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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Lessons Learned From "Jericho" |
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 Posted: October 26 2006 at 7:50am |
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I can't stand that lady that owns the grocery store. I didn't like her from the get go. Something very strange about her. Remember when the kid found the train full of groceries and he stocked her empty shelves and showed her? Remember her response? She said something like "I can't keep this. It doesn't belong to me...well, okay?" Then she won't give up fertilizer to saving the existing food. She's a peach.
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 8:02am |
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I noticed that. My DH (who is ex-military)and I got into a long discussion about how the government, especially the military, would respond in a situation like this. He's not into prepping - I guess being ex-military, he has more faith in them than I do.  He says the standard plan for any kind of disaster is 1) for 3 days you're on your own, 2) for the next 3 days the local & state govts. help out, 3) if things are still a mess, that's when the feds step in. He's also in food distribution and believes that if things get as bad as Jericho portrays, the military would commandeer food warehouses - that's if people didn't get there and clean them out first.
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Bill 100
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 8:24am |
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I'm ex-military. I believe the state governors would have to call out the National Guard. The us government would be taken off guard, it would be too big. That is if there are any left that can be called up.
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 9:12am |
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Same thought here.........
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roxy
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 9:48am |
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hi to all, I watched after work on tivo{sp?} I think they are finally getting it, the so call good guys, the socalled bad guys got it , survival. prep on , I wonder how we all would react if we were in one town:? Help each other, so sip? roxy
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 9:59am |
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the standard plan for any kind of disaster is 1) for 3 days you're on your own, 2) for the next 3 days the local & state govts. help out,
...........................................................................................................
He means well... it's ok to have faith... but it didn't work like that during the ice storm.
1st 5 days.... on your own.... some had elec after 5 days. and the days after that...on your own. Some had no elec for 3 wks :(
and.....
If we were all in one town during a disaster?
You all can have..... ALL of my Ramen Noodles.... and I'll make you all the boiled cookies you can eat :).
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roxy
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 10:45am |
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thanks for noodles , but only if I'm fainting from lack of food, lol roxy P.S. I don't have any, and don't plan on it., but on second thought , may be I'll buy some for the relatives
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 12:56pm |
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What's with the noodles? I like 'em. Have a couple cases of them in my preps. They're ok on their own, but excellent when added to most other soups. I.e., one can of regular soup with the ramen added feeds a lot more, and has a few more calories to it.
Don't think i could have survived college without the Ramen
 I seem to recall looking at maps during the cold war era of prospective targets within CONUS. Mostly military bases and large infrastructure type targets. Cities were only targeted if there military facilities within them. Unfortunately that also included all those 'hardened' nuke silos.
So, using that as a premise for an attack, most of the major cities, and a lot of the smaller ones would be suffering from extreme radiationa nd severe damage in the event of a full strike. Forget the 3 days premise. Local Guard units might survive, but would they have any authority if they hadn't been activated by their chain of command? No, i think for a full strike we'd be pretty well screwed and on our own for months, if not years.
A limited strike, however, I think is what happened in Jericho, and they might could count on some form of state or national government after maybe six months or so. Frankly, i don't see the national government responding any sooner, especially if Fort Fumble and the Puzzle palace are gone (White House and the Pentagon)...
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 12:58pm |
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He does mean well, Anharra. But after watching governments at EVERY level flounder so spectacularly during Katrina I shake my head that he seems to find prepping unnecessary. But then he is such a resourceful person, a fluid and clear thinker in any kind of emergency, that I think he finds it hard to comprehend my worries and need to be ready for ANYTHING. Plus like I said, he knows where all the food distribution warehouses are . . maybe that's his plan and he just isn't telling me! LOL.
No thanks on the ramen, I HATE that stuff. Are you serious about boiled cookies? What are they? |
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 1:02pm |
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Fiction Writer, I don't understand what you mean by limited strike? All those major cities gone, wouldn't that be considered a full strike? |
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 1:12pm |
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Don't think i could have survived college without the Ramen
................................................................................................
That's our point exactly :)
survival food.
Have you tried them Thai... with a nice spicy peanut sauce...
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boiled cookies? What are they?
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My Auntie made them for us when we were kids, she visited from the south...hot there and no one turned on an oven in the summer.
I told my mom I wasn't going to eat those odd things.
(mind you she was stirring cookies at the stove...?)
