to the BBC on the sidelines of a climate conference at Chatham House in London, Ms Figueres became tearful when she reflected on the impact that climate change might have on coming generations.

    "I'm committed to climate change because of future generations, it is not about us, right? We're out of here," she said.

    "I just feel that it is so completely unfair and immoral what we are doing to future generations, we are condemning them before they are even born."

    "We have a choice about it, that's the point, we have a choice. If it were inevitable then so be it, but we have a choice to change the future we are going to give our children."

    Text on the table

    She said that she was hopeful an agreement could be signed in Paris in 2015 but if that was going to happen, then significant progress had to be made in the next 12 months.

    There would need to be the draft text of an agreement when the parties meet in Peru in 2014.

    She said she was determined to avoid the mistakes that were made in the run up to Copenhagen in 2009, when expectations of a far reaching global compact faltered.

    "We are not going to have another Copenhagen - the leaders of the world are not just being brought in at the last minute, to face 300 pages of text that is completely impossible to digest.

    Next year would see a special climate summit of world leaders called by UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon. Ms Figueres is hopeful that this will clear the road ahead of the Paris meeting in 2015.

    "It is not going to be in Paris, going into all the technical details of how to build the agreement which is what we had in Copenhagen. The structure and logic of an agreement need to be in place.

    "This is way too complex and way too challenging to wait until the last minute in 2015."

    This year's Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC will take place next month in Poland.

    Chasing pirates

    Some environmental campaigners are concerned that because of the country's heavy dependence on coal, it is less committed to strong action on climate change.

    Critics took issue with comments on an official website for the conference that suggested there were many positives to the unprecedented melting of Arctic ice, including the opportunity to chase "pirates, terrorists and ecologists".

    But Ms Figueres dismissed concerns about the meeting.

    "They have shown themselves to be very committed to this process, the COP president (Polish environment minister Marcin Korolec) has put in an extraordinary amount of time into learning and making himself familiar with the endless intricacies of this issue," she said.

    Follow Matt on Twitter.

    More on This Story

    Related Stories

    The BBC is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 27 2013 at 4:34am

    Arctic temperatures hotter now than in 44,000 years

    Yereth Rosen
    October 25, 2013

    Plants uncovered by melted ice on the highlands of Canada’s Baffin Island were found through radiocarbon dating to be 44,000 years or older, meaning today’s summers in the region could be warmer than at any time since that era or even earlier. Matthew Kennedy

    Ancient plants exposed by newly melted ice on Baffin Island suggest that summers in the eastern Canadian Arctic are warmer now than they have been for at least 44,000 years, and possibly for about three times that long, according to a new study published online this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    Those rooted plants were ice-covered even 11,000 years ago, when the northern hemisphere was at its closest possible position to the sun due to the planet's tilt and rotation, the study says. In that period, known as the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the northern hemisphere received 9 percent more solar heat than it does today.

    With the eastern Canadian Arctic now basking in warmer summers than even at that period, the only logical explanation is man-made carbon emissions, said project leader Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado.

    Natural cycles cannot explain the results, he said.

    Miller, associate director of Colorado's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and his fellow scientists based their research on samples collected over three field seasons on Baffin Island. There, the researchers collected fist-sized mosses that were popping out of newly-uncovered earth. The old plants were measured by radiocarbon dating as 44,000 to 51,000 years old. Since radiocarbon dating cannot measure reliably beyond about 50,000 years, the newly uncovered plants could be could be much older -- up to 120,000 years old, according to Miller and his fellow researchers.

    Well-known examination of ice cores from nearby Greenland shows that the last time the Arctic was potentially as warm as it is today was 120,000 years ago, at the end of the last interglacial period.

    No matter how old the dead plants are, they didn't appear at first to be much different from the young plants growing far outside the ice’s edge, Miller said in a telephone interview.  

    "These plants are rooted. So when they come out, they look just like the tundra plants that are alive, but they’re dead," he said.

    But the dead plants, once exposed to the elements, can crumble or else disintegrate in wind or water, Miller said. So he and his colleagues, ferried to Baffin Island by helicopter, had to work fast to collect their samples.

