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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Mutated H7N9 now more infectious to humans

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 23 2017 at 5:33am
(Avian flu) Mutated virus, more dangerous to humans, detected

A research team from the University of Hong Kong has identified a mutation in the H7N9 virus, which may explain why there has been a major outbreak of the avian flu strain on the mainland since autumn last year.
More than 500 people have been infected with the bird flu virus since then. More than a fifth of them have died.
One of the team's key investigators, Professor Chen Honglin, said the mutation has made the H7N9 virus much more infectious to humans.
Chen said the mutation emerged as early as 2000. He said by 2012 or 2013, almost all H9N2 virus carried this mutation. -RTHK

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news.php?id=86494


Comment:  It seems that this thing is a hair away from going pandemic.  We will be lucky if it doesn't within the next 12 months.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2017 at 10:02am
Of note is the otherwise slightly decreased mortality rate. It could be an artifact, but with increased cases and an apparently lower mortality rate that would seem to indicate attenuation and therefore host adaption. But, hey, who knows. 

Also, this is only increasing the rate at which it infects humans from, presumably, the infected avian hosts. A hair away from a pandemic, in my eyes, is the emergence of human-to-human transmission. There are some cases where this might have happened, but we aren't seeing a lot of that just yet. This is bad news, since it will increase the chance for such mutations to arise, but it's still a step or so away from sustained human-to-human.

Winter is coming to a close. Hopefully some of these strains die with it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2017 at 12:31pm
That does tend to be a pattern with viruses like influenza - a trade of between it's ability to better infect a new host, and kill it. How much H7N9 might drop it's CFR is anyone's guess if it did go efficiently H2H, but it's starting with the bar set pretty high right now.

We're fortunate that it seems to be geographically stuck right now, because things are going to start getting chilly in the southern hemisphere soon.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2017 at 1:20am
For years people have speculated that there is a relationship between mortality rate and transmission, and as the mortality rate decreases, the better chance of increased transmission as is begins to mutate.  That has always been a question mark for me, and the only thing people had to go on was using H5N1 as the model with an extremely high mortality rate.  This may not be the case as we are seeing the mortality rate increase with H7N9 along with the transmission.   Hopefully we don't find out, but at this rate, as the mortality increases, so is the transmission.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2017 at 11:48pm
Great discussion!  The surface receptors of strictly avian influenza like H5N1 and H7N9 must acquire the ability to attach to human sites efficiently, which is why it takes time for these viruses to evolve. 

I've always been a skeptic of H2H transmission with H5N1, and believed that cases occurred during the animal husbandry of keeping fowl, where cases were likely to really inhale a very high infectious dose deep into the lungs (from cleaning cages, disposing of dead birds etc.) 

It seems likely to me that, as the strictly avian viruses mutate to cause human illness more easily, they may also lose some of the traits that result in high morbidity and mortality in human hosts.  I can't find a good reference for this, but it does seem to hold true.  

I read papers like this late at night to help fall asleep!!  This has many answers to your questions: 


Off to bed now!  Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2017 at 3:51am
It appears that various organizations believe an H7N9 pandemic is imminent.  This is not looking good.  My guess would be 1 - 2 years with H7N9 on the outside, or never.   This one is not looking good.

Stronger Precautions Urged for Bird Flu

CHINA - Two international organizations have stressed the high possibility of human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 virus, which saw the biggest outbreak in China over the past winter since first being reported in China in 2013.

The organizations urged the Chinese government to take more precautionary measures to prevent a possible bird flu epidemic.

"Experts agree that it is not a question of if, but when the virus will adapt in ways that facilitate efficient, sustained human-to-human transmission," according to a joint statement on Thursday from the World Health Organization and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/38363/stronger-precautions-urged-for-bird-flu/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2017 at 10:42am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

"Experts agree that it is not a question of if, but when the virus will adapt in ways that facilitate efficient, sustained human-to-human transmission," according to a joint statement on Thursday from the World Health Organization and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/38363/stronger-precautions-urged-for-bird-flu/



That is a really disconcerting statement, given how emphatic it is in predicting H2H transmission. To see one of those agencies come out and issue a warning like this is pretty significant - that they're both in agreement is very worrying.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2017 at 1:52am
Not good news at all.  This bug is definitely rapidly changing.  You may have called it JD, on the 100th anniversary since 1918.  Of course it probably now also has the capability of mixing much easier with h1n1, for the 1918 replay.   Or maybe it will just be a flat h7n9 pandemic, who knows, but this pattern is getting concerning - and now a joint statement to prepare for sustained human transmission?  