They were made of oatmeal, cocoa, peanut butter...
anyway... we all loved them, Auntie was interesting for sure :)
Here are a whole bunch of them for you to choose from...
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 2:00pm |
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A limited nuclear exchange is survivable. A full exchange isn't.
The map shown on one of the Jericho episodes indicated about a dozen or so explosions, if that foreign news service was at all accurate. Widely scattered, strikes, leave much of the country untouched by fallout (depending on prevailing wind patterns, and storm systems).
In a full exchange, each target is saturated by multiple warheads.
Consider the SS-24 (NATO designation Scalpel). It carries 10 warheads each with a 550 KT nominal yield. More than enough to ruin your day, especially with a CEP (Circular Error of Probability) of 500 meters, i.e., the warhead will hit within 500 meters of its target. When talking about a nuke of this yield, 500 meters is pretty accurate.
As of '02, there was one rail mobile division of the SS-24 still in operation in Russia. 15 missiles, each with 10 warheads. 150 warheads that odds are, are still targeted on US cities.
Still, 150 warheads would be considered a limited strike. A full strike, under cold war definitions was enough so that the US would cease to exist as a country. Say, upwards of a thousand warheads. In that ballpark.
In case anyone is wondering as to the facts i've stated here, my source is GlobalSecurity dot org.
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 4:30pm |
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Oh, no-bake cookies. Just a different name. Thanks! |
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 4:33pm |
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Sorry, I'm still having a hard time understanding, please bear with me . . . So is it the number of warheads, not the number of targets, that make it a full strike? Or do you need a lot of warheads hitting a lot of targets to call it a full strike? |
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 4:33pm |
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emmajones
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 4:34pm |
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Sorry, I accidently re-posted the original mesage.
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Posted: October 26 2006 at 5:09pm |
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I have a question too... (she said as she passed around the no bake cookies)
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"...The map shown on one of the Jericho episodes indicated about a dozen or so explosions, if that foreign news service was at all accurate...."
...................................................................................................................
My question is... I was reading about a nuclear winter. Wouldn't they shoot themselves in the foot if they used that much nukie power?
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 3:26am |
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EmmaJones, A full nuclear strike would involve most of a country's nuclear arsenal. At the height of the Cold War, that meant the US and the USSR exchanging something like 5000 MT worth of warheads (MT=Megatons). That would have been enough to devastate any city with a population of 30k or more. That much devastation, and the resultant fallout would have rendered our society, well, it would have resulted in a new Dark Age of man.
A limited nuclear strike, like what i think is being portrayed in Jericho, involves only a small amount of cities. Ok, so Los Angeles was hit, along with DC, New York, and Atlanta. Why are those targets strategically important? DC is the seat of governmental power in the US. New York is a major trade center, and a symbolic hit to the US national pride (No more Statue of Liberty). Atlanta is home of the CDC, one of the agencies that would take the lead in terms of treating people from the radiation and the eventual diseases. LA is another major trade center, with a massive port. Take out New York and LA, and the total trade capacity of the US is greatly diminished. The other speculated targets in the show were Denver, and Dallas, i think. Denver could well have been a miss...i would think they would have targeted NORAD. Dallas is home to a number of military manufacturers; Bell-Textron (V-22 Osprey), GD was also there once upon a time. (General Dynamics). There is also Carswell JRB, which during the Cold War was a major SAC base (It's a Joint Reserve Base now), and it is now home to AF Plant #4 (Lockheed Martin).
The targets they showed on that map, i think, were designed to cause as much disruption as possible, while leaving the agricultural base intact. It looks like the attack also took out most of the west coast shipping centers, leaving the East Coast relatively intact, and the middle coast, almost entirely intact. (There are large ports in Texas, at Houston and Corpus Christi).
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 3:37am |
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Nuclear winter is a hypothetical scenario caused by the massive amounts of soot, smoke, and dust thrown into the atmosphere by a large nuclear exchange. It was first postulated in the 70's, i think, and has been redone more times than i can count.
The gist of the idea is that the large amounts of particulate debris thrown into the atmosphere would block visible light from reaching the ground, resulting in a drop in termperatures. The speculation is that the smoke/dust cloud would eventually encirle the Earth between 30 and 60 degrees latitude (coincidentally, this is where the majority of targets are located), and that the drop in temps would be noticeable. I believe some of the theoretical data indicate a drop of 20-30 celsius for most of the midwest, less in the hotter areas, more in the colder areas. There might be some rain here and there, but by and large, the rain won't fall. Crops die from lack of sunlight and rain.
