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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

It's been fun but I'm finished.

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Nergal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nergal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2014 at 7:07pm
Kilt2, very funny comment.  I like sharp things.  When will the nice men with the white coats get here?  I want to show them my sharp things and just how good I have gotten with them.  I sure could use a nice new jacket.  My old one wore out from wriggling out if it too many times.  I am sure your simple comment with vitually no thought behind it has amused you to no end.  It amused me.  It didn't take me long to point one out.  He he he.  I tell you what, write something that at least has enough substance to become debatable and I will get back to you in a year or two.  If you really dismiss these things as a joke, well, then too bad for you.  At least you have your sense of humor, your going to need it.  I came here seeking intelligent conversation so I MUST be crazy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote alpha480v Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2014 at 2:10pm
Hey Nergal, have you ever heard of Paragraphs?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 12:58am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Usualy the end of the flu-season on the northern hemisphere means the beginning of the flu-season on the southern half of the earth. Severe epidemics in one part do not predict that much on any other part of our planet. 

Also to variaty of virusses H10N8 in China, H5N8 in Korea, H7N7 etc should provide enough interesting information. The "flu-season" is a statistic instrument, nothing more. H7N9 this time might remain active during warmer weather. With MERS, resistant forms of Tuberculosis etc. possible coinfections are widespread. 

Better translations would be a great help; it would be nice when a new member on this forum was able to better translate from Chinese, Spanish or Arabic news sources. But also the severe present
 flu-cases, that are still trying to get better, treatment-methods etc. is worth discussing.




I agree.
Imagine how valuable a Chinese, feet on the ground contributor might be to this forum during an emergent event.
Then try to imagine how unlikely this forum could attract such a person with the likes of Kilt posting the non stop Death Star BS.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 5:00am
Guests, I do not come here for Kilt or for any other person I com here to find and discuss news in a usefull way, when possible. A "forum" is a marketplace were all people offer their own thing otherwise it has no use of exchanging views and opinions. I do not always agree with other people on this forum and I hope others do not always agree with me, but lets discuss things !

We, as humans, have so much in common, living on this planet for such a short time. I do not want to invest energy in fighting other people or claiming "he started it"; I'm to old for that now. 

If you want to stay angry over BS while "BS" is all around on this planet feel free to do so !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 5:32am
Its not BS

I got the title from a Bloomberg article - and the economy in China is in dire straits like the USA before 2008.

Apart from the economic calamity about to hit the planet, there are 2 viruses about to deal death all around the planet - H5N1 and H7N9.

Both from China and both ready to deal death to millions.

If you don't like it - stiff cheese - life's a bitch and then you die.


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 1:32pm
Dutch Josh,very well said.Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 4:53pm
Originally posted by Nergal Nergal wrote:

Kilt2, very funny comment.  I like sharp things.  When will the nice men with the white coats get here?  I want to show them my sharp things and just how good I have gotten with them.  I sure could use a nice new jacket.  My old one wore out from wriggling out if it too many times.  I am sure your simple comment with vitually no thought behind it has amused you to no end.  It amused me.  It didn't take me long to point one out.  He he he.  I tell you what, write something that at least has enough substance to become debatable and I will get back to you in a year or two.  If you really dismiss these things as a joke, well, then too bad for you.  At least you have your sense of humor, your going to need it.  I came here seeking intelligent conversation so I MUST be crazy.


I.....

I got nothing.

And it's "You're" as in You Are.

As opposed to the possessive Your.

If you're going to be bat***** crazy, you might as well have good grammar like the rest of us who are insane.
Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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DANNYKELLEY View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 6:44pm
WHAT TO DO????
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2014 at 9:59pm
Hey, I love this place!  Hug

I haven't seen that much tin-foil hat material....even the "death star" posts had some good back & forth! 

It ticks me off that EVERYONE got all riled up about H5N1....the US public health system has been all ramped up, waiting & waiting....  isolation wards at hospitals were built, n95 flu masks stockpiled, endless training etc.  

Viruses ain't that predictable, folks.  Already, the mortality count for H7N9 far exceeds H5N1, but the world of public health just yawns.  H1N1 swine flu burst out unexpectedly, and the public health infrastructure were caught pants-down.  MERS silently incubates, while many other potential pandemic agents (Nipah, Marburg etc.) are laying in the weeds.  

Keep on posting!  And don't forget, that tinfoil hat MAY protect you if we have a Carrington Event sized coronal mass ejection!!  
CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 2:10am
@Kilt, if this forum had to much BS I would not be here ! With your story concerning China having a combination of risk-factors I think you have a point. China is on its way from a third-world country to a leading economy and that does bring risks. When you look at living conditions in Africa I am surprised only HIV/AIDS did get a world-wide problem. A lot of missery stays in Africa due to poverty and (therefor) a lack of transportation. Ebola usualy stays local and remote because "it travels on foot or maybe on a pickup-truck". On the other hand Western economies also sometimes look like organized chaos. China is a problem but it is not the only problem and the only way humanity can survive is by worldwide co-operation. Pandemics, supervolcano's, climatechange, economic problems, poverty demand a worldwide aproach !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 4:24am
CRS DrPH, I love this site too. 

I also love the BS, as long as it has not got nasty.  Turboguy's grammar lesson will have me chuckling for a week.  If I split my sides I just might escape my own jacket!

Seriously though,  As a long-time prepper, I sleep better at night knowing that this early warning system functions so well.

Even the BS can sometimes be revealing.  The realy big science breakthroughs usually come from the "left field" or fringes.  If we all only followed the mainstream we would still be searching for phlogiston and the ether.  The scientific method is still the driving force but when it is wielded by the very bright they can look mighty wierd to everyone else. 

So keep the tin foil hats in production, turn up the BS and  power to the nutters! HA HA HA HA!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 5:11am
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Hey, I love this place!  Hug

I haven't seen that much tin-foil hat material....even the "death star" posts had some good back & forth! 

It ticks me off that EVERYONE got all riled up about H5N1....the US public health system has been all ramped up, waiting & waiting....  isolation wards at hospitals were built, n95 flu masks stockpiled, endless training etc.  

Viruses ain't that predictable, folks.  Already, the mortality count for H7N9 far exceeds H5N1, but the world of public health just yawns.  H1N1 swine flu burst out unexpectedly, and the public health infrastructure were caught pants-down.  MERS silently incubates, while many other potential pandemic agents (Nipah, Marburg etc.) are laying in the weeds.  

Keep on posting!  And don't forget, that tinfoil hat MAY protect you if we have a Carrington Event sized coronal mass ejection!!  



Carrington Event ???


why that's just kids stuff Big smile


apparently something a whole lot nastier hit the Earth at one time Cry


Solar peril: Could a giant sunburst unplug the Earth?

http://jacksonville.com/news/2014-04-06/story/solar-peril-could-giant-sunburst-unplug-earth#ixzz2yDnMmAsV

article contains a few things I had not heard of before

“Nor could we know whether the Carrington event was as bad as sunstorms get. Melott, in a 2012 paper, proposed that material from a solar megaflare 10 times the strength of the Carrington kind bombarded this planet around the year 775. There just weren’t wires to get blown out. There were cedar trees, however, that absorbed a heavy dose of something from outer space.

Japanese scientists discovered a baffling spike in carbon-14 deposits within tree rings dating to the eighth century. In a study published in the Journal Nature, they floated the possibility of a supernova causing the deposits because a burst so powerful from the sun had never been recorded.

But Melott, along with Washburn University professor Brian Thomas and others, countered the Japanese findings with their own published study. It challenged the notion that the Carrington event was the all-time mother of sun flares emanating to Earth.

Carrington “was a biggie,” Melott said, but maybe not the biggest. Beware the “Charlemagne event,” Melott’s nod to the eighth-century warrior and king.”

move over Carrington !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 8:09am
If you look through the thousands of posts going back to AFT's early days you'll probably see more non-flu related posts, especially in (but not limited to) the general discussion section. It's just the nature of the forum to go OT when flu drops out of the news, and if you stick around long enough to see the alert level go up and down a few times, you'll get used to the diverse thread topics that keep AFT ticking over between pandemic scares. If a thread isn't to your liking, just leave it alone and post in the ones that are relevant to your interests. There are sites that cater just to pandemic flu related topics and don't tolerate much in the way of off topic discussion (or free thought...), but I find those to be too dry and self important to spend much time in. It can get a little contentious here at times, but at least it's never boring.
Stick around to see how much fun it is around election time Shocked
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 8:17am
Originally posted by Nergal Nergal wrote:

I came here seeking intelligent conversation so I MUST be crazy.



Yep - we hear that a lot around here.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 9:22am
Election time, Jacksdad?  That is everyday.  We are warming up for an independance referendum here.

Opinions please! 

Anyone?
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Johnray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 10:10am
Technophobe,will London accept an independent Scotland?Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 1:22pm
Assuming the vote is yes, then yes.  They have no real choice.

However, it is probably unlikely it will be a vote for independance.  The independance movement here has been growing steadily for decades but it started as quite a small minority.  The government in London saw the writing on the wall (for a change-they usually fail to predict things quite spectacularly) and decided to go for a referendum while Scotland's independance movement was still quite small.

The idea seems to to have been to call their bluff.  It could still backfire though.  There are a lot of Scots who are rabidly anti-English.

The English government then did something amazingly stupid, even for them.  They tried to force the Scottish to remain in the union by insisting they could not share stirling currency.  This turned out not to be true (as was leaked or so it seems, of course that may be a lie).  They continued finding "reasons" to stay in which repeatedly turned out to be either false or only half true.  This has enraged/inflamed many Scots who now do not believe anything which comes out of Westminster.  They are the undisputed masters of the "own goal".

I, myself, am of Irish/Scottish descent.  However I was born and raised in England and sound English.  My heart says vote for independance but looming potential discrimination makes my head say vote against.   I await the outcome with bated breath.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 2:03pm
I have been a member of the SNP (Scottish National Party) for approximately 25 years and I can state categorically that the Scots, in general, dislike the English intensely, consider the Irish to be at best "second class citizens" and generally dislike "incomers"  ie. people of non Scots origin. 

I am on my father's side of Norman and Irish descent, on my mother's side Native Canadian, Native American and "white" Canadian.  I am middle class.  My father was honoured by her Majesty in 1960 and obviously my father's family arrived in Britain around 1066 and have served the British nation ever since, one way or another, militarly and as civil servants.  I, myself, personally have spent my life serving my country one way or another.  Yet, certain members of the Scottish Social Services lied about comments I had made and I was arrested and charged with a number of serious offences.

If you have a gun licence and the appropriate weapons and the police come to your house the first thing they do is to take your guns and your gun licence.  Although all the charges brought against me by the Social Services were proved to be spurious and dropped, I was at the time the police arrived working on a 9mm shotgun in my bedroom.  The bolt was locked in my gun cabinet, so legaly no crime was commited.  I was also charged with having a shotgun which was not registered.  My paperwork showed that I had registered it though the police claimed it was never sent in to them.  I believe this to be untrue and that the local police had problems with their computing services at the time and a number of gun registrations did not go through at their end.  Incidentally I did not have the financial rescourse at the time to hire high class lawers to contend this.  So the gun charges stuck.

Needless to say it is my personal opinion, which I say without prejudice, that there is judicial and police corruption in Scotland, at least in this area, and certain sections of the Scottish Social Services are also corrupt.  These are minor, politically motivated, officials who appear to believe that they have the right to indulge in any activity they like and expect backing from the police, whether they are right or wrong.  For these reasons I will not be voting yes to independance and am actively campaigning against the SNP.

Finally, whilst carying out the (now known to be ilegal orders of the two women concerned in these events)  I had an accident and ruptured my abdominal aorta.  This has caused me to be a permanent invalid for the last three years and though I survived the 97% fatal odds of my operation, my lifespan is now, obviously, extremely limited.  So I don't realy give a damn about the machinations of our useless politcians or the snooping of any of their various cronies (GCHQ etc).

Incidentally, I have met a lot of wonderful Scots, but they were people who would have been wonderful kind and considerate no matter where they came from.  The only people I would trust in Great Britain are Her Majesty the Queen and her family.

I hope that does not sound too bitter Johnray, or any of you who are of scots descent but it felt really good to get it off of my chest!
I like Ike
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2014 at 7:31pm
Anyway - other than that dissertation - the reality is :

1 China is an economic Bubble - all bubbles burst

and

2. Deadly diseases H5N1 and H7N9 and SARS - all come from China.

China is a death star. If Snatchwatch doesn't like reality - not my problem.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2014 at 9:20pm
CRS, DrPH
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