The transmission is increasing along with the mortality rate.  The mutation models vs. ease of transmission apparently were not correct over the years.  The 1918 flu also mutated to a more severe form. 

I believe the 1918 pandemic flu began in May?  

On another note, the worst news is that Tamiflu and anti-virals are going to be useless with this one. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2017 at 2:34am
Stronger precautions are urged for bird flu


By Wang Xiaodong | China Daily USA | Updated: 2017-03-24 07:31

Two international organizations have stressed the high possibility of human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 virus, which saw the biggest outbreak in China over the past winter since first being reported in China in 2013.

The organizations urged the Chinese government to take more precautionary measures to prevent a possible bird flu epidemic.

"Experts agree that it is not a question of if, but when the virus will adapt in ways that facilitate efficient, sustained human-to-human transmission," according to a joint statement on Thursday from the World Health Organization and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

There was no evidence of sustained human transmission of the virus, but H7N9 has continued to change, the statement said.

Researchers recently identified two separate genetic lineages of H7N9, adding complications to the making of candidate virus vaccines, the first step in developing vaccines for birds and humans, it said.

The University of Hong Kong said on Wednesday that its researchers had identified a mutation in H7N9 avian flu that can enhance its ability to infect humans.

In February, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said H7N9 had mutated to a new strain in South China, which did not affect the virus's ability to spread between humans but made it more dangerous among poultry.

China reported 352 human cases of H7N9 in the first two months of the year, resulting in 140 deaths, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

"We have a short window of time - before the next seasonal outbreak in winter - to get ahead of the virus and prevent a SARS-type event," the joint WHO-UNFAO statement said, adding that during this short window, policymakers need to have immediate intervention steps ready to control the virus.

"This may involve a mix of market closures and poultry vaccinations as a requirement for market access," it said, adding that over 90 percent of reported cases involved individuals in direct contact with live poultry or a market selling live poultry.

Once a problem is identified, the intervention steps need to be fully implemented before the next seasonal peak, which is during the Chinese New Year holiday, it said.

Chinese authorities have taken measures since winter, such as closing live poultry markets, to control and prevent the virus.

Live poultry markets in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, were suspended for three weeks beginning March 17, according to the city's health commission.

In Anhui province, most cities and counties have closed live poultry markets since February, local media reported.

The WHO-UNFAO statement said China needs to intensify enforcement of the closure of live poultry markets to eliminate the threat.

Sporadic cases of bird flu may last until late April, according to the China CDC. Currently, there is no vaccine for the virus, but several Chinese companies have received approval from the China Food and Drug Administration for clinical trials of vaccines.

Premier Li Keqiang said in February that China will promote business models that feature large-scale farming, centralized slaughtering and cold-chain transportation, including the keeping and selling of poultry in chilled conditions, to prevent similar poultry-related disease outbreaks.

wangxiaodong@chinadaily.com.cn

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2017-03/24/content_28666643.htm


Comment:  A Sars-type event would indicate it's about to spread slowly via limited h2h transmission.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2017 at 10:05am
Please don't let me be right about this one Shocked

H1N1 first showed up in the early part of 1918 - possibly as early as January. I can only assume it survived the transition period between the first and second waves in the colder temperatures of the Southern Hemisphere's winter. Hopefully H7N9 will stay geographically pinned down in China and not head south as their flu season comes to an end.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2017 at 10:23am
There is a reason why first reports from U.S. Health Officials stated the latest mutations were not more infectious, until the Hong Kong researchers announced it.  The same reason why they can't determine if H7N9 is in fact resistant to antivirals.  Quite simply, China is not releasing samples, and they haven't since 2013.  The only info the world gets is spoon-fed information from China, and we all know how much they can be trusted.


There have also been reports that some of the viruses may no longer be susceptible to oseltamivir — sold as Tamiflu — and other flu drugs of the same class. There are few drugs that treat influenza, and if H7N9 became resistant to these drugs, it would be a highly unwelcome development. But the CDC’s Davis said so far it appears that the cases of resistance have involved hospitalized people who were taking the drugs for protracted periods.