The theory of nuclear winter goes on to specualte about nuclear summer. The period that will follow. The smoke will eventually dissapate (1 to 2 years), and the result will be higher than normal temperatures, lots and lots of rain, to the point of flooding. There is also specualtion that high altitude bursts of large nuclear devices could mess with the ozone layer, resulting in as much as a 200% increase in UV radiation. Any care for some SPF 5000?
Carl Sagan was a one time supporter of the nuclear winter scenario, and helater admitted to making some very basic mistakes. Shortly after the '91 Gulf War, when the fleeing Iraqi's set all those oil fields on fire, Sagan speculated that the smoke from those fires would cover the globe and that we were facing an ecological disaster of unprecedented proportions. And while there was a temperature drop in the immediate area of the fires (about 10-15 celsius), the smoke disappated within a few months, and there was no long term GLOBAl effect of the fires. As he put it, Science is always evolving, and what is true in theory today, can be proven untrue by experience tomorrow.
So, Nuclear winter might happen. It might not. It's one hypothesis I don't want to try and prove any time soon.
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 5:01am |
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Well, i just found something that might be interesting and related to this current topic.
The RAND corporation, a gov't think tank, recently put together a paper on nuclear terrorism, and in it, they have a scenario for a 10 kiloton ground burst at the Port of Long Beach. Here are a few of their conclusions:
60,000 dead from the inital blast (or within hours of the inital blast)
150,000 exposed to very high levels of radiation requiring immediate treatment.
The blast wave and ensuing fires would destroy much of the infrastructure, and all ships in the ports at Long Beach and Los Angeles.
6 million people trying to evac out of the area.
An area of 500 square kilometers will be contaminated, necessitating the evac of an additional 3 million more.
The refineries in Long Beach are reponsible for 1/3 of the gasoline production west of the rockies. With those gone in the blast, gas will be in very short supply.
Initial damage estimated at $1 trillion.
And this is just 1 (ONE!) small nuke of 10 kilotons. The warheads on the SS-24 missiles i mentioned a few posts ago are 550 kiloton yields.
I think this puts it into perspective.
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emmajones
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 6:55am |
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Ouch. That does put it into perspective. I would like to think that it would never happen, but it seems to be almost inevitable at some point in time.
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 10:36am |
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I've been watching since the beginning. At first, I thought how dumb can these people be but after thinking about it for a while now, I think it is pretty realistic. Because of this forum, we all have such a head start on the average person. We have come to the realization that terrible things can happen. We are preparing for those possibilities. Our way of thinking has changed, at least mine has. I look at every day things in a different way now. Just think how many threads and posts we have about trying to get friends and relatives on board with this. Those people that are being portrayed on the program are no different that most of us were before we 'saw the light'. The way they have already wasted many of their precious resources is, to me, typical of what would happen. The IRS lady is still in denial. Some are finally starting to get it that life as they knew it is over. Some are still hanging on. The woman who owns the store doesn't get it because running that store was all she knew and can't get beyond it. They couldn't get the gas because no one knew how, it wasn't because they didn't have the resources to get it. I look forward to watching to see how many more of them will start to come around. Leaders are emerging - both good and bad.
GG
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nwprepper
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 11:11am |
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emmajones - they are AWESOME - we never called them "boiled cookies growing up though, we called them "unbaked cookies":
Here's the link: Boiled Cookies Recipe |
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emmajones
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 11:36am |
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Thanks, NW, I will give them a try. And stock up on the ingrediants!
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 8:53pm |
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I agree that the people in the town are coming to realize slowly what they are going to be up against and I think that is very realistic. Even as much as I have learned and have done here, I think something like a major nuclear strike, I would be in shock for a while. The kids get that the phones are useless, but people rely on plastic and dont get that it means nothing, the lady who runs the store, is having a hard time comprehending giving when she has always sold. I think that people will be on the best behavior at first, it is the shortages and the hardships that will foster fear of the unknown and that will bring out the bad charecteristics. |
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Posted: October 27 2006 at 10:02pm |
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Thanks for the info FictionWriter.
wikipedia...
up to 70% of the ozone layer might be destroyed... We couldn't survive that . :(
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ps...I like the cookie texture with reg oats.