    Those very old plants were, until the recent melting, held fast by high-altitude ice that did not move around, Miller said.

    While probing the edges of that ice, the scientists did find other objects exposed, including caribou bones. But since animal bones are mobile, they don’t provide as much information as the old, rooted plants, he said.

    “The nice thing about plants is we know they haven’t moved,” he said.

    Among the 365 samples collected were younger plants found at lower elevations, covered up by ice for about the last 3,000 to 4,000 years, Miller said. But those areas of ice were more dynamic and mobile, formed during a relatively recent 5,000-year period of cooling, when local summer temperatures dropped by about 2.7 degrees Celsius, according to the scientists’ research.

    The fact that there was cooling in that period, which included the Little Ice Age, makes the discovery of newly exposed plants that are at least 44,000 years old even more significant, Miller said. It means that the region’s heat-up occurred rapidly in the last century, and is likely to continue there at a similarly rapid pace, he said. Commonly used models of future warming are probably too conservative, he said. “The models are underestimating Arctic amplification,” he said.

    Miller and his colleagues returned to Baffin Island this summer, and also began collecting and testing plants from Svalbard, Greenland and Iceland to see if they are of the same vintage.

    Contact Yereth Rosen at yereth(at)alaskadispatch.com

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    hotter now than in 44,000 years

    Yereth Rosen
    October 25, 2013

    Plants uncovered by melted ice on the highlands of Canada’s Baffin Island were found through radiocarbon dating to be 44,000 years or older, meaning today’s summers in the region could be warmer than at any time since that era or even earlier. Matthew Kennedy

    Ancient plants exposed by newly melted ice on Baffin Island suggest that summers in the eastern Canadian Arctic are warmer now than they have been for at least 44,000 years, and possibly for about three times that long, according to a new study published online this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    Those rooted plants were ice-covered even 11,000 years ago, when the northern hemisphere was at its closest possible position to the sun due to the planet's tilt and rotation, the study says. In that period, known as the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the northern hemisphere received 9 percent more solar heat than it does today.

    With the eastern Canadian Arctic now basking in warmer summers than even at that period, the only logical explanation is man-made carbon emissions, said project leader Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado.

    Natural cycles cannot explain the results, he said.

    Miller, associate director of Colorado's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and his fellow scientists based their research on samples collected over three field seasons on Baffin Island. There, the researchers collected fist-sized mosses that were popping out of newly-uncovered earth. The old plants were measured by radiocarbon dating as 44,000 to 51,000 years old. Since radiocarbon dating cannot measure reliably beyond about 50,000 years, the newly uncovered plants could be could be much older -- up to 120,000 years old, according to Miller and his fellow researchers.

    Well-known examination of ice cores from nearby Greenland shows that the last time the Arctic was potentially as warm as it is today was 120,000 years ago, at the end of the last interglacial period.

    No matter how old the dead plants are, they didn't appear at first to be much different from the young plants growing far outside the ice’s edge, Miller said in a telephone interview.  

    "These plants are rooted. So when they come out, they look just like the tundra plants that are alive, but they’re dead," he said.

    But the dead plants, once exposed to the elements, can crumble or else disintegrate in wind or water, Miller said. So he and his colleagues, ferried to Baffin Island by helicopter, had to work fast to collect their samples.

    Those very old plants were, until the recent melting, held fast by high-altitude ice that did not move around, Miller said.

    While probing the edges of that ice, the scientists did find other objects exposed, including caribou bones. But since animal bones are mobile, they don’t provide as much information as the old, rooted plants, he said.

    “The nice thing about plants is we know they haven’t moved,” he said.

    Among the 365 samples collected were younger plants found at lower elevations, covered up by ice for about the last 3,000 to 4,000 years, Miller said. But those areas of ice were more dynamic and mobile, formed during a relatively recent 5,000-year period of cooling, when local summer temperatures dropped by about 2.7 degrees Celsius, according to the scientists’ research.

