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More Nasty Weather on the Way

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 08 2019 at 3:14pm
South-central US at risk for severe weather outbreak, tornadoes Saturday

Alex Sosnowsky


An outbreak of severe thunderstorms that includes the likelihood of a few tornadoes will focus on the the Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Saturday afternoon and evening.

AccuWeather meteorologists have been concerned for an outbreak of severe weather over the south-central United States since the start of the week and now that concern is on the doorstep this weekend.

People are encouraged to closely monitor this situation in the severe weather threat area. Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert to the latest forecast and severe weather watches and warnings.

"This is likely to be a kitchen sink severe weather situation where the storms will be capable of bringing everything from frequent lightning strikes and brief strong wind gusts to flash flooding, large hail and even a tornado," according to AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Ali Davis.

Severe Timing 3 pm


"We believe there will be a few tornadoes and of these a couple may become strong," Ali said.

The time of the year, location and anticipated weather conditions with surging warm, moist air and strengthening winds aloft are some of the key ingredients that are likely to contribute to isolated tornado and highly localized strong tornado formation.

"The first big storms can erupt any time from late Friday night to Saturday morning from northeastern Texas to eastern Oklahoma," Ali said.

During Saturday midday to Saturday evening, severe thunderstorms are likely to extend from central Louisiana, northward to eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, central Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, western and central Tennessee and central and northern Mississippi.

"We suspect most of the storms will congeal into a solid swath of squall line that advances eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley during Saturday afternoon and evening," Ali said.

"However, there will be some isolated severe thunderstorms that occur ahead of this main line," Ali said.

It is in these leading, isolated severe thunderstorms where the greatest risk for a small number of strong tornadoes exists although there can still be brief spin-up tornadoes along the main squall line.

The risk of severe weather and tornadoes will extend after dark on Saturday, which may add to the danger.

In addition to closely monitoring the severe weather situation by all means possible, it is essential that residents and visitors to the area have a plan of action in place ahead of severe weather warnings.

Short of an outbreak of tornadoes, it only takes a single tornado to rip a path of destruction and cause fatalities in populated areas.

Motorists traveling on area interstate highways should be especially aware of their surroundings. It is possible that some of the violent straight-line winds and tornadoes capable of tossing vehicles may be concealed by heavy rain.

The following major highways will be in the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk zone at some point on Saturday: I-20, I-30, I-40, I-44, I-55, I-64, I-65, I-69, I-70, I-115, I-530 and I-540.

Major cities within the severe weather threat area include Little Rock, Arkansas; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Shreveport, Louisiana; Topeka, Kansas; St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield and Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Greenville, Jackson and Tupelo, Mississippi; Cairo, Illinois; Evansville, Indiana; Louisville and Paducah, Kentucky.

As Saturday evening progresses, the storms will push eastward across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee and into northern and central Alabama. Many storms that enter these areas early on can still be severe.

By Sunday, the thunderstorms are expected to be past their peak intensity as they enter the Southeastern states.

Sunday SE 3 pm


However, a broken line of heavy, gusty thunderstorms is expected to re-fire somewhat and/or advance in this region including in communities that were devastated by tornadoes a week ago.

The storms are forecast to extend from southeastern Louisiana to central and eastern North Carolina and part of southeastern Virginia.

The main threats from the storms will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and isolated flash flooding.

As is often the case during March, the next severe weather threat is on the horizon.

During early next week, the risk from heavy to severe thunderstorms will target portions of the southern and central Plains.

Severe Next Tuesday Wednesday


This time, the first storms may erupt in areas of building drought over the High Plains of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Source: AccuWeather   https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/south-central-us-at-risk-for-severe-weather-outbreak-tornadoes-saturday/70007642
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2019 at 11:00pm
This is normal weather here this time of year! January through March is tornado season in what we call Dixie alley! That's Arkansas, Louisiana East through the deep South. Southern tornado alley, the southern central plains, Texas to Nebraska from April through May and late May through July the northern plains clear up to southern Canada! Very scary if you're not used to them but no big deal if you grew up with them! I'll take tornadoes over earthquakes or hurricanes any day!   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2019 at 8:59pm
We are supposed to get bad storms the next 2 days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2019 at 3:20am
MrMBB333 giving a good report on recent extreme (world) weather;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kW0BqLfSDkE

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/severe/news/2019-04-26-severe-thunderstorms-heavy-rain-flooding-tornadoes-hail-wind-plains (US)

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/hurricane/news/2019-04-25-strange-tropical-cyclone-places-recently
http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/state-of-emergency-for-canada-with-some.html

DJ-From extreme drought to extreme flooding, extreme cold to extreme hot.
There is already a pattern for 2019. Extreme-most climate change related-weather is effecting food production and logistics.