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Doubting Thomas
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Posted: October 28 2006 at 12:25pm |
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Does Jericho have a church?
I've been watching "Jericho" and I find the behaviour of the characters surreal. It reminds me of the movie "The Others". With this in mind, I suspect everyone living in Jericho is a ghost. Further, since Jericho (biblically) is a cursed city, I suspect they were left out or the Rapture which would have carried the Christians to heaven after Jerusalem was destroyed in the first wave of nuclear bombardment, orchestrated by the neocons. The attack on America is secondary and merely part of Armaggedon. The secretive black guy is a neo-con agent, left behind because he wasn't a true believer, and to facilitate the exposition of back plot not yet reveiled by the writers. That's right I've got too much free time. LOL Cheers, DT |
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Posted: October 28 2006 at 5:59pm |
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OK, I've got a question. I could ask my husband but I'm too embarrassed to as he'd be exclaiming, "Great, now you've got another thing you're worrying about, nuclear war?" ha, ha. He's a believer in prepping but I think I've pushed his limit.
So here's my question: In "Alas, Babylon" they'd mentioned that you can't drink any milk that isn't already canned. No fresh milk because the cows are eating the grass that has the fallout and it is captured in the milk. Only canned milk for kids, and for nursing mothers there was a concern on that too as they couldn't consume something like lettuce as the fallout would be passed on in breast milk. I'm assuming that was accurate info when that book was written, is it still true for today?
And in "Alas, Babylon," why exactly is it that metal in the book wasn't allowed to be taken out of a fallout area because of the risk of radiation poisoning from it (remember the dude that took all the jewelry and everyone that touched it died) but that you can eat food in cans? I don't get that. Can anyone explain this to me so I don't have to get my DH worried that I'm on a new tangent? :-)
I think that this Jericho movie is a lot like the book, "Alas..." and I think that the lesson I'm learning from this as a family is that people aren't culturally programmed in this country to accept a sudden change in their life... they just sort of will continue on, on autopilot, thinking that night that things will be better in the morning, thinking that morning that maybe things will be better by that night. I think that our small towns might reflect what we're watching on this show, but in the cities, I think it will be much more chaos, less communication and cooperation and a lot more killing.
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PATB
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Posted: October 29 2006 at 11:54am |
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nwprepper: thank you so much for that cookie rec'p. I lost it over 25 yrs ago and kept looking ever since! It is a great treat and healthy. My boys went crazy over it. Thanks again. |
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Pat
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:21am |
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4abbie&maddie,
Yep, radioactive fallout will get into the food chain. The amount will vary depending on whether the initial explosions were air or ground bursts, and on the weather patterns as to where the fallout will fall. A ground burst will kick up a lot more dirt and dust into the atmosphere, not sure of the comparison ration between one and the other, but it is a significant amount.
So, let's say for the sake of arguement that it was a ground burst, and that the explosion picked up the equivalent of 2 inches of topsoil from a one mile radius at ground zero. All that soild is severely contaminated. A good chunk of it will fall back to the ground at the site of the explosion, but another good portion of it could conceivably come down miles away. In the scenaio done by the RAND corporation, an area of 500 square kilometers would be contaminated by a 10 kiloton ground burst.
The radioactive elements are heavy. They will fall to the ground in rain or snow. Strontium, Cesium, Plutonium, and Americium; these are some of the major fallout products of a nuclear explosion. The ability of these particles to bind themselves to the soil depends on the type of soil conditions, whether loam or clay or whatever, and the pH level of the soil. The particles get in there and when something is planted those particles migrate into the crop.
In the case of cows, a cow could be exposed to a significant amount of radioactivity through the consumption of contaminated grains or greens, BUT, the cow will retain a large portion of those contaminants and not pass them on in milk. Eating the cow, on the other hand, i would not recommend.
Animals exposed to high levels of radiation would experience significant problems. Lets call the exposed animals the 'zero generation'. Zero generation would experience a multitude of problems from cancer to outright death, stunted growth, or the inability to reproduce. BUT, first generation animals, born from Zero generation survivors would be fairly normal. Latter generations would be entirely normal. The mutations experienced by the Zero Generation would not pass on to later generations.
25 years ago, most of this would have been entirely speculative, based on what we, as a soceity, had learned from all those nuclear tests out in the desert. Then Chernobyl happened. Suddenly, it's not speculation.