    The fact that there was cooling in that period, which included the Little Ice Age, makes the discovery of newly exposed plants that are at least 44,000 years old even more significant, Miller said. It means that the region’s heat-up occurred rapidly in the last century, and is likely to continue there at a similarly rapid pace, he said. Commonly used models of future warming are probably too conservative, he said. “The models are underestimating Arctic amplification,” he said.

    Miller and his colleagues returned to Baffin Island this summer, and also began collecting and testing plants from Svalbard, Greenland and Iceland to see if they are of the same vintage.

    Contact Yereth Rosen at yereth(at)alaskadispatch.com

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    Arctic temperatures hotter now than in 44,000 years

    Yereth Rosen
    October 25, 2013

    Plants uncovered by melted ice on the highlands of Canada’s Baffin Island were found through radiocarbon dating to be 44,000 years or older, meaning today’s summers in the region could be warmer than at any time since that era or even earlier. Matthew Kennedy

    Ancient plants exposed by newly melted ice on Baffin Island suggest that summers in the eastern Canadian Arctic are warmer now than they have been for at least 44,000 years, and possibly for about three times that long, according to a new study published online this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    Those rooted plants were ice-covered even 11,000 years ago, when the northern hemisphere was at its closest possible position to the sun due to the planet's tilt and rotation, the study says. In that period, known as the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the northern hemisphere received 9 percent more solar heat than it does today.

    With the eastern Canadian Arctic now basking in warmer summers than even at that period, the only logical explanation is man-made carbon emissions, said project leader Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado.

    Natural cycles cannot explain the results, he said.

    Miller, associate director of Colorado's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and his fellow scientists based their research on samples collected over three field seasons on Baffin Island. There, the researchers collected fist-sized mosses that were popping out of newly-uncovered earth. The old plants were measured by radiocarbon dating as 44,000 to 51,000 years old. Since radiocarbon dating cannot measure reliably beyond about 50,000 years, the newly uncovered plants could be could be much older -- up to 120,000 years old, according to Miller and his fellow researchers.

    Well-known examination of ice cores from nearby Greenland shows that the last time the Arctic was potentially as warm as it is today was 120,000 years ago, at the end of the last interglacial period.

    No matter how old the dead plants are, they didn't appear at first to be much different from the young plants growing far outside the ice’s edge, Miller said in a telephone interview.  

    "These plants are rooted. So when they come out, they look just like the tundra plants that are alive, but they’re dead," he said.

    But the dead plants, once exposed to the elements, can crumble or else disintegrate in wind or water, Miller said. So he and his colleagues, ferried to Baffin Island by helicopter, had to work fast to collect their samples.

    Those very old plants were, until the recent melting, held fast by high-altitude ice that did not move around, Miller said.

    While probing the edges of that ice, the scientists did find other objects exposed, including caribou bones. But since animal bones are mobile, they don’t provide as much information as the old, rooted plants, he said.

    “The nice thing about plants is we know they haven’t moved,” he said.

    Among the 365 samples collected were younger plants found at lower elevations, covered up by ice for about the last 3,000 to 4,000 years, Miller said. But those areas of ice were more dynamic and mobile, formed during a relatively recent 5,000-year period of cooling, when local summer temperatures dropped by about 2.7 degrees Celsius, according to the scientists’ research.

    The fact that there was cooling in that period, which included the Little Ice Age, makes the discovery of newly exposed plants that are at least 44,000 years old even more significant, Miller said. It means that the region’s heat-up occurred rapidly in the last century, and is likely to continue there at a similarly rapid pace, he said. Commonly used models of future warming are probably too conservative, he said. “The models are underestimating Arctic amplification,” he said.

    Miller and his colleagues returned to Baffin Island this summer, and also began collecting and testing plants from Svalbard, Greenland and Iceland to see if they are of the same vintage.

    Contact Yereth Rosen at yereth(at)alaskadispatch.com

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    12 Monkeys...............
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 27 2013 at 9:37pm
    Originally posted by Crying Out Loud Crying Out Loud wrote:

    Elver, exactly what...are my so called expectations?
     
    And you also said this: 
     
    Originally posted by Crying Out Loud Crying Out Loud wrote:

      The world reminds me of a huge trash pit.
     