Resistance can evolve during treatment, but resistance among viruses that haven’t yet been exposed to the drug would be more alarming, he and Jernigan said.

Scientists at the CDC would like to test virus samples from China to ensure that the flu drugs are still effective. But a disease diplomacy problem is getting in the way of that work.

While China has been reporting cases and sharing the genetic sequences of viruses, it has not shared actual virus samples with the United States since the early days of the H7N9 outbreak, Jernigan said.

Thanks to developments in synthetic biology, genetic sequences can be used to make sample viruses that can tell scientists a lot about how a virus behaves. Still, viral samples would be useful. “Synthetic biology is amazing. But it still takes time,” said Davis.

Jernigan said scientists at the China CDC collaborate openly with their international colleagues. But a green light to share viruses would need to come from other parts of the government. He said efforts are underway to try to open those doors.

https://www.statnews.com/2017/02/28/bird-flu-surge/


Comment:  Only response to this about China is, A**holes.  Excuse my French.


 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2017 at 5:23am
Honestly if China keeps stonewalling the CDC they need to simply make recombinants on their own. This is quite feasible, but perhaps a bit pricey--nothing the CDC can't handle. And of course China deserves an obligatory middle finger for witholding samples. It goes against standard scientific protocol and all logic. 

As far as mortality and transmission, I was a bit wrong when I remembered this paper in question, although it is with H7N1:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24696487

Verdict: Low sample size, but no apparent decrease in pathogenicity required for airborne Ferret-to-Ferret transmission. 

Thinking it over, I doubt we'd see attenuation in humans if we don't even have substantial H2H. We are probably just observing either strain differences or statistical artifacts. Neither of which is comforting since we're still looking at Smallpox-level mortality.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rishat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2017 at 4:12am
I have congenital and acquired immunity to influenza. I get infected like an ordinary person, but I get sick for 2-4 days or not at all. Age 39 years sex male I suggest to make a vaccine against the flu from my blood. But I suggest that the patient make a vaccine from the components of my blood. Namely from an immunoglobulin. Muslim. In the Holy Quran does not say that you can not make a vaccine from the blood of a Muslim in emergency situations. Allah Almighty will allow me to make the vaccine out of my blood. Muslim. 3 times a day I take taharat in cold tap water, and 2 times in icy water from the column, my feet once a day but in warm water, and this is micro hardening. Congenital immunity: I do not suffer from diabetes mellitus, other type of diabetes. I drink a lot of water. IC - Well, someone should get it to the lab, take a sample and run the sequence. Then he will know for sure. If there are antibodies in there - the world, you may need them.

And also who should get it in the laboratory work to take a sample and follow the sequence. Then he will know for sure. If antibodies are available in the world, they may be required. According to American doctors. HELP me to prove my immunity. I have only 4 years to live, I can die in a few hours. I have a disease of Olivia ponto cerebral degeneration with cerebellar atrophy. One of the manifestations of this disease is not controlled by the saliva, the discharge is due to this constantly pressurized with food intake, and when combined with non-diabetes by the end of the day the saliva becomes tight and I press when I sit quietly. This continues until I take a cure for not diabetes. And I also have a shaky gait and double vision in my eyes. So I can get under the car. But the state of health is constantly deteriorating. The Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and Almetyevsk doctors do not want to conduct home-based research, so I have to conduct them myself. I got sick with the flu: on Saturday the temperature was 37.2, on Sunday 37.3 there were no symptoms, I went to the mosque, on Monday the temperature was 36.6. And on Tuesday the complication of a severe runny nose began, the temperature went 37.3 to the mosque, a strong cough was added to the severe cold on Wednesday, 37 went to the mosque, the rhinitis passed on Thursday, there was only a mild cough. The temperature 37.5 stayed at home, and Friday was fresh as a cucumber. Before the mosque 150 meters on the street the temperature is from 0 to +5 degrees. Mom was scared that I had a flu 5 days with such a small temperature. On Thursday, they went to the hospital and prescribed medication. All charges against me are far-fetched. I only have immunity against the flu. Let me become the last human defense line against the flu. Immunity is proven through the Internet. Immunity is good who drinks water from 2 to 3 liters a day, and I drink from 3 to 5 liters a day. And plus this I do micro-hardening





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Rishat.   You have been doing this for 5 years here, and you have been advised that JD's blood is superior.    But at my age now, anything could be possible.  Who knows.  