I encourage you to read up on Chernobyl and the immediate after effects due to the radiation released. It is certainly informative.
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:29am |
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Radioactive fallout has entered the food chain all over the world, from the above ground test from the 40's through the 70's. I have read that even today, without Chernobyl, it can be measured.
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lkay
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 7:18am |
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This is a website about Chernobyl that was posted earlier somewhere here. I had no idea. It's captivating and haunting. Lots of information, but the pictures - I don't think I'll be forgetting them for a very long time.
http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter1.html Hubby and I have watched all the shows so far on the computer. 4abbie&maddie - I know what you mean about giving your husband ideas that you are worried about something else. Mine seems interested in the show, so atleast maybe we are picking up a few lessons for survival in general. He believes in preparing, just thinks I worry about it way to much. He's right. |
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Dark Wombat
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 7:31am |
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As a longtime neo-con, I would just like to disavow any plans on my part to destroy Jerusalem. :D
Redmond, Washington? Maaaaaybe. But not Jerusalem. :D
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"Do not let your hearts be troubled. You believe in God, believe also in Me." --The words of Christ, John 14:1
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Chloe
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 8:05am |
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My mother made a similiar no bake cookie recipe except it did not contain peanut butter. She called them "haystacks".
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emmajones
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 4:48pm |
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These cookies are really good. Thanks, NW. I'd been trying to think of a nutritious snack food that required little cooking and these are perfect.
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nwprepper
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:09pm |
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I'm so glad you like this recipe. It
has brought me untold hours of chocolate comfort over the years - ha!
They are best still a little warm & gooey. mmmmmm
Hubby and I stocked up on a year's supply of nobake cookie ingredients yesterday. I feel much better now. (illusion of control bolstered - contented sigh) I got him to start watching Jericho to help him start thinking outside the box - just because you flip the switch, doesn't mean the lights will ALWAYS go on. Just because you turn on the water faucet, doesn't mean water will ALWAYS come out. As a kid my family "camped" and lived without running water and electricity for 5 mos out of the year 'till I was 18. This experience came in handy - in the early 90's shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union I moved to Siberia for a year and a half with 5 other "Typical Americans" - routine power outages, food shortages, no TP, water turned off for a week at a time, etc. I was surprised at how grumpy we Americans got when things we take for granted were taken away. It's so strange how fragile we are mentally (myself included) I'm thankful for my childhood experience living without water & power because it wasn't as big a problem for me as it was for the others in my group. People can get really stressed out by this kind of thing. Reeeeally cranky. Makes me wonder how my little suburban town will fare... Another thing that really shook me up living there was the lack of personal safety. Here in the US I just take for granted that, for the most part, my personal and property rights are respected. Yes we have crime, but it's not a complete free-for-all here. Culture shock set in for me when I found that ANYONE could do ANYTHING ANYTIME and there were basically NO CONSEQUENCES. The relative chaos freaked me out. I'm still a little tweaky from it. The locals talked a lot about needing a "strong leader" who would restore "order". The whole experience was very surreal and eye opening but it really messed with my head... Let's think about ways we can help each other prepare mentally & emotionally for what's coming when TSHTF... Gotta go make nobake cookies - comfort in a pan - ha! |
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nwprepper
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:10pm |
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sorry, didn't realize that was so long and in a strange font. still learning...
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:25pm |
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Ok...Ok.....you guys have made me hungry now. My plans are......
1.Tuesday buy ingredients for cookies.
2. Wensday while "Jericho" is on devour cookies.
3.Thursday feel guilty.
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nwprepper
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:41pm |
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Don't forget the hot cocoa...
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Posted: October 30 2006 at 5:43pm |
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Cracking open a box as we speak
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Posted: October 31 2006 at 5:29pm |
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I guess if I have to ask, i will...What's a Neo-Con?
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Posted: October 31 2006 at 8:49pm |
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DON'T DRINK OF IODINE!
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Posted: November 01 2006 at 4:38pm |
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T-22 minutes to Jericho
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Posted: November 01 2006 at 4:40pm |
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Mach, thanks for that reminder, I'm sitting here on my computer oblivious to the world on TV and would have completely forgotten about it! I would have been a VERY unhappy camper, so thanks!!!
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: November 01 2006 at 4:48pm |
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Time to get my popcorn, blanket and get ready for Jericho. I really like it then Lost is after...:O) |
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Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/ |
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FictionWriter wrote: