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My fear when Mr. Trump takes the Oath of Office...
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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    Posted: November 16 2016 at 5:17pm
Inevitably, foreign powers "test" the new Chief Executive to see what his response will be.  

A classic example was the downing of a sophisticated US spy plane by China when George W. Bush was in office for only ten weeks in 2001:


Considering Russia's military buildup on its European border, I expect to either see a Russian military invasion of NATO countries in the Baltic, or a full-blown invasion of Ukraine, within weeks of the Trump inauguration: 


Trump will be clueless, and Putin knows this...the security establishment is shunning the Trump transition team, and key members have resigned.  We have no clue who the Sec. Defense is likely to be, but I doubt that it will be anyone impressive or intimidating to Putin. 


Scenarios could include Trump's acquiescence to Russia, or over-reaction (possibly involving nuclear strikes).  In any event, I wouldn't blame Putin for being militarily aggressive, it would be a historic opportunity to strike a blow at the heart of NATO. 

Not to mention what China, North Korea, Iran or other state actors might do.   I could also see a major cyberattack on the US cyber infrastructure. 

This is a good read on some of the possible scenarios and reasons for state actors to do something drastic:


Now would be a good time to check your supplies and preparations.  

Be safe, Chuck
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NSA chief: 'Nation state' intervened in presidential election 'to achieve a specific effect'

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...pecific-effect

" [Deputy Editor-in-Chief Rebecca] Blumenstein also asked Rogers about WikiLeaks, and the slow and steady leak of emails stolen from Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta's gmail account. "There shouldn't be any doubts in anybody's mind: This was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily," Rogers said. "This was a conscious effort by a nation state to attempt to achieve a specific effect."

That nation state is clearly Russia."


there's an increasing amount of evidence that Putin prefers Trump
why ?
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You're worried about a Russia invasion? The invasion has already begun and it isn't Russia. It's the Muslim immigrants flooding into Europe and they're coming from all over the middle east, not just Syria!

3/4ths of these immigrants are young males and in some camps the percentage is even higher. This is not the makeup of Syria.

Who cares about Ukraine when all of Europe is going down right now.
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Originally posted by Satori Satori wrote:

NSA chief: 'Nation state' intervened in presidential election 'to achieve a specific effect'

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...pecific-effect

" [Deputy Editor-in-Chief Rebecca] Blumenstein also asked Rogers about WikiLeaks, and the slow and steady leak of emails stolen from Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta's gmail account. "There shouldn't be any doubts in anybody's mind: This was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily," Rogers said. "This was a conscious effort by a nation state to attempt to achieve a specific effect."

That nation state is clearly Russia."


there's an increasing amount of evidence that Putin prefers Trump
why ?

Thanks, good information! 

I found this a few days ago, and haven't heard much from other sources:
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Does anyone think Mrs Trump is a Soviet mole ,Putin's honeypot in the white house? Talk about conspiracy theories....lol
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Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Does anyone think Mrs Trump is a Soviet mole ,Putin's honeypot in the white house? Talk about conspiracy theories....lol

That thought actually crossed my mind.  


He suggested a sharper focus on fighting Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria, rather than on ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “My attitude was you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting ISIS, and you have to get rid of ISIS. Russia is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have Iran, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria. . . . Now we’re backing rebels against Syria, and we have no idea who these people are.” If the U.S. attacks Mr. Assad, Mr. Trump said, “we end up fighting Russia, fighting Syria.”


A careful reading of the logic behind this policy is that President-elect Trump accepts that American foreign policy should be guided by Russia. According to Trump, if Russia has an interest and military presence in a region, the United States needs to align with Russian interests or “we end up fighting Russia.” 


Later that day, after Trump talked to Putin, the Kremlin issued a statement welcoming a “dialogue of partnership with the new administration.”
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well while trump was saying the Election was rigged , 

was he telling the truth?????????

called hiding in "PLAIN SIGHT "!!!!!!!!

remember Edward Snowden!!!!!!!!!
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Speculation serves no useful purpose.
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Speculation serves no useful purpose.

it does serve a purpose
it gets people thinking
and that gets people digging
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Originally posted by Crabby Crabby wrote:

Speculation serves no useful purpose.

In intelligence/national security, we call this "visioning." 

More interesting background information:
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For what it is worth, here is the root of my "visioning".

In a sociology experiment, performed by my daughter's college, where the relevant words were adapted, and the comparisons were translated from the German: the public were read a series of Trump's comments and a similar series of Hitler's comments.  None of those tested could tell the difference.  

Putin already saw Trump as a potential puppet.  That was before he said he did not believe in the West getting/being involved in the Syrian conflict.  Experienced politicians have trouble in understanding Putin, this leaves no hope.

I believe at least one of his companies has been dogged by bankruptcy. 

His entire campaign was composed of aggression, xenophobia, impossible promises, evasion and blame-shifting.  I can't believe anyone was stupid enough to fall for all that.  It has certainly diminished America in my eyes.  It seems that now he is in power he will tone down what was promised, but even diluted that is scary, inhumane and, frankly, embarrassing. 

I have a very good imagination.  So, no prizes for working out where my visioning went.  
                                                                                                                                           I don't sleep so well now.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Proposed bill turns protesting into a felony

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...-into-a-felony

Trump Supporter Cites Japanese Internment As ‘Precedent’ For Muslim Registry

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...1nx3vge8us1yvi
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Trump names retired General Michael Flynn as National Security Advisor....

I sense trouble...
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Welcome to the crowd, I was scared to death when a Community Organizer, with only a law degree and 2.5 years as a U.S. Senator became our President. Gee do I need to spell it out Obama. So don't cry wolf until you know there is a wolf because no one will listen or care about what you say in the future.

Give Trump a chance to govern it has been one week and people are going off the deep end for no reason! What people say in a campaign is totally different than what they do just look at Obama.
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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Welcome to the crowd, I was scared to death when a Community Organizer, with only a law degree and 2.5 years as a U.S. Senator became our President. Gee do I need to spell it out Obama. So don't cry wolf until you know there is a wolf because no one will listen or care about what you say in the future.

Give Trump a chance to govern it has been one week and people are going off the deep end for no reason! What people say in a campaign is totally different than what they do just look at Obama.

I wasn't scared to death, but I was concerned.  Pres. Obama had a pretty thin resume, but he had a good brain coming in and some competent people around him (I know one of them).  He's done a fine job, and much of that is from the quality of advice he was given at the beginning.   The Pentagon nicknamed him "No Drama Obama," and he's lived up to it.

Trump has Ivanka and Kushner.  He sacked his best advisor (Christie) and is surrounding himself with yes-men and fawning sycophants. 

I'm particularly alarmed at the selection of Gen. Mike Flynn as National Security Advisor, I don't think we want to live in a country with Muslim registries.  


Give him a chance?  With selections like Bannon etc., I'm not feeling that generous.  
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A view from the Baltics:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38014997

Wall mural shows Donald Trump locked in embrace with Russian President Vladimir Putin
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I think countries will test Trump. When Putin can make the US fight a war against IS under (a sort of) Russian supervision that would save Russia a lot of costs. 

North Korea always is hard to predict. One major player stays in the background but has a clear plan (and a lot of cards in its hands) :China. For the moment China is "best friends"with Russia and Iran. China is the energy-buyer; Iran and Russia sell energy. 

There are lots of countries that want to sell energy to China. Also China wants to get more independent. China is willing to cooperate with Russia and Iran under Chinese conditions for Chinese goals. 

The "New Silk Road" is meant to make the Chinese economy grow further. China has a housing bubble, owns a lot of debt-papers-also from the US. China wants "to rule" south-east Asia (more than the South China Sea-they want to be the most important trade dealer in Asia). 

When other countries make China a better offer than Russia and Iran make at present the Russia-Iran-China coalition-united against Obama-may not last that long. 

Trump wants to make the US more independent in energyneeds. Saudi Arabia, Gulf states (allready not happy with better US-Israel relations; Russia was gaining ground in Israel) will need other buyers for oil, face decrease in income. 

Basicly: Putin may be very bussy in the Middle East and keeping China happy. Putin wants better relations with Europe. He will try to use Trump for his goals but the US may not be priority number one for Putin. (The Syria-war is to expensive for Russia. One of the reasons why the west/gulf states keep supporting "rebels" is that it weakens Russia (and this also explains why China is limiting its role in the Middle East). Russia can not continu the war in Syria for years-they need a (Russian) victory. And if that means they have to "sell" Assad for Trump/US support they proberbly will dump Assad to replace him with a pro-Russian puppet.)

Trump needs to set goals to archive them. Otherwise other countries that do know what they want will go for their goals. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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For the Ukraine time is on the Russian side. The US under Trump looks like less interested in putting a lot of money in the corrupt Kiev-regime. The Minsk-agreements are a European initiative. Both France and Germany have elections in 2017 with parties expected to play a major role to become winners that are "anti"EU. So they also will not support the Kiev-regime. 

Expension of NATO and EU ware the mean reasons for the Maidan-coup. Ukraine itself is broke, bankrupt. 

A "peace agreement" proberbly will mean "new elections" in wich Russia will regain influence. Both the EU and US do not pay endlessly for a regime that is that much disliked and fail to deliver. 

China may want to increase its role, maybe buying Ukrainian companies/energy/ports. 

When Trump decides not to risk major wars for "Syrian rebels", Wahabi-kings, and Ukrainian nazi's I think the world becomes a better place. There are better ways for the US to keep influence around the globe. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and some other "western allies" may do more damage than some "enemies" do.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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As a point of interest, or possibly an omen, The day we found out that Trump had won (Wednesday 9 Nov.) was the anniversary of kristallnacht.
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Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

For the Ukraine time is on the Russian side. The US under Trump looks like less interested in putting a lot of money in the corrupt Kiev-regime. The Minsk-agreements are a European initiative. Both France and Germany have elections in 2017 with parties expected to play a major role to become winners that are "anti"EU. So they also will not support the Kiev-regime. 

Expension of NATO and EU ware the mean reasons for the Maidan-coup. Ukraine itself is broke, bankrupt. 

A "peace agreement" proberbly will mean "new elections" in wich Russia will regain influence. Both the EU and US do not pay endlessly for a regime that is that much disliked and fail to deliver. 

China may want to increase its role, maybe buying Ukrainian companies/energy/ports. 

When Trump decides not to risk major wars for "Syrian rebels", Wahabi-kings, and Ukrainian nazi's I think the world becomes a better place. There are better ways for the US to keep influence around the globe. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and some other "western allies" may do more damage than some "enemies" do.

Thanks, Dutch Josh!  As always, your European perspective is very much appreciated.  

Since Trump is appointing "strong men" advisors (Tea Party to CIA, Flynn to National Security etc.), I'm expecting this group to roll over and play dead whenever Putin pulls the chain.  

A massive military incursion into Ukraine under the pretext of "defending" Russian-speaking citizens seems likely.  Resistance would likely be token in the face of Russian armor, as it was in the Prague Spring. 

An all-out invasion of the NATO Baltic seems less likely, but possible if Trump truly wants to push the alliance and see what happens.  

I'm not sure what China may planning, but they certainly will have some inauguration day gift for Trump. 
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