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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Life Expectancy

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Life Expectancy
    Posted: February 03 2016 at 2:41am
It is still early days to get statistics. This BBC article  has the following figures:  3670 suspected cases of microcephaly of which 1 111 tested giving 404 positive and 709 negative results.  That is 36% positive result from those tested. 

The article talks of 76 suspected deaths.   Depending how this figure is combined with those above I get an infant fatality rate of between 2% and 18% (ie I don't really have a clue as to how all the figures go together).  The death rate is high but it seems that most children affected by Vika caused microcephaly will be  born live.

However, it seems that they have a much reduced life expectancy which significantly depends on the level of care as one of the factors.

Quote Children who are diagnosed with microcephaly have a lowered life expectancy rate. Due to the presence of a close co-relation between the prognosis and life expectancy of microcephaly, a poor prognosis indicates reduced life expectancy. A few doctors are of the opinion that with luck, microcephaly patients can potentially live for 20 to 35 years. Also, the life expectancy can be significantly increased with the right kind of support from doctors, family, society, etc.

It seems that there will be lots of pain and heart ache from this virus
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Albert View Drop Down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2016 at 4:14am
Good job Edwin, and that's correct.  The fatality rate is around 2%.  I've been reading the same thing. Health officials are not talk about any of this, and I was not aware of the short life expectancy, but I was
about the death rate.  This is really a very nasty disease for a baby.   In my view, microcephaly is as bad a death in some cases.  The baby severe brain damage, the families devastated, etc..


Five things you need to know about Zika

By Sandee LaMotte, CNN

Updated 12:32 AM ET, Wed February 3, 2016

(CNN)A relatively new mosquito-borne virus is prompting worldwide concern because of an alarming connection to a neurological birth disorder and the rapid spread of the virus across the globe.

World Health Organization Director-General Margaret Chan called it an "extraordinary event" Monday in declaring a public health emergency.

"I am now declaring that the recent cluster of microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities reported in Latin America following a similar cluster in French Polynesia in 2014 constitutes a public health emergency of international concern," she said.

The Zika virus, transmitted by the aggressive Aedes aegypti mosquito, has now spread to at least 24 countries. WHO estimates 3 million to 4 million people across the Americas will be infected with the virus in the next year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning pregnant women against travel to those areas; health officials in several of those countries are telling female citizens to avoid becoming pregnant, in some cases for up to two years.

"As long as the mosquito keeps reproducing, each and every one of us is losing the battle against the mosquito," Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said on Friday. "We have to mobilize so we do not lose this battle."

The U.S. Defense Department is offering voluntary relocation to pregnant employees and their beneficiaries who are stationed in affected areas.

"That's a pandemic in progress," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health. "It isn't as if it's turning around and dying out, it's getting worse and worse as the days go by.".

Since November, Brazil has seen 404 confirmed cases of microcephaly in newborns. Seventeen of those cases have a confirmed link to the Zika virus. To put that in perspective, there were only 146 cases in 2014. So far, 15 babies have died from the condition; five of the death linked to Zika. An additional 56 deaths are under investigation and authorities continue to investigate 3,670 suspected cases.

Other Latin American countries are now seeing cases in newborns as well. On Saturday Colombia reported over 2,000 pregnant women have tested positive for the virus while in the United States one Hawaiian baby was born with microcephaly linked to the Zika virus after his mother returned from Brazil. Several states have confirmed the virus in individuals who traveled to areas where the virus is circulating, including Illinois, where health officials are monitoring two infected pregnant women.
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Albert View Drop Down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2016 at 4:16am
I also agree with Fauci that this is a pandemic, given the geographical spread, and the rapid spread via human sexual  transmission and by mosquito.   And with a death rate of 2%, I believe this has met all criteria for declaring a pandemic.   I'm with Faucie on that.
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