Ришат. Вы делаете это в течение 5 лет здесь, и вам сообщили, что кровь JD выше. Но в моем возрасте теперь все возможно. Кто знает.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2017 at 3:08pm
The very mention of my blood can kill the influenza virus. Beat that.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2017 at 9:49pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

The very mention of my blood can kill the influenza virus. Beat that.


I'm sold!  Send me as much as you can, as quickly as possible, JD!  LOL
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lol.

Rishat, you can be backup and 2nd inline after JD.  Tongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 05 2017 at 7:02am
Sitting time bomb.  Seems like h7n9 will lead to the next pandemic.  The question is, when? A year maybe.  Who knows.   Each winter this one keeps mutating and not many more step until human adaptation, it would seem.


Scary Bird Flu Mutations Could Lead to Worst Pandemic in History


Leading scientists in the field of deadly flu epidemics are worried about what could be the granddaddy of them all, and say it could be right around the corner. 

They're talking about the bird flu, also known as H7N9. Experts say it could be as bad as, or even more severe, than the worst global pandemic in recorded history. That was the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million people. That flu also originated in birds.

Alarms began sounding in the medical research community when scientists observed the bird flu was rapidly mutating and killing chickens in China. That's scary because, until now, when chickens got the bird flu it was so mild, the chickens generally did not die from it. Now, however, the virus is far stronger and deadlier. Not only are chickens dying, they're dying fast, sometimes in just one day, and they're spreading it to other fowl. 

The bird flu outbreak among chickens is ominous for humans. 

"It makes us queasy," former global director of the World Health Organization's Influenza Program, Keiji Fukuda, told NPR, "Because it's a very visible way to see these viruses as restless. Some of these changes are dead-end, but some are not. And this genetic mutation is not. It's becoming more lethal for poultry. For people? We're not sure."

Oftentimes flu viruses that circulate among animals are passed to people. That's already happening in China with the H7N9 bird flu strain. When people catch the bird flu from chickens, about a third of the humans die. It's already killed nearly 200 people this flu season (September to March). That's more deaths than in any single season since when it was first discovered in humans four years ago. 

When it comes to containing flu outbreaks, the smartest virologists in the world are stumped by this one. Guan Yi who was instrumental in minimizing the Swine flu and SARS is pessimistic about this aggressive bird flu, mainly because it is changing so fast. "We're trying our best, but we still can't control this virus," He said, "It's too late for us to eradicate it."

http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/health/2017/april/Scary-Bird-Flu-Mutations-Could-Lead-to-Worst-Pandemic-in-History

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2017 at 6:42am
Originally posted by Rishat Rishat wrote:

В статье массовое производство иммуноглобулина возможно производство вакцины из крови

К счастью, никто не сделает из вашей крови вакцину моего друга. Никто не поверит, и этого не произойдет. Еще слишком рано делать вакцину до тех пор, пока она не мутируется. Может быть, вы останетесь единственным, кто выживет после следующей пандемии.   Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2017 at 7:53am
Originally posted by Rishat Rishat wrote:

I got sick with the flu: on Saturday the temperature was 37.2, on Sunday 37.3 there were no symptoms, I went to the mosque, on Monday the temperature was 36.6. And on Tuesday the complication of a severe runny nose began, the temperature went 37.3 to the mosque, a strong cough was added to the severe cold on Wednesday, 37 went to the mosque, the rhinitis passed on Thursday, there was only a mild cough. The temperature 37.5 stayed at home, and Friday was fresh as a cucumber.


You had flu-like symptoms and a low grade fever that persisted for almost a week? That's not super immunity - that's exactly what happens when the rest of us get sick. Sorry Rishat, but you're no different from the rest of us.

У вас были симптомы гриппа и низкая лихорадка, которые сохранялись почти неделю? Это не супер иммунитет - это именно то, что происходит, когда все остальные болеют. Прости, Ришат, но ты ничем не отличаешься от остальных.


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