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/trees-dying-by-million-in-us-and-now.html, http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/vile-vampire-bugs-triatoma-sanguisuga.html and http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/the-rash-can-be-severe-and-last-for.html are some of the effects bio-sphere-wise.

Some animals go extinct, other grow out of control-most in the wrong places at the wrong time. This will effect human health. Climate change may play some role in the US measles-explosion. Cyclone "Kenneth" stayed south of the Tanzania-border and still quite a distance from the Ebola-area in Congo.

Working with "average long term effects" can give a false sense of safity. It is the extremes that kill. Chances for extreme events increase strongly.

(Indirect effects of climate change could be earthquakes/collapse of volcano's. tsunami's. They can influence each other. Hurricanes may cause earthquakes. Major tsunami's can cause/make stronger storms.
Most data we have on extreme events goes-at best-a few hundred years back in time. This extreme climate change events do increase-as an example-risks for a M10+ earthquake (simply by decreasing the pressure of ice and snow in the Antarctic, Greenland, Himalaya's). In a very worst case scenario "we" as humans do not have to 2100, maybe not even 2026.

You can not "work" with the most "worst case scenario's"-but the chances of avoiding these scenario's is getting smaller each day.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 02 2019 at 9:51am
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2019 at 9:57pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqPWz4ll8Ss MrMBB discussing several floods in 2019. He relates it to increased UV. Climate change discussion (let alone realism) is getting impossible due to "politics".

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Damage-Widespread-Fanis-Death-Toll-Remarkably-Low-Thus-Far?cm_ven=cat6-widget

US; https://www.wunderground.com/news/forecast/regional/news/2019-05-03-heavy-rain-flooding-thunderstorms-central-us-plains-midwest-early and https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/weather/news/2019-05-02-wildfire-concern-west-summer-wet-pattern-ends-california

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

DJ-There has been discussion on adding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#%22Category_6%22 a category 6 to the saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

With 93% of increased heat going into the ocean https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva came with the idea of a "Never Ending El-Nino" (NEEN).

Lets go a bit further in this horror story. "Kenneth" reached the Mocambique-Tanzania-border in SE Africa. Never earlier did get such a strong storm that close to south of the equator. Can a new hurricane reach the ebola-area in Congo ?

One step further; a cat 8 hurricane spanning all of an ocean. A cat 10 hurricane-global lasting months.........

Already "extreme weather" is effecting food production in a dramatic way. But starvation may not be the major killer for humanity.

With so much heat in the oceans more hurricanes may be expected this year. Hurricanes can strenghten eachother-transfer energy. Last years we did see sometimes up to 5 "systems" in a line on the ocean.

Multiple hurricanes could become one very large hurricane. Even present hurricanes-reaching Greenland or Antarctica can cause major (land-)ice melt creating very strong feedbacks (more open water/land-less reflection of sun energy, more methane, water warming up much faster than ice-and expanding).

We "may go" in one big deluge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_myth. Die in a never ending storm wich will transfer this planet into Venus-state-with temperatures going up-sealevels rising, boiling over....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2019 at 2:57am
DJ-Let me elaborate a little further on my last post.

-In a "best scenario" nature is that strong it will undo the harm humans caused. Ice will move from Greenland and Antarctica over the (Ant)Arctic ocean and restore some balance. Melting ice will cool the seawater.

I think this is a very optimistic scenario. Eventhough I also believe science does not yet fully understand climate change.

Still with what we do know there is every reason for urgent action. And since politics is not doing a good enough job it is up to the people.

Less meat consumption, less car use, higher energy-efficiency would decrease climate"stress" and increase our health.

In the "worst case scenario"-"super-super-storms" climate change itself goes exponential. In that scenario any action is much to late much to little. Fast melting of land-ice will cause "seismic stress" with a sharp increase of earthquakes.

The "elasticity" of landmass would mean that when the 3 kilometer thick ice-cover is gone the landmass would rise 1 km. (I do think that the Atlantic ridge-in the middle of the Atlantic ocean-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_Ridge is already becoming more active. The longer the ridge the stronger the potential for a major earthquake. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-megaquakes-really-happen-a-magnitude-10-or-larger?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products There is an upper limit for earthquakes-I do not agree with the idea of M9.5 being the strongest possible quake.)

Another point is; drought is related with wildfires, major storms often bring a lot of rain or snow. A major wildfire in combination with a major-dry-storm would make such a fire uncontroleble. We have had several combinations already (California, France etc.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestorm The risks for "very major wildfires" is also on the rise. Such a major fire would contribute further to climate change. (Increase heat, dark surface, CO2 etc) A firestorm can suck away air from its surroundings. (In W.W.2 sometimes people died in shelters due to lack of air. Rescuers were confronted sometimes with hundreds of intact dead persons in an intact shelter. The air was taken up by the fire with such speed you had "fire-tornadoes". )
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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