     
    From your previous posts it would seem that your expectations are for perfect society because you abhor everything about our world as it is today.  Face the reality that we are in and make the most of it.  Your logon name of "crying out loud" speaks for itself.
     
    By the way, I hate it when people speak of suicide as an answer to things.  Get on some medication if you have to and lighten up.
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2013 at 6:55am

    sé·ance

    /ˈseɪɑns/ Show Spelled [sey-ahns] Show IPA
    noun
    1.
    a meeting in which a spiritualist attempts to communicate with the spirits of the dead.
    2.
    a session or sitting, as of a class or organization.
     
    Pertaining to the high fever pitch, producing radical climate change. The time is now to use the buzzing fever planes. Drop low and smother this heated sickness with powdered aspirin. Then grab your gun, hold it close, like you would a long lost love, and happily go to sleep. Hold a seance, and contact Dr. Jesus in the Morning. Don't worry...be happy!Smile
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2013 at 7:52pm
    Sarcasm - sär-secondarystresskaz-schwam
    a remark made usually to hurt someone's feelings or show scorn.
     
    a cutting remark used in scathing replies.

    A form of wit that that is intended to make its victim the butt of contempt or ridicule.
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 30 2013 at 9:21am

    You ask why inhuemans "need" a pandemic. The following message will help clarify the justified reason.

     
     

    1. This age of perversion, glorifies the criminal's soul

    For a Mafioso's delight, is a family with holes.

    The truth is discarded; their political gaming is bold,

    All hearts are broken, as the helpless and innocent,

    Are brutally enslaved....bundled and sold.

     

    2. For the taxmen, an unjust bounty,

    Crooked justice and judgment demands fees...

    What is left? Priest craft, terror, poverty and disease.

    No aid for the down trod, no regard for the saint,

    A wronged prisoner's rest, is now, death's dying faint.

     

    3. The stages were set, the scenes open wide,

    Hypnotic suggestion, a purse filled with false pride.

    Now the fools (militant psychological testers)

    And their prisoners (subjects), will forever be parted,

    For the tests, old and new, were not to be started.

     

    4. Their engineers developed the tests for the process,

    To keep us conformed, through their mind reaching access.

    They watched us contained, like a dog in their cage,

    To punish, or reward, when they got in a rage.

     

    5. They asked us our age, gender, ethnicity and race,

    In order to form a psychological test for our taste.

    They justified their cruelty, then sneered at our pain.

    As they followed their occultic demonic manuals,

    Ordered to bless and support their criminal gain.

     

    6. They would tell us a word, to connect with a thought,

    In hope their perverted ideals, would be accepted and bought.

    They lied and distorted the figures and facts,

    For fraud, drugs, and death, must not leave any tracks.

     

    7. They pretended they loved us; they looked like they cared,

    Yet, love does not hurt, humiliate and scare.

    They said, “You’re confused; you must now take your pill,

    For no one believes the mentally ill."

     

    8. Then they said that we're crazy, and doctors are wise,

    Yet, we could see through their governments, a devil's disguise.

    It is not a crime, to be sick in the head,

    The crime is in the perversion, which made up our bed.

     

    9. Then they told us we're stupid, we're deaf, and we're blind,

    That it's good to be tested, and their cruelty, is kind.

    Then they said that we're blessed... to live as we do,

    "It could always be worse, don't be a fool."

     

    10. Their transcripts and dramas, perverted with schemes,

    Semetic (schematic) from berth, inaugurate immorality,

    Shame, and exhibitionists themes.

    Now the actors are lost, is their circus time show,

    Their pay for performance, they exchanged for the mates of their soul.

     

    11. Malfeasance the dragon, truth's sword shines no more,

    The hay singing (hazing) needle, the blood on the floor.

    The spinners, the weavers, a perverted story to sell,

    A slip of the tongue, a waterless well.(no justice)

     

    12. The threads of their fabrication plants,

    Are now ripped through the seams, exposing signers of lies,

    Satanic congregations, their fans, players and teams.

    The therapists, contracts, the clients, the pain,

    Experimental research, devised for criminal experiential gain.

     

    13. The leaders of their groups, said, “It is all in good fun,"

    Then, why weren't we laughing, when faced with your gun?

    They starved us, and raped us, then laughed us to scorn,

    Took videos of our nakedness, then they used us for porn.

     

    14. The fires they started, the flames they have thrown,

    Have not been forgotten, nor have our lost homes.

    Our Mothers they tortured, our Fathers they beat,

    As they claimed us for theirs, through their cults in the heat.

     

    15. Our behavior they modified, to fit their cruel schemes,

    Taking away our God given gifts, and destroying our dreams.

    Our Wholly Spirits they damaged, broke and denied,

    "Our cults have great power," they acknowledged with pride.

     

    16. The time they blocked out to keep us in line,

    Thinking for and educating ourselves, was a dangerous sign.

    So they controlled where we lived, and what we would eat,

    If we said one wrong word, we would end up in the street.

     

    17. They chose what we would wear, and when we could sleep,

    If we could care for our bodies, and which necessities keep.

    They branded our illness, forced us with dangerous drugs,

    Then gave shocks to our brains, with electrical plugs.

     

    18. They said, "Do not question our ethics, it breaks the morale,

    You know what will happen; we will place you in jail.

    No one will miss you, no one will care,

    To humble you further, your body, we will now publicly bare".

     

    19. When we would not conform to their immorality code,

    Filthy, dangerous, perverted ethics, and rules,

    They taught us new lessons, in their specialized, debasing schools.

    They locked us in cold, empty violent cells,

    Then kept us so long with no one to tell.

     

    20. We pleaded for mercy, for a blanket, a stool,

    We were told, “Your toilet is now a hole in the floor,

    By special law, and decree, this is our judicial rule".

    They gave us no water for drinking, no soap with to wash,

    Their cruel brutal comments,

    Crushed our sacred emotions, our identity?...Lost..

     

    21. The caves of our minds are not meat for their dining pleasure,

    Or for stirring up gold dust looking for treasure.

    We pleaded; we begged them, to stop from the start,

    Now, what they said has been done, and now we must part.

     

    22. We were not to be used for experiments and pain,

    No life belongs to another, for booty, and criminal gain.

    Because they have taught us to hate, fear, and condemn,

    Their travels with us must now be brought to an end.

     

    23. We hope they are learning, that it is not very wise,

    To raise up corruption and to fabricate lies.

    It is always foolish to punish a true saint,

    Giving any opening, or reward to an obvious barbaric sinner,

    Every child of right knows this truth, as a basic beginner.

     

    24. For God is always good, and devils are not,

    It is unlucky for them, that they chose the demons' dark plot.

    For the role of any devil, his advocates and throne,

    Are simply, these inhuman imposters, whose unrighteous authority,

    Immorality, and lawlessness, have never, ever, been condoned.

     

    25. As this chapter of their unjust lifestyle now comes to an end,

    Their pay for their criminal performance is theirs now to spend.

    As they humbly unwrap their unfortunate gifts, and rewards,

    They are coming to realize, that to resurrect evil,

    Is to bring down upon themselves... God's Justified Sword.

     

    26. While they are returned to life's desert

    And they are searching in vain,

    For the mercy they will crave,

    As they re-enter, in their own chosen type of reign,

    Once again they will pray, for an angel to dwell,

    Alive in their presence, so they can get well.

     

    27. Yet how can we trust them, their words are in vain,

    Our memories are so burdened with their cruelty, and pain.

    Someday, if they study, and work hard, as we do,

    They will find, that these Criminal Governments,

    Have no love in their hearts for me, them...or you.

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 30 2013 at 12:07pm
    Can not see a damn thing!
    WHAT TO DO????
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2013 at 2:28pm

    Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies

    Josh Haner/The New York Times

    A United Nations panel of scientists says that globally, rising temperatures will make it harder for crops to thrive.

    By JUSTIN GILLIS
    Published: November 1, 2013 589 Comments
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    Climate change will pose sharp risks to the world’s food supply in coming decades, potentially undermining crop production and driving up prices at a time when the demand for food is expected to soar, scientists have found.

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    In a departure from an earlier assessment, the scientists concluded that rising temperatures will have some beneficial effects on crops in some places, but that globally they will make it harder for crops to thrive — perhaps reducing production over all by as much as 2 percent each decade for the rest of this century, compared with what it would be without climate change.

    And, the scientists say, they are already seeing the harmful effects in some regions.

    The warnings come in a leaked draft of a report under development by a United Nations panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The document is not final and could change before it is released in March.

    The report also finds other sweeping impacts from climate change already occurring across the planet, and warns that these are likely to intensify as human emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise. The scientists describe a natural world in turmoil as plants and animals colonize new areas to escape rising temperatures, and warn that many could become extinct.

    The warning on the food supply is the sharpest in tone the panel has issued. Its previous report, in 2007, was more hopeful. While it did warn of risks and potential losses in output, particularly in the tropics, that report found that gains in production at higher latitudes would most likely offset the losses and ensure an adequate global supply.

    The new tone reflects a large body of research in recent years that has shown how sensitive crops appear to be to heat waves. The recent work also challenges previous assumptions about how much food production could increase in coming decades because of higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The gas, though it is the main reason for global warming, also acts as a kind of fertilizer for plants.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the principal scientific body charged with reviewing and assessing climate science, then issuing reports about the risks to the world’s governments. Its main reports come out every five to six years. The group won the Nobel Peace Prize, along with Al Gore, in 2007 for its efforts.

    Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent every year to reduce emissions in response to past findings from the group, though many analysts have said these efforts are so far inadequate to head off drastic climatic changes later in the century.

    On the food supply, the new report finds that benefits from global warming may be seen in some areas, like northern lands that are now marginal for food production. But it adds that over all, global warming could reduce agricultural production by as much as 2 percent each decade for the rest of this century.

    During that period, demand is expected to rise as much as 14 percent each decade, the report found, as the world population is projected to grow to 9.6 billion in 2050, from 7.2 billion today, according to the United Nations, and as many of those people in developing countries acquire the money to eat richer diets.

    Any shortfall would lead to rising food prices that would hit the world’s poor hardest, as has already occurred from price increases of recent years. Research has found that climate change, particularly severe heat waves, was a factor in those price spikes.

    The agricultural risks “are greatest for tropical countries, given projected impacts that exceed adaptive capacity and higher poverty rates compared with temperate regions,” the draft report finds.

    If the report proves to be correct about the effect on crops from climate change, global food demand might have to be met — if it can be met — by putting new land into production. That could entail chopping down large areas of forest, an action that would only accelerate climate change by sending substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the air from the destruction of trees.

    The report finds that efforts to adapt to climate change have already begun in many countries. President Obama signed an executive order on Friday to step up such efforts in the United States. But these efforts remain inadequate compared with the risks, the report says, and far more intensive — and expensive — adaptation plans are likely to be required in the future.

    The document also finds that it is not too late for cuts in emissions to have a strong impact on the future risks of climate change, though the costs would be incurred in the next few decades and the main benefits would probably be seen in the late 21st century and beyond.

    The leak of the new draft occurred on a blog hostile to the intergovernmental panel. In a brief interview, a spokesman for the panel, Jonathan Lynn, did not dispute the authenticity of the document.

    “It’s a work in progress,” Mr. Lynn said. “It’s likely to change.”

    Several scientists involved in drafting the document declined on Friday to speak publicly about it. In the Internet era, the group’s efforts to keep its drafts secret are proving to be a failure, and some of the scientists involved have called for a drafting process open to the public.

    A report about the physical science of climate change leaked in August, then underwent only modest changes before its final release in Stockholm in late September. The new report covers the impact of climate change, efforts to adapt to it, and the vulnerability of human and natural systems.

    A third report, analyzing potential ways to limit the rise of greenhouse gases, is due for release in Berlin in April.

    A version of this article appears in print on November 2, 2013, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies.



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    12 Monkeys...............
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2013 at 2:38pm
    an we have some debate on the subject please ,

    or is reality to hard for you to swallow????


    some  here seem not be in my reality ??......


     are there are to many people on the Planet,
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2013 at 2:43pm
    And the UN estimates the population by mid century will require us to increase food production by an additional 70%... Ermm
    "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
    "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2013 at 2:43pm

    Fox Responds To New Obama Climate Action With Global Warming Denial

    Blog ››› ››› MATT GERTZ
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    Fox News attacked President Obama's decision to sign an executive order that will make it easier for states and communities to prepare for impacts of climate change by denying the existence of global warming.

    On November 1, Obama signed an executive order on climate preparedness. The New York Times reported that the order will "make it easier for states and communities to build resilience against storms, droughts and other weather extremes" and establish "a high-level task force of state and local leaders to offer advice to the federal government" on how to help local communities deal with climate change.

    Reporting on the executive order during the November 2 edition of Fox & Friends Saturday, co-host Tucker Carlson denied the existence of global warming. He said that "temperatures have not risen in the past several years, they have gone down," and claimed there is "an emerging scientific consensus that we may be in for a period of global cooling caused not by greenhouse gases but by fluctuations in solar energy -- sun spots."

    Carlson concluded that those calling for action in response to climate change "what they don't know definitively is the truth. And no one wants to admit -- maybe there's some things they don't fully understand. Why not just admit that?"

    Contrary to Carlson's claim that an "emerging scientific consensus" predicts an upcoming period of global cooling, 97 percent of climate scientists and most leading U.S. scientific societies agree that a climate-warming trend has existed over the last century and that the trend is "very likely due to human activities."  In September, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which convenes hundreds of top climate experts from around the world to assess the scientific understanding of climate change, released a report concluding that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal" and will continue under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

    While climate scientists overwhelmingly believe the Earth is warming, Fox News has relentlessly championed climate change denial. This coverage has a real impact on the network's conservative viewers - while two-thirds of Americans believe in global warming, only 25 percent of Tea Party Republicans agree.

    The IPCC has also addressed the short-term trend that Carlson refers to when he says that "temperatures have not risen in the past several years, they have gone down." According to the IPCC, such trends are due to natural variability and do "not in general reflect long-term climate trends." The IPCC finds it more significant that "[e]ach of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850," and predicts temperatures will keep rising in the long run.

    A chart published previously by Skeptical Science illustrates how a short-term trend can be cherry picked from the longer warming signal:

    < id="short-">
    < id="short--" value=" http://mm4a.org/1hClGeu">
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    The Sydney Morning Herald

    Environment

    You are here: Home Environment Weather Article

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    Climate pioneers see little chance of avoiding dangerous global warming

    Climate

    The sun is setting on efforts to curb carbon emissions in time to avoid significant climate disruption. Photo: Reuters

    The only three living diplomats who have led the United Nations global warming talks said there's little chance the next climate treaty will prevent the world from overheating.

    The specific goal, to hold temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius, was endorsed by envoys from 190 nations in 2010. It's considered the maximum the environment can bear before climate change becomes more dangerous. Delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meet in Warsaw starting Nov. 11 to work on a treaty that could be agreed to in 2015.

    The comments from the current and former executive secretaries to the UNFCCC add to the urgency of the Warsaw talks. Humans already have emitted more than half the greenhouse gases needed to surpass the 2-degree target, a panel of scientists brought together by the UN concluded in September.

    The World Bank last year said the planet is on track to warm by 4 degrees this century, a level that would raise the seas, worsen droughts and make storms more violent.

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    “There is nothing that can be agreed in 2015 that would be consistent with the 2 degrees,” said Yvo de Boer, who was UNFCCC executive secretary in 2009, when attempts to reach a deal at a summit in Copenhagen crumbled with a rift between industrialised and developing nations. “The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2-degree goal is to shut down the whole global economy.”

    Treaty talks

    The Warsaw meeting will continue work toward a treaty limiting carbon dioxide emissions in all nations. The aim is to complete the text in 2015 and for targets to take effect in 2020. Even the current diplomat managing the process says success will require further steps beyond the treaty.

    “I don't think even a 2015 agreement is going to all of a sudden overnight result in a 2-degree pathway,” Christiana Figueres, the current UNFCCC executive secretary, told reporters last month in London. “There is no agreement that is a miracle.”

    Figueres, 57, who succeeded de Boer, 59, in 2010, said then that she doubted a final agreement on climate change will happen in her lifetime. At the London conference, she said a 2015 treaty must “very visibly and palpably affect the trajectory of emissions,” bringing them to a peak this decade, before declining to zero net emissions after 2050.

    The challenge faced by policy makers worldwide is to reverse the rising output of greenhouse gases without hindering economic development.

    tonnes of carbon

    The UN Environment Program said last year that under existing policies, annual carbon emissions are on pace to reach 58 gigatonnes (58 billion tonnes) in 2020, up from 50 gigatonnes in 2010. More than 50 nations have made pledges that would reduce the 2020 level to 52 gigatonnes. To remain on track to limit warming to 2 degrees, emissions in 2020 can't exceed 44 gigatonnes, UNEP said.

    “The economic realities, the energy security realities, the poverty eradication realities, the access to energy realities are such that the main thing is to get as many countries as possible to make as bold a next step as they can without feeling threatened,” de Boer, now a special adviser on climate change to the accounting firm KPMG LLP, said from Seoul. “By definition a 2015 outcome, even a brilliant one, must be inadequate, and it will lead to severe impacts.”

    'Inertia'

    Those comments reflect “the inertia and the amount of effort it's taking to get this change,” Samantha Smith, who leads the climate program at the environmental group WWF, said in an interview. “If we're pinning all of our hopes on an agreement in 2015 that is going to get us under 2 degrees, then we've got the wrong approach.”

    Some nations are pushing for a lower temperature target. The 44-member Alliance of Small Island States and the 49-country bloc of Least Developed Countries say a 1.5-degree cap is needed to protect low-lying regions from the rising sea levels and more intense storms caused by climate change.

    “My hunch is that we won't be there in 2015, but we'll hopefully take a big step toward being there,” Michael Zammit Cutajar, the first UNFCCC executive secretary, said in an interview from St. Julian's, Malta. Some commentaries conclude that humans should aim for 2 degrees and prepare for 4, “which is quite a sensible suggestion,” he said.

    Zammit Cutajar, 72, set up the UNFCCC secretariat in 1991, a year before the convention was adopted at the Rio Earth Summit. He was succeeded in 2002 by Joke Waller-Hunter, who died in office in 2005.

    Figueres's view

    Figueres said work done outside the formal UNFCCC talks will complement a treaty. Those include bilateral efforts by the U.S. and China, the two largest emitters, to develop carbon capture and storage technology, reduce emissions of the potent global warming gases hydrofluorocarbons and increase the energy- efficiency of buildings and cities.

    “An international agreement is by no means the whole answer,” U.S. lead climate envoy Todd Stern said in an Oct. 22 speech at the London climate conference. “The most important drivers of climate action are countries acting at home.”

    The falling price of renewable energy may accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels and curb emissions, said former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.

    Fossil threashold

    “The difference between renewable energy at prices above that of fossil fuels compared to renewable energy at prices below that of fossil fuels is a threshold” similar to the melting point of ice, Gore said Oct. 17 in a phone interview. “Growth in production and deployment is going to accelerate as the price continues to go down.”

    To meet the 2-degree target, about two-thirds of proven fossil-fuel reserves must remain in the ground, mostly coal, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

    “There is much more carbon underground than the amount which can still be released if dangerous climate change should be avoided,” Ottmar Edenhofer, chief economist at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview. “The challenge is that we have to provide the right incentives to the users of coal, oil and gas to leave a remarkable amount of these fossil fuels underground.”

    Under the IEA's central forecast, about half of reserves will remain untapped, putting the planet on track to warm by 3.6 degrees, its chief economist, Fatih Birol, said.

    “Paris 2015 is perhaps the last chance before we say that the 2-degree target will be almost impossible to reach,” Birol said in a phone interview. “If we have an agreement in Paris we can still theoretically have a chance to change the path.”


    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/climate-pioneers-see-little-chance-of-avoiding-dangerous-global-warming-20131105-2wyon.html#ixzz2jlTiyFTi
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